Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

Doubling market cap at that size is so difficult - Elon will have to take his magic to a whole new level.

If history is any guide, he just needs to announce another stock split.

 

[Artful Dodger]

@#$% can you imagine the recharge time?

Fly 500 miles . . . charge 4 hours.

OT: Charge rate

Lol, current Tesla/Panasonic batteries charge at 3C. That's fly 3 hrs, charge 1 hr. Aviation batteries will be better. So more like 5 hrs for a transcontinental flight, and 60 min charging. That's well within the turnaround time for most airlines.

But there will be no supersonic jets flying over the U.S. mainland. That's why Concorde only flew trans-Atlantic routes, since they could create sonic booms over international waters with no Country able to claim sovereignty of standing to initiate a complaint.

Supersonic is wasteful anyway. With Starlink 1Gbit connectivity, the airliner is a flying conference room, on the way to your business contract signing ceremony.

Trans-oceanic will be the domain of Starship 'Point-to-Point'. LA to Sydney in 30 min instead of 14 hrs. And the new Raptor engines burn renewable few, potentially created with solar-energy. If SpaceX can solve or mitigate the noise footprint issues, this transportation system has real advantages. And profitable, too.

Cheers!

 

[FireMedic]

OT: Charge rate

Lol, current Tesla/Panasonic batteries charge at 3C. That's fly 3 hrs, charge 1 hr. Aviation batteries will be better. So more like 5 hrs for a transcontinental flight, and 60 min charging. That's well within the turnaround time for most airlines.

But there will be no supersonic jets flying over the U.S. mainland. That's why Concorde only flew trans-Atlantic routes, since they could create sonic booms over international waters with no Country able to claim sovereignty of standing to initiate a complaint.

Supersonic is wasteful anyway. With Starlink 1Gbit connectivity, the airliner is a flying conference room, on the way to your business contract signing ceremony.

Trans-oceanic will be the ream of Starship Point-to-Point. LA to Sydney in 30 min instead of 14 hrs. And burns renewable few, potentially created with solar-energy. If SpaceX can solve the noise footprint issues, its got real advantages.

Cheers!

I thought the whole idea behind VTOL electric plane is that you could travel outside our atmosphere where you wouldn’t have any air resistance.
The only energy needed is to lift vertically to your travel altitude, generate the forward momentum, and then affect re-entry.
I’m a firefighter, not an aerospace engineer so; I’m clearly way out of my league here...I’m sure someone around here could (read: will) correct these statements.

 

[Intl Professor]

I think there are 3 5 MODS on this Forum (please correct me if I'm wrong):

1. @AudubonB
2. @ggr
3. @Intl Professor
4. @Right_Said_Fred

View attachment 602944

HTH.

I'm an extinguished mod. I resigned after my pacemaker some years ago, but nobody paid attention. I occasionally delete stuff, usually attack on another member.

 

[StealthP3D]

The transcript of what Elon said was posted earlier today. It is ridiculous how you are adding things that Elon did not say to push your viewpoint. I hope you're right about the future valuation, and I have learned quite a bit from your posts, but in this situation you are attempting to change what Elon said.

I'm confused because I only posted a direct quote from Elon. He was asked if Tesla would increase margins or lower the price of the cars. He said he thought they could do both - increase margins to above the industry norms AND lower prices.

The distortion of Elon's words was taking a near-term quarterly projection of margins in the 1-2% range and saying this applied all the way through 2030 when Elon obviously didn't intend it to apply that far into the future.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I thought the whole idea behind VTOL electric plane is that you could travel outside our atmosphere where you wouldn’t have any air resistance.
The only energy needed is to lift vertically to your travel altitude, generate the forward momentum, and then affect re-entry.
I’m a firefighter, not an aerospace engineer so; I’m clearly way out of my league here...I’m sure someone around here could (read: will) correct these statements.

