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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Disclaimer: I don't have a clue and nobody should take my advice or assume I know what I am talking about. But it seems like everyone who owns Tesla that I know of plans to hold until they die. If the price goes up on tesla nobody would sell.

If this was another company joining the s and p where a large number of shareholders didn't have the belief that the company being added to the sp500 would become the worlds largest company and that the bump in price reflected an a higher than realistic price, people would sell and it would go down.

Personally - not advice - I don't see a reason to sell Tesla ever. Musk says he is using Tesla to fund his personal mars ambitions. I doubt he'll ever sell Tesla. Someday - maybe, 20 years from now, maybe 6 years from now - Tesla will be a rewarding stock to own. I'm just here to see what I should be excited about at this point. Why sell?

Um... How can he fund Mars mission using Tesla stock without selling?
 
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Holidays are coming, again. A solid 2-bagger last season for us. This time, FSD on wide release could trigger it again (coupled with a healthy volumes beat + more about the future).

Guess what? It's that time of year when Thanksgiving discussions and demos will be happening everywhere. And now we have about double the # of Model 3s in the wild compared to last season, globally as well. It will become the alternate conversation to politics, (and likely right back into it again sadly).

$600 SP by Jan 1st. is a solid doubling again this time. Been here too long, pressure is building!

Absolutely dead on. Have wife’s friend begging to see/demo/ride/drive our Y and S. So much so they are quarantining themselves for two weeks prior to Thanksgiving weekend. MIT grad and working at Lockheed Martin. I should also bring up SpaceX?
 
I wonder if any of them got of the flight and asked if they could call their broker?
I think I would rather do Insider Dragon Trading, but it would be legal because it's outer space baby, no jurisdiction... unless Pence has created the Space Exchange Commission and we don't know about it yet.
 
Um... How can he fund Mars mission using Tesla stock without selling?

same way he lives like a king now without selling shares. When you’re worth a $bil you get credit for cheap. Everything he touches turns profitable; so he uses credit to fund his projects whose profits pay down the used credit and the cycle continues.
 
Just wondering if someone could educate me:

I see a lot of people anticipating on TSLA to jump massively between now and 21st Dec because of SP500 inclusion.
On 4th Sept 2020 spglobal announced that ETSY, TER and CTLT would be included in SP500 as of 21st Sept.
(https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/d...14656/1214656_finalmigraseptetsyctltter30.pdf)

Between 4th Sept and 21st Sept:
-ETSY: rose a bit from 112.04 on 4th to 116.01 on 21st
-TER: dropped a bit 78.60 on 4th to 76.92 on 21st
-CTLT: dropped quite a bit from 52.52 on 4th to 43.93 on 21st
Neither of them had any considerable action (spikes) between announcement and inclusion either...

I sure hope that the anticipated rise for TSLA is going to happen but I just wonder what the reasons would be for this to simply be a given, because why did the other 3 back in Sept not jump up then?

This is a much more apt comparison:

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Thinking about this $462 level we landed at after hours. Is that shorts covering.....or just market makers uncoiling all the weird push down activities of the last 2 months?
Based on the technical, 460 is suppose to be a massive resistance level like how the 410s is a good support level. We pretty much need to break through 460 tomorrow or eventually to see stocks go higher.
 
Absolutely dead on. Have wife’s friend begging to see/demo/ride/drive our Y and S. So much so they are quarantining themselves for two weeks prior to Thanksgiving weekend. MIT grad and working at Lockheed Martin. I should also bring up SpaceX?
Definitely test drives will sky rocket during the holidays - kiss of death for ICE. There are discussions here about the best way to blow people's mind in a demo (don't need to rehash here, but a simple search maybe).

So my SP guess today was before we learned about the S&P inclusion. New SEC chair on the way as well, I might have to bump it up to $650 By the new year. Did someone leak something triggering early $450 options activity, or just rumors? Oh, wouldn't the truth be nice.
SEC chief Clayton to call it quits at the end of 2020
 
It's the end of the year and this is usually when I do my reflections.

If the past serves as a predictor of cycles. Within the 3 years after this crash we should be seeing the birth of the next big thing and will take 10 years to come to fruition. If my track record of picking these game changers can serve as a beacon, it'll probably be controversial and attached with great negative emotion at first.

If we go by another trend of great companies we are seeing. You see the upgrade path from iPhone, to Tesla. The next trend is maybe an iHouse. Something we need daily, that can be changed with technology and design and is bigger than a car. I have less conviction on this than the previous paragraph.

