Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

What option got you a 220x return? That's insane.

It’s worth pointing out for some of the folks that are interested in dabbling that gains like that on non-lottery ticket call options are unlikely to happen again for TSLA. They occur when the options market fails to anticipate upcoming rapid growth, resulting in options mispricing. This was the scenario in 2019. That is how longer-term calls/LEAPs, which are safer from a risk standpoint, were able to appreciate 1000+%. Typically, the only calls that can pay out like that are way OTM weeklies where you’re just looking to get lucky. Now, even with lower IV, LEAP premiums are such that several thousand % gains are unlikely, so that should not be the expectation.

 

[Mo City]

It’s worth pointing out for some of the folks that are interested in dabbling that gains like that on non-lottery ticket call options are unlikely to happen again for TSLA. They occur when the options market fails to anticipate upcoming rapid growth, resulting in options mispricing. This was the scenario in 2019. That is how longer-term calls/LEAPs, which are safer from a risk standpoint, were able to appreciate 1000+%. Typically, the only calls that can pay out like that are way OTM weeklies where you’re just looking to get lucky. Now, even with lower IV, LEAP premiums are such that several thousand % gains are unlikely, so that should not be the expectation.

Indeed. LEAPS are now priced in such a way they aren't very attractive IMO. But they do offer much better returns than HODL.

I've learned so much about call options the last 60 days my head is ready to explode. Depending how things go in the morning, I'm considering a move into December options before tomorrow's close.

 

[Open Interest]

I’d like to give thanks to this wonderful Tesla community I feel privileged to be part of.

I can’t thank you enough for the education, the encouragement, discussions and laughs along the way. What a journey it has been, especially this year.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

 

[TravelFree]

A lot of people makes this assumption.

No, you pay for your Tesla with your gains. Nothing is free.

grumpy mode off now, I promise Happy thx givin’

That's right he had to work for it by clicking his mouse a few times. I never said I got my Model S for free. I just said my stock trades paid for it as opposed to producing TV commercials like I used to.

 

[woodisgood]

Indeed. LEAPS are now priced in such a way they aren't very attractive IMO. But they do offer much better returns than HODL.

I've learned so much about call options the last 60 days my head is ready to explode. Depending how things go in the morning, I'm considering a move into December options before tomorrow's close.

What strikes are you considering? Most of my December calls are fairly DITM ranging from 280-420, purchased earlier this year, and I’m happy to let them ride through most of the event since they’ll behave like shares.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

On this Thanksgiving, I'm thankful I'm not short TSLA

 

[jeewee3000]

Indeed. LEAPS are now priced in such a way they aren't very attractive IMO. But they do offer much better returns than HODL.

If you buy the LEAPS when TSLA is (relatively) low, yes. If you buy at a peak (which could be right now) you're way better off hodling shares.

Source: experience

 

[Green Pete]

That was the $1 per contract Jan 2021 $650's that @Green Pete gave us the heads-up on last September, sold prematurely in February for $220... Big mistake, currently trading at $2,232 (accounting for split).

That's $2,231,000.00 gains from a single $1000 trade if I had held...

And the June 2022 $1400's I bought bottom(ish) of the C19 dip, for $4.4k and sold there weeks later for $12k, current ask $1680 split-adjusted...

The $1 $650's were a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, I think, totally misplaced, but I was too inexperienced to take advantage and then to hold longer. So year, I traded that $1000 up to $1m anyway, but did it the hard way!

Oooof. I have been hesitating to do the math on what holding these would have been. That hurts lol. I do hope people made some money on that post tho. I certainly didn't make that much on it. But maybe someone did

 

[mickificki]

On this Thanksgiving, I'm thankful I'm not short TSLA

Are you having a turkey burrito?

 

[wipster]

Are you having a turkey burrito?

Ha! I just had two! Breakfast burritos, but Turkey nonetheless!

 

[tinyrodent]

Original German: Verleihung des Axel Springer Awards: "An Evening for Elon Musk - Mission to Mars" live aus Berlin am 1. Dezember, Axel Springer SE, Pressemitteilung - lifePR

Google Translate:

Presentation of the Axel Springer Award: "An Evening for Elon Musk - Mission to Mars" live from Berlin on December 1st

- Elon Musk will personally accept the Axel Springer Award
- Laudation from Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn
- Broadcast in the livestream at https://go2.as/award

On December 1, 2020, Elon Musk will be presented in the Ernst Cramer conference room of the Berlin Axel Springer Personally accept the Axel Springer Award. The media and technology company is honoring the inventive spirit and innovative strength with which Elon Musk has revolutionized several industries. The evening under the motto "An Evening for Elon Musk - Mission to Mars" is specially designed for the award winner and broadcast live on https://go2.as/award from 8 p.m. CET.

