Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cobos]

I have the answer.......they don't have the money.

/s

I see HG Wells beat me to the joke.

Keep in mind Tesla Norway at some point around 2017 I think was threathened with actual banckrupcy due to unpaid bills.
The truth, some office supply company had an unpaid bill of $1000 or $2000 or some similar ridiculous figure with Tesla Norway. The office manager at Tesla Norway was either missing, incompetent or something so this had gone on for over half a year. Tesla Norway did lots of similar stupid things at that time due to growing way too fast. When this hit national news in Norway someone further up the food chain paid the stupid bill and made it all go away.

So not saying people are not sabotaging stuff at GF Berlin, but sometimes Tesla does really stupid stuff.

 

[Krugerrand]

There is no question about the reason - it was nonpayment.

Google Translate

Question is how that could happen.

I’m pretty sure it happens when accounts payable doesn’t pay a bill. Maybe the bill got lost between the trash can and the shredder? Maybe Tesla is contesting the amount? Maybe accounts payable person went on holidays? Maybe accounts payable person is sick at home with COVID? Do you require me to give more possibilities?

Poo happens. It’s not like Tesla doesn’t have gobs of cash in the bank. So what’s your point? Somebody screwed up? Oh, wow! Revelation! People screw up.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Speculation that it may be simply an accounting problem...

 

[Krugerrand]

I'd agree as Peter had quite a following at Tesla. And his designs were good. There might be bad blood with Elon and I'm not sure about who exactly left with Peter or who ended up there. But after checking LinkedIn, none of my contacts are currently working there, which I find surprising.

Based on the Twitter dialogue is guess Elon is just being competitive.

Nick Sampson left at the same time. No other notable ‘big names’ at the time left.

 

[Tslynk67]

Anyone else listening to this? Very informative and educational. I ended up buying more TSLA shares and LEAPs during the discussion. I know I won't regret that in the long run.

Will catch-up tomorrow, but the last interview Rob did with Alex (around Christmas time, I think) was really educational, especially on the specifies of the Chinese consumer trends and manufacturers. Was well worth the time.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As earnings draw near, my # 1 thing I'm most interested is, like most quarters, Tesla Energy growth. Really think that the first sign of the growth curve for energy(growth of at least 40%) will cause another 15-20% in stock appreciation since it will force Wall st to give energy a fair valuation.

Whats everyone else's #1 thing they're looking for at earnings or in the earnings call? No lists ....your top thing

 

[Tslynk67]

Speculation that it may be simply an accounting problem...
View attachment 598876

The real question is, why is this in the news? So what. Why would the water authority even leak this to a paper, if true?

It's not news. If BMW miss a bill, is that in the news? I doubt it.

On one hand it stinks as we're beholden to even single misstep that might be made, on the other, it's continual free advertising for Tesla.

In today's news:
- Elon farts!
- Zach Kirkhorn had a great dump!
- Tesla President of Automotive, Jerome Guillen not seen in his office for 5 minutes, does this mark the start of a new C-suite exodus at the troubled automaker*

* maybe that was an actual Lora Kolodny FUDline, can't remember...

As for today's SP "action" - mission accomplished for the manips, closed below $450... Here's hoping for the Q3ER FOMO crowd to return tomorrow and make Friday a miserable day for the hedge funds.

 

[pz1975]

As earnings draw near, my # 1 thing I'm most interested is, like most quarters, Tesla Energy growth. Really think that the first sign of the growth curve for energy(growth of at least 40%) will cause another 15-20% in stock appreciation since it will force Wall st to give energy a fair valuation.

