Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bruce4000]

I believe that this is the new con of this generation. Daytrading 1~2% daily.
I heard the same thing coming from some people I consider contrarian indicators. As in, their records are so abysmal, that they have a 70% chance to be wrong.

If they only stop and think about it for a second, 1% daily is 3700% annual return.
There are only 29% of professional fund managers who can beat the index return of 7%~10%. How many zeros after the decimal point of an elite does someone with 3700% annual return belong to? The guy will be known as even holier than Warren Buffett or Elon Musk. Heck, forget starting a company, just day trade.

Agree. You can make a ton of money if you buy and sell correctly. Unfortunately, close to impossible to do consistently. Best to find winner companies and stick with them.

 

[MC3OZ]

This is my take on upcoming EV competitions:

Europeans:
VW is going big, as well as Volvo/Polestar. Both ID3/Polestar2 are proven to be a cheaper (in either price and substance) alternative.
And that is the keypoint of the $25000 model from Tesla. VW and Polestar are basically choices with compromises.

We all know Tesla is not only a pioneer in the EV space, but it produces the best EV there is, bar none. What VW/Volvo and other EU manufacturers are hoping that with their current infrastructure of dealerships and manufacturing know-hows, they might stand an edge (regardless of how irrational it might sound) against Tesla.

However, I think the way Tesla is doing is that their EV requires little to no service, and hence there really is no need to have a massive dealership network to service the vehicles. Sure I wish Tesla's service capacity could be better reading all the stories because I never know when it's going to be my turn. However, in my own experience, I've ever needed the service once, and that's for more a cosmetic issue (misaligned door) rather than anything else.

Most of the bugs are solved via OTA updates. And thus, in the grand scheme of things, legacy's infrastructure is not really an edge, but more of a burden that it's going to drag them down in the long term. As we can see from many examples, like Jaguar's OTA capability needs to be "enabled" by dealers. This business choice, I believe it wasn't Jaguar's original intention. However, they've got no choice.

Chinese:
NIO, BYD, Xpeng... etc are all going full steam after the Chinese market. However, the advantage that Tesla has is not so different to Apple's iPhone. It's considered a premium brand in the EV sector. And with Tesla continuing effort to optimize cost and reflects almost immediately to the market, it makes Chinese brands really hard to compete because many still have the model year mentality where they make adjustments on a year-to-year basis.

Thus, I think it doesn't matter whether it's competition from European/American/Chinese EV brands, Tesla's business decision (no-dealership model, no model year model, charging station infrastructure... etc) is what separates itself from all the competition.

Eventually, I believe many players, if they were to stay competitive, they'd have no choice but to mimic Tesla's model. However, given the news we got from Battery Day... by the time competition finally copies everything Tesla CURRENTLY has, Tesla would move to somewhere else already as far as competitive advantage goes.

Even the assumption that others can eventually make a cheaper EV than Tesla is questionable,

In Smart Phones "Wrights Law" applied to a sufficient extent... By that I mean the Android operating system and all other components necessary to make a cheaper smart phone existed.

Taking Battery Day as an example Tesla can share Tab-less 4680 tech , but elect not to share DBE, sure other batteries companies will eventually have something similar to DBE.

The we come to casting Tesla has a special alloy, car companies can eventually develop a similar alloy.. but it takes time.

The we come to factory design and optimization, Tesla prefers to build new factory, and a lot of work goes into an optimized layout.

In all 3 cases innovation, and the pace of application of innovation, directly affects the price.

And when car companies have caught up, Tesla is on to the next wave of innovation...

Wight's Law only applies equally when all companies have access to the same technology and can apply that technology at the same pace.

For Chinese car companies - IMO Tesla and other Chinese car makers will make cars for around the same price, Tesla aims to win by having a better product.

For Legacy Auto - if they can't catch up on innovation and application of innovation, they may be locked into higher priced cars with interior performance.

Eventually the EV eco-system will mature, Wright's Law will apply almost equally to all, but this may take 5-10 years, in the meantime Tesla can build scale, market share and persue further innovation.

So there are 2 possible futures:-
1) Tesla is first amongst equals in a highly competitive market.
2) Tesla remains a leader on price, innovation and quality of product, other car makers can't close the gap and battle for 2nd place.

Neither of these scenarios means Tesla is more than about 20-25% of the market, scenario 2) means Tesla is more profitable than the rest of the market, and means all other car makers struggle to eek out a decent margin.

Yes, the pace of innovation is all important.... because innovation ultimately affects price and performance.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Hey, futures are looking nice at the moment. Up ~1%! Maybe it will be a nice Monday for the market. Of course there are many hours before the market opens.

 

[MC3OZ]

My personal guess is that Berlin will lead on the 2/Z and China will lead on the 1.

The 1 and the 2/Z, plus stationary storage will make a GF in India viable.

