Yes, and many short term’ers that need/want instant gratification.
Product of the times, perhaps? Financial ADD?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Product of the times, perhaps? Financial ADD?
Motor Mouth
Member
There's a stealth aspect to this BD presentation. The build up. The focus on (broadly stated) infrastructure and future manufacturing/production/market share gains. It's almost like giving anyone who cares to unpack the collective meaning of the information a 10 day head start. There will be blood in the streets tomorrow, but only if you sell. Buyers will be the kings of the future. Not sure whether to give Elon and crew credit for this foresight or just appreciate that it's just going to be the way it works out. We truly have seen the future.
One of the Li circles is approximately where Piedmont’s Lithium Project is in North Carolina,
powertoold
Active Member
The SP going down is partly Tesla’s fault. They tend to have these presentations 1-2 years before the tech has fully developed. They kinda need to sandbag their tech innovations as well.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Us true ants think different, and some humans have quit reading (blocked) us. But then I have blocked some too.
And I often try to give an ant's view to help those with fewer legs understand the world...
First about Model S with Plaid not being driven on stage...
If I was doing a redo of the Model S Plaid I would not be able to bring a finished product on stage today either... So those hoping for a redo are likely going to get a very different looking Model S in 15 months.
But my big take on the information provided at Battery Day was,
"We got nothing yet. But in one, no two, no three years, Yeah Three years we will be ruling the world."
"Batteries will be free in 3 years."
"Batteries will only need to be charged once every million miles."
And the most amazing of all...
"Batteries will be invisible because they will be the frame of the car."
In all seriousness I was gobsmacked after a couple of the reveals about battery improvements. And then it all started going terrible wrong when they started talking about how they don't have anything finalized. EVERY single improvement was represented as "almost."
Too close to Nikola's Mr Milton.
Now, was this Elon being too cute about worrying about "osborning" (anyone else getting tired of hearing someone explain the osbourne effect?), and pushing the timeline out there way past it will be? I hope so, but on wednesday I don't expect a warm and fuzzy day. I suspect Investors won't sell, but the number of shares in the hands of traders is huge, and those shares are going to get dumped.
I also expect 150,000+ in deliveries for Q3 to be the stimulus to bring us back to $430. For a couple of weeks it is going to smell.
And I often try to give an ant's view to help those with fewer legs understand the world...
First about Model S with Plaid not being driven on stage...
If I was doing a redo of the Model S Plaid I would not be able to bring a finished product on stage today either... So those hoping for a redo are likely going to get a very different looking Model S in 15 months.
But my big take on the information provided at Battery Day was,
"We got nothing yet. But in one, no two, no three years, Yeah Three years we will be ruling the world."
"Batteries will be free in 3 years."
"Batteries will only need to be charged once every million miles."
And the most amazing of all...
"Batteries will be invisible because they will be the frame of the car."
In all seriousness I was gobsmacked after a couple of the reveals about battery improvements. And then it all started going terrible wrong when they started talking about how they don't have anything finalized. EVERY single improvement was represented as "almost."
Too close to Nikola's Mr Milton.
Now, was this Elon being too cute about worrying about "osborning" (anyone else getting tired of hearing someone explain the osbourne effect?), and pushing the timeline out there way past it will be? I hope so, but on wednesday I don't expect a warm and fuzzy day. I suspect Investors won't sell, but the number of shares in the hands of traders is huge, and those shares are going to get dumped.
I also expect 150,000+ in deliveries for Q3 to be the stimulus to bring us back to $430. For a couple of weeks it is going to smell.
lafrisbee
Active Member
IF Tesla does have a deal with Piedmont Lithium I will stop believing Elon is open and honest. It was made clear that the lithium in Nevada is more than enough for TSLA for many years to come. AND they told us they have the option to mine 10,000 acres. And they made it a point to tell us about how little environmental impact it would have on the desert.
And that having the material close to the battery plant is a significant advantage.
Did you go into the options market fun house and come out without a teddy bear?
You might get your wish tomorrow. Just browsing my twitter feed and there’s a lot of shorties spreading all kinds of FUD and misinformation about Elon and battery day.
For people looking to deploy their dry powder I suggest you wait and see what transpires during regular market hours. We might see a big bear raid based on the sentiment I’m seeing. I’d be curious to see what kind of analyst notes come out. Know the key support levels(lower BB could be a target) and adjust your bids accordingly. Cheers.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Did he say anything about how soon it would be ready to use that Nevada lithium at scale? Because I missed that part...
Analyst notes are going to be key, but I still predict that tomorrow will not be good day for holding TSLA. If we get some solid upgrades and notes maybe tomorrow won't be so bad.
I'm a long so as much as it will pain me to watch the initial selloff, I will take solace in the fact that what Tesla laid out today is game changing. Even though it is not immediate, 2-3 years is still a rather short amount of time in the tech world and like others have stated, the competition should be very concerned as it looks like Tesla just leapt a few years ahead, and they were already way out in front.
