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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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#209,341
MC3OZ said:
What we know for sure is:-
  1. Berlin is making Model Y with front and rear castings and a 4680 structural pack.
Click to expand...

How do we know that Berlin is going to start with the 4680 structural pack? There has been no official communication of that that I am aware of. They could go with a 2170 structural pack, or just the existing 2170 pack using third party cells.

I agree it is likely, but we don't know that "for sure".
 
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#209,342
MP3Mike said:
How do we know that Berlin is going to start with the 4680 structural pack? There has been no official communication of that that I am aware of. They could go with a 2170 structural pack, or just the existing 2170 pack using third party cells.

I agree it is likely, but we don't know that "for sure".
Click to expand...

I don't think Berlin is making the Y with the new pack. The structural pack design needs cells with low internal resistance that can be cooled from the ends. That requires the cell structure musk described. AFAIK LG and CATL can't just start making jumbo cells.
 
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#209,343
MP3Mike said:
How do we know that Berlin is going to start with the 4680 structural pack? There has been no official communication of that that I am aware of. They could go with a 2170 structural pack, or just the existing 2170 pack using third party cells.

I agree it is likely, but we don't know that "for sure".
Click to expand...

The basis for assuming that is comments Elon made in Berlin... something along the lines of "revolutionary change to the way cars are built, details to be revealed at Battery Day".

There also has been some talk about doing battery production in Berlin, again I think Elon has more or less confirmed it is happening.

If we identify the risk on this approach is is scaling the DBE part of 4680, that is also needed for Plaid Model S and Cybertruck, while it isn't "bet the company" it has to work, plan B would involve a few compromises.

A structural pack for 2170s would require steel cans, we are talking about a new line to make packs which will be obsolete when 4680 is working.

Another fall back alternative is get LG, Panasonic and CATL to make tab-less 4680 via a traditional non-DBE process, that plan B is probably something they are intending to do anyway...

I'm not 100% certain that they can make tab-less 4680 via a traditional process, but it is likely they can with some trade-offs, probably electrode layers will be thinner so lower energy density.
 
#209,344
zecar said:
I don't think Berlin is making the Y with the new pack. The structural pack design needs cells with low internal resistance that can be cooled from the ends. That requires the cell structure musk described. AFAIK LG and CATL can't just start making jumbo cells.
Click to expand...

We are talking 1 year, and Tesla can supply some of the machinery needed for the tab-less part.

I agree it can't be done instantly, we are not sure if one year is long enough...

If they are making a structural pack with 2170s, they still need to source those 2170s and they still need a machine to build the pack, without tab-less they still need cooling tubes and that may weaken the structure..

With 2170s perhaps a better fall back is a traditional 2170 pack and a rear casting only.
 
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#209,346
After-action Report: Wed, Sep 30, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Leads Macros on 3rd Consecutive Low Volume Day"

Traded: $20,658,044,487.96 ($20.66B)
Volume: 48,158,128
VWAP: $428.96

Close: $429.01 / VWAP: 100.01%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $399.755B / $186.068B = 214.84%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $386.02
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $240.21
Nota Bene: 3rd tranche of CEO comp. unlocked as of Fri, Sep 04, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 55.7% (56th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 37.7% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.66% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 2020-09-30.png


Comment: "MiC LFP Model 3 SR news buoys the Pre-market"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!
 
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#209,350
MC3OZ said:
The basis for assuming that is comments Elon made in Berlin... something along the lines of "revolutionary change to the way cars are built, details to be revealed at Battery Day".

There also has been some talk about doing battery production in Berlin, again I think Elon has more or less confirmed it is happening.
Click to expand...


Thing is Elon was pretty clear it'll be a year (so late 2021) before they even have the prototype Kato line running at full capacity... and said mass production of this tech is not until 2022.

Ys are supposedly to be coming out of Berlin mid-2021.
 
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#209,352
MC3OZ said:
We are talking 1 year, and Tesla can supply some of the machinery needed for the tab-less part.

I agree it can't be done instantly, we are not sure if one year is long enough...

If they are making a structural pack with 2170s, they still need to source those 2170s and they still need a machine to build the pack, without tab-less they still need cooling tubes and that may weaken the structure..

With 2170s perhaps a better fall back is a traditional 2170 pack and a rear casting only.
Click to expand...


Isn't the structure primarily the epoxy between cells? Epoxy means cooling from the cell ends.

I assume the cells are steel to better resist sheer forces between top and bottom. I assume the top and bottom have a welded connection. But I'm just guessing
 
#209,353
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#209,355
Knightshade said:
Thing is Elon was pretty clear it'll be a year (so late 2021) before they even have the prototype Kato line running at full capacity... and said mass production of this tech is not until 2022.

Ys are supposedly to be coming out of Berlin mid-2021.
Click to expand...

In that case we will need to wait and see exactly how these Berlin Model Ys are being built... I don't think a structural pack with regular 2170s is a trivial exercise.
 
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#209,357
zecar said:
Isn't the structure primarily the epoxy between cells? Epoxy means cooling from the cell ends.

I assume the cells are steel to better resist sheer forces between top and bottom. I assume the top and bottom have a welded connection. But I'm just guessing
Click to expand...

Regular 2170s may generate more heat, the structural pack was 4680s, we know that combination works, 2170s may or may not work.
 
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