Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DurandalAI]

People are debating the merits of repair costs on cast car parts vs stamped car parts and safety.
1. Elon has stated that safety is the first priority when designing vehicles, so don't worry about crumple zone issues, they're engineering for it.
2. If Tesla is going to have Tesla insurance, they're not going to want to have to underwrite expensive repair costs that come as a result of having cast parts vs stamped parts... UNLESS the savings benefit is so great in manufacturing that it offsets the increase in repair costs.
3. Tesla places a large emphasis on active safety, which means as AP safety features get better, the likelihood of getting into a collision is reduced, and the likelihood of the Tesla or Tesla driver being at fault is reduced, so in most states it's the at-fault party that pays for repairs. So, reduced collision rate means less repairs per mile traveled, which is what Tesla insurance will care most about.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Why would they even include Nikola with no products .... hmmm...oh yeah...its CNBS...paid advertising.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

 

[Chickenlittle]

People are debating the merits of repair costs on cast car parts vs stamped car parts and safety.
1. Elon has stated that safety is the first priority when designing vehicles, so don't worry about crumple zone issues, they're engineering for it.
2. If Tesla is going to have Tesla insurance, they're not going to want to have to underwrite expensive repair costs that come as a result of having cast parts vs stamped parts... UNLESS the savings benefit is so great in manufacturing that it offsets the increase in repair costs.
3. Tesla places a large emphasis on active safety, which means as AP safety features get better, the likelihood of getting into a collision is reduced, and the likelihood of the Tesla or Tesla driver being at fault is reduced, so in most states it's the at-fault party that pays for repairs. So, reduced collision rate means less repairs per mile traveled, which is what Tesla insurance will care most about.

Silly discussion if your frame is bent in collision almost always car is totalled

 

[bkp_duke]

View attachment 596570

Why would they even include Nikola with no products .... hmmm...oh yeah...its CNBS...paid advertising.

WTF. Can CNBS be sued by Tesla shareholders for "clear and obvious bias"?

Asking for a friend.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Waymo seems to expanding the fully driverless taxi service in the coming weeks and months. Interesting to see how Tesla's rewrite performs in comparison - taking of course into account that Waymo is targeting a limited geographical area whereas Tesla is going for a more universal system.

Waymo's near term progress would probably affect the share price if they are out with an impressive system before the rewrite launches (and hopefully really performs). A rewrite not living up to the hype would be a double short term whammy in this context.

Waypoint - The official Waymo blog: Waymo is opening its fully driverless service to the general public in Phoenix

It's still in the same very limited area. If I understand it correctly you still need to have been on their waiting list since at least 2018 to even be considered as a customer. They are not opening up for just anyone now. Seems like they will slowly ramp up from a few hundred possible customers today to maybe a few thousand (just a guess). Again, still in the same limited area. The other main difference seems to be that customers are now allowed to bring friends along and presumably no NDA needs to be signed so maybe they finally feel good about letting people make reviews.

Edit: they do seem to say that new customers will be invited over the next several weeks. I'm thinking triple Elon time likely here.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

WTF. Can CNBS be sued by Tesla shareholders for "clear and obvious bias"?

Asking for a friend.

It so blatant....they post that and this about Tesla:

So a butt-dial is a headline now? LOL....the FUD never ends.

 

[Mokuzai]

What about the Plaid X? That's what I'm waiting for! Bought an X75D iin 2018, then bought a bit of TSLA... You can guess the rest of the story, so now I want to send a little something back to Tesla by buying a plaid X and discounting my used 2018 X to a friend.

Yep, S75 RWD in 2017 and started investing in TSLA...now my account looks like this with the Plaid on order. Not sure what to do with the 75 though...probably end up trading in.

 

[kengchang]

It so blatant....they post that and this about Tesla:

View attachment 596576

So a butt-dial is a headline now? LOL....the FUD never ends.

It's Lora, why would you expect any different?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's still in the same very limited area. If I understand it correctly you still need to have been on their waiting list since at least 2018 to even be considered as a customer. They are not opening up for just anyone now. Seems like they will slowly ramp up from a few hundred possible customers today to maybe a few thousand (just a guess). Again, still in the same limited area. The other main difference seems to be that customers are now allowed to bring friends along and presumably no NDA needs to be signed so maybe they finally feel good about letting people make reviews.

Edit: they do seem to say that new customers will be invited over the next several weeks. I'm thinking triple Elon time likely here.

I was just about to respond to this as well.........they're not expanding the area of service at all from what I'm reading. There's really no progress here at all. It doesn't matter if they even perfect that square mile(s) of service because when they expand their square miles or open up a new square mile, they're going to have to go through this process all over again of solving unique instances by hand.

How anyone can think Waymo is going to work out blows my mind......scaling their approach borders on idiocy

 

[Rb48888]

It so blatant....they post that and this about Tesla:

View attachment 596576

So a butt-dial is a headline now? LOL....the FUD never ends.

I don't have time to read that article, but I'm assuming that it's about Tesla's unique ability to add thousands of dollars, per vehicle, in high-margin after-purchase software sales to their bottom line.

When was the last time someone butt-dialed $4k to legacy auto?

 

[Mo City]

Waymo seems to expanding the fully driverless taxi service in the coming weeks and months. Interesting to see how Tesla's rewrite performs in comparison - taking of course into account that Waymo is targeting a limited geographical area whereas Tesla is going for a more universal system.

Waymo's near term progress would probably affect the share price if they are out with an impressive system before the rewrite launches (and hopefully really performs). A rewrite not living up to the hype would be a double short term whammy in this context.

