Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm only seeing calls available at a max of $1050for both Jan2022 and Jan2023. Will these be expanded as we continue to ratchet up?

Selling a spread of covered calls in late December with SP at $700 or higher, I'm gonna want to go out past $1050 strikes.

 

[Robocop]

or just use this, put the amount you have now, 10 years at 50% interest and you’ll have a ballpark idea what are you sitting on in 2031:

Compound Interest Calculator - The Calculator Site

humans struggle with compound interest, I know I was.

Do that with TSLA SP and you get a $75 Trillion market cap in 2031. So...

 

[WattsHappening]

Only on this forum

or just use this, put the amount you have now, 10 years at 50% interest and you’ll have a ballpark idea what are you sitting on in 2031:

Compound Interest Calculator - The Calculator Site

humans struggle with compound interest, I know I was.

My returns calculations used to always be based on the 'rule of 72,' i.e., divide 72 by your rate of return to figure out how long it will take you to double your money (e.g., 9% will double your money in 8 years, 12% will double your money in 6 years).

Only on this forum do we talk about 50% returns, doubling your money in less than a year, etc. So awesome.

 

[Paul_SF]

Do that with TSLA SP and you get a $75 Trillion market cap in 2031. So...

Adjust accordingly

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

OT: This gentleman, Emmet Peppers, turned something like $1 mil into $47 mil in a year. He then bought $3mil of options Jan 21 700 strike (I think 3750 contracts?) after S&P announcement.

Not saying to do it right now, but maybe worthwhile to play a couple bucks here and there.

I'm dabbling in it, if a monkey can do it so can you! (@StealthP3D's shaking his head right now) .

As theta decays, his bet loses $100k daily! Need to have some serious brass ones to endure watching that.

On the flip side, it's probably rising 6 or 7-figures every day with all the increases the SP has been showing! Culminating with a final gain of $1.5M for every $4 above 700 that TSLA gains ($37.5M if the stock reaches 800)! I think that's what his point was about it being wrong for him to NOT make that trade (risk reward trade-off too skewed towards the reward).

 

[UncaNed]

I'm only seeing calls available at a max of $1050for both Jan2022 and Jan2023. Will these be expanded as we continue to ratchet up?

Selling a spread of covered calls in late December with SP at $700 or higher, I'm gonna want to go out past $1050 strikes.

They added a few yesterday. My broker said if wanted farther OTM, higher strike, lower premium options, tell them and they can request it from whoever sets those things, and there is a reasonable chance some will be added.

 

[dc_h]

That's great. You probably have a better than 90% chance of walking away with your ~$5K unscathed. But if Tesla goes to 700 in the next week you will be leaving over $150K on the table.

How is the value of those CCs showing in your account right now?

It’s at 567 now. Ok if you want to sell, but we’re likely past 600 next week, barring macro events.

 

[MXWing]

Ugg Thanksgiving is going to be awkward tomorrow.

My inlaws were foolish enough to have me manage their account.

Being conservative, I sold OTM covered calls so they can lock in some profit.

The problem, is I bought those calls in my account.

I'm ITM, but also In the doghouse.

Advice?

 

[FS_FRA]

Ugg Thanksgiving is going to be awkward tomorrow.

My inlaws were foolish enough to have me manage their account.

Being conservative, I sold OTM covered calls so they can lock in some profit.

The problem, is I bought those calls in my account.

I'm ITM, but also In the doghouse.

Advice?

Alcohol, lots of it.....

 

[corduroy]

Only on this forum do we talk about 50% returns, doubling your money in less than a year, etc. So awesome.

Many compound interest calculators max out at 20%. Seeing 50% for a whole decade would be legendary status.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ugg Thanksgiving is going to be awkward tomorrow.

My inlaws were foolish enough to have me manage their account.

Being conservative, I sold OTM covered calls so they can lock in some profit.

The problem, is I bought those calls in my account.

I'm ITM, but also In the doghouse.

Advice?

Start a conversation about $TSLAQ and show them Gordo's videos and get everyone laughing at it...it'll distract them and be a new talking point

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

As theta decays, his bet loses $100k daily! Need to have some serious brass ones to endure watching that.

On the flip side, it's probably rising 6 or 7-figures every day with all the increases the SP has been showing! Culminating with a final gain of $1.5M for every $4 above 700 that TSLA gains ($37.5M if the stock reaches 800)! I think that's what his point was about it being wrong for him to NOT make that trade (risk reward trade-off too skewed towards the reward).

He explains this in their discussions. Maybe more so in the video from a few days ago.

He sees it as a 20% chance Tesla goes to $800, or more. If it does he will get a more than 20x return.

This is simply a bet with great odds as he sees it. He's doing it with less than 10% of the funds money. Yes, some of it's a fund, not all his own money. A large part probably is but not all of it.

There is also a tax angle to it. He has huge taxable gains and if this trade is a loss the tax will be less.

If it really was a good bet comes down to whether 20% likelihood of success was the correct number.

 

[Criscmt]

Yeah, as a long-term investor the exact method of inclusion is not that important to me. But I do think an extended inclusion would likely allow the funds to buy in at lower prices. Anything that could take the pressure off TSLA shares and spread the demand over time could provide an advantage to the funds. The S&P wants their index to perform well and the lower the inclusion price the higher the better the index will perform.

