Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rb48888]

Arggh. I fat fingered a trade. Meant to sell to close a single DITM call, accidentally closed many.

I guess it's ok. I was planning to just sell enough to exercise the rest next year for tax purposes, but maybe I'm better off paying Long Term rates this year instead. Ugh - At least they weren't short term.

Now suddenly I have to figure out if I buy here or wait.

 

[gabeincal]

Arggh. I fat fingered a trade. Meant to sell to close a single DITM call, accidentally closed many.

I guess it's ok. I was planning to just sell enough to exercise the rest next year for tax purposes, but maybe I'm better off paying Long Term rates this year instead. Ugh - At least they weren't short term.

Now suddenly I have to figure out if I buy here or wait.

A) meant to happen
B) call your broker. They might be able to help

 

[Jeff Ferris]

According to the 3rd quarter report, total production capacity is currently 840K units annually or 210K units per quarter. In order to reach the 500K target for 2020, only 180K units are required. 500K appears to be a slam dunk.

And, with oncoming production additions, it appears that 1,000K units, yes one million units are possible in 2021. Tesla has reached critical mass. There is no limiting factor for worldwide growth. The naysayers will finally have to admit defeat.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I have beers with a guy at the local brewpub who always asks me how Elon is coming along with Full Self Driving. At least I did pre-pandemic. He's about 55 and pretty independent for a blind person. He mostly gets around by himself with a white cane, the ferry and his own two feet. But he also gets rides from his wife, friends and taxis. So you can see why he is sitting on the edge of his seat waiting for FSD to be reality. He wants this bad. He is of relatively moderate means but I bet he would be willing to pay $10,000 EVERY SINGLE YEAR for FSD. Fortunately, Elon is not going to charge more for people with special needs!

There are millions of Americans in similar situations. Blind people, those with uncontrollable epilepsy, people who no longer trust themselves behind the wheel, etc. But, yeah, your average teacher or janitor is not likely to pay $10K for it. The bulk of the value is in autonomous taxis for the masses. And in that application it's worth a lot more than $10K just as it is for people who can't drive.

I haven't read the FSD purchase/sale agreement. Does it prohibit commercial use if you buy it now for potential autonomous robo-fleets? If not, it's a potential goldmine that will mint a number of multi-millionaires with their own autonomous taxi fleets. I wouldn't discount Elon's statement that a new Tesla with FSD will become an appreciating asset too heavily. He might be wrong, things might unfold differently than he anticipated, but his statement has to be afforded a certain amount of weight. If potential fleet operators wait until FSD is approved to buy it, who knows how much it will cost. Common sense says Tesla will sell if for commercial use at market value. Which would make it a lot more difficult to become a multi-millionaire with autonomous taxis (you would need a much larger fleet).

My understanding of the eventual Tesla Robo agreements is that it's for Tesla Network only. Unless it's a hack, why would they let others in on Tesla's huge investments in FSD? The model you describe is still possible within their network, and Elon has estimated $30K annual profit after all expenses, per vehicle. However, buying it when I did for $5K in 2016, mine has tremendous ROI. The assumption is that his $30K includes fully realize cost of FSD at time of fleet deployment.

So grab 'em while you can! Just 3 more days.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

This is a longer test of FSD, zero driver engagements and a variety of situations. Reasonable production with a slightly annoying commentary.

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m waiting for people to complain that it signals for every lane change and turn - because humans sure don’t, that it comes to a full stop for every red light and stop sign - because humans don’t do that, and so on.

Is it wrong for people to say FSD should more closely mimic human driving?

I suppose Tesla could make it more human like if that's what people demand. There could even be economic benefits. Let's see, how about during easy sections of highway driving without much going on, Tesla could reduce the attention FSD applies to the task at hand and think about other things. It could use the extra compute operations to mine bitcoins when it feels full attention is not required. Think of the profit! This lack of attention would mimic distracted driving and bring the accident rate more in line with human drivers. The simulation would be complete!

 

[BriansTesla]

No, I did not say it was worse than an OEM nor did I say you said that.

Humbling? Can not laugh any harder. Somebody made a mistake? Sure.
Does that person even still work for Tesla? Unknown.
Will it be fixed in future iterations of the car as soon as it’s identified and a solution discovered? Duh. I guarantee that’s a whole lot faster than OEMs.
Is it a big deal? Absolutely not in the scheme of things.
Does it make Tesla like every other OEM? (Which is exactly what you said) No.
Do we feel empathy for those dealing with the issue in their vehicles? Depends.

