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Since when and where did “Wall St” expect $8.3bn revenue / $0.55 earnings for this Quarter?

That’s what Al Root has put out in Barron’s.....and that’s far higher than the composites, even the outliers, that were anywhere but within the TMC data crunchers’ spreadsheets. Far worse, of course, is that it smells of an Oh Dear Tesla Disappoints With Missing/Barely Beating Expectations heading to theater near you.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some swap St sharpies are researching here with the rest of us and even patronizing some patreon options.
here’s current factset:
Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted profit of 54 cents a share on sales of $8.2 billion.
 
It seems to me that the third party report of Q3 Tesla registrations in California should be taken with a grain of salt. The actual total for Q3 deliveries has already been officially reported. In the Tesla rush of American and especially Californian deliveries late in a quarter, the state paperwork for registrations can be delayed, especially by a pandemic hobbled bureaucracy. And if not, then the demand was made up elsewhere. Meanwhile, with so many Teslas already delivered in California, there could be a lull there until trade-ins start flowing more rapidly.

Regarding GM's electric Hummer commercial tonight: that truck won't be delivered for a year. I doubt older GM loyalists will want an electric pickup truck, at least not in the near future. I'd expect younger electric pickup truck prospects to willingly wait for the Tesla Cybertruck. Perhaps the commercial will spur Elon to move up the production start for the Cybertruck.

Since Tesla Q3 earnings will be released tomorrow afternoon, traders may be cautious. Today's thin trading volume implies that could be true. Hedge funds and market makers might be setting up bargains ahead of a possible jump on Thursday. :cool:
The Hummer is an EV even GM can sell. Their problem is they probably can’t make more then 5000-10,000. A week or two of Tesla sales. It will just drive awareness and more Tesla sales!
 
Well, it looks like we have the MMD and now the MAF (mandatory afternoon fade). I put in an another order for $419 after that drop, but looks like I missed it. Oh well, probably just for the best. I still got some at $422 this AM. I’ve got to figure out how to monitor this better without consuming my day. We’ve got a freeze coming this week and the garden needs massive harvesting and the water needs to be winterized. Life is bigger than Tesla.;)
 
I have often used the knife fight metaphor in describing TSLA share price action. I remain as convinced today as I have ever been, the fossil fuel industry will not go quietly into the night.

Billions of people and companies are vested in the fossil fuel and automotive industries. The endowment effect will drive their animosity toward sustainable transportation until electric vehicles reach a tipping point.

Tesla and those vested in it must become battle-hardened. In the end technology will evolve — the fittest shall survive.
Jack, you're now the gorrilla a' my dreams (well maybe nightmares). And you're right on with your analysis... a lot of businesses depend on supplying the parts for ICE vehicles and they will fight hard to survive. But it has happened before, like when's the last time you bought points and a condenser? The early portion of my career revolved around auto and heavy equipment parts and that whole supply chain will have to radically change to survive. But the only constant is change, right?
 
Record earnings on 30% revenue growth.
Stimulus looking like 50/50.
Potential for S&P inclusion announcement.
All in an 8 day window!

Blue wave in 2 weeks looking like 50/50.

Cheer up!
Pardon me, forgot to mention full self-driving was released literally today. Going to be interesting to see how people react to YouTube videos tomorrow.
 
I don't now if this is related to the re-write or not but I've noticed some interesting improvements that just showed in one of my two last updates even though the release notes did not purport to include any new features. I'm sharing this here because I think it's relevant to investors, at least in a general way.

First, a little background: I test AP regularly in my Model 3 on an undivided mountain highway (SR 542 east of Glacier, WA) that is marked 50 mph but has a lot of corners that would have 35 mph signs if marked. The turns are very blind with inconsistent radii and a lot of elevation changes. It's the kind of road that expert drivers love and timid drivers have a certain amount of trepidation while driving it due to inconsistent and often sharp curves, poor sightlines, lack of wide shoulders, large trees and boulders immediately adjacent to the lane markings and the somewhat narrow width (for a State highway). Fortunately, it often has zero traffic on it or I wouldn't be activating AP on it.

Before this recent update (2020.40.4) I had not noticed any improvement in AP behavior in this environment for a long time, perhaps around a year, and had become resigned that Tesla was putting all resources into the re-write and I wouldn't see any improvement until the major rewrite was available. I had Version 3 of the FSD computer installed by Tesla service back in June and, of course, behavior did not change at all. While it could almost always drive the road without intervention, it would take amateur lines around the corners and have inconsistent speed changes that were unsettling, most often approaching corners at a high speed and then suddenly applying the brakes rather forcefully right before a corner and finishing the corner at too low of a speed and taking too long to re-establish the speed even with a clear view down the road. While it was impressive that it could do it at all, it was not comforting or reassuring, particularly the odd positioning of the vehicle in the lane at times and the erratic speed changes.

