Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, bought a 2/10 c450 towards the close for shits'n'giggles

 

[computerchuck]

In the last second someone looks to be trying to piss into the cheerios and push the price up.

...or piss on your leg and tell you it's raining

 

[Artful Dodger]

the DBE compacts and speeds-up the manufacturing, reduces Capex setting up the Iines, less operational waste, etc., but doesn't add to the cell performance, or if it does, this wasn't stated.

We know this to be true for the DBE process from information previously disclosed by Maxwell Technologies. The key performance benefit is the ability to create thicker electrode layers with the same ion conductivity as those achieved with the existing wet slurry process.

Maxwell Technology already identified a 25% energy density improvement (from 250 wh/kg to 300 wh/kg) just with the 1st gen of their DBE process (this is Maxwell's Slide 10 from the Needham Conference, Jan 2019):

Tesla worked with Maxwell for years verifying the DBE process before buying the company. IMHO, "calendaring" (essentially what the DBE process does) isn't that hard (click image below to download the PDF from PowerSourceConference.com):



Imma call it now: Elon is sandbagging it. Telsa will dominate batteries.

Cheers!

 

[humbaba]

after market....

If someone wants a counter example where the market makers don't get what they want -- well, look at $NKLA

There are quite some puts that are in the money with stock at <$20 and max pain at $26. Interestingly, both calls and puts have spikes at $20, but as $NKLA failed to even break $20 by close the puts have clearly won the day.

caveat: the option information is from yesterday's close and today's action may have shifted the balance toward $20 for all I know.

 

[mrmage]

I don't often buy weekly calls, but next week's expiring calls are setting up as a great risk:benefit proposition:

1. Macros are up significantly more than TSLA would normally be on such a day - likely due to max pain capping at 400-405.
2. There is a decent chance that the quarterly delivery report will come out next Friday before open and I don't think the IV (which has been dropping) currently reflects the % chance of that happening. The options are trading at lower premiums than I think they should be. October 9 calls (450 and 500) are trading at 2.8x and 4.5x October 2 calls, respectively.
3. "Moon Monday" seems to be a thing (thanks @Papafox for another great TSLA meme) and I expect a rise Monday unless the macros don't cooperate.

Oct 2 calls at $450 (currently at 4.10) and $500 (currently at $0.85) are my targets, and I plan to pick up 25 of the former and 50 of the latter. I'm going to wait until 15 mins before close as there may be a late-day rise and I want to get them before that.

I bought calendar spreads the past couple weeks for Oct 2 / Oct 16, at strikes from 450, 470, 500, and 540.

I just discovered that SP 420 is the breakeven for these. I'm not superstitious though. Throwing salt over my shoulder daily should ward off evil spirits. Looking forward to another wild week in TSLA-world and solid P&D numbers.

 

[Alphacrux]

Tesla adding to land holdings for Austin factory

Continuing at full speed with development of its electric vehicle assembly plant in southeastern Travis County, Tesla recently purchased 381 acres adjacent to its existing 2,100-acre site at Harold Green Road and Texas 130, deed records show.

Tesla also is believed to be pursuing additional land purchases in Southeast Austin along the Texas 130 corridor, according to local real estate developers knowledgeable about the area.

Local developer Karl Koebel, a principal with Marketplace Real Estate Group, said Tesla’s newly purchased 381 acres, which are along Gilbert Road and just northeast of its 2,100-acre site, give Tesla not only more land, but additional access to its property, since Gilbert Road intersects with FM 969.

“Being able to tie into (969) gives them multiple points of access” to primary roads, which along with 969 include Harold Green Road and the Texas 130 frontage road, Koebel said.

 

[Khamul]

I just found an article on Barrons that says:

"Until recently, FactSet—an aggregator of Wall Street forecasts—listed an estimate of 190,000 vehicles as one of the figures used to produce its consensus numbers. That was skewing the average a little, but the estimate vanished this week. Removing the 190,000 figure dropped the average estimate by about 3,000 vehicles.

