Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Futures quotes are now alive in NYC. All 3 major indices are +UP.

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

What I think is being missed is doubling of cars on the road. Half the cars going to get someone and half the cars driving someone. I'm not sure if that's a bad thing or not. Maybe a bad thing for those who do not have fsd.

It is much more complex than that, and will be less than a doubling. Give it some thought. I can not list all the scenarios where "miles" will be saved.

 

[lafrisbee]

Here's an argument that the runup will NOT be followed by a big pullback, regardless of whether inclusion is spread out:

Two groups of funds are being forced to buy TSLA: index funds and benchmarked funds. The indexers have to finish buying by a certain date and don't care much what price they pay. But the benchmarkers (who need even more shares, according to Rob Maurer) have more time flexibility and do care about the price. What will the latter group do?

They will buy before the indexers start, but slowly so they don't spike the price too much, then wait for the indexers to finish so they can catch the pullback after. But they can't wait too long or someone else will catch it before they do and drive up the price again, especially with all the catalysts coming that @TheTalkingMule mentioned. They have to buy the pullback before it gets too big.

So I think I'm gonna HODL through this whole runup and not expect much of a pullback. What am I missing?

Stealth tells me you are being waaaay too rational.

 

[MABMAB]

At what point should I stop buying stock?
When will or did you stop buying?

 

[lafrisbee]

WTF.
I am lying left and right.

Every post I write seems to be a lie.

I can't remember how much I paid for my stock.

I can't remember when I bought it how much I dreamed it would go up.

I can't even be honest about when I will sell.

I was really really hoping it would double in 2 years. I was going to be ecstatic IF that happened. And here it has quadrupled and I am disoriented, and greedy.

I should have sold before the split if I was being honest with you (and myself) just after I bought this stock.

I guess the only thing I can say is that I thought I knew me, I thought I knew what I would do.

I don't.

WTF am I going to do?

 

[Robocop]

At what point should I stop buying stock?
When will or did you stop buying?

When you've sold every other stock, run out of money, your wallet is empty, and are out of margin.

 

[lafrisbee]

I was hoping to pay, at most, about $50k for a few acres of swamp next to a creek to put a 400sqft cabin on and contemplate my navel while I watched my Cybertrck rust and the odd rare bird species migrate through.

My retirement plans are morphing. Now I can afford the most expensive piece of land I was considering a year ago. A ten acre finger of rock with the creek wrapping around it. I might even have to start trying to understand a different level of the real estate market.

If this keeps up I will be able to eat at McD's anytime I want...if the SP goes real high I won't even feel the need to eat off the Dollar Menu. I don't know if my principles will allow me to do that. Perhaps I''ll feel like royalty?

This whole TSLA ride is like a personal discovery. But one where every aspect of it is new, and the end is unknown....

Do you all realize for the first time in many years I did not use my annual "50% off one item under $30" Black Friday Ace Hardware Coupon!

 

[ggr]

I'm fed up. People completely ignore moderator instructions to stop posting about ... anything... colonoscopies, child seats, politics, island vs. mountain, Coronavirus, sex, sexism, attacks on other members, whatever. Then there are so many different off-topic subjects that there is no hope of managing them; mods can at best handle one subject at a time, and only if they catch it in time. Some people get upset when we delete something and post anti-mod diatribes (which, by the way, we don't usually delete, because they aren't against any actual rules), and even lie about the contents of what was deleted, or claim it was autocorrect. Others tell us how to do our jobs, or how to fix the software that we have no say in.

 

[madodel]

Perhaps I''ll feel like royalty?

So Burger King?

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm fed up. People completely ignore moderator instructions to stop posting about ... anything... colonoscopies, child seats, politics, island vs. mountain, Coronavirus, sex, sexism, attacks on other members, whatever. Then there are so many different off-topic subjects that there is no hope of managing them; mods can at best handle one subject at a time, and only if they catch it in time. Some people get upset when we delete something and post anti-mod diatribes (which, by the way, we don't usually delete, because they aren't against any actual rules), and even lie about the contents of what was deleted, or claim it was autocorrect. Others tell us how to do our jobs, or how to fix the software that we have no say in.