When I saw those numbers, my jaw hit the floor.
True, Elon is no showman but can you imagine another CEO hanging up there with the actual engineers and having the ability to understand all of that? Jobs would not and did not understand a lot of the things his engineers came up with, but he was able to relate it to the common person very well, that was his strength, Elon's strength lies elsewhere and that is just the way it is.
It's really great to see how treats it's engineers, in other firms they would never let them take center stage, Tesla revels in their talent and it will draw talent to the company. While it's true that Tesla's production lacks the polish of Apple's, the substance was considerable.
Cheers to the longs.
I'm a long so as much as it will pain me to watch the initial selloff, I will take solace in the fact that what Tesla laid out today is game changing. Even though it is not immediate, 2-3 years is still a rather short amount of time in the tech world and like others have stated, the competition should be very concerned as it looks like Tesla just leapt a few years ahead, and they were already way out in front.
When I saw those numbers, my jaw hit the floor.
True, Elon is no showman but can you imagine another CEO hanging up there with the actual engineers and having the ability to understand all of that? Jobs would not and did not understand a lot of the things his engineers came up with, but he was able to relate it to the common person very well, that was his strength, Elon's strength lies elsewhere and that is just the way it is.
It's really great to see how treats it's engineers, in other firms they would never let them take center stage, Tesla revels in their talent and it will draw talent to the company. While it's true that Tesla's production lacks the polish of Apple's, the substance was considerable.
Cheers to the longs.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I was impressed with most of what was presented. Some expected and some not even considered. The only disappointments for me were the struggle they still seem to be having with scaling the DBE and the delay of the Plaid S.
For those expecting a completely different looking Plaid S, when has Tesla ever delivered a completely different vehicle than the one shown on an order page?
For those expecting a completely different looking Plaid S, when has Tesla ever delivered a completely different vehicle than the one shown on an order page?
Like many others, I was anticipating more news that would be more immediate.
Reminds me of last year when Tesla crashed down to the 200s and below. Those of us who understood the potential did very well by buying when Tesla was undervalued.
Judging from the market reaction today, it appears most "investors" still do not understand Musk or Tesla. In a year or two the plans announced today will have a tremendous impact. Hopefully, analysts would be more appreciative, but we'll see what they say in coming days.
If TSLA crashes badly because short sighted investors can't wait 1-2 years - that's what holding stocks and buying LEAPS are for.
Reminds me of last year when Tesla crashed down to the 200s and below. Those of us who understood the potential did very well by buying when Tesla was undervalued.
Judging from the market reaction today, it appears most "investors" still do not understand Musk or Tesla. In a year or two the plans announced today will have a tremendous impact. Hopefully, analysts would be more appreciative, but we'll see what they say in coming days.
If TSLA crashes badly because short sighted investors can't wait 1-2 years - that's what holding stocks and buying LEAPS are for.
I am just re watching everything again and just like a good Christopher Nolan's movie, your brain gets blown twice as hard the second time.
This week Tesla stock might be a mess, but 1 Trillion dollar company secured.
JonathanDandrea
Member
They said there is enough lithium in Nevada not the acreage they acquired, I’m sure they will develop or contract as many sources as possible which is prudent
During this trying times for the weak longs 
rolleyes, I suggest a light read: Zero to One by Thiel.
It will help you understand what is happening.
Word of the day is still “sandbagging”.
Never show all your cards. This people are not stupid, they know exactly what they are doing and why.
enjoy the ride!
rolleyes, I suggest a light read: Zero to One by Thiel. It will help you understand what is happening.
Word of the day is still “sandbagging”.
Never show all your cards. This people are not stupid, they know exactly what they are doing and why.
enjoy the ride!
Anyone remembers the 5Bs Tesla raised in 2 weeks ago? Using the $5B, how many GWHs/yr can be produced using the new numbers Elon presented today?
larmor
Active Member
And with these new numbers, imagine the banks lining up to fund new factories...
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1308562698137821184?s=21
Elon keeps referring to this as the most challenging year ever. Why is this? COVID?
Elon keeps referring to this as the most challenging year ever. Why is this? COVID?
My biggest concern that arose out of the presentation was Elon's comments during the "powder into film" video on the dry electrode process after Drew was being over the top positive. Elon replied "there's still a lot of work to do, I wouldn't say this is completely in the bag" when referring to going from Maxwell's proof of concept to scaling volume production of the dry electrode process. I sensed concern from Elon as so much hinges on what many assume is already "in the bag". He followed those comments up with “To be clear, I would like to not say that right now it’s just totally working. It's close to working, but it's not even now at the pilot plant level. It is close to working. All I can think it's fair to say probably it does work, but with not a good … not a high yield.”
Thoughts/Comments?
Thoughts/Comments?