Wall Streets expects the company will deliver about 141,000 cars during the third quarter. Estimates range from 123,000 to 161,000."

I'm glad to see that 190.000 was apparently an error and not an attempt to manipulate.

 

[Krugerrand]

Highly recommend this.
There are some especially good insights @13:58 with Vivas Kumar who used to work at Tesla.

Honestly, I’m tired of people thinking they know more. The whole ‘I have questions because I don’t understand how they can possibly do what they say they are going to do’ is a yawnfest for me.

I’ve heard all these concerns and questions before multiple times. Ie., Tesla says we’ll build our own battery factory and everyone else spews all the reasons it can’t or won’t happen. Tesla says it’s going to do a Supercharger Network, omg! can’t be done. Tesla says it’s going to have FSD. Hell no, that’s 100 years away if ever. Now Tesla says we’re going to make our own cells, tells how they’re going to do it and out come the all these carebear experts with ‘questions’.

I don’t care who you are, be prepared to eat your hat. I also don’t care if they miss the timeline. This is happening folks, regardless what you think.

 

[larmor]

Tesla adding to land holdings for Austin factory

Continuing at full speed with development of its electric vehicle assembly plant in southeastern Travis County, Tesla recently purchased 381 acres adjacent to its existing 2,100-acre site at Harold Green Road and Texas 130, deed records show.

Tesla also is believed to be pursuing additional land purchases in Southeast Austin along the Texas 130 corridor, according to local real estate developers knowledgeable about the area.

Wow that should raise alot of questions-- they just spent a whole presentation saying they have reduced the size and footprint of upcoming battery factories. Does this mean they are actually going to make alot(!!) of batteries or maybe as the market thinks, they are going to make more Costcos so they can just go local and get the batteries.

 

[ZsoZso]

Wow that should raise alot of questions-- they just spent a whole presentation saying they have reduced the size and footprint of upcoming battery factories. Does this mean they are actually going to make alot(!!) of batteries or maybe as the market thinks, they are going to make more Costcos so they can just go local and get the batteries.

Or perhaps they found some land with useful raw materials in them and setting up for local mining to feed the factory

 

[Buckminster]

Semi-Mod: it's too hard to go back and delete the political posts, but any going forward will be deleted. --ggr.

Happy to setup a non-political "politics" thread if people can agree not to discuss politics in a political way on it.

 

[AudubonB]

...
However, TSLA is now adding pages

1. Objectionable best in class product; measurable features like range, acceleration, cargo space, safety...etc
2. Objectionable best in class value; measurable from cost, margins, free cash flow
...

I object.

 

[agastya]

Seems a little short sighted and in this kind of environment when dealing with a highly vertically integrated company, I would think the best business plan is to join them vs fighting them. Because the end result is always the same, they figure out what you were providing and they will do it better and cheaper. That's just inevitable. The smart way to do business is to negotiate and innovate with them, making yourself indispensable as a partner and maybe even have a buy out opportunity. If you see the writing on the wall, then be glad that Tesla approached you first and you are willing to give them a price that they figured going inhouse is roughly the same if you were to take over that part of x, y and z.

Either way once Tesla figures it out, your company is done. And this is why sitting on fatter margins and unwilling to roll with the punches bankrupt companies.

Excellent thought - this is the only way to survive. Adapt or get eaten.

For eg: see what happens with USPS and Amazon, it for now remains a symbiotic relationship but the moment USPS says no go do you think Amazon is going to sit and wait for someone else or do their thing and build even more of their final mile routies.

 

[Christine69420]

Wow that should raise alot of questions-- they just spent a whole presentation saying they have reduced the size and footprint of upcoming battery factories. Does this mean they are actually going to make alot(!!) of batteries or maybe as the market thinks, they are going to make more Costcos so they can just go local and get the batteries.

Could be all kinds of things - a test track for the Cybertruck or more admin or design office space or another skunkworks type of lab. Or a destillery for Teslaquila?

 

[PeterJA]

My comment on the latest complaints from Montana Skeptic. He will likely delete it from SA ASAP.