I've been reflecting on my role in "Apple Gate" and the problem is responding to posts that are off topic, when you disagree, or think some aspect has been overlooked, it is easy to take that bait.

We all need to be smarter, that begins by reflecting on instances when you have contributed to the problem.,

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm fed up. People completely ignore moderator instructions to stop posting about ... anything... colonoscopies, child seats, politics, island vs. mountain, Coronavirus, sex, sexism, attacks on other members, whatever. Then there are so many different off-topic subjects that there is no hope of managing them; mods can at best handle one subject at a time, and only if they catch it in time. Some people get upset when we delete something and post anti-mod diatribes (which, by the way, we don't usually delete, because they aren't against any actual rules), and even lie about the contents of what was deleted, or claim it was autocorrect. Others tell us how to do our jobs, or how to fix the software that we have no say in.

Im as guilty as any. Maybe a “disagree” if post goes off-topic?

 

[PeterJA]

...Regarding robotaxi, believe me I lean on the optimistic side but I don't see anyone here bringing up the possible reasons why it might not get widely adopted....

You missed lots of discussion of possible reasons, most of which can be rejected with a little imagination.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

I don't think there's any doubt some form of robotaxi will be a thing in the near future. The question is, how big will it get. The possible range is; small niche serving city centers in good weather climates to 100% adaptation across the board.

No, that is not the possible range. A hundred percent adoption is highly unlikely, since cars have not 100% replaced horses. And your low end is similarly unlikely, since Uber alone has higher usage, unless you consider 19 million trips per day in over 900 cities globally to be "small niche serving city centers in good weather climates."

Where will it fall within that range...

How about somewhere in the middle? In a place (NYC) where fairly cheap, fairly convenient alternatives to car ownership are available (subway, buses, trains), over half of commuters use them. Robotaxis will be similarly cheap, more convenient, and eventually available everywhere. Only a pessimist would doubt wide adoption.

...and how much value will that mean for Tesla?

A shiteload.
My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential by @FrankSG.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm fed up. People completely ignore moderator instructions to stop posting about ... anything... colonoscopies, child seats, politics, island vs. mountain, Coronavirus, sex, sexism, attacks on other members, whatever. Then there are so many different off-topic subjects that there is no hope of managing them; mods can at best handle one subject at a time, and only if they catch it in time. Some people get upset when we delete something and post anti-mod diatribes (which, by the way, we don't usually delete, because they aren't against any actual rules), and even lie about the contents of what was deleted, or claim it was autocorrect. Others tell us how to do our jobs, or how to fix the software that we have no say in.

I don’t envy your position. I think you do about the best you can. A lot of it really depends on the users to self-police.

 

[SteveG3]

my two cents on this run from $408 since the S&P announcement

main points I’m aware of that are different about Tesla being added to S&P than what is typical for an add

- largest absolute dollar amount of an S&P add is (roughly $60-70B for tracking funds, could be more or less for benchmarking funds) draws attention to this event

- “hodl” crowd, TSLA for some being beyond a financial asset ownership... what some like to spin as a “cult,” I don’t see as ignoring valuation, but rather not being the only value oriented reason for owning the stock (ie, “I value the mission,” etc)

- options trading, delta hedging that seems to have escalated over the past year and into the C19 reality (not unique to TSLA, but TSLA is a strong example, and perhaps the 1st such impacted stock added to the S&P during this period)

- all of the above, plus the counterpoint to the hodl crowd, the many years FUD flood, contributing to TSLA being one of the very most prominent stocks on the minds of people who even pay only passing attention to the markets

- next point I believe to be the case, but I’ve not explicitly researched it to verify: float is a smaller percent of total shares than is typical

- Tesla was not already in the S&P 400 before this add (rules out some S&P Index funds being able to do some of their share acquisition by transferring funds held in a sister S&P 400 fund)

key point I understand to *not* be different about Tesla’s addition vs other companies

- amount of TSLA shares needing to be bought by indexes (or potentially bought by actively managed for that manner) relative to total number of Tesla shares. I know this can seem counterintuitive, but the 15% or so of Tesla shares indexes need to buy, as I understand it is plain vanilla. It is not Tesla specific, but rather is driven by the total market value of the companies in the S&P relative to the total value of all funds indexing it (now, there is a little difference specific to each add due to varying percents of total shares in float).

