Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

The future as in this quarter? I called this one [MiC LFP Model 3 SR]

Note that LFP is already below $100/kWh.

Lol, oh yeah. How'd ya do on calling the "Model 2" before Bty Day?

Artful Dodger wrote on Sep 17, 2020:

The next big revolution is going to be the Model 2. It'll be $25K, have cast aluminum chasis structures, with an LFP heart, and sold by the millions.

With Roadrunner-derived bty tech, Model's 2 will have tabless LFP cells, made with Maxwell dry bty electrode (DBE) manufacturing tech, in a pack with total performance as good or better as the current generation of NCA cells, with a pack approaching $75/kwh cost.

I predict a 40 kwh pack costing $3.000 in a practical 4-seater car weighing 2,850 lbs. I look for close to 300 miles range in this $25K Model 2 by 2023/4. MILLIONS will be sold.

Cheers!

Nailed it, 5 days before the announcement of the $25K Tesla...

Cheers!

 

[Runarbt]

The slide doesn't really cover it. I have started to assume it is a combination of weight and volume also. I did some calcs here assuming volume only as the denominator but the results are perhaps too good... What is clear is Elon is obfuscating intentionally - sandbagging or otherwise.

The slide doesn't really cover it. I have started to assume it is a combination of weight and volume also. I did some calcs here assuming volume only as the denominator but the results are perhaps too good... What is clear is Elon is obfuscating intentionally - sandbagging or otherwise.

Sandy Munroe showed a quick demo how it bumps volume by more than 3x, but only have ca. 2x the casing material.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like macro is slowly recovering. If the MM's are still hedged and don't sell-off we might even go green.

Lol, you called the top 10 min in advance and within $4. Have you considered appearing on CNBC? Your skillz are mad...

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

They certainly sounded like they knew what they were talking about, and got my hopes up last night for a blowout report. Turns out they were way off. Does anyone know if they have explained themselves today?

Hint: The more elaborate a story is the less likely it is to be a description of reality, and the more likely it is to be a story.

Who CARES about KUKA ROBOTS? Why would anybody bring that up in a production estimate? Only to 'Snow' the 'Bulls'.

Cheers!

 

[CorneliusXX]

I have been thinking just this for some time, that it is undervalued just how much fuel costs must rise as demand is reduced. It is a cascading failure, reduced demand forces reduced prices, producers fail and price skyrockets, which encourages EV adoption which again reduces demand. Synergistically, ICE will try to compete with efficiencies of EVs, further helping to reduce liquid fuel demands, low margin fuel stations will fail and convenience will decline. It will all cascade down rapidly, at some unknown breaking point - but surely it will be recognizable in this decade.

If you haven't seen it yet, you might enjoy the Fractured Tipping Point thread. It's more focused on battery supply improvements than oil demand impacts - but leads to similar results.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yep, I bought the dip.

Powder all expended. Now time to ride it out.

TSLA walked down to $411.20 by end of the After-hrs session. The Mid-BB was $410.86 at the Close

Hint: Wall St. is Kabuki Theatre played for Elties and with a predetermined outcome. I don't even bother sayin' anymore. People should know by now what the shortzes do...

Hint2: The frick'n Algo's are selling the dip A/Hrs at 5:15 PM now, even w/o news. Self-fulfilling tragedy...

Cheers!

 

[tinyrodent]

Shanghai factory flyover. It appears that Model 3 production has resumed; the test track has lots of vehicles, and there is a row of car carriers lined up to accept deliveries.

 

[hobbes]

The public hearing for GF Berlin is over after 8 days (3 days had been planned originally). Different takes, this is a newspaper article that highlights the critical things:

On the last day, the environmental associations went public with a push that could overturn Tesla's schedule of rolling the first cars off the production line in Grünheide in summer 2021: The Brandenburg nature conservation and environmental associations - nature conservation association, green league, Verkehrsclub Deutschland and the citizens' initiative Grünheide - have applied for a new interpretation of the planning documents for the new gigafactory of the US electric car manufacturer.

Google Translate

On the other hand, the head of state Brandenburg does not seem to see big problems:

“As of now, I know of no problem that would stand in the way of the construction permit.”

Tesla Faces Clear Path for German Plant, State Premier Says

 

[amolina]

After-action Report: Fri, Oct 02, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Tesla Delivers Records; Wall St. Stumbles"

Traded: $30,473,811,705.00 ($30.47B)
Volume: 71,513,304
VWAP: $426.13

Close: $415.09 / VWAP: 97.33%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $386.785B / $183.816B = 210.42%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $383.39
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $246.39
Nota Bene: 3rd tranche of CEO comp. unlocked as of Fri, Sep 04, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 49.4% (56th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 40.3% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.73% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

View attachment 594814

Comment: "Tesla 2020Q3 Production: 145.0K Deliveries: 139.3K"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

hey @Artful Dodger, can you please point to any of your posts where you explain how to interpret all the insights from your posts? thanks

 

[UkNorthampton]

I have been thinking just this for some time, that it is undervalued just how much fuel costs must rise as demand is reduced. It is a cascading failure, reduced demand forces reduced prices, producers fail and price skyrockets, which encourages EV adoption which again reduces demand. Synergistically, ICE will try to compete with efficiencies of EVs, further helping to reduce liquid fuel demands, low margin fuel stations will fail and convenience will decline. It will all cascade down rapidly, at some unknown breaking point - but surely it will be recognizable in this decade.

