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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Reuters also reporting on the Model S price cut now- They say it affects US and China - I did not notice any EU changes either. (They always leave us out, like with Model 3 price cuts as well...).

Interesting how they frame Q3 deliveries though:
"Tesla said it delivered 139,300 vehicles in the third quarter, an all-time record, yet shares fell as some analysts doubted if Tesla could hit its ambitious year-end target" (Emphasis mine).

So I am sure there were some bearish notes around this, but they conveniently omit/forget, that the day Tesla reported Q3 sales was the morning after Trump announced he got Covid-19 and thus everything fell. In the meantime we are literally back to the same level as on October 1st in pre-market today.
 
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Nope. Not really. If it were it would be a slow walk up during hours instead of spiking then being walked down through out the day. And as I have theorized before, The MM's have a very good understanding of the direction of the stock (and that is why this kind of manipulation doesn't really piss me off more), and the MM's let the stock rise and fall, they just "help" themselves to where it has to be. And they also do manipulate it to the point of putting off algos and the casual buyer, as well as sometimes boosting it to get more interested in it before they do their end game. Often I've seen it rise for no reason at all to a considerable level so that those inclined to buy calls will go ahead and try their hand. Only to see the stock tumble back down and stay there the rest of the week.
I can figure out what Tesla is doing and where it is going. I can't have any idea what the MM's are thinking each week because the MM's sole objective is to fool me into making a wrong move...whether it is to buy or sell, or buy calls or puts, or to set a sell order. The MM's aren't playing the stock. They are playing the people....AND the stock.

Just watched The Big Short yesterday.
MM sole objective is to make money at any cost. If that means playing the people, the stock, the environnement, their families, they don’t care.
 
Reuters also reporting on the Model S price cut now- They say it affects US and China - I did not notice any EU changes either. (They always leave us out, like with Model 3 price cuts as well...).

Interesting how they frame Q3 deliveries though:
"Tesla said it delivered 139,300 vehicles in the third quarter, an all-time record, yet shares fell as some analysts doubted if Tesla could hit its ambitious year-end target" (Emphasis mine).

So I am sure there were some bearish notes around this, but they conveniently omit/forget, that the day Tesla reported Q3 sales was the morning after Trump announced he got Covid-19 and thus everything fell. In the meantime we are literally back to the same level as on October 1st in pre-market today.

Well, the danish Tesla site is updated with the new lower Model S prices. Around DKK 31k lower than yesterday.
 
And don't forget we had 10 days shutdown end of September for M3 at GF3, but as a consequence, they skipped the October holiday...
Yes, my Q4 production projections begin with the 20-day average production at Giga Shanghai. That's why it only takes 82 days of production to reach 50K MiC Models 3.

On top of that, any additional production due to the 3rd shift, the availability of CATL bty packs, and possibly even early Model Y production, ALL of which add to the totals at Shanghai, moving Tesla ever closer to the 500K production milestone. This is going to be fun to watch! :D

Cheers!
 
Just watched The Big Short yesterday.
MM sole objective is to make money at any cost. If that means playing the people, the stock, the environnement, their families, they don’t care.

"That moment when you realize the Tamarians were essentially speaking in memes..."

tumblr_mh7mymSxQH1ruf44ao1_1280.jpg


Cheers!
 
WuWa visited the Tesla Pudong Delivery Center with his drone:


Edit:

The largest delivery centre in Shanghai at around 4500 m2. Will have room for up to 300 cars in the future.
Tesla now has more than 70 delivery and experience centres across China.
Somewhere between 10% and 52% of Teslas are bought in cities where there are no Tesla centres.
 
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Exactly. TSLA has grown 8.75x over the past 5 years, for an annual CAGR of 54.3%

View attachment 597981

That's pure BUY'N'HOLD. BTW, holding to 2025 (5 more years) while maintaining just a 50% CAGR sends the SP to $3,350 and TSLA's Mkt Cap to $3.1T (yes, that's $3.1 TRILLION in 2025).

Except that Elon stated on Bty Day that Tesla growth would ACCELERATE over the next 5 years as the Company gets bigger, not decellerate like other big growth companies. 'Bty Day' showed us how.