Whats everyone else's #1 thing they're looking for at earnings or in the earnings call? No lists ....your top thing

Mine is GAAP profit without regulatory credits and expectation of that for all future quarters - this is near 100% IMO but needs to be proven. That removes one of the last remaining major bear arguments. I know they will move goalposts like they always do and come with something new, but proving this should open up TSLA to a whole new set of investors who only invest in profitable companies (asterisk being they could still exclude Tesla until profits came entirely from their core operations and not from subsidies). (There is also the S&P inclusion angle, but I don't want to start that discussion again.) And whatever new goalpost the bears come up with will be much less convincing to Wall St. than this one.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's official. I'm outing you as cathie wood

https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1316577205489721344?s=19

Ha! Cathie is smarter than I am (and knows a lot more) but I've been holding my belief that a technology-based bull market will unfold over the next several decades, since before we had even heard of Cathie Wood. The traditional view says that tech doesn't get the real work done and the value is in the companies that can bring real goods to the consumers. But when technology makes it easier and cheaper to do that by increasing efficiencies, it's where the real value lies. Without it, the traditional companies die. And investing is all about owning the profit that will flow from all these technological developments (coupled with economies of scale).

Change happens quickly or slowly depending upon how you view it. From an individuals perspective it appears to happen so slowly that many people can't really even see it happening. Taking a step back, with a longer time perspective, it happens almost instantly. But change can happen very quickly, even from an individual's perspective, once the foundations for that change have been laid. It's the laying of those foundations that seem to take a long time. Nothing is stronger than an idea whose time has come.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ha! Cathie is smarter than I am (and knows a lot more) but I've been holding my belief that a technology-based bull market will unfold over the next several decades, since before we had even heard of Cathie Wood. The traditional view says that tech doesn't get the real work done and the value is in the companies that can bring real goods to the consumers. But when technology makes it easier and cheaper to do that by increasing efficiencies, it's where the real value lies. Without it, the traditional companies die. And investing is all about owning the profit that will flow from all these technological developments (coupled with economies of scale).

Change happens quickly or slowly depending upon how you view it. From an individuals perspective it appears to happen so slowly that many people can't really even see it happening. Taking a step back, with a longer time perspective, it happens almost instantly. But change can happen very quickly, even from an individual's perspective, once the foundations for that change have been laid. It's the laying of that foundation that seems to take a long time. Nothing is stronger than an idea whose time has come.

The internet (along with AI and tech in general) is eating the entire world.

 

[RobStark]

To me it seemed that Elon was just countering the implication by Lucid that Peter designed the Model S. Obviously Lucid (and himself) are going to play that up as much as possible, and presumably Elon would have a tendency to downplay that. We all lie on our resumes after all.

Fact: Peter was hired as Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering and Chief Engineer for Model S.

After being recruited away from Lotus by Elon.

Elon says that Peter didn't do very much for Model S. Elon also said Peter left Tesla in the lurch when he left.

If Peter didn't do very much how could he leave Tesla "in the lurch."

Lucid being granted patents on EV motors,inverters, and power electronics and Lucid Air lap times at Laguna Seca suggest Peter knows a thing or two about EVs.

 

[vikings123]

As earnings draw near, my # 1 thing I'm most interested is, like most quarters, Tesla Energy growth. Really think that the first sign of the growth curve for energy(growth of at least 40%) will cause another 15-20% in stock appreciation since it will force Wall st to give energy a fair valuation.

Whats everyone else's #1 thing they're looking for at earnings or in the earnings call? No lists ....your top thing

There's so many great things to look forward to. Like you I hope we get some updates on energy. Agree with you that we will surprise WS with the energy numbers or the guidance.

Two weeks before Q2 ER Elon released the short shorts for 69.420. This time he changed the Model S price to 69420 very likely in response to Lucid's pricing but I just have this strange feeling that he expects another major short burn. There's likely one or two surprises and he wants to be very subtle with his hints.

 

[gabeincal]

https://twitter.com/strivenb/status/1316802697681608704?s=21

and

 

[gabeincal]

And an interesting one...

https://twitter.com/cruise/status/1316786478291320834?s=21

I’m really hoping that the rush to keep up with Elon is not going to result in a loss of life on one of these platforms. I’m all for Tesla FSD. No clue about Waymo, Cruise, Uber, and the zillions of others’ reliability.

 

[Krugerrand]

Whats everyone else's #1 thing they're looking for at earnings or in the earnings call? No lists ....your top thing

My #1 thing is if there’s a demand problem.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

My #1 thing is if there’s a demand problem.

