Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

Tesla's 4680 designs are not "frame integrated". They are structural, but still distinct packs that can be swapped out.

It would seem only in the sense that the entire structural floor and sub frame of a vehicle could be swapped out. If Tesla intends packs to last 1 million miles or so there is no reason for them to design or offer a pack replacement.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Nov 06, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Market Desensitizing to Spooky Election Noises"

Traded: $9,331,293,638.95 ($9.33B)
Volume: 21,723,470
VWAP: $429.55

Close: $429.95 / VWAP: 100.09%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $407.55B / $187.128B = 217.79%

Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap on Oct 27 for Sep 9th Cap-raise shares (per 10-Q). Google Charts updated Mkt Cap on Oct 28.
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $404.32B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $298.34B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) tracking for Nov 09, 2020​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 50.2% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 38.1% (45th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.50% of Short Volume (45th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Low vol/narrow SP rge, just like the Big Boys... "

QOTD: @Krugerrand: "Give up your inner Drama Queen"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Zero CO2]

All the trading volume moved to NIO and XPEV.

I'm sitting here wondering why I missed the boat on those, then I remember the reason why is I'm holding a lot of TSLA which hasn't exactly done badly for me this year. I'm happy there are people who missed the boat on TSLA who caught the ride on NIO and XPEV though. Everyone deserves a shot at beating Wall Street.

I bought NIO when I knew nothing about them... then i did my homework .... sold NIO and bought more TSLA ... there is only one 10X from here it is not NIO .... I dont get why there are still folks searching for the runner up when reading and posting on the winners BLOG

 

[Ameliorate]

A new video from our favorite Cathie Wood:

 

[Artful Dodger]

This must be a lowest volume since 201... @Artful Dodger will know...

Lowest 4 PM volume since Sep 18, 2019 (14 months)

 

[tinyrodent]

Texas factory update - lots of activity all over the site. Things seem to have sped up these last few days. A precast concrete column has arrived by truck, similar to components used at the Berlin factory. More steel components are arriving as well.

 

[FireMedic]

Since this is the week of OT I won’t apologize...went for a charge today in Concord, Ca., a Bay Area suburb and our 19 v2 chargers have some buddies. 16 of them. Not sure if this is v2 or v3. Maybe someone here knows

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

I bought NIO when I knew nothing about them... then i did my homework .... sold NIO and bought more TSLA ... there is only one 10X from here it is not NIO .... I dont get why there are still folks searching for the runner up when reading and posting on the winners BLOG

Both NIO & XPENG are pursuing full autonomy

 

[kanweg]

Republican energy regulator supportive of clean energy demoted but may still play an important role in the future for the transition to clean energy.

Trump quietly demotes his top energy regulator as election count drags on - CNN

 

[Paul_SF]

I think someone should call Elon and tell him to stop building the factory in Texas, cause the green energy transition is going to be halted by this politicians. Elon should be warned!







/s

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Model 3 - FSD Beta - Pulling off i5 to Kettleman City Supercharger - 2020.40.8.12 - 6 Nov 20" | James Locke (1 hr ago)

 

[kbeckley]

Probably a few fans of Tony Seba around these parts. Anyway his think tank has a new report out you can download here: Energy Report — RethinkX. Free PDF download.

If you are interested in the energy side of Tesla's business he has some very compelling scenarios. I highly recommend the report but it is not short.

tl;dr
- SWB (Solar Wind and Batteries) are going to destroy all other energy generation/storage options.
- Thinks solar costs will decrease another 72% by 2030, Wind by 43% and batteries by 80% (Tesla is doing 50% reduction in the next ~3 years).
- Depending on the location (wind vs solar) there is an optimal (from cost perspective) amount of solar, wind and battery for 100% of electricity demand to cover the entire year.
- Thinks locations should plan to over build by 10-20% so there is EXCESS energy about 95% of the days of the year.
- Calls this excess energy 'super power'. For example with a 20% overbuild in (not-so sunny) New England, in addition to fulfilling 100% of current electricity demand every day, New England could also convert 100% of transportation and most commercial energy (non-electrical) to electric. Capex for this is buildout is ~110billion through 2030. Those are stunning numbers.
- Another example, if Texas (lots of sun and wind) overbuilds by 20% ($239 billion capex) then electricity will be about 1.3Cents/kWh.
- Their entire analysis ignores effects of: Existing Green energy sources, demand response, carbon taxes or subsidies, EVs as storage, distributed generation (eg rooftop solar), new technologies.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think someone should call Elon and tell him to stop building the factory in Texas, cause the green energy transition is going to be halted by this politicians. Elon should be warned!







/s

It's a golf course, haven't you noticed the water traps.. and the big concrete bunkers on the south side

 

[Paul_SF]

Probably a few fans of Tony Seba around these parts. Anyway his think tank has a new report out you can download here: Energy Report — RethinkX. Free PDF download.

If you are interested in the energy side of Tesla's business he has some very compelling scenarios. I highly recommend the report but it is not short.

tl;dr
- SWB (Solar Wind and Batteries) are going to destroy all other energy generation/storage options.
- Thinks solar costs will decrease another 72% by 2030, Wind by 43% and batteries by 80% (Tesla is doing 50% reduction in the next ~3 years).
- Depending on the location (wind vs solar) there is an optimal (from cost perspective) amount of solar, wind and battery for 100% of electricity demand to cover the entire year.
- Thinks locations should plan to over build by 10-20% so there is EXCESS energy about 95% of the days of the year.
- Calls this excess energy 'super power'. For example with a 20% overbuild in (not-so sunny) New England, in addition to fulfilling 100% of current electricity demand every day, New England could also convert 100% of transportation and most commercial energy (non-electrical) to electric. Capex for this is buildout is ~110billion through 2030. Those are stunning numbers.
- Another example, if Texas (lots of sun and wind) overbuilds by 20% ($239 billion capex) then electricity will be about 1.3Cents/kWh.
- Their entire analysis ignores effects of: Existing Green energy sources, demand response, carbon taxes or subsidies, EVs as storage, distributed generation (eg rooftop solar), new technologies.