'Cascading failure' - not heard that phrase before, but it seems apt.

I've also been considering what happens when fuel service stations start closing (UK English - garages). In some rural places, you have to go quite a long way to get fuel. It becomes a chore even for those doing few miles. Much of the elderly's mileage might be getting fuel!

Over the years, supermarkets have been the biggest fuel sellers (many say at a loss to get people in to buy groceries). many people lease their cars and use main dealers for service. Many smaller garages (fuel and service) have closed, especially as their owners have aged. Fuel garages in UK:- 40,000 in 1967 (peak) to 8,400 in 2018 (8,000 now?).

Rural fuel garages already charge higher prices. They have less trade to spread their costs across. Where there's a garage, there's normally a village shop/post office which gets most of the trade.

In the UK we already have many rural people complaining about closing of shops, post offices (banking services, pensions, parcels) and pubs. Partly this is due to a lack of younger families and planning objections, you can't buy in the area where you grew up. But whatever the causes, facilities are closing and this is becoming an electoral/press issue. If village shops close, then newspapers can't be delivered, so the press might care more than expected.

At some point having an ICE will be a lot more difficult than having an EV and it will happen bit by bit, locally and then cascade.

 

[UkNorthampton]

It just struck me (I'm a bit slow) that Tesla is probably the first American car manufacturer to have a decent brand image in the rest of the world. Does anyone care about a Ford or a GM (I mean Opal) car anywhere in Europe, Japan or China? Tesla's positive world brand is quite the accomplishment all by itself.

Tesla is unique!

GM - not sure it exists in Europe/UK. Vauxhall (UK) / Opal (EU/RoW) are owned by PSA - so French. Ford - had a terrible reputation, cheap and easy to fix because you had to. I think now it's got a reasonable reputation, but German brands / SUVs might be perceived as higher status.

SMMT (UK) haven't released September yet (try Monday - dynamic link to latest - Car Registrations)

I can't think of many USA brands - Jeep and Tesla really. Ford Europe is more Europe than Ford I would say. Pre-WW2 (in Germany and UK I believe). Tesla being USA based has probably caused many people to NOT buy Teslas. We don't really rate (or think about) USA products at all other than Apple/Google phones and tech which is probably designed in USA but made in China. The other thing is size, EU/UK roads/towns include ancient and small. The cars below probably seem tiny to North Americans Tiguan is probably biggest car in the SMMT list which according to google is a Compact SUV in USA.

I can't think of any USA products really (off the top of my head). Aircraft and 'machinery' were biggest USA>EU export categories - not sure what that covers but probably big things (turbines, military-related?) and not consumer - European Union | United States Trade Representative.

Boeing has a quite low reputation nowadays...

 

[OrthoSurg]

So the FUD today is that we have a demand problem. Thought this was just news from Russ etc, but am seeing it repeated in Forbes etc. as well.
& AJ countered the China growth story by saying in 10 years going to zero

Yeah saw this article in yahoo finance.
2 side of the stories:
1) Chinese market will be the biggest with 25% if buyers interested. Chinese govt interested in Tesla to push their 15 EV smart cars manufacturer to become more competitor in the long term by upping the game. XPeng saying they are all collaborative companies against ICE cars.

2) Tesla sales will go to 0 by 2030 in China.
These analyst should lose their job for spreading complete misinformation.

 

[jerry33]

It's wild that Tesla is still the only company to have over the air updates after eight years.

Legacy makers are hamstrung by dealer agreements. However, doesn't McLaren have OTA? (Not that it really matters given their market penetration.)

 

[Thekiwi]

Minor but pleasing:

Model 3 accounted for 1.8% of New Zealand new car sales in the month of September. (this in a country where the SUV portion of new car sales is 71% - model Y will do very well here when it finally arrives.)

 

[zecar]

Ford Europe is more Europe than Ford I would say

The British have a weird desire to claim Ford.

 

[Buckminster]

The British have a weird desire to claim Ford.

Ford is British - it went global with the Mondeo (British car of the world with a French sounding name). Soon you are going to tell me JLR is Indian....

 

[zecar]

Ford is British - it went global with the Mondeo (British car of the world with a French sounding name). Soon you are going to tell me JLR is Indian....

Like I said, weird. There is also bad news on all the Case machinery all over the UK too.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Nailed it, 5 days before the announcement of the $25K Tesla...

How did you know?

 

[troyhouse]

Did trendtrader end up deleting his Twitter too??

 

[elasalle]

TSLA walked down to $411.20 by end of the After-hrs session. The Mid-BB was $410.86 at the Close

View attachment 594898
Hint: Wall St. is Kabuki Theatre played for Elties and with a predetermined outcome. I don't even bother sayin' anymore. People should know by now what the shortzes do...

Hint2: The frick'n Algo's are selling the dip A/Hrs at 5:15 PM now, even w/o news. Self-fulfilling tragedy...

Cheers!

it’s a mystery during the show and Kabuki only after the show is over - at least for me