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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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@Papafox Yesterday you posted the FactCheck number for deliveries was 141k. Today you gave us Tesla's own survey number of 135.9k. Which of these numbers do you think is a better measure of what the street expects?

The answer is a bit complicated. Many media sources are chomping at the bit to publish a story of Tesla's miss. We've seen such stories come out even when there was no miss by any reasonable standard. These media will use the highest number, the FactCheck numbers as their benchmark. Tesla polling analysts and compiling a more realistic list of expectations can be used by Tesla and others to defend its performance for the quarter. Because analysts are unlikely to game the system by listing unrealistically high numbers when outside the FactSet umbrella, I would say the Tesla numbers are a more accurate summary of analyst opinions. Don't expect the media to do the right thing here, however.
 
The answer is a bit complicated. Many media sources are chomping at the bit to publish a story of Tesla's miss. We've seen such stories come out even when there was no miss by any reasonable standard. These media will use the highest number, the FactCheck numbers as their benchmark. Tesla polling analysts and compiling a more realistic list of expectations can be used by Tesla and others to defend its performance for the quarter. Because analysts are unlikely to game the system by listing unrealistically high numbers when outside the FactSet umbrella, I would say the Tesla numbers are a more accurate summary of analyst opinions. Don't expect the media to do the right thing here, however.

Thank you Papafox. Insightful and answered in a pragmatic way for us long and short term TSLA retail investors. Institutional investors have their special network of information. We have you and people like Rob Maurer? It's no competition who gets the better info!
 
Shanghai factory flyover. Still not much activity, presumably due to the holidays. Site cleanup slowly continues, there's some new digging to improve the water's edge along the outside of the fence. The new road will be entering the property right at the giant supercharger station, but we don't get a good view of the progress there in this video.
 
Maybe Tesla saw an opportunity to pick up a skilled logistics company at bargain basement prices - presumably they will have to expand their logistics network like crazy in Europe when GigaBerlin comes online.

Also, it doesn't do any harm with PR and government relations either - saving a few hundred jobs in the middle of a pandemic.

“If the transaction does close, it is expected to partially mitigate costs of the previously announced reorganization of its transportation business.”

It sounds as if Tesla might even be able to pick up ATW for free, as it saves ATS the planned costs of closing down that subsidiary. In Germany the severance pay for 200+ people can be a hefty amount of money.
 
I’m not making this up:

on yahoo finance Adam Jonas just predicted Tesla sales in China would be zero by 2030.

Sell! :rolleyes:

Normally I would laugh at a prediction like that, and I still don't think it is LIKELY.

But, it's China . . . and very weird things have been known to happen to foreign corporations there.

I would still put this as a "extremely not likely", but unlike North America or Europe, I could not assign a 0% probability to it.
 
It seems this chart completely misses Cybertruck. I'm sure they will be selling more than 30K in 2022. So I'm guessing Other might mean Roadster and/or Semi.

Remember this is the average of "sell side analysts", NOT Tesla management's forecasts. That "other" category definitely includes Cybertruck, Semi & Roadster, the reason it is so low for 2023 (along with the 3 & Y estimate) is that most sell side analysts are clueless.
 
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I’m not making this up:

on yahoo finance Adam Jonas just predicted Tesla sales in China would be zero by 2030.

Sell! :rolleyes:

The only way, and I mean the only way that could be semi-correct, is if Robotaxi is so wildly successful that Tesla stops selling to consumers in 2030 to put millions of vehicles in the fleet. And even then, sales are technically occurring. And they'd be making billions. And that projection is insane.

I know Adam Jonas has been way off and negative, but this just seems delusional.
 
I’m not making this up:

on yahoo finance Adam Jonas just predicted Tesla sales in China would be zero by 2030.

Sell! :rolleyes:

just stupid: Tesla will have zero sales in China by 2030: analyst

“Tesla (TSLA) may not have much of a future in the world’s largest electric vehicle market, if one analyst’s predictions pan out. Morgan Stanley’s (MS) Adam Jonas says that CEO Elon Musk’s high-tech automotive company will likely see sales in China plummet to zero by 2030.

“We have China sales peaking [in the] middle of the decade and then going down...and then eventually nothing after 2030,” Jonas told Yahoo Finance’s “On the Move” this week.”

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