Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

All my best trades are when I'm drunk...

Same with all my best posts. Until I wake up and they’ve all been deleted by the mods.

 

[capster]

Tesla has already said they expect to recognize the remaining deferred revenue at the end of this year if they release feature complete FSD...even though it still would require driver monitoring.

So its just not my thoughts. I'm going off of what Tesla themselves have said

I recall hearing something along that line, but not anything about 100%. Perhaps you have a link or other reference, please?

Personally, I don’t think it would be a good look for Tesla to take 100% as it would suggest that they are ‘done.’ I don’t think they think so.

I’ve always taken them at their word: Full Self Driving. No nonsense about levels or blah, blah.

When the cars drive themselves and drivers can attend to other things or sleep or whatever, then it makes sense for Tesla to realize the revenue to the last penny, imho.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla has already said they expect to recognize the remaining deferred revenue at the end of this year if they release feature complete FSD...even though it still would require driver monitoring.

So its just not my thoughts. I'm going off of what Tesla themselves have said

I don't believe that is what they said.

They said they expect to recognize MOST of the deferred revenue- not all of it.

If I had to speculate it'd be the amount collected on FSD sales since they changed the listed product features around Feb/March 2019.

If they release some version of what we see in the early beta they could recognize all revenue of sales since then.... but not on sales prior to that because the older product promised a much higher level of features to buyers (essentially there's some revenue they won't be able to realize until they deliver L4 self driving to those folks)

The good news for the financials is the amount collected on the "old" product is fairly low (this was when it was only $3000 to add FSD at purchase) and would be a minority of the total fleet by this point anyway.

Technically true, but even if just using lidar as secondary, it likely puts them out of the race economically. Evolution produced creatures with good vision and also bats. I know of no creatures with good vision AND bat capabilities. It’s not efficient.

This is not correct-

Many bats have excellent vision AND echolocation- Rousettus aegyptiacus, the Egyptian fruit bat, for example.

Nature takes many paths.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla has already said they expect to recognize the remaining deferred revenue at the end of this year if they release feature complete FSD...even though it still would require driver monitoring.

So its just not my thoughts. I'm going off of what Tesla themselves have said

I remember something to that effect. Deferred revenue recognized when development of all features was completed, not necessarily training.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't believe that is what they said.

They said they expect to recognize MOST of the deferred revenue- not all of it.

If I had to speculate it'd be the amount collected on FSD sales since they changed the listed product features around Feb/March 2019.

If they release some version of what we see in the early beta they could recognize all revenue of sales since then.... but not on sales prior to that because the older product promised a much higher level of features to buyers (essentially there's some revenue they won't be able to realize until they deliver L4 self driving to those folks)

The good news for the financials is the amount collected on the "old" product is fairly low (this was when it was only $3000 to add FSD at purchase) and would be a minority of the total fleet by this point anyway.






This is not correct-

Many bats have excellent vision AND echolocation- Rousettus aegyptiacus, the Egyptian fruit bat, for example.

Nature takes many paths.

I'll have to go back and read through the earnings call where they said that. I believe it was Q2 earnings. They might have said "Most". But I would still argue that "most" would mean 75% or more. As was pointed out a few pages earlier, they would only be able to recognize this majority of revenue for the North American market.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I recall hearing something along that line, but not anything about 100%. Perhaps you have a link or other reference, please?

Personally, I don’t think it would be a good look for Tesla to take 100% as it would suggest that they are ‘done.’ I don’t think they think so.

I’ve always taken them at their word: Full Self Driving. No nonsense about levels or blah, blah.

When the cars drive themselves and drivers can attend to other things or sleep or whatever, then it makes sense for Tesla to realize the revenue to the last penny, imho.

It's definitely a subjective thing based on everyone's individual view of it. I personally don't see any issue with them collecting 90% of the revenue(in the market where public fsd build is available) because the functionality is all there. It would definitely depend on the state of the FSD public build at that point.

If people are having to intervene constantly....than no I don't think Tesla should recognize most of the revenue, even if all the features are there. But if the FSD public build is getting people around 90% of the time without an intervention, then I see no issue. I do think people that are going to be using their Tesla FSD is very difficult situations on a daily basis should have tempered expectations in terms of how much they have to intervene. But those people will make up a small percentage of FSD users

 

[Mike Ambler]

I'm in touch with Karen and it seems that Twitter decided she was a bot. She's followed all the procedures to reopen there account, but Twitter aren't responding.

Maybe she would come back. We know she's not a bot

 

[BigPeePee]

$20 trillion? I'm a bull, but that is absurdly silly unless you are expecting a large bout of inflation coming.

You do realize that the entire market cap of all companies in the US is about $26 trillion?

It's actually $36 trillion and grows by 7% per year on average.

The relative size of the pie isn't what you should focus on. You should focus on the business model, which turns cars into investments rather than depreciating assets.

 

[Intl Professor]

We should band together and buy a country at one point.
Tired of dealing with gas guzzlers.

How about starting with our own?

 

[jerry33]

How about starting with our own?

The previous owners trashed it, and didn't have a security deposit.

 

[BrianZ]

You can place an order now and then go into delay when Tesla contacts you and says your car is in production, etc., but I'm not sure if they'll honor your order for 18 months at today's prices, I believe your order price will change as they change pricing for the car, paint colors, wheels, etc. overr time. I'm guessing they create a window within which they'll honor FSD pricing and then it will migrate to the current price if you haven't purchased in that window. Others here may have more experience and can correct me if I'm wrong.

I know we put down $2,500 for a Model Y and have been contacted multiple times by TSLA to finalize the order and we haven't, and it looks to me like the pricing, range, etc. keeps updating as Tesla makes changes.