Remember that to do a serious market entry into India is going to involve a very quick build-out of a Supercharger network. If you have been to India in the last few years you will realise that is quite a challenge. If you know anything about the Indian electrical grid you will realise it is a complete nightmare. See need for stationary storage as an enabler in this, as well as of course for market entry into that sector.

I think Tesla will push for (and get) a relaxation of the rules so that they can have 100% ownership. After all the Chinese did it .........

Nothing is clean in India. Working through that issue is actually likely to be the biggest stumbling block.

regards, dspp/pb

For EV fast charging I've sometimes argued for charging to be co-located at a solar farm ,especially for Megacharging...

There is already an element of this in Supercharger V3 in includes batteries and can use some solar, in turn this means a grid can be weaker.

So Solar + Batteries (+Grid connection if possible) might work for long distance travel in India.

In more remote areas home charging from a shared village micro-grid might work...

However EV home/public charging in cities might be challenging, it needs something like Urban Superchargers again they need to be backed by batteries.. The more I think about it a ride-share / Robo-taxi model makes more sense for cities.

So bottom line there is probably no way EVs can work in India without lots of solar and batteries....

Those solar and battery installations need to be at the right price, Battery Day suggests Batteries might be ready..

Stephen-Mark-Ryan also picked up that Drew and Elon were sandbagging V2G, Drew eventually said "All future cars capable of 2-directional energy flow" or something similar. It is one thing for cars to have the capability quite another for Tesla and the home infrastructure to support it... But taking India and the Village Micro-grid - V2G may be a useful addition and the infrastructure may be shared with the entire village If that is part of the install it becomes a standard feature.

However, the big question is if the village can afford the micro-grid, the Indian government may need to subsidize the initial installation or provide a cheap loan. Charities might also provide some of the cheap loans.

There is no limit to what solar and batteries can do in India, but it doesn't just happen, but it is a big opportunity to improve the quality of life for many n a very meaningful way, and eventually improve the competitiveness of the Indian economy..

What can go wrong in India is the same as elsewhere - politics. However it only takes one generation of good political leadership to build momentum in the right direction.

 

[zecar]

For EV fast charging I've sometimes argued for charging to be co-located at a solar farm ,especially for Megacharging...

There is already an element of this in Supercharger V3 in includes batteries and can use some solar, in turn this means a grid can be weaker.

So Solar + Batteries (+Grid connection if possible) might work for long distance travel in India.

In more remote areas home charging from a shared village micro-grid might work...

However EV home/public charging in cities might be challenging, it needs something like Urban Superchargers again they need to be backed by batteries.. The more I think about it a ride-share / Robo-taxi model makes more sense for cities.

So bottom line there is probably no way EVs can work in India without lots of solar and batteries....

Those solar and battery installations need to be at the right price, Battery Day suggests Batteries might be ready..

Stephen-Mark-Ryan also picked up that Drew and Elon were sandbagging V2G, Drew eventually said "All future cars capable of 2-directional energy flow" or something similar. It is one thing for cars to have the capability quite another for Tesla and the home infrastructure to support it... But taking India and the Village Micro-grid - V2G may be a useful addition and the infrastructure may be shared with the entire village If that is part of the install it becomes a standard feature.

However, the big question is if the village can afford the micro-grid, the Indian government may need to subsidize the initial installation or provide a cheap loan. Charities might also provide some of the cheap loans.

There is no limit to what solar and batteries can do in India, but it doesn't just happen, but it is a big opportunity to improve the quality of life for many n a very meaningful way, and eventually improve the competitiveness of the Indian economy..

What can go wrong in India is the same as elsewhere - politics. However it only takes one generation of good political leadership to build momentum in the right direction.

Won't the affluent potential Tesla buyers in India already have already invested in consistent power availability? Tesla may not be entering India with big supercharger plans.

The last thing India needs is robotaxi.

 

[JRP3]

Moving too quickly could dramatically increase the price of energy and hurt our middle class and workers across the spectrum.

One of those people. Similar:

“The question is, what about the scale and who will pay for the infrastructure?” Bryce said. “The consumer has been left out of the discussion.”

World may not have resources needed to meet renewable demand, energy writer says

 

[MC3OZ]

Won't the affluent potential Tesla buyers in India already have already invested in consistent power availability? Tesla may not be entering India with big supercharger plans.

The last thing India needs is robotaxi.

I'm suggesting Robo-taxi because in cities most will not have home charging, or even a place to park the car.

I visited a fairly typical home on an Indian family in a city once, it was in an apartment, there would not have been much, or any parking attached to the complex.

In Singapore and Sri-Lanka, I visited people wealthy enough to own detached hosing, that is not at all common. My understanding is even those wealthy enough to own detached housing definitely need Powerwalls and probably solar.

Those affluent enough to own a Tesla for their personal use can afford to set up home EV charging and even employ a driver. But they are a minority of the population.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And tunnel boring.

And Hyperloop. Did you know that terrestrial tunnels for high-speed Tesla transports have the air evacuated to the same pressure as on the surface of Mars? About %1 of Earth's sea level air pressure.