GJ thinks there is for the last 8 years

 

[Knightshade]

I’m really hoping that the rush to keep up with Elon is not going to result in a loss of life on one of these platforms. I’m all for Tesla FSD. No clue about Waymo, Cruise, Uber, and the zillions of others’ reliability.

To be fair- right now they're way ahead of Elon, not rushing to keep up.

They're deploying working L4 robotaxis. Today.

Teslas fleet remains at L2. And Elons most recent remarks suggest it'll be at least another year before the re-write system works "well"


The difference is their L4 solutions appear to be heavily geofenced and possibly have a lot of scaling problems. Tesla solution is much more generalized and if/when it does manage L4 it'll be able to do so in a LOT more places. Not there yet though.

 

[humbaba]

And an interesting one...

View attachment 598908

https://twitter.com/cruise/status/1316786478291320834?s=21

I’m really hoping that the rush to keep up with Elon is not going to result in a loss of life on one of these platforms. I’m all for Tesla FSD. No clue about Waymo, Cruise, Uber, and the zillions of others’ reliability.

I don't think its a "rush to keep up with Elon" -- FSD has been "around the corner" going by Elon for quite a while. Forget about Tesla for a minute and consider the Waymo/Cruise approach.

They rely on hi-res mapping and LIDAR with a tendency to rely on proven routes. By using the crutch of LIDAR & mapping they are able to brute force their way to a limited solution. It also makes getting regulatory approval easier: you are asking for a particular region (even a subset of a city) and have high focus on that region.

Then consider the market to be addressed. Waymo and Cruise are after the rideshare market, undercutting it by eliminating the driver. The high cost of LIDAR is not that much of a setback in this approach -- it raises upfront costs, but the recurring revenue will make up for that. In other words, it just extends the ROI.

Its been clear for a while that Waymo would have approved FSD in some market before Tesla does, and Waymo is going for the same market so for Cruise it is Waymo that is the competition.

What about Tesla? A generalized approach is far more powerful, but in consequence requires far more data in order to achieve approval because it isn't being geo-fenced. Also, the market for Tesla FSD is currently the retail market. They are selling it bundled with a car to normal people. All of this puts Tesla in a different place.

I believe that Waymo and Cruise have faith in their approach and thus they see as Tesla pursuing a phantom. They don't care about Tesla, other than maybe concern for bad press about autonomy, but they are ready to loudly clarify how their solution is fundamentally different than Tesla's.

The problem for Waymo and Cruise will be if Tesla achieves a robotaxi release before they have entered enough markets to give them revenue to keep growing while operating. I think that is currently an open question. Last year Waymo had clear intentions on being a robotaxi by end of year, but it looks like that is delayed to this one (the most recent news was that they would gradually expand to being fully open to the public, not that they are right now).

Consider, it took Waymo a year to go from a "complete" solution to an "approved" solution even with the time advantage of LIDAR/geo-fence. How long will it take Tesla? Will their massive data collection compensate for the generality?

 

[humbaba]

To be fair- right now they're way ahead of Elon, not rushing to keep up.

They're deploying working L4 robotaxis. Today.

Teslas fleet remains at L2. And Elons most recent remarks suggest it'll be at least another year before the re-write system works "well"


The difference is their L4 solutions appear to be heavily geofenced and possibly have a lot of scaling problems. Tesla solution is much more generalized and if/when it does manage L4 it'll be able to do so in a LOT more places. Not there yet though.

Did you realize that the only thing keeping Tesla's autopilot from being designated L4 is the assignment of responsibility? Navigate on Autopilot meets the requirement (and then some) except for that detail. Geo-fencing isn't the only boundary, being restricted to Interstates is valid in the definition.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon says that Peter didn't do very much for Model S. Elon also said Peter left Tesla in the lurch when he left.

If Peter didn't do very much how could he leave Tesla "in the lurch."

That's easy. He could have left a bunch of stuff half-done. Maybe almost nothing done enough to use. Just speculating of course, but that would not be unusual.