Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

Friday after Thanksgiving...

Most people believe that this day will be sleepy. Only half day, and many people do not show up.

Yet, it is precisely for this reason that I have seen spectacular moves in SPs on this day.

We are expecting a give back Friday with the MMs in control trying to maximize the pain.

We are in uncharted waters. TSLA has gone rogue, and they do not know what the hell to do. Do not be shocked with a huge move on Friday.

I totally the last person to take advice from. FYI.

 

[ZeApelido]

Just remember, Adam Jonas' range for TSLA stock last year was $2 - $100.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

*JAPAN CONSIDERS ADDITIONAL SUBSIDIES FOR EV PURCHASES, NHK SAYS

There was a report on November 9th, for the new budget.

Japan may extend tax cuts for fuel-efficient cars | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Current incentives for fuel-efficient vehicles expire in April 2021. (Beginning of the fiscal year)

So, there are obviously discussions on the form in which they should be renewed.

 

[woodisgood]

Never had any doubt that FSD wouldn't be accepted by all who bought it.

What I doubt is the paradigm shift of robotaxi assuming regulatory approval. How many of you Tesla owners will be willing to hire out your Tesla to strangers when you're not needing it? Be honest.

I’m open to it depending on the details and my family’s personal situation at that time (where we’re living and how much we’re using the car).

But it comes down to execution - how will Tesla handle insurance? Do you have to be on Tesla insurance to participate? In what ways will I be able to monitor my vehicle? How will claims of damage be handled? What happens if the car gets into an unsolvable situation/stuck/crashed? Will I need to retrieve it or would Tesla mobile service handle it? Will TN-related damage, whether collision or passenger-related be fixed expediently/be prioritized? Or as the owner am I on my own pursuing damages, dealing with insurance, and getting the car fixed?

Those are the types of answers I’ll be looking for before deciding to be a part of the network.

 

[Robocop]

Just remember, Adam Jonas' range for TSLA stock last year was $2 - $100.

$2-$100 SP increase per day, you mean?

 

[Krugerrand]

Craig Johnson is a managing director and technical strategist at Piper Sandler (formerly Piper Jaffray). He was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show, and still sends me his newsletters. In early 2013 he recommended TSLA, which led to my first purchase at $38 ($7.60 post-split).

Below is what Craig wrote this morning:

Tesla Inc (TSLA - $521.85); Shares have broken out from a symmetrical triangle formation/surpassed resistance from the August ‘20 highs (near $500); above the rising 10-/30-week WMAs; RS and volume are confirming the breakout; impressive TechniGrade ranking; add to positions, as we suspect more upside lies ahead.

God bless symmetrical triangles!

 

[traxila]

I think we owe the S&P committee an ovation for waiting until November instead of doing the smart thing in August. On a personal level, their delay allowed me to learn about options and make some huge decisions last week. I sweated it out over the weekend; yesterday's open was such a huge relief. Since then has been ecstasy.

At the moment, I'm up $650K since Friday's close (almost $400K so far just today). This is so unreal I can't believe it's happening. 8 bagger since March 19th.

Need advice from some of you call option veterans on when to sell the 15Jan2021C650 chunk. Right now, I'm thinking definitely no sooner than 14Dec. My real question is: When should I be concerned about the value going down as the expiration date approaches. Never done this before.

Also have a small 04Dec2020C545 that is up 75%. Thinking of selling quickly if there is a strong opening next Monday.

Advice appreciated.

The time value will steadily erode. I am sure you have seen it grind down intraday when the stock pauses its march up.

If you are ITM, it will be much less pronounced. OTM can plummet hard and suddenly. It has no intrinsic value after all.

Your 545 call has probably lost most of its time value, converted to real value. Depends on how far above the strike price you are.

TSLA closed at 555 today and the 555 strike expiring in a day and a half was all time value at 12.5. The 510 OTOH was around 47 - basically trading at full delta.

If this keeps up your 545 will be solidly ITM.

I dumped half my 600 calls for Friday at 2 which I bought for one dollar yesterday. The value there would disappear instantly if the stock paused, with good reason. Took my money off the table and now rubbing my hands for the lottery ticket.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Just remember, Adam Jonas' range for TSLA stock last year was $2 - $100.

To give him credit. This time he managed to be on the right side of the SP for four days.

As of today he's wrong again.

 

[Paul_SF]

I think the vehicle that will be the Robotaxi is not one of the vehicles in production or in future production, CT or Model T00.

The demand for electric self driving cars for the general public it’s going to swallow everything for the next decade.

That machine is in the works and will be presented as such, the “Tesla Robotaxi” and will not be available for purchase by the general public. It’s going to be Tesla owned or new companies that will deal with monitoring them (cleaning and maintenance) locally, for each region/urban areas.

the future of transportation is individual transportation, Elon stated that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

not a good light for her to try to cover Elon's gaffe. The 4780 cells...

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

When did Tesla start leasing model 3? They have an incitement to have robotaxi ready three years from then. Or they will start having a parking problem.

