Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

I don't see how spreading this inclusion over six months would dramatically lower the peak SP. Buying would continue in the same volumes, shareholders would likely be even LESS inclined to sell, and all sorts of +macro evens could pile on. The spike might be shaved by 10-20%, but I bet avg purchase price might end up even higher.

Lets say they spread it out through 2Q.....what happens when "500k achieved" is announced? Then what about when 2021 guidance is set for 100% growth(1M)? Then what about when 4Q earnings come out? Then 1Q? Then stimulus? Then a clearer Biden agenda is announced with Green New Deal traction?

There's no way out. These clowns should've just announced inclusion with a 7 day notice like usual. They decided to get cute and now there's no turning back. I would just do one day 12/21. It's gonna cause a spike, but the alternatives could be worse.

Here's an argument that the runup will NOT be followed by a big pullback, regardless of whether inclusion is spread out:

Two groups of funds are being forced to buy TSLA: index funds and benchmarked funds. The indexers have to finish buying by a certain date and don't care much what price they pay. But the benchmarkers (who need even more shares, according to Rob Maurer) have more time flexibility and do care about the price. What will the latter group do?

They will buy before the indexers start, but slowly so they don't spike the price too much, then wait for the indexers to finish so they can catch the pullback after. But they can't wait too long or someone else will catch it before they do and drive up the price again, especially with all the catalysts coming that @TheTalkingMule mentioned. They have to buy the pullback before it gets too big.

So I think I'm gonna HODL through this whole runup and not expect much of a pullback. What am I missing?

 

[StealthP3D]

ARE Cybertruck supposed to be impervious to deer strikes? What a GREAT selling point that would be!

(from a poster who hit 3 deer before finally accepting that they have NO idea which lane they're supposed to be in)

I'm surprised anyone who has been in a vehicle that struck a good sized deer at any speed would think the Cybertruck could be impervious (it will be more resistant to damage depending upon specifics but, under the right circumstances, a deer strike will still be capable of totaling the vehicle). And let's not even speak of elk and moose.

The amount of energy involved at higher speeds is tremendous!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

View attachment 612877
Thanks to $TSLA! Definitely a once in a lifetime opportunity and i am glad we are all here for the ride! Whatever happens to $TSLA in short term does not affect my decision to sell...i am still constantly adding and will continue to add until i see any fundamental changes that change my mind.

I'm guessing that's not too far off from your one year change in value. Been an amazing year in so many different ways. Luckily I was able to experience a divorce to really make this year exciting. Must have been a little dull for the rest of you.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Smart governments will institute real time tolls/taxes to provide an incentive to spread traffic out during the day.

This brings up one reason I doubt the widespread adaptation of the robotaxi concept. When I want to go somewhere, I want to go downstairs, get in my car and leave. I don't want to have to wait 15 minutes for my ride to get there. I also don't want my ride to leave because I didn't have my sugar together at the appointed time. I sure don't want to plan my trips for when it's the most tax advantageous.

 

[Runarbt]

This brings up one reason I doubt the widespread adaptation of the robotaxi concept. When I want to go somewhere, I want to go downstairs, get in my car and leave. I don't want to have to wait 15 minutes for my ride to get there. I also don't want my ride to leave because I didn't have my sugar together at the appointed time. I sure don't want to plan my trips for when it's the most tax advantageous.

With robotaxi - it wont take 15 minutes. It might be the neighbors car which come to pick you up, or one 2 minutes away.
And with no driver sitting and waiting for you - there should be no problem for the car to wait 15-20 minutes, without it costing any extra.

Does this sound any better?

 

[UncaNed]

So you do this because you don't have any (or enough) long-term shares and you want to let the oldest ones age in order to get there? Otherwise you're just guaranteeing short-term capital gains (or losses). Which is generally undesirable.

In my taxed account, I do this (assign shares by tax ID) in my brokerage's website to manage for tax purposes; by setting the cost basis of unsettled closed positions, sometimes to avoid closing a position that's almost reached the year necessary for Long Term Cap gain, or assigning by ID something that shows a very small short term gain sooner, saving the big ones for a year when my tax bracket happens to be lower.

It might be worth having your brokerage talk you through this process, especially if you day trade in a taxed account, also new guys should learn what the WASH rule is if you don't already know.

Not advice, except if you aren't familiar with it, my advice is to learn about it before doing much trading.

 

[StealthP3D]

So I think I'm gonna HODL through this whole runup and not expect much of a pullback. What am I missing?

Big losses, sleepless nights, an angry spouse, digestive troubles, irritability, drunkenness, despair, short-term capital gains taxes. On the other hand, if you trade it, you could be experiencing big gains, sleepless nights, an ecstatic spouse, drunkenness, digestive troubles, irrational exuberance, and turning long-term capital gains into short-term capital gains.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

With robotaxi - it wont take 15 minutes. It might be the neighbors car which come to pick you up, or one 2 minutes away.
And with no driver sitting and waiting for you - there should be no problem for the car to wait 15-20 minutes, without it costing any extra.

