Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

I still don't see how you can drive from $368 to $392 in a blink, but on fairly low volume. Certainly that's TSLA's signature move, having zero sellers when anyone show up to buy, but it's confusing to me.

Does this mean essentially TSLA had been pushed down artificially on heavier volume while no "real" transactions were taking place?

Not to start this debate again, but maxpain for tomorrow is 405.

 

[cusetownusa]

Not to start this debate again, but maxpain for tomorrow is 405.

Pardon my stupidity...new to this thread. What does maxpain at 405 mean?

 

[corduroy]

buy whatever you can under 400 no matter the price and then forget about it for years.

This is pretty much my strategy as well.

 

[Sofie]

Okay so we had the split done, now the battery day done and we only $100 up from split date announcement
this wasnt that good what most people expected.
Q3 numbers? Meh I think another drop will follow again
The reverse logical is happening lately

Then, sell. I’d like to buy your shares.

 

[computerchuck]

 

[Artful Dodger]

And with that, they would sell very few Model 3s for 2 years. It would potentially bankrupt them.

Yeah, and he's floating adift in his own fact-free dream world too.

Fremont receives about 5,000 tones of finished Bty Packs from Giga Neva PER WEEK.

But we'll just ignore the effort, capital investment, and contractual obligations that makes that possible.

And then ASSume the unfinished Pilot Plant in Fremont will have priority for Model 3/Y...

Sometimes, a Picard 'facepalm' emoji just is not enough.

Cheers!

 

[Cherry Wine]

It's still wild to me to think about these price swings in pre-split terms. Today's low-to-high would have been ~$235 pre-split.

 

[Sofie]

Seriously, I feel so lucky to have the chance to buy TSLA at -10% after listening to the incredible advancement in the 3 years to come with battery day technology

Oh I know! After that presentation, goodness, I realized why I feel in love with Tesla in the first place! Amazing, brilliant company!

 

[Singuy]

It's still wild to me to think about these price swings in pre-split terms. Today's low-to-high would have been ~$235 pre-split.

Right? Price swing post split I thought would slow by a factor of 5. No it pretty much stayed the same..lol.

 

[woodisgood]

Pardon my stupidity...new to this thread. What does maxpain at 405 mean?

Maxpain is the stock price at which the most puts and most calls expire worthless at a given expiration (Fridays). It’s the price at which the “house wins” the most.

With TSLA, which has an oversized options market, maxpain seems to be particularly magnetic.

 

[joh01652]

We're talking 2 different things here. Tesla the car company has competition from the high end market (Porsche and Lucid if it ever comes to production) and general market from VW, Renault, Kia, Hyundai, etc.). There are also privately funded research companies working very hard on the future of batteries which may or may not be able to leapfrog Tesla's considerable advances. Suggesting Tesla is alone in the space is talking with blinders on. If you talk about Tesla the company intent on replacing polluting energies with electric solutions, there I agree. That's why the share price is so much higher than regular car companies, not because Tesla cars are so much better than other cars.

You are correct when you say there are other car companies working on EVs. And you are right that there are many other companies working on batteries. The major point you are missing in your argument is that Tesla has been working on EVs/batteries (and ONLY EVs/batteries) since 2008--other auto companies just started thinking about EVs, and not very seriously; they dabble in EVs because of CAFE standards and other governmental compliance regulations that incentivize them to develop EV tech (and don't incentivize them very well, EVs are generally money-losers for the legacy auto companies). Tesla also has SCALE--no other auto company on Earth at this time has no where near the scale and potential to scale like Tesla on so many fronts.

You lump legacy auto companies with Tesla/EVs--they are really nothing alike, and that's where a lot of confusion comes from not just lay people, but also investment institutions and the mainstream media. Sure, they ICE vehicles have four wheels, doors, and suspension, but that's about where the similarities end. Tesla vehicles are much more like iPhones than automobiles, so the engineers, factories, manufacturing processes, supply chains, etc, don't overlap much. Being great at making ICE vehicles in no way equates to making great EVs.

Lucid, as much as I wish them the best, make nothing at scale, and what they have coming out next year starts at $150K or something like that. That is not really significant competition when you consider Tesla's lead in autonomy, battery storage, powertrain efficiency/control, charging network, grid management, etc. Maybe Lucid will be huge, maybe they won't--only time will tell. Like Musk says, mass manufacturing is very very difficult--Lucid has many years to go before they'll be able to scale similar to Tesla.