Personally, I'm fine with 50% CAGR / $3.1 T Mkt Cap / $3,350 per share in 5 years. That's what I based my investment thesis on 3 years ago. But because I timed the market for buy-in, a few swing trades and FOREX gains, my current CAGR is just over 225%

Yes, that's almost exactly 5 yrs of 'TSLA' growth in half the time. Not too shabby, thanks Elon. :D

Cheers!
Growth has been limited by batteries at every stage of growth. I expect Kato Rd batteries are being stockpiled for Austin already and RoadRunner 2 ready for Berlin next year Tesla will be able to grow battery supply 100% annually for a few years. It seems reasonable that each new version of Kato Road will include multiple lines and ramp way beyond 10GB at that small site.
Maybe some Kato batteries will ship to Berlin as well, as the site starts early slow ramp.
 
edit: reemphasis of not specifically saying solid state will ever be a thing. I did put money in kcac in case they somehow leapfrogged tesla, but the more time that passes the less I feel tesla will be out innovated in the next decade barring some lab accident that results in some accidental breakthrough

KCAC doesn’t need to Leapfrog. Just produce cost competitive batteries and they will sell all they can make.

I have no doubt that Tesla is continuously researching and huntIng for battery improvements in a ‘state’ agnostic fashion. Solid state or whatever phase of matter just give us the damn batteries!
 
Maybe I am misinterpreting, but this doesn't seem right? Or are there just going to be a lot of unhappy MMs?

TSLA Max Pain 380 maturity=10/16/20 created=10/13/20 07:20AM EST
That chart looks interesting to me. Sometimes there's a clear center, but not here and the $380 is being skewed by the spike of puts at $200. What seems more likely is a sell wall to protect $450 from the calls there going into the money, but there are a number of puts higher than that. Maybe I don't understand options well enough, but the stretch from $450 to $500 looks like enough of a mixed bag that different market makers may have different views.

Based on the current max pain chart I'd expect the aforementioned sell wall at $450, but if that is breached then no concerted action until another sell wall at $500. Unless the options shift over the week to provide a clearer center I don't think the listed max pain number will be that meaningful, and any other "max pain" guess will be fuzzy.

Stock Option Max Pain
 
The S price drop fits into my assumption that some sort of refresh is happening next year along with Plaid. (or sooner)
Personally, I'm fine with 50% CAGR / $3.1 T Mkt Cap / $3,350 per share in 5 years. That's what I based my investment thesis on 3 years ago. But because I timed the market for buy-in, a few swing trades and FOREX gains, my current CAGR is just over 225%
Cheers!
Ugh, well I guess that would be ok... ;)
 
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Exactly. TSLA has grown 8.75x over the past 5 years, for an annual CAGR of 54.3%

[snip]
Personally, I'm fine with 50% CAGR / $3.1 T Mkt Cap / $3,350 per share in 5 years. That's what I based my investment thesis on 3 years ago. But because I timed the market for buy-in, a few swing trades and FOREX gains, my current CAGR is just over 225%

Yes, that's almost exactly 5 yrs of 'TSLA' growth in half the time. Not too shabby, thanks Elon. :D

Cheers!

While I certainly thank Elon for running the company so well that it justifies ever higher valuations, my buying opportunities were funded by Tesla's enemies so I thank them as well. :cool: Here's a shout-out to all my friends in $TSLAQ, :rolleyes: I love you all, thank you for my <$200 (pre-split) shares! :p Without them my returns would not have been possible. :)
 
I find articles like this one to be troubling. They exaggerate what Musk actually said and set false expectations. Not helpful.

Tesla's date-specific releases are spelling trouble for competing car companies

Teslarati said:
Just last week, Musk stated on Twitter that Tesla would be releasing a “zero-intervention” version of the FSD suite, allowing owners to have their cars drive to destinations with no real responsibilities being left on the driver.

Great, except that that is not what Musk said. The closest I could find is the following tweet:

@elonmusk said:
Waymo is impressive, but a highly specialized solution. The Tesla approach is a general solution. The latest build is capable of zero intervention drives. Will release limited beta in a few weeks.
(emphasis mine)

He did not claim that the release would be "zero interventions" but that it would be possible for it. Put another way, there will be interventions some of the time. Driver A on travel X may do so with no interventions, but there will be a driver B on travel Y that will have one or more interventions. Reducing the interventions is ongoing, it is not a fait accompli.
 
The S price drop fits into my assumption that some sort of refresh is happening next year along with Plaid. (or sooner)

the market is always looking for excuses to worry about Tesla demand. Any price cut always results in a buy opportunity, simply because the market still hasn't learned to recognize Tesla FUD in realtime.

But yes, I agree this is a signal that the long-awaited S/X refresh is coming, and there's no reason it can't precede Plaid.