Until the recent update. Last night after dark I took her for a spin and the difference was surprising! Most of the unsettling behavior was completely absent. This was not an improvement that can be well quantified (ie. ability to recognize stop signs or to navigate a roundabout) but it was like going from a 12 year old driver's first drive to a somewhat experienced driver who seemed like they knew what they were doing. The road was wet and had a lot of leaves scattered about and there was a light mist, not enough to hinder sight significantly, and it was pitch black, with only the light from my headlights to light the road. I set AP to 48 mph which was an appropriate cruising speed for a human driver in the same conditions except for some slowing on sharper corners. The lane positioning was improved and the lines around the corners were smoother and more consistent and the car would slow for corners much more appropriately, I was actually blown away! It would take the wider corners at the set speed and only slow down for the sharper corners. The most noticeable improvements were two things; more natural lines through the corners and more natural speed changes entering and leaving corners (better speed management overall).

I'm not sure why it would improve like this before the major re-write but I suspect the rewrite uses building blocks built-into current versions so it makes sense to continue developing these on the side so they can incorporate them as the re-write is being perfected. This update is one that makes me think FSD will happen sooner rather than later. I'm eagerly anticipating the full rewrite now!
Thanks for the update!
 
Pardon me, forgot to mention full self-driving was released literally today. Going to be interesting to see how people react to YouTube videos tomorrow.
Are we assuming there are no NDA? Seems pretty difficult to shot a video without Tesla being able to find out which car it was. Not saying that nobody will but I'm not expecting a flood of videos.
 
I now see how retired people spend their time.

That might seem funny but I doubt I would have retired at age 37 (and still be retired) if I didn't spend a significant amount of time researching my largest holdings, both online and in the real world.

That's also why we have, not one, but two Cybertrucks with early reservation numbers. At least, that's what I told my wife. :cool:
 
I don't now if this is related to the re-write or not but I've noticed some interesting improvements that just showed in one of my two last updates even though the release notes did not purport to include any new features. I'm sharing this here because I think it's relevant to investors, at least in a general way.

First, a little background: I test AP regularly in my Model 3 on an undivided mountain highway (SR 542 east of Glacier, WA) that is marked 50 mph but has a lot of corners that would have 35 mph signs if marked. The turns are very blind with inconsistent radii and a lot of elevation changes. It's the kind of road that expert drivers love and timid drivers have a certain amount of trepidation while driving it due to inconsistent and often sharp curves, poor sightlines, lack of wide shoulders, large trees and boulders immediately adjacent to the lane markings and the somewhat narrow width (for a State highway). Fortunately, it often has zero traffic on it or I wouldn't be activating AP on it.

Before this recent update (2020.40.4) I had not noticed any improvement in AP behavior in this environment for a long time, perhaps around a year, and had become resigned that Tesla was putting all resources into the re-write and I wouldn't see any improvement until the major rewrite was available. I had Version 3 of the FSD computer installed by Tesla service back in June and, of course, behavior did not change at all. While it could almost always drive the road without intervention, it would take amateur lines around the corners and have inconsistent speed changes that were unsettling, most often approaching corners at a high speed and then suddenly applying the brakes rather forcefully right before a corner and finishing the corner at too low of a speed and taking too long to re-establish the speed even with a clear view down the road. While it was impressive that it could do it at all, it was not comforting or reassuring, particularly the odd positioning of the vehicle in the lane at times and the erratic speed changes.

Until the recent update. Last night after dark I took her for a spin and the difference was surprising! Most of the unsettling behavior was completely absent. This was not an improvement that can be well quantified (ie. ability to recognize stop signs or to navigate a roundabout) but it was like going from a 12 year old driver's first drive to a somewhat experienced driver who seemed like they knew what they were doing. The road was wet and had a lot of leaves scattered about and there was a light mist, not enough to hinder sight significantly, and it was pitch black, with only the light from my headlights to light the road. I set AP to 48 mph which was an appropriate cruising speed for a human driver in the same conditions except for some slowing on sharper corners. The lane positioning was improved and the lines around the corners were smoother and more consistent and the car would slow for corners much more appropriately, I was actually blown away! It would take the wider corners at the set speed and only slow down for the sharper corners. The most noticeable improvements were two things; more natural lines through the corners and more natural speed changes entering and leaving corners (better speed management overall).

