Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hacer]

FIFO can be adjusted to other sale arrangements. I’ve changed mine with my broker to LIFO (Last In First Out) for minimizing tax ramifications on trading shares.

So you do this because you don't have any (or enough) long-term shares and you want to let the oldest ones age in order to get there? Otherwise you're just guaranteeing short-term capital gains (or losses). Which is generally undesirable.

 

[Paul_SF]

I think it might be a little misunderstanding on what Elon said when he said FSD will worth 100k.

I think he meant that a car with FSD will replace many 2nd and 3rd cars and it will replace a driver job for many that are paying now a driver, be it personal driver, taxi, uber/Lyft... the value of the service itself is more than 100k.

I don’t see how people think the next wave of buyers of the full self driving electric car at a price that is less than what they pay now for 2-3 cars and cheaper to operate will need to send their car to make them $100/day, if that much. That will come, but not at this stage, in my opinion. I think that model is under development and needs the manufacturing and batteries to scale. Cybertruck is the V1 of that platform and the 4680 the batteries needed.

Franz is not joking here:

 

[Johann Koeber]

Business here in Germany is going really well, it seems.

2 weeks ago I ordered another M3 (and last week an MS Plaid). The order page said Feb2021 delivery. Yesterday I got a call that I could take delivery this year if I wish.

So my new M3 has a tentative delivery date of Dec. 24, which is remarkable because that evening is when the Germans celebrate Christmas - you know: presents, nice food, a Christmas tree etc.

So my Christmas present this year is from Tesla (and hopefully next year‘s Christmas as well.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Just had a sudden realization about robototaxis.

As someone who doesn't really need the extra income, and lives somewhere rural (not exactly an uber service in all these fields) I had always assumed that robotaxi would be useless for me, and people like me, who live in super-low density locations/.
But no.
EVERYONE in my village drives, as we have one bus per day (so yeah...there is ONE guy who uses it, he is the only one), and we all have cars. But actually, there are probably quite a few people using their car maybe once or twice a week maximum. Many are retired, and a lot of us get shopping delivered anyway. So unlike a city where our cars are 90% not being used, here its more like 99% unused...

If I could allow my robotaxi to be used only by a pre-selected list of people, I'd likely do it as a community service. Some old lady who lives a few doors from me and needs the car twice a week to pop to the nearby town to meet her friends... I'm fine with that. Why not?

Everyone focuses on the city-scenario where owning a car is inconvenient and robotaxi is the new uber. Thats true, but robotaxi could also be the new rural-car-club.

Villages near me have got together and bought a passenger van. Regularly go to nearest town once a week. Even if they have cars, people use it for the companionship (often retired, quite elderly), no parking problems etc.

People move to villages when they get older, often from London or larger cities when they retire and buy a big house in a nice village with 2 pubs, garage (fuel - petrol, diesel) a post office (small shop) and bus routes. Very few young families as they can't afford the increasing prices.

Often these services disappear and you're left with people who moved to a village that is now lacking services and soul and they drive until they really can't any more (and in my opinion should have stopped years before).

I think Robotaxis can help in these areas. If a few neighbours get together for a regular Wednesday shopping/coffee trip, it can work in more places than those with a strong enough community and resources to buy a minibus that's just sitting there most of the time.

More interesting to me is that these villages become more attractive to young families (even if ovepriced) with teenage kids who otherwise would be bored senseless.

 

[traxila]

The thing is- we've seen first hand that all the other players aren't capable of moving quickly.

VW told us in 2013 they plan to be the leader in EV sales by 2018.

Now they're "hoping" to catch Tesla in another 5-10 years out from 2020.

Virtually every halfway OK ev legacy has produced has ended up heavily constrained by lack of batteries and slow to no construction on fixing that.

Audi etron had production cut from lack of batteries.

Mach e production is quite low from lack of batteries.

Kia/Hyundai has repeatedly said they'd sell a TON more of their EVs if only they had someplace to get batteries.

Tesla meanwhile is likely going to have multiple entire vehicle AND battery factories capable of large output all up and running before GM finishes their one battery only plant that won't produce as much as GF1 in Nevada already did before Roadrunner even came along.

