Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hoang51]

I guess just like the election, the S&P inclusion did not end the discussion about S&P inclusion. LOL.

9% feels good but my NIO is up 7% on news that today is Tuesday.

S&P inclusion talk is still a discussion because how funds need to buy it, not surprising. But of course, you knew that.

Unless you sold at today's peak, NIO just tanked 6%, probably made you feel 6% less good.

 

[UkNorthampton]

You're talking about a company forced by Wall St and others to operate lean and profitably. I'm saying we're in a new zone now, scratch all that worry and build. If you need to boost raw materials, talk to some govts and get them moving. Or build an entirely new stationary storage GF on a formulation requiring zero scarce materials. We had a trial one in PA 4 years ago that failed only because there was no Elon to scale effectively.

The mission is to speed the transition. We're certainly not doing that if we're growing at 100% AND profitable. Elon's built an amazing company with a massive market cap, I'd happily see that market cap stagnate to move the transition forward even 6 months. Don't really care about climate change, just want to get there sooner. Ironically, there's no need to do this sustainably!

Foundation limited in resources vs Empire doing things the old way (Asimov's Foundation series of science fiction)

"I already know how this comes out. The irony is double. It looks like the oil companies and automakers have no possibility of losing this one. In reality, they have no way to win it. One man has them totally surrounded, outnumbered, and outgunned.

Elon Musk.

Bite it bitch.
And bury me next to Seth Rich.

Jack Rickard"

 

[hoang51]

I suspect that the delay in adding future gigas is more due to a lack of managerial bandwidth than lack of capital.

Also, expanding too fast will also burn out Tesla. Plenty of stories of where a business got too greedy, expanded too quickly only to file bankruptcy.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Really disappointed on the TSLA performance for the past 2.5 month and today. My NIO total value is on track of surpassing TSLAs.

That's why this is called the "Investor's Roundtable" not the "Immediate Feedback Day Trader Roundtable".

Dan

 

[StealthP3D]

Yeah I don't understand what is the negative connotation of selling covered calls while holding.

Yes, it's really baffling...



/s

 

[hoang51]

Really disappointed on the TSLA performance for the past 2.5 month and today. My NIO total value is on track of surpassing TSLAs.

Why should it come to a surprise to you that TSLA wasn't holding onto massive gains since after market yesterday? It's take profit on the news, and it's been like this for some time now. TSLA is heavily manipulated, especially for options. As for NIO, you better watch out when they dilute their stock in the near future to fulfill one of their predictions previously mentioned. I'm sitting on the sideline watching NIO for this, main reason why I'm not dumping money into NIO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

According to Mark Spiegel (on twitter) it is already over, the volume today is already more than the total count S&P trackers need to buy, so that's it, no more growth due to fund buying

38 days of trading between now and Dec 24th (last day on which Index Funds can have they shares in place):

• Given ASP @ 440 for arguement's sake (that's near the SP that Tesla set in September's "At-the-Market" share offering)
• Given the S&P's $51B stock transfer requirement, that means about 116M shares need to be bought
• over 38 days, that's about 3 million shares per day being locked up
• given 60M shares/day Volume, that's about 5% of daily trading

This is going to be v.tough to hold down. MMs r in trouble. Only saving grace is the fact that Index Funds don't need to purchase a fixed number of shares, only a fixed value of shares.

This is important. It means that if the shares they purchase today go up in value due to a 'squeeze', their total value of holdings of TSLA goes up with it, and REDUCES their future need to buy shares.

Some forward thinking Index Funds could even become Sellers if they buy what they need early at a realitively low ASP, and then a squeeze sees their value exceed the Fund's requirements.

All of this points to an early peak, IF and that's a big unknown, Index Funds can purchase outside the normal +/- 3 day window from the S&P effective date. The Fund itself sets these rules (imp. NOT the S&P Committee), and I suspect they'll make an exception to buy TSLA in the same way the S&P Committee itself has take the extraordinary of pre-announcing the listing of TSLA 5 weeks ahead of time.

Cheers!

 

[juanmedina]

Yes, it's really baffling...

dude didn't you sell some stock when the stock hit $500 recently? I know I didn't and I sold calls instead. Who is the holder now?