If I were you'd I'd wait the 18 months. Based on history, it's quite possible the price of the Model 3 SR Plus will have come down $2K over that time period while FSD has gone from $8K to $10K. So it's possible it's a wash. It's when Tesla announces a price shift for FSD to $40K, indicating the car is a robotaxi and capable of making its owner significant $, which will indicate your time to act. Is that within 18 months? Can't say, not impossible, not highly probable, somewhere in between.

I've specifically asked my Tesla rep for this. You can put in an order, and not take delivery for up to a year and your price will be secured.

 

[lafrisbee]

As a follow-up to the earlier-mentioned apparent bias of the FSD-beta towards those with high-volume YouTube accounts, a similar question:

Does anyone know or can anyone determine if there are any beta-testers who are NOT located in California?


From your average grumpy Superchargeless Alaskan......

youtube Zeb Hallock

 

[lafrisbee]

Maybe she would come back. We know she's not a bot

the issue back then was our Mods were forced to be robotic(bots). I'd love me some of that girl...and bring factchecker with her....surely she's seen how much cooler the mods are now...and she is being cruel to meeeeeeeeeee! I hate having to go to twitter. It just isn't as good a format for the subject of Tesla.
Please KAREN please please please....please

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Is the FSD price going up tomorrow? Or is it Thursday like someone said? I’m seriously thinking about pulling the trigger. I think it would add at least $4000 of value to my car, so it’s really only like spending $4000 instead of $8000. As an investor I need to be able to watch firsthand how Tesla is progressing, and to me that seems like a good enough reason to blow some money I’ll probably never miss. I especially won’t miss $8,000 if the stock price is at $40,000 in ten years.

 

[kengchang]

Is the FSD price going up tomorrow? Or is it Thursday like someone said? I’m seriously thinking about pulling the trigger. I think it would add at least $4000 of value to my car, so it’s really only like spending $4000 instead of $8000. As an investor I need to be able to watch firsthand how Tesla is progressing, and to me that seems like a good enough reason to blow some money I’ll probably never miss. I especially won’t miss $8,000 if the stock price is at $40,000 in ten years.

Thursday

 

[Singuy]

Tesla has already said they expect to recognize the remaining deferred revenue at the end of this year if they release feature complete FSD...even though it still would require driver monitoring.

So its just not my thoughts. I'm going off of what Tesla themselves have said

The 600+ million they said they will recognize is probably not all. That was from a 10k 2020 guide in which they were expecting at the time to deliver like 530-550k cars. If the deferred revenue started at 500+ million in end of 2019, another 550k cars added to the fleet WITH increase pricing projected would probably add another 500 million dollars of deferred revenue on top of the 500 million. So I don't think they were projecting to realize all of it, but maybe 60% of it after FSD beta.

 

[rsm287]

I mean, OK on evolution and all, but I'm pretty sure my Tesla has a radar in it. In fact, there was just a story that they're upgrading the radar. Why would they do that if there was no value in any autopilot sensors other than cameras (vision)?

Because radar allows you to see through fog, dust, rain and snow. Tesla have quite a detailed blog post about radar here.

 

[BigPeePee]

no i’m saying that states don’t allow insurance companies to deviate from the entrenched method of applying insurance premiums to customers

(basically tesla’s going to say, our model works better due to the data we obtain, it’s more logistically sound, it’s rooted in data and facts not actuary tables...insurance regulations will say no, or prove it, or scream privacy, or...name it)

but before i get too far ahead of myself, i know zip about the topic.
only enough from my conversation yesterday that insurance won’t be a slam dunk - and it deserves a thread that can be developed and fine tuned over time

well, not a jordan slam dunk.
and sure as hell hopefully not a george tenet slam dunk
(sorry george, if you’re reading)

While I can't say what variables and methods Tesla can use in their pricing, the biggest savings will come from having a safer insured pool. I'm an actuary in a different field, so I'm not privy on the regulations in auto insurance.

Tesla may still have to price by group characteristics such as age band, but as claims overall will be lower the premiums will also be lower.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm in touch with Karen and it seems that Twitter decided she was a bot.

She seems to get that a lot.

I have to admit, I'm a huge tesla bull, think the company is amazing, unstoppable etc, think my investment is very safe, and likely to go up a lot in the next year or two...

But the FSB beta roll-out HAS suprised me. Its much, much better than I expected (judging by videos). I've seen it slow down for speed bumps, drive at night-time, during the day, navigate roundabouts, loads of stuff I thought was a long way off.
I simply think that people have hyped up FSD (not just tesla, buy waymo etc), SO MUCH over the last year or two, that a lot of people in the media and the competition and wall street are just not bothering to watch what we are watching.

This is a HUGE step forward for the company's valuation. I don't really care that much about autopilot as an investor, but others do, and there is a massive disruption happening here. If a huge chunk of lyft and uber stock doesnt get sold and converted to tsla stock soon, its just proof nobody is paying attention.

Tempted to short both.

Agreed with respect to the state of FSD. I think some of this is an element of the frog in the boiling water - people have been exposed to a varying degree of FSD-like behavior in cars for long enough, and the final goal is so far fetched as to inspire incredulity that it could be solved this quickly, that it can be easy to overlook just how tantalizingly close the final goal really is.

It seems to me that all of the fundamental building blocks for FSD are there with the beta; now it’s a question of whether or not behavior can be tuned, the edge cases can be ironed out, and whether current hardware is, or can be made, sufficient. I think the answers to those questions is “yes,” and I think we may all be surprised by just how quickly that becomes more obvious.

 

[corduroy]

I especially won’t miss $8,000 if the stock price is at $40,000 in ten years.

If the SP is $40,000 in 10 years, that $8k would have made $762,000. You might miss that.