Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dutchie]

He lives in Australia. I have not seen him since we had the Tesla.

a disagree on that one, so my brother doesn’t live in Australia or I have seen him since we have the Tesla?!

 

[Thekiwi]

In this video, I agree with the author that the bulls did Tesla a disservice by coming out with rosy delivery estimates of 140k to 150k, or even more, while analysts had their targets at 120k. It made what was an all time record quarter feel like a miss.

This same thing used to be caused by Elon himself by projecting very high numbers. That changed a couple of years ago and he is now way more conservative in his forecast and probably sandbagging a bit.

Let’s not ruin it again by trying to be smart asses and putting out wildly optimistic profit estimates for the earnings call that will exceed all analyst’s estimates. If you are not sure, keep it safe and be conservative—that’s my advice to all YouTuber bulls out there.

I wouldn't call the ~140k estimates as being "rosy" they were educated estimates based on production capacity and real registration data, and previous management comments. The estimates here generally came out being within 1-2% of actual which is extremely accurate. It is not the responsibility of TMC members to worry about how market participants react to earnings and how others create their own earnings and/or P&D estimates.

 

[Scuttlebutt]

I have shares but have turned down rides in a friend's Model S. He's even offered to let me take it for the day. But I don't need to ride in a Tesla to be heavily invested. Just hearing you guys chat it up makes me believe my money is in the right place. And I do not want to get stupid and buy a tesla now. I want to wait for the "three" cybertrcks I have reserved. I ordered all three variants because I didn't know if Tesla would let you change from one variant to the other without screwing with ya, and I wanted to have my choice when the time comes. I also waited till the reservation numbers were in the 250,000's so I'd be far enough down the line to get one after the bugs were worked out.

Same/same/same. 606 shares/3 Cybers in 3 config's (in the 500's for the same reason) drove a new S once in 2013 and only sat in the others. 1 drive was all it took to realize what was happening. I held on through all the tough times only due to this forum.
Warren Buffet was right....you only need 1 good stock to acquire wealth. But it looks like we are going to have a shot at offering price on Starlink so long-term wealth prospects look great!

 

[Thekiwi]

I believe that this is the new con of this generation. Daytrading 1~2% daily.
I heard the same thing coming from some people I consider contrarian indicators. As in, their records are so abysmal, that they have a 70% chance to be wrong.

If they only stop and think about it for a second, 1% daily is 3700% annual return.
There are only 29% of professional fund managers who can beat the index return of 7%~10%. How many zeros after the decimal point of an elite does someone with 3700% annual return belong to? The guy will be known as even holier than Warren Buffett or Elon Musk. Heck, forget starting a company, just day trade.

Most people who trade the market do have terrible returns, but some very smart people in fact did figure out the market, and they did it over 30 years ago. but no one has successfully managed to copy them consistently.

They are Renaissance Technology and they have a 66% annualised return over the last 30 years. Co-founder James Simons is regarded as the best money manager ever. They created successful mathematical models for trading - using a roster of exceptional scientists, but it only scales to a certain size before their trading size starts to impact their returns negatively, so they limit there trading to a level where they "only" make billions a year in their closed funds, rather than hundreds of billions.

I'm continually shocked as to why they aren't more well known, but I guess since they are such a black box and no movie has been made about them, then the general public has never heard of them. But most people in fund management know exactly who they are.

 

[Mo City]

Most people who trade the market do have terrible returns, but some very smart people in fact did figure out the market, and they did it over 30 years ago. but no one has successfully managed to copy them consistently.

They are Renaissance Technology and they have a 66% annualised return over the last 30 years. Co-founder James Simons is regarded as the best money manager ever. They created successful mathematical models for trading - using a roster of exceptional scientists, but it only scales to a certain size before their trading size starts to impact their returns negatively, so they limit there trading to a level where they "only" make billions a year in their closed funds, rather than hundreds of billions.

I'm continually shocked as to why they aren't more well known, but I guess since they are such a black box and no movie has been made about them, then the general public has never heard of them. But most people in fund management know exactly who they are.

I think plenty of folks on this forum have heard of the Medallion Fund. This brings up something I've wondered for quite some time:

What happens when AI becomes good enough to play the stock market far better than the Medallion Fund algorithms? Is it happening already?

 

[Causalien]

Most people who trade the market do have terrible returns, but some very smart people in fact did figure out the market, and they did it over 30 years ago. but no one has successfully managed to copy them consistently.