I am simply not that bullish on the funds having to overpay for TSLA. One way or another, I think they will get in at an average price less than $525. But I hope I'm proven wrong. Part of me hopes I'm proven right because lots of mom and pops hold SP500 Index funds.

I strongly share your sentiment about mom and pops getting a good deal. I see that as (a) price that’s lower than the SP one year after inclusion, lower by 10%? Also (b) a price that doesn’t drop too much after inclusion, this is for optics and concerns on volatility.
If we assume that the likes of Dan Ives, Alex potter, and Pierre Ferragu have their math right and they are off on the P&D estimates for the next few years, we should see their bull case as a very fair price, especially for S&P where discount rates aren’t expected to be very high. If we go by that, perhaps $6xx is not a bad price for mom and pops to get in. That price I think would give them good returns, good as in, at least a bit above S&P average without TSLA.

I also am wary of S&P pulling some trick that might cause the SP to drop from current levels. That said, I wonder if benchmarked funds who might be buying now might find an argument to sue S&P through if they back off totally, or even if they push out 50% to next quarter. I haven’t read the exact text in full published by S&P as part of Tesla inclusion announcement, so can’t say how much room they left for themselves to pulling a u-turn at least partly.

 

[Cherry Wine]

$570 sell orders this morning:



EDIT: Lol, breached by the time I posted.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Anyone get the feeling of deja vu...like what happened during the pre-split run up?

 

[Johan]

I'll describe the simple strategy and ignore your "give me" sarcasm:
Step 1: Buy your first shares in this strategy and hold until the shares double in price. Now sell 50% of those shares. The remaining shares are now all zero bases as you have pulled your basis out and bought something that has real use to improve your life. Rinse-Repeat if you want.
Step 2 begin to trade half of those remaining shares on the buy low sell high moves. The timing is not important because with zero commission you could be trading several times a day as the market swings in small increments several times a day. Just follow the timing for the day and be sure your trades execute with market delays that won't make those trades at a loss due to short cycle timing. At best I average two moves a day when working a stock. The big boys can do this several times a minute.

This works really well in a flat market with small swings. It is boring to claim you made a hundred $ in a day on a stock but when you do this eventually every day it adds up, you'll have enough to be long on a hundred shares where you can sell weekly covered calls and collect more cash to buy more shares.
So now you combine the strategies to build share count even faster. But always maintain a long position in 50% of your shares if the company is growing. If that ever changes, then sell out the long position as well.

This isn't my strategy it is described by Jim Cramer and several others who have been at this successfully longer than me. But it worked for me as all my stocks have been at zero basis now for 3 years. I've been at this for 13 years since retiring from my business in TV advertising.

I've been learning from this thread about LEAPS for those long held positions. I need to do some what-if games to see if the risk / reward is worth it. At any rate, I would only do them on 50% of my long blocks of shares. I see they are safer with the SPY because of diversity as opposed to a single company. So many stock Bulls never look at the what-if it goes bad. I examine both and why. What if Musk should leave Tesla? And his replacement is like Steve Balmer at Microsoft, there are many examples like this. But LEAPS in the SPY would be balanced with diversity- No?

Surely you must be joking. If you had the magical ability to buy low and sell higher twice a day for a couple of years consistently you would become one of the richest people on this planet.

 

[Driver Dave]

Looks like from here through December will be no one selling, indexes having to buy, and shorts getting squeezed?

 

[ZeApelido]

I think this says more to how much you understand about multiple doublings than it does about how much money you have.

This old fable is used to illustrate the power of compound growth:



By the time you get to the last square on the chessboard there would be over 18 quintillion grains of rice. That is starting with only one grain. If you start with more than one, you will be unthinkably wealthy after many fewer doublings. People who are always counting "money" and trying to "get ahead" never get there.

Kinda related to the marshmallow test. Do you want a few grains of rice right now, or 18 quintillion later?

 

[4chi]

Happy US Thanksgiving to all the posters in here. Appreciate all the knowledge passed along in this thread. I read it daily but have never posted. So Thanks.

I'm just HODL in several accts. Eyeing a $721 SP to make us Teslanaires.

 

[dc_h]

I never saw a clear answer on this (and I am not investor savvy enough to decipher it). Do those numbers mean that it is probable that the stock price should go down on Friday and therefor be a good buying day due to the 20 millions shares due on Nov 27th? or is it probable that the price should go up because of those shares?

I'm a buy and HODL kinda guy and I know that 'time in market" is greater than "timing the market" but just want to get a little more insight on this information posted by @Artful Dodger. Thanks

Edit: Thanks to everyone here! Great insight with the aggregation of information from around the web.

Probably been answered, but the calls out upward pressure on the stock, as market makers hedge the other side of the calls. It can act as a cap, after the impetus for the calls is over. That said, it’s likely more calls will be bought through the 18th and continue pushing us up. The options could help indexers, since as those expire on the Dec 18th, market makers can sell their hedged stock to funds. That may reduce the normal drop following a large open call week like you see.