Even Deiss- who absolutely "gets it"- keeps being held back heavily by the more conservative/slow elements at VW


VW chief defies sceptics with ambitious plans to overtake Tesla




and



So by end of 2023 they hope to have made as many EVs as Tesla has already made (and will make the same # again likely in 2021)

And lack of batteries is largely the holdup for them.



That's without getting into their oft discussed software issues, and the fact they seem to think just throwing thousands of bodies at software can fix it.

Again all your points are valid. But all of the half hearted attempts you describe at producing BEVs were stall tactics, especially the earlier ones where they were waiting for Tesla to die.

Come 2025 if it is patently obvious to anyone who cares that the OEMs will fail and go belly up if they do not produce competitive BEVs immediately .... it is amazing what humans can do if they actually decide they must. And there is plenty of money pouring into batteries right now as well.

They do not have to catch Tesla. They just need to make BEVs that are slightly better than their shitty ICE vehicles. They will sell....

 

[Captkerosene]

Being in tech myself, one silver lining to the pandemic has been to demonstrate beyond doubt that people CAN work from home effectively and efficiently, and yes, that meeting COULD have just been an email!

I agree, * Menlo Park and overpriced Silicon Valley real estate. Stay long and move to Idaho if working-from-home is a long-term option.

The thing about these stories...we don't see much of the other side. You know the dude who turned 1 million into 0...or maybe negative numbers.

That happens too.

For some, gambling

Well yeah, current value of that account is >$1m, all originating from that initiate $1000, thanks, but took the scenic route to get there... $1000 to $185k, back to $60k with C19 crash, then traded to where it is today. If SP hits $1000 then I think will be $2m and I might cash-out the LEAPS, despite the tax hit (~30% to be paid end next year), don't know, will see how things pan out.

Many in the investing world have had similar results. Only difference is, they started with a million (or more).

There are many sizes and configurations of child seats. Logistical nightmare.

Something like half the children in the US are being raised by single parents. Funds will be tight for many. The alternative to Tesla will be walking or taking the bus.

 

[clmason]

With the next 2-3 weeks of S&P inclusion drama, I fully expect Elon to fuel the fire with something new that no one was thinking about. When the dust settles I predict $650B market cap and then shortly thereafter Tesla will announce a new CEO comp plan that lays out a roadmap to $2T market cap.

 

[Knightshade]

The other 20 million comes together from all others chipping in a small portion, GM 1 million, VW upto 3 million, and so on, including some Chinese like Xpeng and NIO and also some of the startup EV companies such as Rivian, Lucid etc.

So not a single giant. Where do they all get the cells ? From the new factories that will be built in the next 10 years. Just as Tesla does not have anywhere near enough cell production for 20 million cars today, only for 1/2 a million, but they are planning to build out the cell capacity, the same way LGchem, Samsung, CATL and some of the car makers who start producing their own cells will all build up new cell production.

I guess I don't see how "The competition can just snap their fingers and catch fully up to Tesla on battery output in just a few years anytime they want" is any less Magical Thinking than "The competition can just snap their fingers and catch fully up to Tesla on EVs in general in just a few years anytime they want" that we seem to all agree is untrue.


Tesla has a detailed, specific, plan to get to 20 million in 2030.

Right now.

With advanced next-gen battery tech and design they already have in prototype.

And multiple factories under construction right now

And if the execute it all perfectly they'll finally get there in about 10 years.


But you think the collection of legacy companies who everyone agrees are way behind on cost and technology and the ability to move quickly will somehow wake up in 2025 and get there in 5 years?

(and don't forget LG and CATL production is going at least in part to...Tesla... and will likely keep doing so for some time to come)

Let's just say I have a lot less confidence in the "competition is coming" argument than you appear to.

 

[traxila]

I guess I don't see how "The competition can just snap their fingers and catch fully up to Tesla on battery output in just a few years anytime they want" is any less Magical Thinking than "The competition can just snap their fingers and catch fully up to Tesla on EVs in general in just a few years anytime they want" that we seem to all agree is untrue.


Tesla has a detailed, specific, plan to get to 20 million in 2030.

Right now.

With advanced next-gen battery tech and design they already have in prototype.

And multiple factories under construction right now

And if the execute it all perfectly they'll finally get there in about 10 years.


But you think the collection of legacy companies who everyone agrees are way behind on cost and technology and the ability to move quickly will somehow wake up in 2025 and get there in 5 years?