They are Renaissance Technology and they have a 66% annualised return over the last 30 years. Co-founder James Simons is regarded as the best money manager ever. They created successful mathematical models for trading - using a roster of exceptional scientists, but it only scales to a certain size before their trading size starts to impact their returns negatively, so they limit there trading to a level where they "only" make billions a year in their closed funds, rather than hundreds of billions.

I'm continually shocked as to why they aren't more well known, but I guess since they are such a black box and no movie has been made about them, then the general public has never heard of them. But most people in fund management know exactly who they are.

I thought my 30% annualized return was good. Proves that there's always someone better.

 

[Criscmt]

Those are great rates. I’ve avoided using margins other than as needed for options and settlement, but that could tempt me.

One strategy I’ve considered is to lock my current shares within a reasonable range with a collar, then buy more shares on margin using the low end of the collar.

For example, locking some TSLA shares between 370 to 600 until Jan 2022, then buying additional shares equal to low dollar amount of the shares I locked.

Leaves plenty of upside for locked shares, ensures SP drops will not create a margin call, and gives lots more upside with the new shares.

Can you please elaborate more on this?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon's not a alien, he's actually a time refugee from the future. He's recreating all the cool tech he knows about. It explains so much. It's why he's so confident asking his engineers to do the seemingly impossible. He's already seen it done. All this talk about first principles is just a smokescreen.

So....just Harry Potter casting his patronus.

 

[CorneliusXX]

In this video, I agree with the author that the bulls did Tesla a disservice by coming out with rosy delivery estimates of 140k to 150k, or even more, while analysts had their targets at 120k. It made what was an all time record quarter feel like a miss.

This same thing used to be caused by Elon himself by projecting very high numbers. That changed a couple of years ago and he is now way more conservative in his forecast and probably sandbagging a bit.

Let’s not ruin it again by trying to be smart asses and putting out wildly optimistic profit estimates for the earnings call that will exceed all analyst’s estimates. If you are not sure, keep it safe and be conservative—that’s my advice to all YouTuber bulls out there.

While Tesla has their stated yearly production at 500k, the 140k Q3 number is basically a necessity to get there.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Most people who trade the market do have terrible returns, but some very smart people in fact did figure out the market, and they did it over 30 years ago. but no one has successfully managed to copy them consistently.

They are Renaissance Technology and they have a 66% annualised return over the last 30 years. Co-founder James Simons is regarded as the best money manager ever. They created successful mathematical models for trading - using a roster of exceptional scientists, but it only scales to a certain size before their trading size starts to impact their returns negatively, so they limit there trading to a level where they "only" make billions a year in their closed funds, rather than hundreds of billions.

I'm continually shocked as to why they aren't more well known, but I guess since they are such a black box and no movie has been made about them, then the general public has never heard of them. But most people in fund management know exactly who they are.

There's a book called "the man who solved the market" which goes into depth on the topic. It's a good read.

 

[WarpedOne]

If FSD *could* drive in India, it could drive anywhere ... unfortunately, there is not even a small chance of AP/FSD working there. Almost no road markings, people, cows, bicycles, trucks, scooters, carts & tuk tuk's all moving in random directions on random sides of the road. All signalling and intention is done with the horn (aka the Egyptian brake pedal). Pretty much total chaos.

If people can drive in India, computer can drive in India. There is about a billion drivers in India, therefore I do not see a real problem.
The only problem is asking the wrong questions. "Where are the lane markings" and "how do stop signs look" are wrong questions.
"How do people drive this part of the road" is the right question. No matter where "this par of the road" really is nor what it looks like ... when in Rome, do as Romans do.

This is the real fundamental reason for automatic learning from video feeds without human intervention.
Humans will only transfer their own disabilities ... non-indians do not know how to drive in India, they have zero chance of appropriate labeling of stuff computer sees.

This will be yet another disruption ... when FSD starts being really real it will show through the numbers what traffic system is better. What country did best ... I suspect it wont be those with billions of traffic rules and signs every 15 feet but more like India. There is plainly obvious that your safety is up to you and nobody else.

 

[Artful Dodger]

NASDAQ Pre-Market High: (04:15:04 AM)

$428.00 +12.91 +3.11%

 

[Artful Dodger]

You should have seen the reaction within my own family when we bought our Model X. My brother still cannot get over it and still calls it a “contraption”. It is a pity. I used to have a very good relationship with my brother; called each other on a weekly basis but ever since we bought the Tesla he hardly calls me anymore, just the birthday stuff. Sad..

Elon Musk on Twitter: "To those who quietly help advance the causes we mutually believe in, knowing advancing the cause is the only reward: thank you".