Here's something to compare to:

A History Of GM's Ignition Switch Defect 2001-2014

General Motors Co is grappling with a crisis over its decade-long failure to recall cars equipped with faulty ignition switches. The flaw could cause engines to shut off, leading to a sudden loss of power steering and power brakes, and the failure of air bags to deploy in a crash. So far, GM has attributed at least 61 crashes and 16 deaths to switch-related malfunctions. It was only in February of this year that GM finally began recalling 2.6 million Chevrolet Cobalts, Saturn Ions and other older models equipped with the faulty switches.

 

[Mike Smith]

Arggh. I fat fingered a trade. Meant to sell to close a single DITM call, accidentally closed many.

I guess it's ok. I was planning to just sell enough to exercise the rest next year for tax purposes, but maybe I'm better off paying Long Term rates this year instead. Ugh - At least they weren't short term.

Now suddenly I have to figure out if I buy here or wait.

Thank you for informing us about this situation.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Here's one

Twitter

I'm heading out for a bit so I'll get the links to a couple others later today

Wow, interesting read. I'm seeing a microcosm of things discussed in TMC and Headlines.
Both sides seem well versed in both the latest FUD and the Facts. But then FUD loses an argument to fact, and so conversation quickly changes to something negative unrelated to the discussion. Who knows how much of it is sincere vs media madness!

 

[Rb48888]

Thank you for informing us about this situation.

Just a reminder to double check your confirmation screens before finalizing your orders, I guess.

E*trade is looking into reversing the mistake. Thanks @gabeincal, I was in a bit of shock.

Edit: They were able to reverse my mistake. Back to long and strong. Sheesh.

 

[Tslynk67]

Kim posted a daytime beta-FSD on a roundabout (In and around the lake, mountains come out of the sky and they stand there)

https://twitter.com/kimpaquette/status/1319663469860356096?s=21

 

[mickificki]

Gene Munster interview with Matt Joyce:

 

[Mike Ambler]

I guess they won't stop innovating until Tesla Revenues equal 100% of Global GDP.

Buy n Large

 

[Causalien]

When Standard 2D holds, why use 3?
It's like using 50MA, 100 MA, 200 MA in sequence as each breaks/supports ...

I use it for other purposes and as signal input for program trading. You guys use it to see potential daily peak in ups and down right?

 

[SOULPEDL]

One really should not follow what is in print about max pain. It moves around everyday all day. I don't know how many times that has to be explained before it is figured out. Also 430 is an average of many groups. We have no clue who has the power. For the entire week THEY were not concerned about 430 altho THEY would have made extra profits if it closed there.

I would expect this to push up to >$420 but THEY are not really bothering to push the stock around this week because as many have tried to explain before THEY are only interested in the money they make off premiums. They already have the stock to hand out at a average price significantly UNDER whatever people can push it up or down to.

Note I think 420 PUTS went up slightly and CALL under that went down.

Now if we had dropped into the $3xx price range I think THEY would have felt some pain.

What I do find interesting is the complete lack of interest in the stock. Analysts are not panning this ER. They are saying it was a great quarter. The only ones saying anything negative are the people that even the idiots know are idiots and that's why the price is following macros with the typical TSLA multiple. I really thought the price had not factored in some of the things that were accomplished this past quarter. Next week will indicate that for sure. If everything was priced in then these low $400s is where we hang around until positive news on the macro side or from TSLA..... or negative.


Does anyone think that maybe people are holding off waiting for the first FSD beta accident? I know to you and me that is a trivial thing but maybe since FSD beta is out there is a general fear that there will be some major accident in the news and that will tank the price. Your thought?


FRI graph from this morning....
View attachment 601635

Thursday....
View attachment 601636

There is hope still for $430...

 

[elasalle]

Max Pain 430 callin!!

 

[Rammstein]

I'll believe in Tesla fsd, when it'll take you to the best pizza parlor in Calgary when asked

Haha that will be the next huge AI problem after FSD. Tesla AI team will solve where the best places to eat at in each city. Then I will be out of a job.

 

[LTC_RRR]

Airbags were one recall i recall.

This suspension recall is minor. Stock market is just doing its usual nonsense.

I can't recall the recall that you recalled

 

[Drumheller]

I can't recall the recall that you recalled

Takata airbags. Large recall for several manufacturers over several model years. Affected my 2013 model s. Tesla took care of it while I was having other service done.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I am sure you probably read the fine print in the last scene of the commercial
"Simulated vehicle shown, actual production model might vary"
Elon always says that making prototypes is easy , the hard part is putting them into production.
Looks like GM couldn't even make a prototype?

... and he also said this week that he strives to make the production version BETTER than the Reveal version.
We know what the norm is, so can't wait to see the actuals with GM.

And I was a Chevy man that stopped wearing their shirts. The "Heartbeat of America" was their tagline, as they must pass it now to Tesla.