Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Intl Professor]

Somehow I feel like physics weighs against the notion of a 600 MPH airliner completely electric powered

There may be a way. Isolated reports of UFOs executing seemingly physically improbable sharp turns suggest, if an actual craft, that an advanced civilization has shortcuted a way to bend space for locative purposes. They call it "pinching space," if memory serves. Hence the term "a pinch in time saves nine." (Just someone's blathering old uncle.)

 

[Intl Professor]

OT
You may be thinking of what happens when airflow over props goes supersonic. It’s not a stall, but shock waves start forming in various places. The drag goes up a lot and efficiency drops.

Is that analogous to cavitation in ships' screws?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Once the price hits the point that ICE cars are utterly uncompetitive and undesirable, there is no point in lowering it further.

And yet Elon disagrees with you. He has been quite explicit that Tesla will attempt to make their cars more and more affordable. I expect that means that they will continue to push the price down until cars are free. In the best of all possible worlds a car will cost a subscription price only, and that will be tailored to be affordable to everybody.

So why do you keep making up these theories which are utterly at odds with what Elon has actually said? It's making you look pretty foolish.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon's going off the rails on Twitter again. Luckily, so far, he's just being sophomoric rather than sounding like he's off his meds. Let's hope it doesn't get worse.

 

[MC3OZ]

And yet Elon disagrees with you. He has been quite explicit that Tesla will attempt to make their cars more and more affordable. I expect that means that they will continue to push the price down until cars are free. In the best of all possible worlds a car will cost a subscription price only, and that will be tailored to be affordable to everybody.

So why do you keep making up these theories which are utterly at odds with what Elon has actually said? It's making you look pretty foolish.

There is a bit of a grey area here, because the implied purpose of lowering prices is to satisfy the mission, generating sufficient cash to reinvest strategically also benefits the mission, as well Elon eventually wants to settle Mars.

There is no conflict between lowering prices, making money, and satisfying the mission, IMO there is a lot of synergy.

I can see Tesla eventually walking the price of a base Model 3/Y down to around 30K.

Eventually walking a 25K Model 2 down to 20K.

Then making a 15K Model 1 with FSD.

In terms of the mission and affordable mobility for all FSD is essential, making a 15K car with FSD will be a challenge.
One way to do that is insist that all new purchases lease FSD for 3 years, that increases the TCO if the car is not used as a Robotaxi.

Assuming Tesla can achieve al this, I don't see why they need to go further, others can satisfy the sub 15K market.

Robotaxis are a subscription service available to everybody, that is an important part of the mission, and making cars more affordable.
A 15K Robotaxi with a 20 year usable life charged will solar power should be cheap to hire, with or without a driver.
My take on developing countries is a Robotaxi has a driver for as long as is necessary.. I still call it a Robtaxi as that is the eventual aim..

All we really know is Elon currently wants to make cars more affordable and that currently has a higher priority than profits.
Until they can make a 15K Model 1 with FSD that probably will not change.

However as I said above a lot of Elon's statements are open to interpretation, not about the current aims, but about future aims once the current aims have been satisfied.

IMO once the mission is essentially complete, it is a new ball game, time for the next mission.

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon's going off the rails on Twitter again. Luckily, so far, he's just being sophomoric rather than sounding like he's off his meds. Let's hope it doesn't get worse.

Mostly he seems to be talking about games, some of the tweets may be in jokes than only hard core gamers would get, as that excludes me, I can't be sure.

 

[EV forever]

Just saw this on Twitter

To sign up for the beta starlink, which is called “Better than nothing beta” you must first recognize Mars as a free planet. This is one of the terms and conditions you have to sign.

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1321264245674106880?s=21

 

[Ocelot]

Yes, let's attack the mods every time they do even a minimal amount of moderating with extremely easy to follow rules and someone pulls a juvenile 'I'm taking my ball and going home.. AND IT'S ALL THEIR FAULT!!' routine. I thank the mods for their efforts to keep this thread to a manageable 40 pages of posts per day and we shouldn't be discouraging them.