I'm not sure why it would improve like this before the major re-write but I suspect the rewrite uses building blocks built-into current versions so it makes sense to continue developing these on the side so they can incorporate them as the re-write is being perfected. This update is one that makes me think FSD will happen sooner rather than later. I'm eagerly anticipating the full rewrite now!
The interesting thing about AutoPilot is how things just vary so much. What you describe I experienced with the prior version (2020.40.3). It absolutely took corners differently and was more assertive -- and if it got the line wrong at first it corrected it quickly. The drive I took sounds similar to yours: back highway with very interesting curves. And yet I experienced all of that on the prior point version.

Now with 2020.40.4 there's an S curve of my daily drive that it has always struggled with, but with 2020.40.3 had gotten fairly good (it would stay in the lane, even in the final part of it) -- but now on 2020.40.4 it won't. It goes aggressively fast and right up to, if not over, the line. Because this is a fairly high traffic road I disengage almost every single time, but I do get chances occasionally to see how far it will go.

I'm really not sure what to make of the discrepancy where I saw the significant, marked improvement in 2020.40.3 and you didn't see it until 2020.40.4. But no question Tesla improved the performance of legacy autopilot considerably.
 
GM spends over $3 billion on advertising just in the US...

I'm curious as to what advertising is included in the $3B. I see/hear as many, if not more ads from dealerships as I do ads from the manufacturers. Obviously they're local buys rather than national buys but there's a lot of money being spent on advertising by the dealerships too. Is that in addition to the $3B or does some of the $3B go to the dealership ads?

I ask because I own a business and many of my suppliers are willing to chip in some money to pay for me running an ad for their product in our local media. Usually it consists of their ad copy with my logo/address at the bottom or in the corner - implying "available at". Gets both their product and my business in front of people's eyes. If the manufacturers have similar deals with their dealerships where the manufacturer chips in money for the dealership ads, then that could be a fairly large portion of the manufacturers' advertising spend. OTOH if the dealerships pay the full price on their ad buys and the manufacturer contributes nothing, then it wouldn't surprise me if total marketing spend by manufacturers + dealerships is double what the article is reporting. That would be an immense amount of money on advertising.

Last I checked, Tesla still doesn't have any dealerships, so I guess their dealerships advertising spend = $0.00...
 
I don't now if this is related to the re-write or not but I've noticed some interesting improvements that just showed in one of my two last updates even though the release notes did not purport to include any new features. I'm sharing this here because I think it's relevant to investors, at least in a general way.
.....
I'm not sure why it would improve like this before the major re-write but I suspect the rewrite uses building blocks built-into current versions so it makes sense to continue developing these on the side so they can incorporate them as the re-write is being perfected. This update is one that makes me think FSD will happen sooner rather than later. I'm eagerly anticipating the full rewrite now!

I think from reading on Tweeter, the new software is able to very accurately see and predict road features compared to the old software, which struggles to do it. Which is essentially the largest problems that we experience with the old software (I also have FSD computer in mine and share your similar experiences). But you have to consider that before FSD computer, there was only the AP2.0 ,2.5 computers which the old software was originally written for. That was brilliant for a while but Elon couldn't help himself: moonshot for new software.

Theory: Maybe Tesla is using the old software for the AP2.0,2.5, then using the new software for FSD computer. Would make sense as to why they would keep working on the old software to keep AP2.0, 2.5 folks happy. This is all conjecture on my part until FSD is released to the masses. My theory is thrown out if AP2.5 is able to use the new software.

Theory #2: When DOJO comes online, maybe 2nd re-write will come into play. DOJO is coming for your wife...girlfriend, help us.
 
I'm curious as to what advertising is included in the $3B. I see/hear as many, if not more ads from dealerships as I do ads from the manufacturers. Obviously they're local buys rather than national buys but there's a lot of money being spent on advertising by the dealerships too. Is that in addition to the $3B or does some of the $3B go to the dealership ads?
My understanding is that the dealer gets a percentage of advertising costs back from the manufacturer for running approved ads and also having a certain amount of vehicle purchases.
 
That's not correct on several levels.

NoA isn't competent enough to do the job at L4 for one- it's possible the re-write version will be, but the current one still hits stopped vehicles and has no concept of object permenance.


Additionally- L4 requires never needing a human to take over. It would need to be able safely park itself, legally and out of traffic, if it realized it was leaving its operational domain to be L4. The current system if you ignore the nags just stops and parks itself in an active interstate lane.

