Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

A camo Cybertruck would be way cool...

But ya gotta have the right shades

 

[lafrisbee]

here is some hard core insight....
The first company that gets approval for real level 5 autonomy will have to be "X" times better than the average human driver by statistically proving they are.
The next Company to get approval by a government will have to be "Just as good as" the current version of the FIRST company is at the time they want approval.
Logic won't be "We are better than a human by this much." It will be "we are as good as the other guy." If it isn't then it is an inferior product.
Now how on Earth is anyone going to be able to keep pace with the first guy, especially if it is Elon?
It makes an even stronger case for, "Whoever gets to level 5 first wins."

 

[Singuy]

here is some hard core insight....
The first company that gets approval for real level 5 autonomy will have to be "X" times better than the average human driver by statistically proving they are.
The next Company to get approval by a government will have to be "Just as good as" the current version of the FIRST company is at the time they want approval.
Logic won't be "We are better than a human by this much." It will be "we are as good as the other guy." If it isn't then it is an inferior product.
Now how on Earth is anyone going to be able to keep pace with the first guy, especially if it is Elon?
It makes an even stronger case for, "Whoever gets to level 5 first wins."

How is it suppose to be proven if all the other companies are not using the same metrics? Tesla will be like "here is 100 billion miles across the world". The other company is like "here is 100 million miles across 10 square miles".

It's like comparing saturn to porn stars.

 