Waypoint - The official Waymo blog: Waymo is opening its fully driverless service to the general public in Phoenix

I'm glad for Waymo and wish them the best. It's good for the autonomy problem to be attacked from different angles. But Elon's tweet makes it clear Waymo's approach has little to no effect on what Tesla is doing.

 

[Compton]

I was just about to respond to this as well.........they're not expanding the area of service at all from what I'm reading. There's really no progress here at all. It doesn't matter if they even perfect that square mile(s) of service because when they expand their square miles or open up a new square mile, they're going to have to go through this process all over again of solving unique instances by hand.

How anyone can think Waymo is going to work out blows my mind......scaling their approach borders on idiocy

I agree that the approach is inferior in the long term but the appearance of great progress will influence investors in the short term.

 

[ggr]

Why would you put it off? There’ll always be a new improvement to keep waiting for for the next ten years.

Yeah, I've never regretted being an early adopter, even though I knew better stuff was coming. I've had 8 years of pleasure driving a Model S that is in every way inferior to the current cheapest Model S. But it's still fantastic!

 

[adiggs]

2. If Tesla is going to have Tesla insurance, they're not going to want to have to underwrite expensive repair costs that come as a result of having cast parts vs stamped parts... UNLESS the savings benefit is so great in manufacturing that it offsets the increase in repair costs.

I keep seeing people talking about Tesla Insurance (not picking on you DurandalAl - just a starting point), as if it's a serious business for Tesla -- either now or in the reasonably near future.

Can anybody point me to anything that suggests that Tesla Insurance is viewed as a serious business for Tesla, either now or in the future?


My understanding is that today it isn only available in California. My belief is that this will never be a serious business for Tesla - that biggest outcome intended would be Tesla acting in the role of a referral and bundler of a large number of new customers to an existing auto insurance company (i.e. - negotiating a special rate for "Tesla" insurance through State Farm, and then referring Tesla buyers to the "Tesla Insurance operated by State Farm" insurance policy).

I DO see this idea as something of a threat or nudge / motivation to the current auto insurance industry - start taking the improved safety and lower overall claims levels from Tesla vehicles into your premiums, or we'll just start up a competitor (or work with one of your competitors that IS doing this) and take your Tesla auto insurance premiums away from you.


In the meantime, the barriers to entry for Tesla as an insurance provider are very high. State by state licensing. Reserves so that Tesla can pay claims when needed. Building up a new division with the insurance business processes and expertise. It's this last point I see as a particularly large barrier - the Tesla insurance legal entity is going to need a fair bit of cash to get started, and will need to retain some reasonably large amount of reserve to be certain of being able to pay claims. Stuff that insurance companies do routinely and do well.

I imagine there are others here with a lot more insurance industry experience than me (who has ~none) and can articulate these barriers to entry better.


In the end, I see Tesla insurance as a money loser or break even for Tesla outside of a situation in which none of the current auto insurance providers see lower claims insuring Teslas and thus Tesla decides to go into competition by charging lower insurance premiums to insure Teslas.


Also worth adding, again MHO, is that it isn't completely clear to me that Teslas actually ARE cheaper to insure. Factors in favor of cheaper are fewer accidents, and reduced medical bills for the people in the Tesla when it does get in an accident.

Factors in favor of more expensive are that Teslas are totaled more frequently (I believe - don't have data to back this) and that seemingly minor damage leads to much larger repair bills (again - my belief, not data). Also that Teslas are more expensive on average than other cars on the road.

I think that the balance of those factors, mostly because of the medical bill side, DOES make Teslas cheaper to insure. Is it enough cheaper though for a standalone insurance business to flourish and generate significant profits though? I am firmly of the opinion that this is no, at least today and the foreseeable future. Get 10M Teslas on the road in the US - maybe then.


(and in the meantime, Tesla referring customers to a particular provider with typically good deals on auto insurance for Teslas - totally)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I agree that the approach is inferior in the long term but the appearance of great progress will influence investors in the short term.

I definitely think Waymo is and has been in a mad rush to make some progress to show viability of their approach as way to get funding from cities to implement their approach on a small scale......as well as funding from investors that are not informed.

I think Waymo knows, just as we do, that once Tesla reaches a certain point, the value of Waymo pretty much goes to zero unless they have some contracts in place to use their approach by some cities

 

[adiggs]

Yeah, I've never regretted being an early adopter, even though I knew better stuff was coming. I've had 8 years of pleasure driving a Model S that is in every way inferior to the current cheapest Model S. But it's still fantastic!

This has been my experience as well, though it was 5 or 6 years in a Roadster, and the last 3 years in a 90kwh Model X (really want the extra range that is now available).

Ergo - the time to buy is when the available car does what you want. Because there will always be new and better technology. Always.

Or alternatively: car in driveway is better than future car in bush (or something like that )

 

[jerry33]

WTF. Can CNBS be sued by Tesla shareholders for "clear and obvious bias"?

Asking for a friend.

Be hard to do because Tesla is a bit too mature to be classified as a start up.

 

[Don TLR]

This is good for EV’s letting people know that they’re just not for city driving including the Long Way Up sort of. I have friends (prior winning team) competing in the rally and will be interesting to hear daily updates. The Cybertruck can’t come soon enough! https://twitter.com/rivian/status/1314250692970926080?s=21

 

[jerry33]

Yeah, I've never regretted being an early adopter, even though I knew better stuff was coming. I've had 8 years of pleasure driving a Model S that is in every way inferior to the current cheapest Model S. But it's still fantastic!

Absolutely. Though I did trade in the early 2013 this year for an X. Mainly to get the safety features and ease of entry.