Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

U.S. / Canada border is currently closed due to COVID

Nope. You can fly to the US on an hours notice with zero hassle. You can’t DRIVE to the US as the land border is closed. Coming back we would have to quarantine for 14 days. We are retired. Meh.

 

[Mo City]

I think people are overlooking the fact that the Waymo/Cruise solutions for FSD robotaxis that rely on geofencing is going to be quickly be cheaper operationally than other services relying on human drivers in every vehicle in the same area. Yes the solution isnt a "general solution" like Tesla is building, but for a geofenced Robotaxi fleet it doesn't have to be. Most of Ubers profits come from small, dense areas that geofenced robotaxis would work well in - ridesharing operators don't need a "general solution" FSD to become very profitable, especially if a general solution is going to take years to match the geofenced solutions in those particular areas.

"good enough" now always beats "perfect" when perfect isn't available to use.

The problem remains that a rollout of a few Waymo robotaxis in one city will be too small to impact the market, including the city of the rollout.

 

[Drumheller]

Nope. You can fly to the US on an hours notice with zero hassle. You can’t DRIVE to the US as the land border is closed. Coming back we would have to quarantine for 14 days. We are retired. Meh.

Thanks. Trudeau just said the border will stay closed until US gets COVID under control. So, I thought it was actually closed.

 

[Knightshade]

Current NOA definitely does not hit stop vehicles.

Except, it does.

A number of documented cases of it happening on AP2+ vehicles. Usually vehicles only partly in their lane or on the shoulder.

This is a known issue with all standard radar-based cruise control systems (and explicitly mentioned as a failure mode in the Tesla owners manual) to prevent them from doing things like slamming on the brakes when the radar bounces off a stationary guardrail around a corner.

it is suspected (but not yet proven) the re-write can "fix" this by using other camera data, improved NN recognition, and an understanding of object permeance to know which non-moving objects are actually a problem and which are not- but it does not reliably-enough do that today.

C
Some car was fully stopped in my lane

Yes- THAT it handles fine. The other situations of stopped vehicles is far more....*takes off sunglasses*...Hit and Miss.

 

[bkp_duke]

Nope. You can fly to the US on an hours notice with zero hassle. You can’t DRIVE to the US as the land border is closed. Coming back we would have to quarantine for 14 days. We are retired. Meh.

I thought there were some hardware differences, in the charging system, between Tesla's sold in Canada, and those sold in the USA.

Is this no longer the case?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Look how TSLA split from the macros (QQQ) at 10:35 AM EDT. That's when the story hit the wires. Macros went up, but TSLA continued down until the split was about -1.2%

View attachment 598947

Note how TSLA lagged the macros for the rest of the main session into the Close? That's $5B in Mkt Cap extracted right there from a News hit-piece.

This is racketeering. I wonder if the German verson of the SEC will care.

Ever heard the story about crying wolf too many times?

 

[Mo City]

And an interesting one...

View attachment 598908

https://twitter.com/cruise/status/1316786478291320834?s=21

I’m really hoping that the rush to keep up with Elon is not going to result in a loss of life on one of these platforms. I’m all for Tesla FSD. No clue about Waymo, Cruise, Uber, and the zillions of others’ reliability.

Seems like it's gettin' real. I'm excited because the tire will meet the road very soon. Elon's cred is seriously on the line this time (but haven't we heard that before).

Perhaps Waymo and Cruise wanted to announce something prior to the "quantum leap" because nobody will listen to them afterwards.

Let's say Waymo beats Tesla to market with FSD by 2 years. Is that enough time for Waymo to put hundreds of thousands of cars on the road and into their network? And not to mention, they will either be buying ICE vehicles and will face that higher cost per mile, or buying cars from Tesla (doubtful any other company has a prayer of scaling enough to service a robotaxi network).

This is why I said earlier being first to autonomy represents bullets to everyone else but is an H-bomb for Tesla. Just one OTA and it's nuclear winter.

Question: If the market is convinced by the "quantum leap" Tesla will achieve autonomy and Tesla announces ride-hailing with drivers in the next 6-9 months (as Tasha Keeney suggests), how much do you think TSLA will soar?

 

[OrthoSurg]

“12 ARKW 10/15/2020 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 26,388 0.3963”

I told myself last time I would copy ARK when they make their next BuyTSLA move. Now, I was not expecting a Sell today...

I do not get it, I thought today would be a good moment to add some extra shares.

 

[bkp_duke]

“12 ARKW 10/15/2020 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 26,388 0.3963”

I told myself last time I would copy ARK when they make their next BuyTSLA move. Now, I was not expecting a Sell today...