Of course not everyone will agree with every topic that is banned (there are thousands of users and two mods, so it's going to happen), but is it that difficult to just not post about it? Leaving the site completely because you can't handle not posting about a single topic or getting offended about it is ridiculous.

There is a difference between criticism and attacking.

 

[insaneoctane]

And don't forget supersonic electric jet. Elon keeps saying he wants to do it, every few month. Although if he does, maybe he'll start a new company or do it under SpaceX brand.

I don't know, Tesla jet has a nice ring to it

 

[RobStark]

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (10%, up 1%) has won precious ground over the runner-up Renault (9%), while Tesla (9%, up 1%) rose to the 3rd spot, at the expense of BMW (8%, down 1%), with the Bavarian maker falling from #3 to #5 in just one month, as the #4 Mercedes (8%, up 1%) and #5 Volvo (8%) have surpassed it in September.

EV Sales: Europe September 2020

 

[MikeAtkinson]

The key part is... "other companies fail to scale" - a lesson Elon has learned is not to wait for others, let them grow/innovate but be ready to do the work himself. It is hard, maybe unlikely but.... it IS possible!

This is key to Tesla's future prospects. I think it highly unlikely that other companies will scale.

To match Tesla mining, chemical processing, battery manufacturing, parts suppliers and OEMs all need to grow their EV business by 40% or more a year. This is just about unheard of for large manufacturers [*], even for a single year, and to keep it up year after year is unprecedented (as far as I know). To do this would require long term (decade long) plans, something that public companies are not good at.

The $40T hyper-bull case for 2030, relies on Tesla making 3 TWh of cells and buying another 3 TWh from other suppliers out of a total supply of about 20 TWh (or 30% of the total). If the other cell manufacturers cannot scale then Tesla would be in an even more dominant position.

[*] except in war time, USA, Russia, UK and Germany all increased plane and tank manufacturing at much more than this compound rate in WW II.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

OT: Charge rate

Lol, current Tesla/Panasonic batteries charge at 3C. That's fly 3 hrs, charge 1 hr. Aviation batteries will be better. So more like 5 hrs for a transcontinental flight, and 60 min charging. That's well within the turnaround time for most airlines.

Most power is used during take-off, supersonic cruise would require much less power. So 60 mins charging would be more than enough for long flights.

But there will be no supersonic jets flying over the U.S. mainland. That's why Concorde only flew trans-Atlantic routes, since they could create sonic booms over international waters with no Country able to claim sovereignty of standing to initiate a complaint.

Improvements in supersonic boom reduction and the ability of electric planes to fly higher probably mean that overflights are not audible.

 

[Christine69420]

According to WuWa Tesla is exporting car parts from Shanghai - not just complete cars:

Carrying 7,000 Model 3 exported to Europe, it was originally scheduled to set sail for the port of Zeebrugge in Belgium on October 27. This is just the beginning. In the future, the Shanghai plant will continue to provide overseas exports of complete vehicles and parts.

On the morning of the 27th, I rushed to the Haitong Wharf in the Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone in Shanghai. I hope to be able to take some pictures of Model 3 entering the WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN, although on the 26th, the local news media reported that Tesla held a grand shipboarding ceremony. , But I still have a glimmer of hope.

When I arrived at the scene, the parking lot was blank. I felt a little disappointed. The first batch of 7000 Tesla Model 3s exported to Europe were all shipped yesterday and waiting to set sail today. I raised the drone and searched the ground in the air. In the parking lot No. 5, I found dozens of Teslas parked there. These cars did not get on the WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN with other vehicles.

The netizens of YOUTUBE previously informed that in November, another batch of Tesla will be shipped to Europe. With the climbing growth of Tesla's Shanghai plant, while meeting the Chinese market, it has begun to undertake export business and play an important role. In the future, Shanghai plant will have more complete vehicles and parts exported to overseas.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Is that analogous to cavitation in ships' screws?