 

[Nocturnal]

Never had any doubt that FSD wouldn't be accepted by all who bought it.

What I doubt is the paradigm shift of robotaxi assuming regulatory approval. How many of you Tesla owners will be willing to hire out your Tesla to strangers when you're not needing it? Be honest.

When robotaxi is rolled out I'll own a Cybertruck and a Roadster 2 so I'll be happy to hire out my "old" 2018 P3D if the numbers make it a worthwhile hassle. Well, depending on numbers/timing, I might own a few other CTs that I'll hire out as well.

 

[AudubonB]

Friday after Thanksgiving...

Most people believe that this day will be sleepy. Only half day, and many people do not show up.

Yet, it is precisely for this reason that I have seen spectacular moves in SPs on this day.

We are expecting a give back Friday with the MMs in control trying to maximize the pain.

We are in uncharted waters. TSLA has gone rogue, and they do not know what the hell to do. Do not be shocked with a huge move on Friday.

I totally the last person to take advice from. FYI.

When I was in The Game, Thanksgiving Friday was my very favorite day of the year to come into the office. Not only would I have essentially the entire floor to myself, but in that the rest of Wall St likewise was away, and also that most of my activity was outside the US market, I had unparalleled access to the best trades and best service... Just for that one day a year, I could consider myself...and even better, be considered by whoever was on the other end of the phone, as George Soros.

~~~And, on edit: I had received "Funny" for the following post, but it was precisely in line with this post's contents that I had written the earlier one: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable .{Content: That reminds me - it could be interesting to see if the Frankfurt bourse receives an inordinate amount of trading late in the week as turkey-greasy itchy fingers can't keep away from trading.}

Amusing, possibly, but absolutely real and, for TSLA, potentially quite interesting indeed.~~~

 

[StealthP3D]

Agree, but Cathy Woods (Ark) uses Robo taxi as part of her formula for future stock price. I could see Tesla operating a Tesla rental service but not people renting out their expensive car for a way to afford the car. Too many hidden costs, IMO.

Yes, Tesla wisely started creating their robo-taxi fleet a couple of years ago by retaining all end of lease ownership. Since most leases are 3 years, it won't be long before Tesla's self-owned fleet is growing like crazy! Obviously, Tesla will make a lot more money if they have complete ownership and control of the taxis!

 

[AudubonB]

So, with 420 in our rear view mirror forever (probably), what's our next number to annoy moderators with?

Two of the digits are sixes; the other two aren’t.

It might be the case that I’ve a GTC at $6,000 though; if so and I’m thereupon out I won’t be so tempted as to get my dander up. Will have to check....

On edit: I checked. I don't.

 

[mejojo]

Now I know you are a wise man.

He forgot the part about getting a broken RV, towing it to the driveway and renting that out.

 

[2virgule5]

Just remember, Adam Jonas' range for TSLA stock last year was $2 - $100.

Which was about the same nonsense then than his current valuation of Tesla Energy at $12 or something...
Some are born to be clown all their life.​

 

[lklundin]

I think it's going to run quite a bit higher from now until inclusion day. But I also think afterwards its going to fall back down to some level above $500 or so.

None of it matters to me, I'm holding very long like I planned. I'm just enjoying the roller coaster ride!

Here is an extra reason why any Tesla long would want to just hold on for the ride during the next handful of weeks:

If the shares available for trading are very few, these next few weeks become the perfect storm for the famous short squeeze of the century. In other words, the short sellers that have been distorting the public's view on Tesla for so many years will be paid back in kind with margin calls that even the largest funds will have difficulty handling. That will be epic to watch.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Found out why $TSLA is up AH....based on the pure ridiculousness of this article:

Is Tesla About to Get Crushed by General Motors?

I think GJ wrote this secretly and published it under someone else's name

 

[MartinAustin]

Possible institutional buyer tactics, given the obligation to acquire TSLA prior to December 21st:

1) get it over with early, so that if the price is higher, your fund benefits from that
2) leave it until the last few days, or even until the last minute, either because you're selling other assets to generate liquidity, or you think you will get a great deal at the end, or you just don't want to buy TSLA... or whatever other reason
3) more or less just buy at a constant rate. no point getting worked up one way or the other. Unlikely everyone starts on the same day though, as they needed to "confer" and draw up tactics.

The institutional buying is occurring with some proportion of those three possibilities... right? I can't see the SP action changing between now and December 21st. Hard to believe it will do anything other than keep on climbing.

32 trading days between announcement and joining the index. 6 days into that TSLA has climbed an average of $24.55/day. Does that mean it will continue and end up at $1,193.64 by close on Dec 21st?

Or if calculated as a constant fractional appreciation... 6 days into that TSLA has climbed an average of 5.27%/day. Does that mean it will continue and end up at $2,111.08 by close on Dec 21st?

Third possibility: the percentage of climb changes upwards towards the end, as available shares start to dry up (shorts covering, less and less stockholders selling, etc.)