I think of Montana as a small angry dog yap-yapping and trying to bite Elon's ankles as Elon leads the transformation of transportation and energy and changes the course of history from the disastrous path we've been on. Little dogs will yap nonstop for days, no matter how futile the noise. But keep it up, Montana. Maybe someday you'll earn half a footnote in the history books.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...in-germany-umm-not-fast-elon#comment-86590966​

 

[Open Interest]

What is a battery pilot line? Is it something like sourdough starter that will feed all future battery production? Or is it the first batteries that are produced at a site?

 

[Alphacrux]

Wow that should raise alot of questions-- they just spent a whole presentation saying they have reduced the size and footprint of upcoming battery factories. Does this mean they are actually going to make alot(!!) of batteries or maybe as the market thinks, they are going to make more Costcos so they can just go local and get the batteries.

Just posted more info. The additional acreage gives more access to the main site.

 

[Sofie]

Happy to setup a non-political "politics" thread if people can agree not to discuss politics in a political way on it.

That’s dangerous no matter how you say it

 

[AperiodicCoder]

Daily Roundup Preview: 25 September
Posts from 24 Sep 09:18 GMT to 25 Sep 21:11 GMT
Votes as of 25 Sep 21:14 GMT

Go here to see today's full Roundtable Roundup!

Top 25 Informative + Helpful

Spoiler: Top 25 Informative + Helpful

Author / Votes / Time (GMT)	Content Preview
JBRR 32 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 20:50	SEC.gov | SEC Charges BMW for Disclosing Inaccurate and Misleading Retail Sales Information to Bond Investors SEC Charges BMW for Disclosing Inaccurate and Misleading Retail Sales Information to Bond Investors BMW AG will pay $18 million to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission claims tha...
Khamul 30 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 11:16	Alex just wrote on twitter that " The water supply contract for Giga Berlin was approved from the local utility. Water supply is average compared to similar projects". https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1309450852189564931 That was the only major obstruction to Tesla getting the final build per...
Artful Dodger 30 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 17:21	We already have enough crumbs to make a WAG at Tesla CapEx for Bty Plants through 2022: Panasonic currently has 13 bty lines in Sparks producing 35GWh/yr in Sept they announced a $100M CapEx to add another line adding 10% more capacity that's $100M for 3.5GWh/yr or approx $28.5M/GWh/yr capacity Tes...
JBRR 23 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 9:08	Tesla Model Y Dual Motor AWD gets paid Acceleration Boost upgrade
Baumisch 22 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 5:29	Might be interesting to see how VW is looking at the future: https://www.volkswagenag.com/presen...ber/20200915_VW_Presentation_Bagschik_UBS.pdf My highlights:
ZachF 20 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 17:08	New video from Sandy expanding on Battery Day:
CLK350 18 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 10:55	ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF FUD - ANTI TESLA LIES - Post Battery Day Sep 2020 For the (historical) record - since I have taken the trouble to listen and answer a well meaning friend who's been relatively successful over the past decades, here's another example of FUD from an established normally very good f...
juanmedina 17 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 12:29	Is anyone worried about this? It seems that Factset has the analyst consensus for deliveries at 144,000 vehicles. Our friend Lora is been using that figure in her articles. If Tesla doesn't hit above that figure I can see the stock dropping hard. That figure is inline with Troy's estimate.
JBRR 15 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 15:29	Highly recommend this. There are some especially good insights @13:58 with Vivas Kumar who used to work at Tesla.
ZachF 15 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 12:12	An interesting observation on brand power: Tesla's market cap is ~$400 billion, and it spends $0 on advertising every year. GM's market cap is $42 billion and it spends $3 billion per year on advertising. (EDIT: That's what GM spends just in the US!!)
Alphacrux 14 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 20:28	Tesla adding to land holdings for Austin factory Continuing at full speed with development of its electric vehicle assembly plant in southeastern Travis County, Tesla recently purchased 381 acres adjacent to its existing 2,100-acre site at Harold Green Road and Texas 130, deed records show. Tesla ...