The reason why Tesla's SP is so much higher than the other auto companies is because they have such a MASSIVE head start in not just the EV space, but in so many other spaces, and with their small, nimble size, coupled with their extraordinary pace of innovation and the fact that they attract the best engineering talent in the world, their lead looks unassailable to people who have been paying attention for the past few years (it's often said Tesla is like multiple start-ups in one company). Furthermore, legacy auto has billions of dollars of locked up capital dedicated to old outdated technology that either nobody wants, or that is being banned by governments the world over; that unproductive capital will soon turn into stranded assets that weigh on balance sheets.

Tesla is perfectly positioned for the future, both for consumer tastes and government regulations. Other legacy ICE manufacturers, not at all. Many will go bankrupt in the coming decade. Tesla's share price is high for very good reasons.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If Tesla was unionized, every time they set up a new initiative, or invented a new automated process, the union would oppose it, and Tesla would have been bankrupt many years ago. Hence all heavily unionized companies such as GM can do is make gestures, say stuff and buy stakes in fraudulent companies such as Nikola. Meanwhile everyone as Tesla is working their ass off to make the world a better place

Stock Information | General Motors Company

In March 2015, our Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock by the end of 2016. Effective January 2016, our Board of Directors increased the authorization to repurchase up to an additional $4.0 billion of our common stock (or an aggregate total of $9.0 billion) by the end of 2017. Effective January 2017, our Board of Directors increased the authorization to repurchase up to an additional $5.0 billion of our common stock (or aggregate total of $14.0 billion) at the discretion of management.

$10.7B in shares repurchased.

Divdends and share buybacks were suspended in April

GM is suspending its dividend and share repurchases - CNN

New York (CNN Business)General Motors is suspending its dividend and share repurchases. The automaker is trying to preserve cash while auto sales are plunging.
"Fortifying our cash position and strengthening our balance sheet will position the company to create value for all our stakeholders through this cycle," said Chief Financial Officer Dhivya Suryadevara.

It's always the unions' fault.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I still don't see how you can drive from $368 to $392 in a blink, but on fairly low volume. Certainly that's TSLA's signature move, having zero sellers when anyone show up to buy, but it's confusing to me.

Does this mean essentially TSLA had been pushed down artificially on heavier volume while no "real" transactions were taking place?

Or maybe the buyers and sellers are the same people, taking free money from weak longs....

 

[bkp_duke]

Stock Information | General Motors Company


$10.7B in shares repurchased.

Divdends and share buybacks were suspended in April

GM is suspending its dividend and share repurchases - CNN



It's always the unions' fault.

Always bugged me that GM was allowed to do share buybacks . . . . before they paid off their bailout from the financial crisis. Don't they still owe some of that money to the public?

 

[LN1_Casey]

My guess is that it's A) buyers nomming on the low shares, and also B) MM's pushing towards a Max Pain close, which sits at about 405 when I checked earlier.

Hmm, seems sticky towards 400 for some reason....

 

[bkp_duke]

Just moved my SIMPLE IRA (limited investment options) into my Trad IRA.

Now I have to wait a day for the funds to clear, then another day for the sale of the mutual funds.

Knowing my luck, by the time I get the dry powder ready, this great buying opportunities will be past.

 

[humbaba]

Starting to feel anxiety as my $342 order at low BB won’t go through

I've got an order there as well, but just a tad higher to improve the odds of execution. At least, that was the plan

I gotta say, though, that the shorts seem to have largely lost their power over $TSLA. I mean, $TSLA remains extremely volatile but these swings, while very large, are to the high side. It was only back in August that it was <$300/share and even with the last major dip IIRC even outside of market hours it couldn't breach $300.

But if the shorts do somehow manage to really bust $TSLA down like they did in 2019 I will be backing up the truck. I just don't see it happening, even with the volatility.

 

[mekberg]

I still don't see how you can drive from $368 to $392 in a blink, but on fairly low volume. Certainly that's TSLA's signature move, having zero sellers when anyone show up to buy, but it's confusing to me.

Does this mean essentially TSLA had been pushed down artificially on heavier volume while no "real" transactions were taking place?

In my opinion: buy the rumor, sell the news speculators.

Long-term investors have even more, not less, conviction after battery day.

 

[gene]

You are missing out on the ability to lock it autopilot price, which might or is even likely to make that model y actually appreciate in value. Also resale value is quite good on them. I'm taking delivery of one soon mostly because of those two reasons. Well, and it'd be nice to drive it until the truck shows up.

I bought the Model Y because my Model 3 trunk just could not fit equipment that I have to carry. As soon as Cybertruck comes I'll sell the Y. Ok, so I loose a bit of money, who cares, I've made enough on TSLA to buy what, at today's price 60 Cybertrucks for free.

 

[dgodfrey]

For some reason, I find this amusing yet comforting. When Options were invented, they had TSLA in mind.
Cheers to the longs and the gamblers.