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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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And to continue, this is considered legal and ethical because investors still have the right to purchase anywhere along the way. Hence, these clowns can make a case that it's simply an extended function of "market making". Which I guess it kind of is.

Not to justify this activity, but most people here *know* that this is going on. Otherwise, it would be illogical for there to be such a regular protest against it. So, like it or not, we can reasonably recognize it as a reality.
Not only that, but several here have made very good cases that it is a predictable reality.
I don’t believe the predictability is absolutely reliable, but it is reliable enough to occasionally act on with fairly high confidence.
Aside from the MM factor, there has been, although less now than before, predictable stock moving/manipulating actions in the media.
Putting aside the ethics of the situation, it is actually quite valuable for an investor to have predictable market factors to help guide him in his investments.
 
Meh. I have no idea how much he made today unless I do math. In this case multiplication is required and I’m too tired just thinking about it.

I would pose this question to you, though: Why does it upset you? And don’t give some canned answer like it’s cluttering up the board - unless you’ve just had thumb surgery it’s super quick and easy to scroll. There’s a deeper reason why people talking about personal wealth tweaks you. That’s what you might want to discover about yourself and change accordingly - or not if you don’t mind being irritated.

First of all, it does not upset me. I don't care. I was curious as of the nature of this behavior.

Me thinks - In rare occasions this might bite your back somehow. If this is even a remote possibility, why expose yourself???
 
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Here's how I'm thinking about it.

Tesla claims world needs 20 TWh annual capacity, 135 Reno GFs.

Under current tech, this would cost $2T. Thus, $100M per GWh annual capacity.

At 69% reduction from Tesla's announced improvements, this becomes $31M/GWh/yr.

So Tesla wants to build out 100GWh gmfor 2022. This could be just a $3.1B investment.

Terafactory Texas should be around $31B, so the first 100GWh is just 10% of nameplate. $5B cash should get this started.

Here's my simple model for Tesla's Battery Master Plan v.3
  • The pilot plant is a proof-of-function prototype with a single line @ 10GWh/yr
  • Tesla needs to build 9 additional Bty lines per year, each with 10GWh/yr capacity
  • This gets us to 100GWh capacity in 2022, and ~3,000 by about 2029
  • Note: if 3rd parties are unwilling/unable Tesla can build out 20 TWh/yr in 12 yrs
BtyMasterPlan_v3.png


Now we get to the unstated consequence of Battery Day: Tesla MUST build a tertiary layer of production to build the machines that equip the Bty Cell factories.

Tesla MUST add 9 new such Bty lines (per chart above) to achieve the arithmetic growth required by their stated goals.

It might be practical to build a single such Meta-Factory, but given the scale required (potentially ~180 lines over 12 years), I think its more practical to build THREE such Meta-Factories (one each in China, Germany, and USA).

Each of these MTBTMs (Machines-that-build-the-Machine) would each have to be sized to produce 60 bty lines over 12 years, or about 5 each per year.

Think of these MTBTMs as Grohmann clones, but specialized for battery cells.

Does anybody know where (and from whom) Coca-cola Bottlers buy there production equipment? That's the scale of manufacturing we are discussing right now.

Cheers!
 
Generally Elon speaks about run rate for ramp ups. So my take is that around the end of next year Kato production will reach a 10 GWh/yr run rate. They wouldn't have produced a total of 10 GWh by then.

I worded poorly and that's what I meant. It would seem to me that the Kato Rd line is designed to build all the S/X needs with room to spare. Even as a pilot line, that is the first switch over of existing vehicles. Berlin/Austin for new.
 
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I worded poorly and that's what I meant. It would seem to me that the Kato Rd line is designed to build all the S/X needs with room to spare. Even as a pilot line, that is the first switch over of existing vehicles. Berlin/Austin for new.

Highly unlikely for SEXY cars. It would most probably entail re-engineering of the middle chassis sections of these vehicles. Which would also mean weeks of re-tooling and no cars coming off the line.

Semi and CT are first candidates IMO.
 
TSLA's 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) has been supportive for quite some time. Intra-day today TSLA slipped under. but closed nicely above. That's encouraging. The close is what's important in technical analysis; intraday and outside regular hours can be seen as just noise.
Yeah if macros hold I see Tesla going past 500 in the next few weeks. That battery day presentation was absolutely fire! I have never seen a road map that not only cement any kind of lead but presented the most cost effective and fastest money printer ever created. I used to put 1.5 Trillion dollar valuation at some what 30-50%, now it's like 99%.
 
Tesla Stock Will Surge 27% to $500, According to This Analyst
Tesla Stock Will Surge 27% to $500, According to This Analyst | The Motley Fool

Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) new battery technology promises to accelerate the growth of the electric-vehicle market and widen its lead over its rivals.

So says Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner. On Wednesday, Rosner raised his rating from Tesla's shares from hold to buy and boosted his price forecast from $400 to $500. His new target represents potential gains for shareholders of roughly 27% from the stock's current price near $395.