Jus' sayin'...

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

There are already winners in calories that NA-centric observers cannot perceive.

OT: So...

Spoiler: Wal-Martians?

Cheers!

 

[jdw]

The last thing India needs is robotaxi.

If FSD *could* drive in India, it could drive anywhere ... unfortunately, there is not even a small chance of AP/FSD working there. Almost no road markings, people, cows, bicycles, trucks, scooters, carts & tuk tuk's all moving in random directions on random sides of the road. All signalling and intention is done with the horn (aka the Egyptian brake pedal). Pretty much total chaos.

If the grid was more reliable or solar/batteries were more prevalent, an electric tuk tuk could be a big thing. Outside of the big cities, power goes on and off many times a day.

 

[Cosmacelf]

And Hyperloop. Did you know that terrestrial tunnels for high-speed Tesla transports have the air evacuated to the same pressure as on the surface of Mars? About %1 of Earth's sea level air pressure.

Jus' sayin'...

Cheers!

Elon's not a alien, he's actually a time refugee from the future. He's recreating all the cool tech he knows about. It explains so much. It's why he's so confident asking his engineers to do the seemingly impossible. He's already seen it done. All this talk about first principles is just a smokescreen.

 

[JustMe]

COVID2 really opened my eyes on how brainwashed the majority is.

I used to question myself on trends I saw. Thinking "If I can see this, there must be many others that can as well".

But turns out, that even after 10 years since I spotted it, I am still with the minority.

I came here to chew bubblegum and invest in Tesla. And I’m all out of bubblegum!

 

[PV4EV]

If FSD *could* drive in India, it could drive anywhere ... unfortunately, there is not even a small chance of AP/FSD working there. Almost no road markings, people, cows, bicycles, trucks, scooters, carts & tuk tuk's all moving in random directions on random sides of the road. All signalling and intention is done with the horn (aka the Egyptian brake pedal). Pretty much total chaos.

If the grid was more reliable or solar/batteries were more prevalent, an electric tuk tuk could be a big thing. Outside of the big cities, power goes on and off many times a day.

Totally agree! My memories of going no where fast in India are very similar to the chaotic clip below. And its not changing anytime soon ...

.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Traffic in this particular clip actually seemed faster than many European city centers though.

FSD would have a harder time that's for sure.

 

[Mokuzai]

Elon's not a alien, he's actually a time refugee from the future. He's recreating all the cool tech he knows about. It explains so much. It's why he's so confident asking his engineers to do the seemingly impossible. He's already seen it done. All this talk about first principles is just a smokescreen.

 

[gabeincal]

Very quiet weekend here on the board. To me that means everybody is contempt with how things are turning out with POTUS. Futures being deep green is another bonus. Here's to a +13% tomorrow!

 

[lafrisbee]

Price
of 1644$ I sure wish that was "today"

that is just shy of $4/share of making my measely 606 shares into a MIIIILLLLIIIOOON Dollahs.

 

[lafrisbee]

No, he refuses to.

I have shares but have turned down rides in a friend's Model S. He's even offered to let me take it for the day. But I don't need to ride in a Tesla to be heavily invested. Just hearing you guys chat it up makes me believe my money is in the right place. And I do not want to get stupid and buy a tesla now. I want to wait for the "three" cybertrcks I have reserved. I ordered all three variants because I didn't know if Tesla would let you change from one variant to the other without screwing with ya, and I wanted to have my choice when the time comes. I also waited till the reservation numbers were in the 250,000's so I'd be far enough down the line to get one after the bugs were worked out.

 

[Singuy]

I have shares but have turned down rides in a friend's Model S. He's even offered to let me take it for the day. But I don't need to ride in a Tesla to be heavily invested. Just hearing you guys chat it up makes me believe my money is in the right place. And I do not want to get stupid and buy a tesla now. I want to wait for the "three" cybertrcks I have reserved. I ordered all three variants because I didn't know if Tesla would let you change from one variant to the other without screwing with ya, and I wanted to have my choice when the time comes. I also waited till the reservation numbers were in the 250,000's so I'd be far enough down the line to get one after the bugs were worked out.

Always accept opportunities like trying out the product for due diligence sake. I bought FSD just to monitor its progress. After years of investing, it's just about how much knowledge you have about the company for conviction sake, because your conviction will be tested over and over again.

 

[CyberDutchie]

In this video, I agree with the author that the bulls did Tesla a disservice by coming out with rosy delivery estimates of 140k to 150k, or even more, while analysts had their targets at 120k. It made what was an all time record quarter feel like a miss.

This same thing used to be caused by Elon himself by projecting very high numbers. That changed a couple of years ago and he is now way more conservative in his forecast and probably sandbagging a bit.

Let’s not ruin it again by trying to be smart asses and putting out wildly optimistic profit estimates for the earnings call that will exceed all analyst’s estimates. If you are not sure, keep it safe and be conservative—that’s my advice to all YouTuber bulls out there.