(and don't forget LG and CATL production is going at least in part to...Tesla... and will likely keep doing so for some time to come)

Let's just say I have a lot less confidence in the "competition is coming" argument than you appear to.

They are waking up right now.

I never called them competition to Tesla. I said that they would find a way in their desperation to produce subpar BEVs that will sell because all kinds of crappy subpar cars sell right now.

I am optimistic that enough batteries will be produced by 2030, a decade from now, that any company which actually wants to build a BEV will be able to.

At this point, if you are not an optimist about the possibilities available to this Earth, then what the hell have you got?

 

[Navin]

I hope FSD has a Venison Processing Mode for trucks with the CyberCamp package. Scoop em right up and into processing. Talk about a time-saver.

I’m sure the lady who always attends shareholder meetings and asks questions about NOT using leather for Tesla cars will enjoy this feature immensely.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

They are waking up right now.

I never called them competition to Tesla. I said that they would find a way in their desperation to produce subpar BEVs that will sell because all kinds of crappy subpar cars sell right now.

I am optimistic that enough batteries will be produced by 2030, a decade from now, that any company which actually wants to build a BEV will be able to.

At this point, if you are not an optimist about the possibilities available to this Earth, then what the hell have you got?

That was my assumption several years ago, but it doesn't seem to be trending in that direction.

A) No one is "waking up", most legacy carmakers are still in some version of denial. Denial is probably the wrong word, it's more like an aggregation of labor union motivations, fossil industry economic codependency, and plain rigid stupidity. A handful, like VW, seem like they're verging on making the turn.

B) Tesla is manufacturing battery cells as quickly as possible, has understood from the start this would be the bottleneck, and is STILL running short. There may be excess supply by 2030, but given the demand for stationary storage I doubt it. And then there's the cost component of not being vertically integrated. Folks will still have 2x the pack costs of Tesla 2yrs after they scale.

The moat grows ever wider. I think it'll stop growing in about 2 years, at which point half today's players die and the other half get serious.

 

[Navin]

The $20 million of Tesla stock Elon Musk purchased as part of his SEC settlement is now worth $167m

 

[Criscmt]

I've posted my thoughts on this already but...
From what I can figure out without knowing anything about "big players" in the stock market, I have come to understand the saying "The Market does not like uncertainty." The rise in SP over the last few days certainly bears that out.
However the S&P 500 Committee kept some "uncertainty" in the addition of TSLA by stating the "Tranches" idea.
It is only my thought without any outside influence, but I think that the "big players" immediately started running simulations on the three scenarios to determine any advantage they may get when it comes to the THREE timelines for admittance as soon as the "announcement" was made...if not sooner.
I would also entertain that the S&P 500 Committee had some understanding of the "uncertain" they were keeping in play when they told the world that TSLA would be admitted, but that timeline had some variance/uncertainty still in it.
I am NOT of the opinion that "big players" are not already strongly impacting the SP by buying the stock for some reason I can not identify or understand. Even to the point that they are purchasing the stock now just so it is available when the time comes so as to keep the SP from becoming a larger magnitude of irrational.
So short answer, Yeah. The Big Boys haven't been inactive. They have already figured their strategy for acquiring the needed amount of stcok based on the three timelines that under consideration. And they may be backdoor buying it not so they can just transfer it over from one account to another because I have read in more than one place if/when they do this the account that is purchasing has to acquire it at the market price at the time. However if enough can be rat-holed away, that action will help dampen the surge during the time The Big Boys are supposed to buy. Which in turn may lessen the SP drop after the buying period, which is good for the Longs.

THREE timelines?
I thought only two dates, of course tranches can be varied. Unless you included some date after Dec-21 as third date.

 

[dc_h]

@Everyone
@Artful Dodger @FrankSG @StealthP3D
1. Is there a case for Tesla to not let TSLA from going too far? If yes, at what SP do you think Tesla should start getting concerned about too high a rise in SP. One reason perhaps is not letting big swings in SP impact employee morale.
2. Do you think a SP equilibrium gets reached without special steps happening, like the company having to issue new shares as a step to stop front runners from totally driving the SP to "unhealthy" levels, level where a huge drop is likely?
3. Do you think Tesla very likely raises more capital at $700 or $800?
4. What surprises are plausible from S&P that could lead to a drop in the SP. Is spreading the weightage across several quarters likely?

