Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SPadival]

I agree with everything here except Austin Y, which should be 4680 like Berlin. I can’t imagine Elon building a brand new factory without the new battery tech. All new construction will be focused on 4680 imo.

So the Western half of US gets the Model Ys with old 2170 cells while the Eastern Half get the new 4680 cell??

Dude! Do you want Elon to start a new civil war?

Seriously, I think parity is needed to avoid Texas Terafactory Osborning Fremont & NV as well as for Tesla to meet existing contractual obligations with Pana. If anyone has a better explanation that will resolve these questions, I am all ears.

Also, note that Elon during his Berlin trip said "To be totally frank, Giga Berlin will be better than the one in the US. We'll upgrade the one in US later" and then went on to talk about what we now know as the structural battery pack.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

I read something the other day that said TSLA stock price was so high because it had all the future car (CT, Semi, Roadster, etc) and technology "baked in" the ~$450/sh price but then Battery day came and Elon dropped revolutionary battery tech and car layout and the stock dropped. So either they thought Elon was going to unveil some crazy alien tech where cars run on rainbows and sunshine (Oh wait, they kinda do) or the stock price doesn't have the real future of TSLA "baked in" and we are going to see huge returns in the next 5-10 years.

 

[Yoona]

I was busy and missed 2400+ messages (AKA sp drama)... Does anyone know when will the official Q3 results come out? Oct 1? 2? 3? Is it usually before market opening or AH? Any guestimate? Thanks.

 

[Cape Coddess]

I believe I read a few pages back that it's October 2nd after the close.

 

[Boomer19]

Just spotted this on CNBS, missed Colin's comments if they were published elsewhere: Top analysts recommend stocks like Alibaba and AutoZone amid the September sell-off

The article cover several stocks, here's the extract about Tesla. The particularly interesting part is this: Plus Tesla reiterated 30–40% delivery growth in 2020 (implied 478–515K) ahead of consensus estimates.

Tesla
Tesla has just held its much-hyped Battery Day event. And while limited details may have frustrated some (shares dropped 7% in Tuesday’s after-hours trading), top Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch liked what he heard.

He reiterated his buy rating on the controversial electric vehicle stock on September 23, and stuck to his $451 stock price forecast (19% upside potential).

TSLA outlined a robust reimagining of battery design, manufacturing, and performance including targeting a $25K vehicle in three years and 20x capacity increase by 2030, the analyst told investors.

“We are impressed with the ambition of the endeavor and believe this roadmap charts ongoing technology and cost leadership for TSLA enabling sales into the entire LDV market” Rusch wrote. Plus Tesla reiterated 30–40% delivery growth in 2020 (implied 478–515K) ahead of consensus estimates.

As a result, Rusch recommends buying on any weakness — arguing that TSLA could be a transformational technology company capable of delivering outsized returns.

“We believe the company’s execution on Model 3 and Y volumes in the medium term and cost reduction, largely from a battery perspective, are critical to realizing positive incremental operating margin and cash flow necessary to support sustainable profitability” he explained.

A top 100 analyst on TipRanks, Rusch boasts a 29.4% average return per rating.

it’s no coincidence that the difference between analysts and analcysts is clearly apparent in the tip rankings score and returns

like, who’s opinion really matters? the ones that are seemingly honest with their assessment or the ones blatantly lying and twisting the facts.

it reminds me of the carlin bit;
it’s the ‘quiet’ ones you gotta watch
(explicit language - obviously...it’s george carlin)

“you’re goddamned right!”

 

[Chickenlittle]

I believe I read a few pages back that it's October 2nd after the close.

And you believe everything you read

 

[Boomer19]

I was busy and missed 2400+ messages (AKA sp drama)... Does anyone know when will the official Q3 results come out? Oct 1? 2? 3? Is it usually before market opening or AH? Any guestimate? Thanks.

View attachment 592730

I believe I read a few pages back that it's October 2nd after the close.

the p&d #s are not guaranteed or pre-determined to be released on specific dates

anything said here is a guess factoring previous patterns of what date the end of quarter falls

 

[ZeApelido]

https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1310157418349965315?s=20

DEVON, WPX ARE IN TALKS TO MERGE
DEVON, WPX DISCUSS ALL-STOCK DEAL
DEVON, WPX HAVE COMBINED MARKET VALUE OF ABOUT $6B ENERGY-COMPANY
TIE-UP COULD BE FINALIZED THIS WEEK

Devon is a SP500 company, WPX used to be SP500 until 2014 but is now in the SP400.