Keep an open mind when you look for new stocks to invest. Ask yourself if it arouses some negative emotion within you and give back a little and post it in the "other tech stocks to consider" if you find something.
 
So Rob talked about "the index fund" and the "benchmarked funds."
He said the index funds HAD TO buy 15% of the float, and the benchmark funds "could buy around" 22% of the float. (I hope I got that right, and the numbers "close enough?)
And he talked about when the stock could be purchased. But I am very unsure. Even more unsure with the 2 tranches set up(?).
Can both the index and the benchmarks start buying right now? I figure the benchmark funds could have already been buying? Or did they have to wait for the announcement by the SP 500? Can the index fund start buying NOW, and have up to the amount they are being allowed to buy in the first tranche? or can they buy all they need as long as they have all they need on December 21?
Knowing that will help me understand what is happening from now until the 21st. Not really. everything I think about is just half-blind guessing.
But it would still be worth knowing when the index funds and the benchmark funds are allowed to buy the shares they either need or want.
Rob also talked about the benchmark fund managers deciding one way or another on how much TSLA they will hold because their job is to beat the SP 500 by having more of the winning stock and less of the "underperforming stock(s)." I figure most benchmarks will have the required amount of TSLA, and they make their money knowing a different part of the market. Being bullish on TSLA we all feel as though the benchmark fund managers will want to have more than the required amount?
 
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BRK's 13F filed today is here: https://fintel.io/i13f/berkshire-hathaway/2020-09-30-0

Nothing is blacked out and Tesla is not listed.

it was mentioned live on Air on CNBC when 13-F dropped after hours, of course it was CNBC so...

note that I never said it was Tesla - they just said a position was redacted as it would be “market moving”
upload_2020-11-17_19-38-25.png


Edit to add: it’s right there in the Berkshire SEC document:

upload_2020-11-17_19-47-0.png
 
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Congratulations to anyone who was “rage buying” or “Boredom buying” recently, it seems going to payoff big time.

One thing I liked the S&P announcement is it did set the weight and a clear cut off date, which was my biggest concern for whether the “S&P squeeze” would happen. If they decided to introduce TSLA with a much lower weight or staggered the addition to say over a year, the firework won’t be as splendid.

For anyone who is planning to time the squeeze, remember it’s more painful if you sell too early, than not owning it in the first place.

I MHO, the squeeze would happen, but the drop after the squeeze is not written in stone yet, if you are planning to rebuy at lower level, think twice when you sell. People who missed the train in 2019/2020 then jumped back in at higher price are rare breed, most of those who sold out watched the train goes far and far away, then probably invested in NKLA instead.

Just remember Elon has a habit of adding fuel to the fire when he is in a good mood. Between now and the inclusion many things could happen to support whatever level it reaches, CyberTruck updates, Chinese Model Y, FSD release, global rollout of insurance, Semi announcements, just to name a few.

My strategy would be not even setting any limit sell order, just wait and see whether my urge to lock in the profits would overcome my discipline at some stage(so far it never happened).

Not advice...
 
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Congratulations to anyone who was “rage buying” or “Boredom buying” recently, it seems going to payoff big time.

One thing I liked the S&P announcement is it did set the weight and a clear cut off date, which was my biggest concern for whether the “S&P squeeze” would happen. If they decided to introduce TSLA with a much lower weight or staggered the addition to say over a year, the firework won’t be as splendid.

For anyone who is planning to time the squeeze, remember it’s more painful if you sell too early, than not owning it in the first place.

I MHO, the squeeze would happen, but the drop after the squeeze is not written in stone yet, if you are planning to rebuy at lower level, think twice when you sell. People who missed the train in 2019/2020 then jumped back in at higher price are rare breed, most of those who sold out watched the train goes far and far away, then probably invested in NKLA instead.

Just remember Elon has a habit of adding fuel to the fire when he is in a good mood. Between now and the inclusion many things could happen to support whatever level it reaches, CyberTruck updates, Chinese Model Y, FSD release, global rollout of insurance, Semi announcements, just to name a few.

My strategy would be not even setting any limit sell order, just wait and see whether my urge to lock in the profits would overcome my discipline at some stage(so far I never happened).

Not advice...

I set some insane sell orders at $800, then $1500. It keeps the old 2008 VW 'infinite short squeeze' dream alive. Won't happen, but feels good to try.