I don’t think Elon would raise money to bail out the index funds. He would raise money, if it speeds the mission. I’m not sure they can do anything faster with more cash.

• They need to build 100GWh of battery capacity every year, starting next year, but I think their 4 plants will generate cash to fund the battery plants.
• They need to spend on is semi plants in the USA and China and possibly Europe, but they seem focused on getting the new battery production process going first.
  
• They next big spend following getting the Y in production in Shanghai, Berlin and Austin is the Cybertruck and Semi, likely in Austin. That is also easily funded by operating cash flow.
  
• The next really big investment they could use new cash for is a Model1 or 2 compact class for China and developing world and a compact wagon for Europe. Those are 1-2 million cars per plant investments and could be 10 billion each plant. The issue here is they don’t have a design yet, or batteries, so timing is dependent in engineering cycles and iterations that can’t be speed up much by added cash now.
  Shanghai 3Y production at 500,000 will fund a new Semi plant or a new compact car plant by next year. Based on timing of model 3 to Model Y buildout, it seems reasonable that a new China plant could be announced in Q1.

 

[EVortex]

Assuming legacy automakers either can’t ramp EV production by 2030, or if some of the legacy automakers no longer exist by that time then who will fill the EV production gap?

Perhaps some of the newcomers like Nio, Lucid, or Rivian. But why not Tesla?

Is the 20M production number target set in stone? I realize Tesla has an existing goal and strategy, but those can be adjusted as needed to address future opportunities and challenges.

Who better to ramp production beyond 20M than Tesla?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

And another 11 posts on taxes deducted from this thread.

They can now be found at Tax questions and strategies

 

[Highway2Heel]

So you do this because you don't have any (or enough) long-term shares and you want to let the oldest ones age in order to get there? Otherwise you're just guaranteeing short-term capital gains (or losses). Which is generally undesirable.

Correct. My “first” shares are core shares with a very low cost basis (I first bought at $35 back in 2013). My “last” shares are buy the dip shares that have a much higher cost basis thus lower tax ramifications. This works for me given my most recent purchases having the highest cost basis but it has been pointed out that you can specify transactions based specifically on highest cost which automatically minimizes your tax basis and is irrespective of when you bought time-wise.

 

[Bet TSLA]

This is ironic given what you posted about the meaningless stock split.

You mean where I included this caveat (see Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable)? "About the only effect I can see it might have is that if all stockholders have to engage in some moderate paperwork (by way of their brokers) then it could leave shorts in a tricky position. I have no idea what that might be. Worth considering, but probably meaningless."

From what happened I conclude that the paperwork ended up flushing out any naked shorts, thus eliminating some large unknown number of shares. But that remains a guess. Do you actually know anything about why TSLA went up so much after the split? I haven't heard anything explaining why the shares became more valuable. But I know that a split still changes nothing meaningful because it can't.

Correlation, not (necessarily) causation.

 

[Runarbt]

...
I am optimistic that enough batteries will be produced by 2030, a decade from now, that any company which actually wants to build a BEV will be able to.

At this point, if you are not an optimist about the possibilities available to this Earth, then what the hell have you got?

Realist?

Tesla re-invent batteries for a reason.

The get CATL, Panasonic and LG Chem to join them and build batteries for Teslas need.

There wont be enough for anyone else by 2030..

There wont be enough raw materials.

watch batteryday, and listen to chartcast with Joe Lowry

Joe Lowry on Lithium Mining & Battery Day

New mines take time. Tesla is the only one doing anything to speed up this, and they buy all batteries the big 3 can produce and then some.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Have we reached the top of this runup at 598 yesterday? I believe we have not, if you compare it to the other runups we had this year.

- All of those tops were a blow off top: 965 pre-split in January, 1796 pre-split in July, 498 post-split in August (if you count the 540 in premarket the next day). There was always a big rise on the day the blowoff top was reached. We have not seen that yet in the current runup.

- The previous run ups had a volume spike or at least a high volume on the day of the blow off top. Yesterday’s volume was much lower than the two days before (although the half day of trading after Thanksgiving was ofcourse a major cause).

- It does not yet feel like crazy exuberance, which we did see at the end of most of the other run ups. It still feels like controlled buying pressure, no panic buying.

All these things give me the feeling that this wasn’t the top.

No advice.