It coincided with a drop of the futures and a worldwide drop of major indices and stocks, so unless it’s all part of a big worldwide scheme to manipulate TSLA, I’m calling luck on this prediction.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It coincided with a drop of the futures and a worldwide drop of major indices and stocks, so unless it’s all part of a big worldwide scheme to manipulate TSLA, I’m calling luck on this prediction.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Here's today's Tech chart from 09:30 EDT:
Cheers!
Cheers!
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Something that has been bothering me about the options chain this week are the $800 puts. I thought puts were traded below the current stock price with the buyer believing that the stock price would drop below the strike. The $800 puts show an ask of $360 which is just about the difference between yesterday's close and $800. Okay, I guess I get that: its a net nothing? Would those have been originally sold for whatever was the current delta between price and strike? If so, why would anyone buy them?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Some implications for 2020Q4 GF3 production:
Telsa goal of 500K total production for 2020 comes down to producing about 181K cars total worldwide in Q4. With 50K from Shanghai, that's 131K at Fremont, or about 10K/wk. If Shanghai can increase production beyond Sep 2020's rate of 4K/wk, then those are bonus numbers.
- 12,212 Models 3 produced in 20 days in Sep means that GF3/Shanghai has already demonstrated sustained production of 610 cars per day, or 4,275 per week
- continuing this production rate implies GF3 will produce 50,000 Models 3 in just 82 days during Q4
- this is BEFORE the new CATL bty supply and the 3rd shift became available at Shanghai
Can Tesla do it? With the 2nd Gigapress and GA5 coming online at Fremont early this quarter, YOU BETCHA!
Keep in mind also that Tesla still has some spare capacity on the Model S/X line (perhaps +6K/qtr spare). With today's announcement of a $4K price reduction for Model S, I think we will also see increased demand for the world's Longest Range EV and Motor Trend Magazine's "Ultimate Car of the Year" (the Tesla Model S).
Cheers!
We went over all this several days ago when Gigagrunt provided us the limiting factor for Freemont- currently only able to produce ~7.2k cars per week of battery packs for 3/Y.
I mentioned 4xxx weekly in China at the time and one guy insisted he heard is was 6xxx which obviously turned out to be incorrect.
13 weeks at 7.2k a week is 93,600 3/Y from freemont.... adding the 50k from china # that still leaves Tesla 37.4k short... which is slightly more than double the production rate of S/X in any quarter of 2020 so far.... (and indeed higher than quarterly S/X build by 50% even before the 3 began stealing sales from them)
17.4k is probably more realistic for S/X based on 2020 numbers.... so that least Tesla about 20k cars short of hitting 500k for the year.
Given they lost about 50k of Fremont production during the Covid shutdown I certainly don't consider this as a real miss of the original 500k guidance....without that they'd easily have gotten nearer 550k than 500
(and maybe they'll magically find a way to build 20k extra cars somehow though I'm pretty dubious of something like a 3rd shift in China getting quite THAT many out in that time period- I suppose if a TON of Q4 builds are SRs in the US that'll help too, as GG mentioned they could get as high as 8000/week packs if that were the case but it hasn't been to this point).
Even 20k short that leaves them at 160k which would be another new record (and likely a new delivery record as well depending how much of that production can get to a customer by Dec 31)
The latter, every single time, even when the stock's on a streak...
Now what, I guess the market didn't like the leaked blue iPhone
Happens every, single day, mate
If it happens every, single day then you don't deserve any praise for predicting it
Over in Austin there are some going-on's on the other side of the road from the main build - the west side. Look at 12:45 and onwards:
Driver Dave
Member
Somebody questioned the percent of my holdings in single stocks.
He recommended diversifying.
My approach has been that diversification is a road to average. Which is fine, but I've had much better success finding great companies and focusing on them. This may or may not be a great way to invest, but it has worked for me.
But then I got to thinking...
I have a large holding that encompasses:
* AI Software
* AI Hardware
* Energy Storage
* Energy Generation
* Consumer Transportation
* Industrial Transportation
It just happens that these are all under an innovative forward thinking tech fund named TSLA.
So turns out, I'm very diversified.
He recommended diversifying.
My approach has been that diversification is a road to average. Which is fine, but I've had much better success finding great companies and focusing on them. This may or may not be a great way to invest, but it has worked for me.
But then I got to thinking...
I have a large holding that encompasses:
* AI Software
* AI Hardware
* Energy Storage
* Energy Generation
* Consumer Transportation
* Industrial Transportation
It just happens that these are all under an innovative forward thinking tech fund named TSLA.
So turns out, I'm very diversified.
Does your Fremont battery pack limit include the proposed improvements Panasonic have stated they are making at GF1?
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I don't have any trouble with people telling me to diversify because I don't tell people what I invest in (or even that I invest at all, I'm a johnny-come-lately so people don't know to ask), but if they did I think describing it as the TSLA fund works well.
On top of that, Musk recently said something to the effect of Tesla being comprised of a number of startups so the fund is not only diversified but it covers a number of innovative startups so it is a growth fund as well.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
So @Driver Dave s post about diversification got me to look at a clickbait Market Watch article that is pimping convertible notes as better diversification. So I slogged through it and then I got the surprise toward the end:
Well... alrighty then! That isn't the context I'm used to seeing Tesla presented in the media. But I think I'll stick to my HODL strategy of simply being long $TSLA.
Your portfolio is not as diversified as you think, unless you are utilizing this powerful strategy
Market Watch said:
Well... alrighty then! That isn't the context I'm used to seeing Tesla presented in the media. But I think I'll stick to my HODL strategy of simply being long $TSLA.
Your portfolio is not as diversified as you think, unless you are utilizing this powerful strategy
In the words of GJ..."Another price cut...that tells you that Tesla can't sell their cars....my new PT is $14...Competition is coming, Europe demand is down 80%...blah blah blah"
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW it's not my limit- it's directly from an employee at GF1 known for giving accurate info and speaking specifically of the limits as of a few days (maybe a week) ago. (I included a direct link to him posting the info a few days ago)
AFAIK the Panasonic improvements battery-wise are already a month old so they'd be included.
If you can...watch "The China Hustle" on Hulu. Real eye-opening.
We can argue the rates and such, but we need to give a lot more weight to Elon saying that they can hit 500k production (especially as he started sandbagging on production numbers). Clearly something is cooking that we are not aware of. My bet is a massive expansion of the China output using the iron phosphate batteries from CATL, with some increased efficiency from Fremont / Reno.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Again we are at < 50% average volume, so expect the same MM walkdown we've been seeing the last few days.
Need a catalyst for higher volume to hold onto these gains!
Need a catalyst for higher volume to hold onto these gains!
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