Personally- from the perspective of both an owner and an investor- what will really make folks take notice is if the re-write is good enough they move to L3 highway driving.

"You can turn it on, and read a book or watch a movie while the car drives on the highway"

That's game changing compared to how good of an L2 system you have versus anybody else.

And I absolutely think the re-write potentially can do that (though I suspect it'll be somewhat weather limited- given how poorly the cameras handle heavy rain or snow).

That doesn't get you robotaxis, which is a much heavier lift technology-advancement wise... but it'll get you a LOT of attention and a LOT of people badly wanting your vehicles... which is a good thing right when you're planning to massively scale up how many you're building.
You may not believe it, but what I said comes from the standard. I registered, got the actual standard -- not the infographics that get passed around -- and read it.

The only "gotcha" was the one I mentioned -- assigning responsibility. If your only contention was that NoA isn't good enough for Tesla to switch that -- well, no disagreement from me. And that isn't exactly a small caveat. But it is the only caveat.

You are wrong in your assertion about the requirement for Level 4 and you seem to miss on Level 3. But as it isn't directly relevant to investing if you want to continue off this list I'd be happy to. Or, if you really care about it, get the specification and read it yourself. I found it to be quite interesting.
 
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I don't now if this is related to the re-write or not but I've noticed some interesting improvements that just showed in one of my two last updates even though the release notes did not purport to include any new features. I'm sharing this here because I think it's relevant to investors, at least in a general way.

First, a little background: I test AP regularly in my Model 3 on an undivided mountain highway (SR 542 east of Glacier, WA) that is marked 50 mph but has a lot of corners that would have 35 mph signs if marked. The turns are very blind with inconsistent radii and a lot of elevation changes. It's the kind of road that expert drivers love and timid drivers have a certain amount of trepidation while driving it due to inconsistent and often sharp curves, poor sightlines, lack of wide shoulders, large trees and boulders immediately adjacent to the lane markings and the somewhat narrow width (for a State highway). Fortunately, it often has zero traffic on it or I wouldn't be activating AP on it.

Before this recent update (2020.40.4) I had not noticed any improvement in AP behavior in this environment for a long time, perhaps around a year, and had become resigned that Tesla was putting all resources into the re-write and I wouldn't see any improvement until the major rewrite was available. I had Version 3 of the FSD computer installed by Tesla service back in June and, of course, behavior did not change at all. While it could almost always drive the road without intervention, it would take amateur lines around the corners and have inconsistent speed changes that were unsettling, most often approaching corners at a high speed and then suddenly applying the brakes rather forcefully right before a corner and finishing the corner at too low of a speed and taking too long to re-establish the speed even with a clear view down the road. While it was impressive that it could do it at all, it was not comforting or reassuring, particularly the odd positioning of the vehicle in the lane at times and the erratic speed changes.

Until the recent update. Last night after dark I took her for a spin and the difference was surprising! Most of the unsettling behavior was completely absent. This was not an improvement that can be well quantified (ie. ability to recognize stop signs or to navigate a roundabout) but it was like going from a 12 year old driver's first drive to a somewhat experienced driver who seemed like they knew what they were doing. The road was wet and had a lot of leaves scattered about and there was a light mist, not enough to hinder sight significantly, and it was pitch black, with only the light from my headlights to light the road. I set AP to 48 mph which was an appropriate cruising speed for a human driver in the same conditions except for some slowing on sharper corners. The lane positioning was improved and the lines around the corners were smoother and more consistent and the car would slow for corners much more appropriately, I was actually blown away! It would take the wider corners at the set speed and only slow down for the sharper corners. The most noticeable improvements were two things; more natural lines through the corners and more natural speed changes entering and leaving corners (better speed management overall).

I'm not sure why it would improve like this before the major re-write but I suspect the rewrite uses building blocks built-into current versions so it makes sense to continue developing these on the side so they can incorporate them as the re-write is being perfected. This update is one that makes me think FSD will happen sooner rather than later. I'm eagerly anticipating the full rewrite now!

@StealthP3D interesting observations. I’ll put my car through some of the same driving. Give me a day or two, I’ll report back.
 
That might seem funny but I doubt I would have retired at age 37 (and still be retired) if I didn't spend a significant amount of time researching my largest holdings, both online and in the real world.

That's also why we have, not one, but two Cybertrucks with early reservation numbers. At least, that's what I told my wife. :cool:
Unless you tell us if you started with $1 Billion or $1 Million that doesn't say much.