BlackS 14 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 22:20	From the twitter verse...applies to $TSLA also of course, i am sure that 23 # is going to be wayyyyyy higher for $TSLA: What they tell you: If you invested $100 in Apple's IPO and and held shares until today, that investment would be worth about $100,000. What they don't tell you: If you invested...
jhm 13 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 13:48	Thanks for digging into all this. It is hard to know for sure what all Tesla is including in the 20TWh cost estimate. I do believe that it is more than just the tooling that Panasonic is rolling out at $28M/GWh. Specifically, BDay presentation included processing of raw minerals and recycling. At th...
tinyrodent 12 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 14:23	Tesla Battery Day Slides 2020/09/22
Lycanthrope 12 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 6:45	Sandy on good form:
mongo 12 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 12:05	Price delta for each additional Powerpack is $78k. The first powerpack install also includes site plan, permitting, interconnection agreement, and the inverter cabinet. Subsequent units are are add ons with only the unit and additional install costs. Price points for 1,2,3 are 126k, 203k, 281.. delt...
BlackS 11 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 14:10	Tesla big battery in South Australia delivers stunning windfall profits | RenewEconomy
Roel1994 11 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 23:13	I was wondering, why does the table assume 10 GWh per line? In the presentation Drew talks about that they want to build assembly lines that have such a high speed that they can do 20 GWh per line:
Curt Renz 11 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 20:14	TSLA's 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) has been supportive for quite some time. Intra-day today TSLA slipped under. but closed nicely above. That's encouraging. The close is what's important in technical analysis; intraday and outside regular hours can be seen as just noise.
humbaba 10 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 21:37	Watching the super cut I caught the $1.20/kWh anode cost they cite. When I watched it the first time I wasn't thinking, but that is a raw dollar figure whose improvement is given as 5% cost reduction at the pack level. They list some alternative methods, the cheapest of which costs $6.60/kWh, and sa...
computerchuck 10 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 20:22	Tesla Stock Will Surge 27% to $500, According to This Analyst Tesla Stock Will Surge 27% to $500, According to This Analyst | The Motley Fool Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) new battery technology promises to accelerate the growth of the electric-vehicle market and widen its lead over its rivals. So says De...
ZachF 10 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 13:36	Somewhat OT: Employment losses by state 8/19 to 8/20: Local Area Unemployment Statistics Home Page -15.33% Massachusetts -13.82% Hawaii -12.97% Nevada -12.88% New Mexico -11.98% Rhode Island -11.16% California -10.48% Iowa -9.05% Pennsylvania -9.01% New York -8.79% Illinois -8.73% New Hampshire -7...
BlackS 9 | Link ➤ 25 Sep 14:32	On a side note: Europe: Plug-In Electric Car Sales Increased In August 2020 By 171%
Thekiwi 9 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 23:04	Some musing from this slide from the battery day presentation: - The savings don't kick in for Tesla right away, takes a few years - I wonder what each of those horizontal gridlines represent? If I was a betting man I would they were $25 increments, meaning they are at ~$130 p/KW now, and Teslas cos...
Curt Renz 9 | Link ➤ 24 Sep 18:31	Benzinga - 13 minutes ago: Ring Teams With Tesla To Enhance Security With Built-In Cameras

 

[Robocop]

Or a destillery for Teslaquila?

I think we should all pause and recognize what Tesla is really doing here.

"The majority of agave plants can't tolerate frost and only can grow as far north as USDA growing zones 8 or 9." - Some website.

Austin, TX is located in zone 8 according to this climate zone map.

A purchase of additional acreage outside the Texas Terafactory is a near certainty of an agave farm, given Tesla's recent advances in "putting the dirt back" in their lithium mine. Plus they hinted at taking cues from bottling plants during the battery day reveal, this was Elon sandbagging but still giving the TMC community a clue about their tequila bottling operation.

Adding a Teslaquila projection through 2030 in my spreadsheet, but my prediction is that Tesla will control 100% of Teslaquila production in the world by 2023.