No, typical eVTOL are atmospheric aircraft. The market usually discussed is urban air mobility - vertical takeoff/landing (like a helicopter) negates the need for a runway, but forward thrust would require electric props or some sort of RF/plasma jet. Depending on battery efficiency, these could evolve into regional aircraft.

 

[Pezpunk]

Legitimately, there is some heavy-handed moderating that goes on here.

I've literally been threatened with a ban . . . for click LIKE on a post. No joke.

I got put on probation for clicking a dislike. 3 of the four moderators here are very good.

 

[StealthP3D]

I got put on probation for clicking a dislike. 3 of the four moderators here are very good.

Which one's the bad one?

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Oct 27, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Trades in Narrow Channel; Vol at 49 Wk Low"

Traded: $9,708,593,555.43 ($9.71B)
Volume: 22,852,264
VWAP: $424.84

Close: $424.68 / VWAP: 99.96%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $402.555B / $185.974B = 216.46%

Note: Yahoo updated Mkt Cap today based on latest 10-Q (+11.142m shares for Cap Raise). The increase is about $4.73B due to the increase in outstanding shares. Google Charts has yet to update TSLA (still shows Mkt Cap at $395.72B)

​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $406.34 B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $283.46 B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) tracking for Nov 16, 2020​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 50.6% (50th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 35.7% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.31% of Short Volume (43rd Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Lowest TSLA volume since 2019-11-18 (345 days)"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Drumheller]

The distortion of Elon's words was taking a near-term quarterly projection of margins in the 1-2% range and saying this applied all the way through 2030 when Elon obviously didn't intend it to apply that far into the future.

How do you know what Elon intends? You're reading into it what you think is obvious but was not stated. That is the point several of us are trying to make. If you go by what Elon explicitly stated, all we know is the goal to get margins to 1 - 2 %

 

[LTC_RRR]

Imagine if Tesla corner bright engineers*, set up an internal parts bin, world experts in HVAC, casting, cells (other companies fail to scale), mining, materials science, Artificial Intelligence, cloud services (AI, Compute, Data), autonomous driving, robotaxis, insurance, flying, huge demand in Boring tunnels, pollution recognised as truly evil (ICE banned), cheap electricity, off grid homes, DNA/RNA replication, replace Boeing as USA (electric) airliners, enterprise software (based on internal systems/cloud scaling) etc

Using your calculator...

"Over the course of 10 years/months your investment grew from 400.0 to 40000.0. Its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 58.49 %"

The key part is... "other companies fail to scale" - a lesson Elon has learned is not to wait for others, let them grow/innovate but be ready to do the work himself. It is hard, maybe unlikely but.... it IS possible!

*young bright engineers know that Musk companies are the best, best work, least politics, least beancounters, best on CV, hard work, less wages, high stock options - but when poached, they are valued by others and have to be paid LOTS.

Somehow I feel like physics weighs against the notion of a 600 MPH airliner completely electric powered

 

[Thekiwi]

I have enjoyed reading all the takes on future valuations today - some crazy numbers here and there but entertaining nonetheless.

To contribute:

Elon has on numerous occasions said he would choose increasing unit volume over increasing profits, the goal is to constantly lower prices to enable more of the world to transition to EVs & Solar/battery tech ASAP. Of course it requires adequate supply to pull off.

Even with high gross margins, their is ample precedent to manage down net profits close to zero to maximise cash usage. One only needs to look at Amazon, which generated plenty of cashflow but actively avoided showing net profit for a long time while it plowed all excess cash into growth opportunities. (One obvious reason to do this is to avoid a large chunk of your cashflow heading out the door as income tax, and instead use that cash to support growth.)

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Somehow I feel like physics weighs against the notion of a 600 MPH airliner completely electric powered

I’m not going to get too much into this, but you have to remember that an electric motor does not need air for combustion. Therefore an electric jet can fly at much higher altitudes where air resistance is significantly lower, which in turn reduces the amount of energy needed to move the aircraft forward. So yes, it will be possible.