Way OT
Different physics. Cavitation occurs when a large enough decrease in water pressure on the back or tips of the prop (due to the shape of the prop - Bernoulli effect) causes gas bubbles to form - the water essentially boils. When these bubbles encounter higher pressure regions again, they implode and produce hydrodynamics shock waves. Noise, vibration and heat can beat up the prop.

The "wave drag" that occurs when aircraft prop airflow goes supersonic is caused by a nearly instantaneous increase in air pressure - shock waves form.

 

[MABMAB]

i

Elon's going off the rails on Twitter again. Luckily, so far, he's just being sophomoric rather than sounding like he's off his meds. Let's hope it doesn't get worse.

yeah the TMC mods should ban him for being salty

 

[jerry33]

I think there are 3 5 MODS on this Forum (please correct me if I'm wrong):

1. @AudubonB
2. @ggr
3. @Intl Professor
4. @Right_Said_Fred

HTH.

The issue, as I understand it, is that the messages are autogenerated rather than Mod generated, and the Mods have little control over what the message is. So it's the underlying system that needs help.

 

[jerry33]

I thought the whole idea behind VTOL electric plane is that you could travel outside our atmosphere where you wouldn’t have any air resistance.
The only energy needed is to lift vertically to your travel altitude, generate the forward momentum, and then affect re-entry.
I’m a firefighter, not an aerospace engineer so; I’m clearly way out of my league here...I’m sure someone around here could (read: will) correct these statements.

The main advantage of VTOL is no need for a large runway. You're thinking of rocket flight.

 

[amolina]

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (10%, up 1%) has won precious ground over the runner-up Renault (9%), while Tesla (9%, up 1%) rose to the 3rd spot, at the expense of BMW (8%, down 1%), with the Bavarian maker falling from #3 to #5 in just one month, as the #4 Mercedes (8%, up 1%) and #5 Volvo (8%) have surpassed it in September.

EV Sales: Europe September 2020

FLEET vs. PRIVATE ownership is important to think about. Just the sales number does not show the strategy plays many automakers would be playing under the hood. For eg. VW owns the brand "Weshare" which has about 2500 cars in Berlin alone. There total fleet size COULD be well over >10k. In essence, they are funding their electric Golf sales with their own venture investment money.
If we could get a breakdown of how many car sales were for FLEET vs. PRIVATE ownership, that would provide a better picture of demand in Europe.

I am not so well versed with the French Car sharing platforms, however, I can imagine Zoe would be a great vehicle for Car sharing as well. A simple google showed me this
Renault Zoe: Der Elektro-Bestseller wird Carsharing-fähig - autobild.de
Carsharing: ZITY arrives in Paris - Easy Electric Life

 

[Tslynk67]

Which one's the bad one?

 

[computerchuck]

Tesla Autopilot 'a distant second' to GM's Super Cruise in hands-free test: Consumer Reports
BY REUTERS — 6:08 AM ET
By Paul Lienert

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Co's (GM) Super Cruise once again edged Tesla's Autopilot in an evaluation of 17 vehicles equipped with active driving assistance systems (ADAS) by Consumer Reports, the testing organization said on Wednesday.

A Tesla Model Y fitted with Autopilot finished "a distant second," the group said, to a Cadillac CT6 equipped with Super Cruise, which GM is rolling out to more than 20 vehicles - including its new Hummer electric pickup truck - over the next three years.


In the latest test, conducted this summer on a track and on public roads, the Cadillac scored 69 points out of a possible 100, while the Tesla scored 57. A Lincoln Corsair equipped with Ford Motor Co's (F) Co-Pilot 360 system, finished third with 52.

The critical difference in the Super Cruise system is a driver-facing infrared camera to make sure he or she is paying attention to the road and is ready to take over manual control when necessary, said Kelly Funkhouser, head of connected and automated vehicle testing at Consumer Reports.