Does this sound any better?

Sure, if that's the reality but we don't know what the reality will be. That roboride might not wait for me. It will be programed to maximize profits.

 

[Robertj]

Nice comparison
GM versus Tesla

 

[Nocturnal]

And after Tesla disrupts the auto/truck market, will Elon ask his engineers to work on the Hyperloop and disrupt the short haul airline market?

L5 autonomy is going to murder the short haul market on its own. The cost and hassle savings are huge.

Sure, if that's the reality but we don't know what the reality will be. That roboride might not wait for me. It will be programed to maximize profits.

Why not? The the expensive part of an Uber waiting for you is the driver’s time. I’d honestly expect a setup where the car shows up every morning at your house at 6AM and if you make it wait until 6:10 that might just cost a buck.

 

[StealthP3D]

If they announce inclusion to take place over two quarters, I’d expect a dip as calls are repositioned.

The Wall Street Journal story alone might be enough to set off a minor correction.

Note: I didn't read the article, just some excerpts posted here.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Here's an argument that the runup will NOT be followed by a big pullback, regardless of whether inclusion is spread out:

Two groups of funds are being forced to buy TSLA: index funds and benchmarked funds. The indexers have to finish buying by a certain date and don't care much what price they pay. But the benchmarkers (who need even more shares, according to Rob Maurer) have more time flexibility and do care about the price. What will the latter group do?

They will buy before the indexers start, but slowly so they don't spike the price too much, then wait for the indexers to finish so they can catch the pullback after. But they can't wait too long or someone else will catch it before they do and drive up the price again, especially with all the catalysts coming that @TheTalkingMule mentioned. They have to buy the pullback before it gets too big.

So I think I'm gonna HODL through this whole runup and not expect much of a pullback. What am I missing?

I 100% agree....its ok if it pulls back 10%-20% after a 100% run up..it will just base again until the next catalyst.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don't see how spreading this inclusion over six months would dramatically lower the peak SP. Buying would continue in the same volumes, shareholders would likely be even LESS inclined to sell, and all sorts of +macro evens could pile on. The spike might be shaved by 10-20%, but I bet avg purchase price might end up even higher.

Lets say they spread it out through 2Q.....what happens when "500k achieved" is announced? Then what about when 2021 guidance is set for 100% growth(1M)? Then what about when 4Q earnings come out? Then 1Q? Then stimulus? Then a clearer Biden agenda is announced with Green New Deal traction?

There's no way out. These clowns should've just announced inclusion with a 7 day notice like usual. They decided to get cute and now there's no turning back. I would just do one day 12/21. It's gonna cause a spike, but the alternatives could be worse.

Yeah, I think someone is getting fancy with their SP predictive modeling and trying to avoid the infinity squeeze. The early announcement plus one tranche may have modeled as a ramp and a less severe squeeze. Early announcement and two tranches a week apart might have been a ramp, a step-up and an even less severe squeeze. Any longer separation and I think you're right, EOQ and election dynamics start making things less predictable.

I’m still betting on 50/50 tranches a week apart.

 

[2virgule5]

People who write poetry about stocks are just the kind of people to crash someone’s mountain uninvited. I’ll bet some of them are even from Nantucket.

Ok, I must have missed a meeting or two, but when did ‘we’ move from owning islands to mountains???

 

[redan]

Luckily I was able to experience a divorce to really make this year exciting.

Hopefully it became final before the stock split and later stock catalysts!

 

[Highway2Heel]

All moves forward are best accompanied by appreciative and informative looks backward...case in point...

 

[juanmedina]

popcorn:

https://twitter.com/ValueAnalyst1/status/1333063407839358981

 

[StealthP3D]

I wonder if there might be some trepidation Monday about the S&P addition decision. The market doesn’t like uncertainty. We may get a nice dip to add more shares/calls for the inevitable inclusion event(s).

Certainly. I would expect more negative news/FUD to follow this initial attack. It's becoming more clear to me that the extended period between announcement and inclusion and the different options for inclusion timeline were designed to provide uncertainty, volatility and trading volume through the inclusion process. These things would have a good chance of preventing an "infinity squeeze".

 

[Mo City]

View attachment 612877
Thanks to $TSLA! Definitely a once in a lifetime opportunity and i am glad we are all here for the ride! Whatever happens to $TSLA in short term does not affect my decision to sell...i am still constantly adding and will continue to add until i see any fundamental changes that change my mind.

Majors congrats!

You are just getting started.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ok, I must have missed a meeting or two, but when did ‘we’ moved from owning islands to mountains???

First principles. Thanks to climate change those mountains will be islands soon.