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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Ding ding ding!!! Absolutely a giving public mode of transportation doesn’t have to be profitable to be in service or useful. Already cities and townships have subsidized transportation for the elderly/ lower income/ health dependent individuals at a loss for the city. You are absolutely right as a community service it will be ultra popular rural or not.
VW CEO Diess talks openly about the challenges ahead for VW (and legacy auto industry).
He knows that VW needs to massively transform within the next 10 years, or they'll cease to exist. They try to catch up to Tesla by 2024.
How we transform Volkswagen
Or if you want to watch SMRs (Solving the money problem) take on it:
IMO VW has a chance to do ok in the next decade.
This is only true if Diess keeps his job, but that's not certain. There are many conflicting interests from powerful forces within VW.
He knows that VW needs to massively transform within the next 10 years, or they'll cease to exist. They try to catch up to Tesla by 2024.
How we transform Volkswagen
Or if you want to watch SMRs (Solving the money problem) take on it:
IMO VW has a chance to do ok in the next decade.
This is only true if Diess keeps his job, but that's not certain. There are many conflicting interests from powerful forces within VW.
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
Not sure if you guys have had your car in for service recently (or ever) but mine is right now. I called the service center number and it recognized the number I called from and that my car was in service and it informed me of the status. Pretty slick, I was impressed. I remember reading that they developed their service center software in-house to cater to their unique needs but I cant find the article. Tesla really is like 15-20 startup companies combined into 1.
I'm sure you guys already know this but I haven't looked specifically at the 'competition', my son who cant drive yet is really interested in BEV's and we were looking for alternative to a Tesla just for comparison/research/stats (you know how you were when you were a kid and asked 100x questions about cars and had posters on your walls
).- Legacy Automaker Ford: Mustang Mach-E will hold only 39% of its value after 3 years
- Upcoming Automaker: PoleStar 2: Less range and 0-60 than my 2016 MS
The more I see all the facets of Tesla (innovation, vision, production) the more money I put into my HODL account. ‘Why did it take nine hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche?’
Today's reminder that only Tesla takes the charging network seriously and none of the traditional automakers seem to get how important that is. Tesla has the most obvious and basic advantage imaginable over the others, the ability to drive the car further than a single full charge, and no one else cares.
Also The Guardian pretending Tesla didn't exist is funny, but they have been famously anti-Elon for many years now. I wonder if the people of the UK know how much their media is destructive to their nation's interests. Their media is worse than the American media IMO.
Today's reminder that only Tesla takes the charging network seriously and none of the traditional automakers seem to get how important that is. Tesla has the most obvious and basic advantage imaginable over the others, the ability to drive the car further than a single full charge, and no one else cares.
Also The Guardian pretending Tesla didn't exist is funny, but they have been famously anti-Elon for many years now. I wonder if the people of the UK know how much their media is destructive to their nation's interests. Their media is worse than the American media IMO.
Krugerrand
Meow
It was discussed at length why the SP was likely to rise and did so much, beyond the discussions of naked short sellers. You missed the human part of it; arguably the most important factor.
Alternate Universe:
Early 1900's OEM's: "Gas stations? We don't need those, people will figure it out. Not our problem."
Early 1900's GasTesla: "Uh, we're going build gas stations for our cars so they can go places."
Anyone familiar with Ben Felix? Thought his latest video on technological revolutions and investing was pretty relevant to Tesla and the EV market. Anyone smarter than me want to make some sense of it in relation to expectations for TSLA?
I know everyone here is pretty bullish with TSLA but I like to look at alternative view points to make sure I am still making the right decision to stay invested in TSLA. One could easily make the argument that this explains the rise in a stock like Nikola.
I know everyone here is pretty bullish with TSLA but I like to look at alternative view points to make sure I am still making the right decision to stay invested in TSLA. One could easily make the argument that this explains the rise in a stock like Nikola.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Congrats! I got my Model 3 on Christmas Eve in 2017. Still wonderful. Got my new Model S the next week on New Year's Eve. I'm hoping that this year's Christmas present will be V11 firmware with the new full self driving beta included.
So your saying there is a demand problem?
Some cat on this site would be interested in that.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I didn't miss the human part. I explicitly discounted it. That's pretty easy to do on the basis of the many examples of splits that caused nothing whatsoever to happen. It's a mistake to confuse discussions with any actual contribution to knowledge. Most discussions here contribute nothing. I offer as an example the current discussion of car seats for robotaxis.
So do you have any knowledge of why TSLA went up so much after the split was announced? I don't. Does it explain why it suddenly stopped going up as soon as the split happened?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I mean- either you believe Elon or you don't.
He told us on BD the reason they're dumping all these resources into batteries and doing tons of stuff nobody else is doing is, they hope, if they perfectly execute everything on multiple fronts, to reach 20 million a year production on or before 2030.
That everyone else was so far behind, and so slow to do anything to ramp battery production, that this was the only path to scaling production with any speed at all.