 

[mrmage]

Can you please elaborate more on this?

A collar is selling a call at a higher strike and buying a put at a lower strike for the same price and expiration for a stock. This means the collared stock will not be worth less than the put strike (low) or higher than the call strike (high). It also means setting up the collar is free because the call subsidizes the put.

As of Friday, a collar for Jan 2022 call 600 and put 350 would be free. Because TSLA calls have been more expensive than puts for awhile, this gives the collar more upside than downside, especially if the collar is placed when SP is high.

Ordinarily, buying on margin would be disastrous if SP drops a lot, because it would be subject to a margin call. Although this is not highly likely, it has happened before. Plus when stocks drop, both the margin stock and cash stock drop so loss is 2x.

By buying on margin with a collar, the new stock cannot drop below the put strike. No matter how bad or how long a pullback, there should not be a margin call, giving time for the stock to recover. Not only that, but if there is a rapid drop long before expiration, the collar will slow the rate of drop.

A low margin rate (eg. 1+% at IBKR) is necessary so stock roi is not eroded by excessive fees.

This strategy is for conservative investors who want to leverage existing Tesla shares by 1.8x with the less risk, while avoiding the soul crushing premiums associated with calls.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Totally agree! My memories of going no where fast in India are very similar to the chaotic clip below. And its not changing anytime soon ...

.

It once took me 3 hours to go 1 mile in India (with an experienced local driver). Huge country, huge population. Urban areas are incredibly densely populated. Also noteworthy:- Bangladesh, South Korea and Japan (in wiki screenshots below).

People are cheap to employ, those with some skills that you can rely on might be more - not sure about drivers - but most people rich enough to own a LUXURY car won't be driving it.

Don't forget India has large inhospitable regions of deserts, mountains etc. When people from Europe etc say smaller cars are needed, this may explain why a little. Together with cities/towns having similar road layouts as hundreds or even thousands of years ago. The oldest pub in England is from 1189 and oldest road/trackway in England is 5858 years old. Not sure of the oldest usable road, but it's common for modern roads to follow Roman ones from just under 2000 years ago. You can tell because they are straight while more modern ones (even motorways) aren't. Town centres in Italy are not friendly to large cars! Any old world place might be similar - eg India.

List of countries and dependencies by population density - Wikipedia (last 2 columns km2 and miles2)

Compare to USA

As for Canada.....

 

[JBRR]

https://www.miningweekly.com/articl...rly-talks-with-tesla-on-investment-2020-10-05

 

[UkNorthampton]

Nickel-producing Indonesia in early talks with Tesla on investment

Might also explain Tesla reportedly wanting to buy a stake in LG Chem which already has a deal in the making in Indonesia. Seems like Indonesia doesn't want to export nickel/ore - it wants to go downstream to build cells and maximise the money the country makes.

 

[tinyrodent]

Tesla in talks with Karnataka government for Gigafactory, R&D centre in Bengaluru

 

[jerry33]

The oldest pub in England is from 1189 and oldest road/trackway in England is 5858 years old. Not sure of the oldest usable road, but it's common for modern roads to follow Roman ones from just under 2000 years ago. You can tell because they are straight while more modern ones (even motorways) aren't.

It's been found that making roads straight causes more traffic accidents, so curves are deliberately put into modern roads. In some cases it's also less expensive to make roads curved. Romans didn't have that issue because mostly they walked along the roads.

 

[Artful Dodger]

To be clear, Tesla needs to add 9 MORE new lines each year than the number of new lines it added the previous year: ie: 9 in 2021, 18 in 2022, 27 in 2023.

That means Tesla needs to be able to build 1 machine per year that is capable of building 9 bty lines. So in the 2nd year, Tesla has the capacity to build 18 lines with 2 MTBTMs, and in the 3rd year 3 MTBTMs are available to build 27 by lines, get it? Lol, hope this helps...

To further connect the dots, this is the implication of Tesla's recent purchase of the German div. of ATW:

"ATW manufactures transmission and battery assembly lines that fit well with Tesla's planned operations."​

Telsa now owns a sub-unit that builds Battery Manufacturing tooling and equipment. This has huge implications for Tesla's battery manufacturing growth trajectory over the next 2-3 years. Buying a functioning work unit like ATW Germany gives Tesla a years-long headstart in becoming a major battery cell manufacturer.

And even better, having a captive bty unit allows Tesla the flexibility and dexterity to quickly pivot production plans as opportunities and technology present themselves. Nicely played, Tesla.

Cheers!