Thank you for this!

Max Hodak said it best :

 

[Buckminster]

15 km belly flop expected from SN8 over the next week. Likely to affect SP up or down depending on success.

 

[Mich]

15 km belly flop expected from SN8 over the next week. Likely to affect SP up or down depending on success.

disagree. Wallstreet doesn't care about SNx. Crew 1 could move the needle.

 

[bkp_duke]

Since this is the week of OT I won’t apologize...went for a charge today in Concord, Ca., a Bay Area suburb and our 19 v2 chargers have some buddies. 16 of them. Not sure if this is v2 or v3. Maybe someone here knows
View attachment 606057 View attachment 606058 View attachment 606059

Clearly V3, you can tell by the cabinet design (square, larger) and the cables (thinner).

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Probably a few fans of Tony Seba around these parts. Anyway his think tank has a new report out you can download here: Energy Report — RethinkX. Free PDF download.

If you are interested in the energy side of Tesla's business he has some very compelling scenarios. I highly recommend the report but it is not short.

tl;dr
- SWB (Solar Wind and Batteries) are going to destroy all other energy generation/storage options.
- Thinks solar costs will decrease another 72% by 2030, Wind by 43% and batteries by 80% (Tesla is doing 50% reduction in the next ~3 years).
- Depending on the location (wind vs solar) there is an optimal (from cost perspective) amount of solar, wind and battery for 100% of electricity demand to cover the entire year.
- Thinks locations should plan to over build by 10-20% so there is EXCESS energy about 95% of the days of the year.
- Calls this excess energy 'super power'. For example with a 20% overbuild in (not-so sunny) New England, in addition to fulfilling 100% of current electricity demand every day, New England could also convert 100% of transportation and most commercial energy (non-electrical) to electric. Capex for this is buildout is ~110billion through 2030. Those are stunning numbers.
- Another example, if Texas (lots of sun and wind) overbuilds by 20% ($239 billion capex) then electricity will be about 1.3Cents/kWh.
- Their entire analysis ignores effects of: Existing Green energy sources, demand response, carbon taxes or subsidies, EVs as storage, distributed generation (eg rooftop solar), new technologies.

I don't think 20% overbuild will be enough. Most regions have periods of weeks with significantly below average sun and/or wind. I know the situation in the UK best, there are periods in winter up to 2 weeks long when high pressure means low wind and clear skies. Being winter the sun is weak, at a low angle and there are only 6 hours of daylight.

There are three solutions: vastly overbuild wind and solar generation (much more than 20%), have several days worth of battery storage, and interconnectors to other regions (Scandinavia, Iceland, France, Spain, Ireland). Other solutions (pumped storage, use hydro as top-up, keep existing power stations, load shedding) either are not practical or too expensive for the UK.

For the UK a mixture of all three solutions is probably best. Overbuilding wind means that it can be exported to other regions, but that requires more interconnectors than currently exist, then batteries balancing demand over shorter periods of really low generation.

Smart loads (charging vehicles when plenty of power) and vehicle to grid are probably in the mix as well, but cannot easily cope with 2 weeks of low power generation.

 

[mongo]

Clearly V3, you can tell by the cabinet design (square, larger) and the cables (thinner).

@FireMedic
Yeah, cabinets are V3 (or at least not V2), pedestal shot may be a v2:
Rated voltage 500 VDC
Rated Current 350 A
That's only 175kW, previous v3 250kW pedestals go to around 800 Amps.
If it is a lower power V3, this may be a new configuration with twice the pedestals per cabinet, or half the power per output.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't think 20% overbuild will be enough. Most regions have periods of weeks with significantly below average sun and/or wind. I know the situation in the UK best, there are periods in winter up to 2 weeks long when high pressure means low wind and clear skies. Being winter the sun is weak, at a low angle and there are only 6 hours of daylight.

There are three solutions: vastly overbuild wind and solar generation (much more than 20%), have several days worth of battery storage, and interconnectors to other regions (Scandinavia, Iceland, France, Spain, Ireland). Other solutions (pumped storage, use hydro as top-up, keep existing power stations, load shedding) either are not practical or too expensive for the UK.

For the UK a mixture of all three solutions is probably best. Overbuilding wind means that it can be exported to other regions, but that requires more interconnectors than currently exist, then batteries balancing demand over shorter periods of really low generation.

Smart loads (charging vehicles when plenty of power) and vehicle to grid are probably in the mix as well, but cannot easily cope with 2 weeks of low power generation.

Agree. In addition we don't know how the economy will adapt to cheap energy. When electricity is 2p per kWh what will change? Will industrial plants start to become more localised as transport costs become a larger factor than energy costs in making the construction decision?

Will energy use skyrocket with a lower price? Surely there must be energy intensive ideas that are uncompetitive due to the current cost of energy - perhaps giant greenhouses that control the "daylight" hours to maximise crop growth all year round. Maybe 3d printing infrastructure like this bridge. etc. Surely demand will skyrocket once the price drops.