 

[StealthP3D]

How do you know what Elon intends?

Because I listened to the conference call. He was obviously answering the analyst question about what to expect in coming quarters. I consider that a fact because when you have been listening to the earnings calls of various companies for over 30 years, you understand the language they use and what they are talking about, there was no ambiguity there. Now here's my opinion: He was under-promising so, if all goes as he expects, he can over-deliver.

You're reading into it what you think is obvious but was not stated. That is the point several of us are trying to make. If you go by what Elon explicitly stated, all we know is the goal to get margins to 1 - 2 %

Yes, in the near-term. He was not addressing a decade out. Obviously.

 

[LTC_RRR]

I’m not going to get too much into this, but you have to remember that an electric motor does not need air for combustion. Therefore an electric jet can fly at much higher altitudes where air resistance is significantly lower, which in turn reduces the amount of energy needed to move the aircraft forward. So yes, it will be possible.

I'm out of my league here, but I recall once reading about a theoretical limit beyond which propeller blades stall.

 

[Thekiwi]

Somehow I feel like physics weighs against the notion of a 600 MPH airliner completely electric powered

We have a dedicated thread for electric aircraft, but EV airliners are entirely possible, it is only a question of range, but the majority of flights taken are shorthaul which is the obvious first target for an EV airliner , and longer haul can at least be helped from Hybrid-EV Airliners

EV Airliner (Wright1)

Hybrid EV Airliner (Airbus - 1 or 2 electric battery powered engines alongside traditional Jet engines)

 

[Krugerrand]

Which one's the bad one?

You get 4 guesses.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Which one's the bad one?

No. 2:

I think there are 3 5 MODS on this Forum (please correct me if I'm wrong):

1. @AudubonB
2. 
   
3. @ggr
4. @Intl Professor
5. @Right_Said_Fred

HTH.

Lol, let's drop this, folks. It's a dead-end street.

Cheers!

 

[printf42]

I'm confused because I only posted a direct quote from Elon. He was asked if Tesla would increase margins or lower the price of the cars. He said he thought they could do both - increase margins to above the industry norms AND lower prices.

The distortion of Elon's words was taking a near-term quarterly projection of margins in the 1-2% range and saying this applied all the way through 2030 when Elon obviously didn't intend it to apply that far into the future.

When Tesla opens up Dojo, they would be forced into being profitable.

History repeats:
AMZN was forced into being profitable when they opened up AWS to the world, even while they invest as much as they could.

Amazon had to figure out how to scale web services, which leads to AWS.
Tesla has to figure out how to scale AI training, which leads to Dojo.

When people start to leverage Dojo(and HW5, 6...10) as the backbone of their own business workflow, Tesla would be forced into being profitable too.

 

[Thekiwi]

Again, all the above is true

BUT, and its a big BUT you cannot compare the market cap of Tesla Energy with other energy companies in the same way that you cannot compare the market cap of Tesla automotive with GM or Toyota. And in the same way you cannot compare the market cap of Facebook with the New York Times.

Software changes everything. Couple that with the world's cheapest, most efficient batteries and 10,000s of the world's best engineers and it becomes difficult to replicate.

I have a family member who is an engineer at General Electric. When I talk Tesla with her, she doesnt even believe me. At General Electric, they can't even work out how to power their wind turbines when there is no wind. Right now, they need a mainline electricity connection in the middle of the ocean. I told her should have an integrated solar panel and battery when there is no wind to keep the turbine running and then do some simple software engineering to prioritise one energy over the other depending on the weather. She said that was impossible, they cannot innovate in real time and cant do anything with software internally, they buy it all in. Same difference between Tesla and the automakers

Can you clarify what exactly you mean about "keeping the turbine running" when there is no wind? Using a battery and/or solar to power a turbine in some fashion - which then produces electricity - seems like a terrible waste of energy when you could instead send that solar/battery electricity directly to the grid in the first place.