[JustSaying]

~~~The NEXT post about non-automotive unions earns its writer an unpaid, pensionless, long, long vacation~~~

Got it, but what about the retiree health care benefits?

 

[OrthoSurg]

here is some hard core insight....
The first company that gets approval for real level 5 autonomy will have to be "X" times better than the average human driver by statistically proving they are.
The next Company to get approval by a government will have to be "Just as good as" the current version of the FIRST company is at the time they want approval.
Logic won't be "We are better than a human by this much." It will be "we are as good as the other guy." If it isn't then it is an inferior product.
Now how on Earth is anyone going to be able to keep pace with the first guy, especially if it is Elon?
It makes an even stronger case for, "Whoever gets to level 5 first wins."

In pharmaceutical as soon as a production has a no inferiority study published, and of course they don’t have minoré side effects, they usually have approval. GM might lobby the government for their non inferiority study of Super cruise or Super pilot to be compared to a human driving instead of Tesla :X

 

[lafrisbee]

How is it suppose to be proven if all the other companies are not using the same metrics? Tesla will be like "here is 100 billion miles across the world". The other company is like "here is 100 million miles across 10 square miles".

It's like comparing saturn to porn stars.

comparisons will be to humans...but the second to market will have to surpass the metric (of comparison to humans) of the first to market. BUT it will have to match or beat where the first is at the time of approval.

 

[Mo City]

here is some hard core insight....
The first company that gets approval for real level 5 autonomy will have to be "X" times better than the average human driver by statistically proving they are.
The next Company to get approval by a government will have to be "Just as good as" the current version of the FIRST company is at the time they want approval.
Logic won't be "We are better than a human by this much." It will be "we are as good as the other guy." If it isn't then it is an inferior product.
Now how on Earth is anyone going to be able to keep pace with the first guy, especially if it is Elon?
It makes an even stronger case for, "Whoever gets to level 5 first wins."

IMO, the much bigger point is FSD capability is built in every single Tesla while the distribution for others will be very limited for several years. That's why I've said many times being first to autonomy represents one bullet for competitors but is a nuclear bomb for Tesla.

If the FSD beta (1) continues improving enough for a general release in a few months, (2) the sky doesn't fall when that happens and (3) Dojo starts the march of 9s in 12-18 months, may as well turn out the lights.

 

[Nocturnal]

Monster Q4 incoming.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is there not a FSD forum?

I need a safe place to talk about my options losses without distraction!

 

[Prunesquallor]

IMO, the much bigger point is FSD capability is built in every single Tesla while the distribution for others will be very limited for several years.
...

What's he problem? Not enough Proton Packs?

 

[Mike Smith]

Monster Q4 incoming.

He's predicting for Q4:

Production: 200,578
Deliveries: 200,000

 

[JustMe]

He's predicting for Q4:

Production: 200,578
Deliveries: 200,000

But - how can that be? Expert *analyst* Gordon Johnson says Tesla’s deliveries will plummet in Q4!

Someone is in for a wake up call pretty soon.

 

[Knightshade]

here is some hard core insight....
The first company that gets approval for real level 5 autonomy will have to be "X" times better than the average human driver by statistically proving they are.
The next Company to get approval by a government will have to be "Just as good as" the current version of the FIRST company is at the time they want approval.
Logic won't be "We are better than a human by this much." It will be "we are as good as the other guy." If it isn't then it is an inferior product.
Now how on Earth is anyone going to be able to keep pace with the first guy, especially if it is Elon?
It makes an even stronger case for, "Whoever gets to level 5 first wins."

Again- L5 is legal right now in many US states.

Today.

With no extra "approval" of any kind needed.

It's legal right now In your own (listed) state of Florida in fact.

The only reason it's not deployed is nobody actually has a working L5 car yet.


The idea that the only reason we don't have self-driving cars on the road today is someone is "waiting for the regulators to allow it" is simply fiction.

 

[Hock1]

That's the biggest puzzle to me.... I can theorize they made more money than god playing the covid virus downturn, but just how greedy can they be to keep working the maxpain game. And they've done it for a number of times for billions of dollars at a time.

Greed is a state of being. It is not an investment strategy that is tossed aside once one makes "enough" money.

 

[joh01652]

Yes, top-notch manipulation today, the one there 15 minutes before close, so firkin' obvious...

The pattern seems to be, a run of gentle accumulation, then the moment it gets too hot, dump a "big" sell order.

Indeed, how can money be made like that, surely the shares are slowly being transferred to willing buyers at stable prices?

View attachment 607495

And the larger pattern that is now occurring is that THEY have finally managed to bend the BBs and 50-day-moving-average down. I wonder if THEY are engineering something? I wonder for how long and for how low THEY can bend the SP down? Can S&P demand a trend down so that they can get a more agreeable price?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

And the larger pattern that is now occurring is that THEY have finally managed to bend the BBs and 50-day-moving-average down. I wonder if THEY are engineering something? I wonder for how long and for how low THEY can bend the SP down? Can S&P demand a trend down so that they can get a more agreeable price?

S&P doesn't care much about the price, though they may act in the interest of their largest customers just by habit.

Volatility certainly feels like it's being purposely squashed, but there's plenty of other logical factors capping things(like a $400B valuation). As always it's probably a combination of natural and manipulative causes.

Regardless, TSLA in the grand scheme will do what it wants. I know nothing about charts and technical analysis trading, but to me the TSLA chart now looks "coiled", either to pop or drop. Since it's unlikely to drop a lot, I think our next logical move is pop. Maybe on 4Q deliveries and 100% growth guidance.

Imagine what happens to our current chart if inclusion happens Friday at close. We'd literally almost double as everyone scrambles to buy, cover, and hedge all these calls. Stimulus followed by inclusion and I think you get that kind of squeeze.

A rational person would buy LEAPs and sell on the volatility when it comes I guess. Not advice.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Monster Q4 incoming.

The depth and detail of Rob's assessment must scare the crap out of “professional analysts”.

 

[bkp_duke]

The depth and detail of Rob's assessment must scare the crap out of “professional analysts”.

I hope he's compensated enough for his work, through Patreon and Youtube. I've found his analysis to be just top-shelf work.

And yes, I would love to see him put some of the pros out of a job.

 

[Sudre]

How is it suppose to be proven if all the other companies are not using the same metrics? Tesla will be like "here is 100 billion miles across the world". The other company is like "here is 100 million miles across 10 square miles".

It's like comparing saturn to porn stars.

And don't forget that Consumer Regrets will then give GM 10 out of 10 because their Level 5 system keeps an eye on the driver making sure they are engaged. Tesla will get a 5 because they are not watching the drive... on the LEVEL 5 SYSTEM.... yes I know level 5 means no driver.

It's not only about equal comparison to quality miles. You will be able to drop a Tesla vehicle on any PLANET and it will drive itself safely to given coordinates but.... here on Earth, at least in the US, the approved company will be the one that bought the right politicians. Maybe I am just getting too jaded with our political system.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's not only about equal comparison to quality miles. You will be able to drop a Tesla vehicle on any PLANET and it will drive itself safely to given coordinates but.... here on Earth, at least in the US, the approved company will be the one that bought the right politicians. Maybe I am just getting too jaded with our political system.

We're moving past that phase thank god. Tesla will get halfway through beta and have something no competition will be able to touch for years. Plenty will have to give in and start licensing from Tesla. Hard to spin that when it's actually available and happening in the marketplace.