My thoughts on Battery Day:
I continue to be thoroughly impressed by the Tesla team. Drew and the other engineers are freaking rock stars. Super smart and motivated. I much prefer this type of presentation over the stupid PR stuff we saw from Cadillac and Lucid recently. And even if I ended up in a coma for the next 5 years, I'd sleep peacefully knowing the company is being pushed forward by the likes of Elon, Drew, and engineers like this. It almost makes me lose motivation to follow Tesla so closely, because these people are going to crush it over the next 5, 10, 15 years. I don't even feel like I need to pay attention to what's going on anymore.
As of today, even putting aside autonomy, Tesla already has a large lead in batteries, powertrain, software, engineering, manufacturing, etc. Battery Day made it clear that Tesla has some of the smartest people in the world thinking about and working hard on continuously improving every single piece of the entire battery supply chain, and probably the rest of the business as well. The pace of innovation and the numbers quoted seem absolutely absurd. I get the feeling that these advancements in Tesla's battery supply chain will, over the next 3-10 years, have a similar effect on Tesla in the battery space as the Starship architecture will have on SpaceX in the space industry. Basically it will make everybody else secondary, if not obsolete.
Everybody keeps saying Tesla can't do it alone, and Tesla keeps saying it hopes others will join it, but seriously, who can? No automotive company has been able to even come close to keeping pace with Tesla over the last decade, and now that Tesla is increasing its pace how will the gap anything but widen? I'm less familiar with the Panasonic's, LG Chem's, and CATL's of the world, but I'm skeptical that any of them have the resources, talent, leadership, and drive to keep up with Tesla's increasing pace of innovation.
And maybe that's the biggest take-away for me from Battery Day. Tesla's not just getting further ahead, it's increasing the rate at which it's getting ahead of the competition. Many will likely not understand this, but in order to survive Tesla's competitors don't just have to keep up with Tesla's innovations, they have to keep up with Tesla's pace of innovation. They don't just have to attract the right talent and spend money on the right R&D, they have to fundamentally change how their companies operate in order to drastically change their pace of innovation, or else they will get left behind.
I don't think many, if any, will be able to accomplish this on a scale similar to Tesla, so I expect we'll see a lot of casualties, and I think we should hope that Tesla can scale beyond 3 TWh after 2030, and perhaps achieve 10 or 20TWh by 2035, because I doubt anybody else is going to come anywhere close to those numbers. I'd love to be proven wrong by a Panasonic, LG Chem, or CATL Battery Day, but I'll see it when I believe it.
I continue to be thoroughly impressed by the Tesla team. Drew and the other engineers are freaking rock stars. Super smart and motivated. I much prefer this type of presentation over the stupid PR stuff we saw from Cadillac and Lucid recently. And even if I ended up in a coma for the next 5 years, I'd sleep peacefully knowing the company is being pushed forward by the likes of Elon, Drew, and engineers like this. It almost makes me lose motivation to follow Tesla so closely, because these people are going to crush it over the next 5, 10, 15 years. I don't even feel like I need to pay attention to what's going on anymore.
As of today, even putting aside autonomy, Tesla already has a large lead in batteries, powertrain, software, engineering, manufacturing, etc. Battery Day made it clear that Tesla has some of the smartest people in the world thinking about and working hard on continuously improving every single piece of the entire battery supply chain, and probably the rest of the business as well. The pace of innovation and the numbers quoted seem absolutely absurd. I get the feeling that these advancements in Tesla's battery supply chain will, over the next 3-10 years, have a similar effect on Tesla in the battery space as the Starship architecture will have on SpaceX in the space industry. Basically it will make everybody else secondary, if not obsolete.
Everybody keeps saying Tesla can't do it alone, and Tesla keeps saying it hopes others will join it, but seriously, who can? No automotive company has been able to even come close to keeping pace with Tesla over the last decade, and now that Tesla is increasing its pace how will the gap anything but widen? I'm less familiar with the Panasonic's, LG Chem's, and CATL's of the world, but I'm skeptical that any of them have the resources, talent, leadership, and drive to keep up with Tesla's increasing pace of innovation.
And maybe that's the biggest take-away for me from Battery Day. Tesla's not just getting further ahead, it's increasing the rate at which it's getting ahead of the competition. Many will likely not understand this, but in order to survive Tesla's competitors don't just have to keep up with Tesla's innovations, they have to keep up with Tesla's pace of innovation. They don't just have to attract the right talent and spend money on the right R&D, they have to fundamentally change how their companies operate in order to drastically change their pace of innovation, or else they will get left behind.
I don't think many, if any, will be able to accomplish this on a scale similar to Tesla, so I expect we'll see a lot of casualties, and I think we should hope that Tesla can scale beyond 3 TWh after 2030, and perhaps achieve 10 or 20TWh by 2035, because I doubt anybody else is going to come anywhere close to those numbers. I'd love to be proven wrong by a Panasonic, LG Chem, or CATL Battery Day, but I'll see it when I believe it.
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