I do not get it, I thought today would be a good moment to add some extra shares.

Required, pre-timed sale to balance their fund? IIRC they cannot let TSLA grow over a certain % of their fund(s).

 

[UkNorthampton]

“12 ARKW 10/15/2020 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 26,388 0.3963”

I told myself last time I would copy ARK when they make their next BuyTSLA move. Now, I was not expecting a Sell today...

I do not get it, I thought today would be a good moment to add some extra shares.

Seems low % of ARKW ETF?

ARKW
ARK Next Generation Internet ETF
Why invest in ARKW
Exposure to the “Next Generation Internet” including artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and blockchain technology.

Latest Trades
Fund : 12 ARKW
Date : 10/15/2020
Direction : Sell
Ticker CUSIP : TSLA 88160R101
Company : TESLA INC
Shares : 26,388
% of ETF : 0.3963

 

[jerry33]

U.S. / Canada border is currently closed due to COVID

Even if it wasn't closed, unless you are bringing the car in as household goods when immigrating, you will have to change it to comply with Canadian standards. For most cars, it costs about half the price of the car. Should be less for Tesla because so much of Canadian compliance is software, but not all. Of course, you'd also have to get Tesla to go along with it.

 

[phantasms]

“12 ARKW 10/15/2020 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 26,388 0.3963”

I told myself last time I would copy ARK when they make their next BuyTSLA move. Now, I was not expecting a Sell today...

I do not get it, I thought today would be a good moment to add some extra shares.

Yeah I sold at nearly the top yesterday in my trading account and then loaded up heavy today. Unfortunately average cost basis of 450 but could be worse. I opened the Ark trading email and was like “*sugar*!”. lol

 

[ammulder]

My #1 thing is if there’s a demand problem.

Listen, Tesla deliveries were crap in the Czech Republic compared to all the competition. So obviously, they'll be reporting a massive loss for Q3. You fools just can't see it coming yet.

 

[Yuha]

Elon says that Peter didn't do very much for Model S. Elon also said Peter left Tesla in the lurch when he left.

If Peter didn't do very much how could he leave Tesla "in the lurch."

This is pure speculation, but there may have been some design conflict between Elon and Peter. Elon wanted it this way and Peter wanted it that way and neither would give in.

In other words, Peter had the capability to contribute a lot but didn't because he was driving his own agenda and refused to do what Elon wanted.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Thanks. Trudeau just said the border will stay closed until US gets COVID under control. So, I thought it was actually closed.

It's closed to Non Canadian Citizens / Permanent residents / work permit residents. So if you're not one of those you likely won't be allowed to even board a plane to fly in.

But any Canadian can fly into the US right now (since they don't have this restriction) and return to Canada (if they are Canadian citizens or permanent residents). You just need to do a 14 day quarantine when you get back.

 

[Unpilot]

My #1 thing is if there’s a demand problem.

Better buy a share...or two.

 

[tinyrodent]

Shanghai factory update. Model 3 production appears to be back up to full speed, with vehicles continuously streaming through the delivery area, including use of the new supercharger stalls.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I thought there were some hardware differences, in the charging system, between Tesla's sold in Canada, and those sold in the USA.

Is this no longer the case?

No charging system differences I know of. Not an expert.

 

[Zaxxon]

Man, I go AWOL for a road trip and things happen... I know we've had lots of folks buy shares at $420.69 for the lolz. How many of you bought Model S at $69,420?

Enjoy the next week of potentially boring stock action leading into earnings. At least we have a couple of Starlink launches and a triple-Raptor static fire in the meantime...

Random tidbit that's actually relevant: my X was in for service this month after being rear-ended. Tesla had parts to the shop 1-2 days after they were ordered. I spoke to the shop manager who told me that they've been a Tesla-authorized shop for around 2.5 years, and that Tesla has gotten *much* faster and more consistent with repair parts availability. He said it's rare that it takes more than 3 business days to receive parts.

 

[mrmage]

Step 1: Feature Complete: 1 intervention every 50 miles
Step 2: Tesla has data to prove it can go 10,000X that distance between safety interventions or accidents and maybe 1k miles between nuisance interventions
Step 3: Regulators approve.

Step 2 (or March of the 9’s) includes solving an exploding number of edge cases.
Highway Autopilot doesn’t even handle road debris yet.

There's a chance that if the public sees an intervention every 50 miles, they'll start pricing in robotaxies.

Devil's advocate: Decreasing interventions an order of magnitude is a huge effort. I wouldn't be surprised if there were many rewrites to get the extra 4 or 5 orders of magnitude, with the effort for each comparable to the recent rewrite.