Relevant to potential TSLA SP500 inclusion as this merger will likely cause a spot to open in SP400 that could be filled by a company relegated from SP500.

~~~Language, remember?~~~~~

 

[Mo City]

So the Western half of US gets the Model Ys with old 2170 cells while the Eastern Half get the new 4680 cell??

Dude! Do you want Elon to start a new civil war?

Seriously, I think parity is needed to avoid Texas Terafactory Osborning Fremont & NV as well as for Tesla to meet existing contractual obligations with Pana. If anyone has a better explanation that will resolve these questions, I am all ears.

Also, note that Elon during his Berlin trip said "To be totally frank, Giga Berlin will be better than the one in the US. We'll upgrade the one in US later" and then went on to talk about what we now know as the structural battery pack.

To achieve parity, my theory is GA5 at Fremont will start producing Model Ys with 4680s simultaneously with Austin (or silently beforehand).

If/when Elon said Giga Berlin would be "better", he was talking about Nevada, not Austin.

Also, Berlin MY won't launch in Q1 with 4680s. IMO, there is a chance Fremont, Berlin and Austin announce MYs with 4680s ~ the same time.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

To achieve parity, my theory is GA5 at Fremont will start producing Model Ys with 4680s simultaneously with Austin (or silently beforehand).

If/when Elon said Giga Berlin would be "better", he was talking about Nevada, not Austin.

Also, Berlin MY won't launch in Q1 with 4680s. IMO, there is a chance Fremont, Berlin and Austin announce MYs with 4680s ~ the same time.

I agree he was likely talking about Nevada/Fremont not Austin in Germany comments. Plus instead of east coast/ west coast division, the 2170 packs could go to Model Y SR and 4680 to LR+ if Fremont gets 4680 later than Austin.

 

[Thumper]

It looked to me like Elon was talking about the new structural casting technique when he said the Berlin car would be better than US.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I read something the other day that said TSLA stock price was so high because it had all the future car (CT, Semi, Roadster, etc) and technology "baked in" the ~$450/sh price but then Battery day came and Elon dropped revolutionary battery tech and car layout and the stock dropped. So either they thought Elon was going to unveil some crazy alien tech where cars run on rainbows and sunshine (Oh wait, they kinda do) or the stock price doesn't have the real future of TSLA "baked in" and we are going to see huge returns in the next 5-10 years.

The way I see it, AAPL is a 2 trillion dollar company because everyone's got to have their phone. How much will TSLA be worth when everyone's gotta have their car? Yes, I agree, we are going to have huge returns over the next decade.

 

[Pezpunk]

It looked to me like Elon was talking about the new structural casting technique when he said the Berlin car would be better than US.

primarily, yes, but if that was all, then why would he say he'd be talking more about the relevant advancements on battery day? casting really wasnt a subject, unless it was briefly touched on and i missed it.

 

[lafrisbee]

Banning ICE car sales in 2035 is not strong enough. ICE cars average 15 to 20 years to the junkyard so this means we will still have ICE on our roads in 2050 to 2055. ICE cars should be banned from our streets in 2035.

Word is that the "ban" is political posturing. In 2035 "new" ICE vehicles will be irrelevant concerning climate change. And ICE vehicles will be undesirable by almost all segments of the car-buying public. ICE cars will be a vehicle of the poor, or the old guys that pretend "gas engines are cool."

 

[phantasms]

Agreed. I was speaking to my wife about this yesterday. I truly believe by 2035 no one will want to buy an ICE vehicle aside from very occasional edge cases. It would be like making smartphones mandatory a decade after the iPhone came out. lol


That said, the regulation makes me happy.

 

[NicoV]

Fact Checking on Twitter:

From 2026 Belgium will only allow electric cars for corporate car purchases.

Only if we get a government by then.

Edit: I disagreed with that post because it is one of the proposed changes of the coalition that is currently trying to form a new government. Since those talks fell apart last week, and our king had to beg the parties in that coalition to try again, we’re probably going to have a very unstable government even if these guy ever agree to form a new government. I’ll believe this when it is actually a law.

 

[ggr]

I believe I read a few pages back that it's October 2nd after the close.

That is likely to be the time, but not certain. Tesla's only commitment is "within three business days" of end of quarter, but since Zach became CFO it has usually been after hours on the 2nd biz day.

 

[Remus]

It looked to me like Elon was talking about the new structural casting technique when he said the Berlin car would be better than US.

Isn't this amazing?

Just a little over a year ago we were bitching how they balance maintaining line output and experiment with new manufacturing method.

Now they have more freedom to explore with no impact on current production!

The other guys could not catch up when Tesla was limping.

 

[Thumper]

The new casting of the central chassis was in fact talked about and even shown on Battery Day.

primarily, yes, but if that was all, then why would he say he'd be talking more about the relevant advancements on battery day? casting really wasnt a subject, unless it was briefly touched on and i missed it.

 

[Yoona]

I believe I read a few pages back that it's October 2nd after the close.

THANKS