Even then he said it'd require "consistently excellent execution" by Tesla to get to that 20 million goal on or before 2030. I expect they can certainly do that- but seems unlikely they'd somehow magically get WAY past that goal vastly sooner than even Elon says they can.
Doubtless if everyone else is still dragging along making crap they'll continue trying to ramp well beyond that in future years... but if you believe Elon they're going to have to have other car makers step up quite a lot for those imagining 50% EVs among new car sales in 10 years.
And mostly those guys besides not being ready on the car front, aren't remotely ready or even seriously working toward being ready, on the battery front.
Ford is still debating if having ANY battery production at all makes sense for them.
GM is working on ONE plant that in another year or two might produce 15-20% less cells than GF-Nevada will produce this year.
Toyota is hoping, in another 2 years, to open a plant to make batteries for hybrids- not even full EVs.
Hyundai is recently in "talks" about the idea of building A battery factory eventually...maybe...
VW, the guys who insist they are taking EVs VERY SERIOUSLY FOR REAL are building A battery plant in Germany... they expect it will open late 2023 to early 2024 with an initial production less than half what GF-N does in 2020, and they hope to expand that to about 2/3rds what GF-N did in 2020.
As I say this bumbling incompetence on the part of legacy is excellent for Tesla investors... but not so great for folks who keep thinking other companies are just gonna start churning out millions of EVs anytime soon.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Bizarre. You claim you have some knowledge of the motivations and feelings of the S&P 500 committee members? In truth you have no idea why they did what they did. You are just inventing stuff here to fit your narrative. You are also claiming to know how Elon feels, which is nonsense. All you know about is what he's said, not his motivations. And you provide no citation for what statement "made it clear that he doesn't hold these types in very high regard." I don't believe you. You provide no support for what you say and your track record is awful.
No. I wrote exactly what I meant. Tesla in two cases and TSLA in one. Once again you are pretending to know what other people mean when you have no idea. Try responding to what people say rather than what you imagine they mean.
People here were hugely anticipatory of S&P inclusion throughout August and into early September, then they turned bitter when TSLA wasn't included in the index at that time, and (in general) ranted about how irrelevant the S&P 500 was becoming and how Tesla didn't need them. The rest of this has nothing to do with what I wrote and you responded to.
All of this simply demonstrates how people, including people here, aren't particularly rational or consistent. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
You cannot convince me so easily that other players will not get involved. Big players. Trillions of dollars roaming around the world looking to invest and they will not find themselves into the economy of the future?
I have heard the raw material argument used before. All it really means is that there has to be a market and profit.
Let’s mark this and revisit in a year.
BTW, I am betting on Tesla. Have been for years. I was optimistic.
You are right that it does not feel like irrational exuberance. Everyone on non-tesla specific investing boards are calling this an 'obvious bubble', which actually gives me more confidence that the run-up may be much larger than people are expecting and that the possible dip post-Dec 21 won't be as big as people are expecting.
I would be more concerned if everyone on /r/investing and /r/stocks was saying TSLA is an obvious investment choice.
Apple doesn't need to do a paradigm shift. They need to hold back improvements to create buying cycles every year.
Our household changes 4 iPhones every year with the Apple upgrade program. They also get us on watches, apps, iCloud subscriptions, iPads.
5G cycle though is substantial enough to have a strong runway through 2021.
Will return less than TSLA but AAPL is the highest yielding "bond" ever.
... or MAGNET
Cheers!
- MSFT
- APPL
- GOOGL
- NFLX
- ETSY
- TSLA
I prefer S&P T499
Tesla and 499 top performing friends.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Steve Jobs was a dynamic leader who built an amazing company. He has only been gone 9 years so it's too soon to say with any certainty that handing the torch to Tim Cook has led to greater successes. Steve Jobs once said, "Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower". I believe it's possible to coast for 9 years on the coat tails of an innovative leader like Jobs. Look at your other tales of corporate demise. How long did it take for those companies to fail after their innovation left them? A lot longer than 9 years!
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This gem of a video came to mind again with me envisioning how the conference call went.
Disclaimer: Apparently it's not as funny if you understand German.
I agree with most of your post, but I also think that Tesla can scale beyond 20M. Manufacturing, battery, and tech innovation will continue to allow for lower costs and faster ramp-ups in new factories all over the world. I think Elon is careful not to be overly aggressive with long-term goals, but I also know he can adapt to new opportunities and has the ability to execute when others say it’s not possible.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
All of this simply demonstrates how people, including people here, aren't particularly rational or consistent. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
I would suggest you believe I'm being inconsistent because you didn't bother to actually understand what I said. It might be necessary to leave personal biases behind and read it again.
Tesla had settled down to a nice solid $408/share before S&P announced they had decided to include them. By my reckoning it would be above that right now with no announcement. Tesla doesn't need their share price to be higher than that to succeed brilliantly. Anyone who doesn't understand that is confusing the performance of the share price with performance of the underlying company.
It's obviously true that the S&P 500 needed Tesla more than Tesla needed the S&P 500. It boggles my mind why you take issue with something so self-evident.
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