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - half hour ago: Tesla Expands Full Self-Driving Beta Program To More States Like Michigan, Illinois

 

[Mike Smith]

I doubt there are many TSLA fans running S&P funds, so it makes sense that they wouldn't be in a hurry to buy when they have over a month to do so. Up 8% on day 1 seems pretty good to me.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Foundation limited in resources vs Empire doing things the old way (Asimov's Foundation series of science fiction)

"I already know how this comes out. The irony is double. It looks like the oil companies and automakers have no possibility of losing this one. In reality, they have no way to win it. One man has them totally surrounded, outnumbered, and outgunned.

Elon Musk.

Bite it bitch.
And bury me next to Seth Rich.

Jack Rickard"

I miss Jack!!

 

[FS_FRA]

This is going to be v.tough to hold down. MMs r in trouble. Only saving grace is the fact that Index Funds don't need to purchase a fixed number of shares, only a fixed value of shares.

This is important. It means that if the shares they purchase today go up in value due to a 'squeeze', their total value of holdings of TSLA goes up with it, and REDUCES their future need to buy shares.

Thanks for reminding me of this fact: Value vs. No. of Shares requirement might be one of the reasons we don't see a "to the moon" squeeze . I have no idea if this will truly impact, but it's good to store in the back of the mind.

 

[Big Time]

Gordo just commented on Troys Twitter. Come bash him with me it will be fun!

 

[Big Time]

great news recap!!

Troy says he will update 2021 on Twitter Nov 26

 

[Christine69420]

Closing at upper Bollinger. Not too shabby.

Now let us ride it up.

 

[EVortex]

Also, expanding too fast will also burn out Tesla. Plenty of stories of where a business got too greedy, expanded too quickly only to file bankruptcy.

Lots of factors in timing, location, and priority of new GFs. Geographical demand, materials, labor, government policies, political risk, economic climate, CapEx availability, and logistics, to name a few. Spreadsheet it, prioritize, and monitor changes/trends. If it makes financial sense and is within risk tolerance and ability to execute then do it.

 

[Tslynk67]

38 days of trading between now and Dec 24th (last day on which Index Funds can have they shares in place):

• Given ASP @ 440 for arguement's sake (that's near the SP that Tesla set in September's "At-the-Market" share offering)
• Given the S&P's $51B stock transfer requirement, that means about 116M shares need to be bought
• over 38 days, that's about 3 million shares per day being locked up
• given 60M shares/day Volume, that's about 5% of daily trading

This is going to be v.tough to hold down. MMs r in trouble. Only saving grace is the fact that Index Funds don't need to purchase a fixed number of shares, only a fixed value of shares.

This is important. It means that if the shares they purchase today go up in value due to a 'squeeze', their total value of holdings of TSLA goes up with it, and REDUCES their future need to buy shares.

Some forward thinking Index Funds could even become Sellers if they buy what they need early at a realitively low ASP, and then a squeeze sees their value exceed the Fund's requirements.

All of this points to an early peak, IF and that's a big unknown, Index Funds can purchase outside the normal +/- 3 day window from the S&P effective date. The Fund itself sets these rules (imp. NOT the S&P Committee), and I suspect they'll make an exception to buy TSLA in the same way the S&P Committee itself has take the extraordinary of pre-announcing the listing of TSLA 5 weeks ahead of time.

Cheers!

38 calendar days, 21.5 trading days until the add on the 21st...

And don't forget passive funds will buy too, not all, but certainly some - that's potentially more shares than the indexed.

But I agree, the shenanigans we've seen today - and they're so frickin' obvious - will be hard to maintain over the time period.

 

[Tslynk67]

Closing at upper Bollinger. Not too shabby.

Now let us ride ut up.

And to be fair, was a generally red macro day, tech not doing so good.

 

[EVMeister]

Too funny. Maybe this is holding the SP back.

Volkswagen's CEO says its latest round of investment in electric self-driving cars will let it finally 'beat Tesla'

Well I see a lot of people marking this as "funny" but very little counter-argument.

/s.

 

[EVortex]

Well I see a lot of people marking this as "funny" but very little counter-argument.

/s.

Funny ha ha + sarcasm.