The “Mission to Mars” uses various multimedia elements to honor the work, vision and life of one of the most creative entrepreneurs and brilliant engineers of the digital age. The program also includes a business talk in which Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Axel Springer, talks to Elon Musk about what drives and inspires him. Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn will give the laudation for the award winner.

Photo and video material from the evening will be available after the event on www.axelspringer.com.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So has it been established that no decision would actually be announced until later (I thought I saw a December date in another post that I can't find now like Dec 4 or Dec 12) - meaning likely no change in the status quo until that December date despite the November 30 deadline?

The December date is likely conflated with the Quarterly Rebalancing process conducted by S&P Dow Jones Indices. They designate the Closing SP on a certain Friday to reweight each existing constituent of the index, thus reflecting relative changes in value of those equities, and of course their ranking in the index.

TSLA will be an "addition" to the index, a process which uses a different procedure, even though that "addition" may occur on the same effective date as the rebalancing (convenient in this case due to the size of TSLA).

Personally, I think the salient announcement will be the "weight" for TSLA upon addition to the index. If S&P DJI announces that at 5:15 PM EST, Mon Nov 30, 2020 then I will be quite pleased.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are you on the East or West coast of Canada? You seem to post 24/7

See @Khamul

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ INTERLUDE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Are you or a loved one suffering from Tickertitis?

Cases of a severe new disease is on the rise: Tickertitis can infect everybody over the age of 18.

At stage one symptoms are mild; decreased movement, dry and itching eyes, and rhythmic spasms of the index finger. As the disease makes its devastating mark, however, the patient will rapidly experience paralysis, keeping the sufferer immobile in an upright-sitting position. Head and eyes are fixed straight ahead. The only movement is a finger twitching every 2-to-10 second. The symptoms wax and wane in a bi-weekly period, with approximately five days of intense paralysis, followed by two days of softened symptoms, during which the patient will enter a depressive state.

 

[StealthP3D]

Only for the S/X

Elon has made it clear that the Model S is not very important to Tesla's mission and goals. I can't imagine he feels any different about the Model X. The Cybertruck is entirely a different story. No demand problem.

 

[Tslynk67]

Oooof. I have been hesitating to do the math on what holding these would have been. That hurts lol. I do hope people made some money on that post tho. I certainly didn't make that much on it. But maybe someone did

Well yeah, current value of that account is >$1m, all originating from that initiate $1000, thanks, but took the scenic route to get there... $1000 to $185k, back to $60k with C19 crash, then traded to where it is today. If SP hits $1000 then I think will be $2m and I might cash-out the LEAPS, despite the tax hit (~30% to be paid end next year), don't know, will see how things pan out.

 

[Singuy]

Elon has made it clear that the Model S is not very important to Tesla's mission and goals. I can't imagine he feels any different about the Model X. The Cybertruck is entirely a different story. No demand problem.

Tesla's mission is entirely different than margin expansion and contraction. Until we have higher uptick with FSD, S/X plays a pretty decent role to gross margins today. Also because it's on a different cell platform, you don't want to waste good cell production on low margin battery storage when you can get higher margins from s/x.

There will be a day when it no longer matters, that day is not today.

 

[StealthP3D]

Hey Cathy - I’ll show you my holdings if you show me yours!

She would probably laugh at how small it was.

 

[CHGolferJim]

The original poster said.....

"Everytime I hear someone say "my Tesla stock trade bought me a free Tesla" is music to my ears."

so I said...

My tesla stock trade bought me a free tesla"

I was just trying to be funny. Commenting on the original poster.

I have never sold a single share of Tesla and never will I committed to giving it to my children when I die and that's what's going to happen.

Just keep the opportunity cost in mind. I knew a guy who sold company stock options to buy a Miata, and we later teased him that if he’d waited a few years he could have had a Ferrari.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's ok as long as you can cover it with your tesla gains.

Just remember to set aside enough money to buy a parking lot big enough to hold them all...

 

[StealthP3D]

Just keep the opportunity cost in mind. I knew a guy who sold company stock options to buy a Miata, and we later told him that he could have had a Ferrari.

I would take the Miata (or better yet a Model 3).