 

[SteveG3]

my two cents on this run from $408 since the S&P announcement

main points I’m aware of that are different about Tesla being added to S&P than what is typical for an add

- largest absolute dollar amount of an S&P add is (roughly $60-70B for tracking funds, could be more or less for benchmarking funds) draws attention to this event

- “hodl” crowd, TSLA for some being beyond a financial asset ownership... what some like to spin as a “cult,” I don’t see as ignoring valuation, but rather not being the only value oriented reason for owning the stock (ie, “I value the mission,” etc)

- options trading, delta hedging that seems to have escalated over the past year and into the C19 reality (not unique to TSLA, but TSLA is a strong example, and perhaps the 1st such impacted stock added to the S&P during this period)

- all of the above, plus the counterpoint to the hodl crowd, the many years FUD flood, contributing to TSLA being one of the very most prominent stocks on the minds of people who even pay only passing attention to the markets

- next point I believe to be the case, but I’ve not explicitly researched it to verify: float is a smaller percent of total shares than is typical

- Tesla was not already in the S&P 400 before this add (rules out some S&P Index funds being able to do some of their share acquisition by transferring funds held in a sister S&P 400 fund)

key point I understand to *not* be different about Tesla’s addition vs other companies

- amount of TSLA shares needing to be bought by indexes (or potentially bought by actively managed for that manner) relative to total number of Tesla shares. I know this can seem counterintuitive, but the 15% or so of Tesla shares indexes need to buy, as I understand it is plain vanilla. It is not Tesla specific, but rather is driven by the total market value of the companies in the S&P relative to the total value of all funds indexing it (now, there is a little difference specific to each add due to varying percents of total shares in float).

As it turns out, my view is that every point in that first group, how Tesla’s addition is unique or atypical, are attributes that likely add to any upswing TSLA was going to have due to the addition.

Theres one item I think is important (and counterintuitive) re TSLA that is typical of S&P adds, that point I view as a current in all this trading in the direction of moderating TSLA’s rise towards the norm.

So, overall, more extra boost than not.

How have I handled this?

Two points of context first... I’ve kept a basic core position without any sells from 2012 through 2019 based on valuation. It was valuation, with plenty of help from TMC in estimating that despite all the noise, that had me hold through those years and just add trading shares on irrational selloffs. This whole S&P event I see as a trading event, not tied to Tesla’s performance and underlying value. I doubt anybody really has insight re where the trading goes near term... neither $1,100, $350, or both within the next 5-6 weeks would surprise me.

Second point, I had a very large portion of my assets in TSLA over that time, and it’s probably not even a good idea for me to focus on hitting homeruns in my portfolio at this point.


So, as I saw from the $408 price at announcement better than avg S&P add dynamics likely in this non-valuation event, I’ve had a somewhat bullish bias, offset by my valuation focus and awareness that this move is not about a change in Tesla’s success.

I could see TSLA doing anything from 2X to 10X over the next decade as reasonably plausible scenarios. With that I trimmed in a first round at an avg price of $490, and I’m in the middle of doing so again in what would avg $590 if completed. Would do so again from about $660-720... which would bring me to TSLA being about 25% of my assets.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Im as guilty as any. Maybe a “disagree” if post goes off-topic?

How about an “off topic” voting button? And an option to auto hide posts with a certain number or ratio of “off topic” votes?

 

[Sanny]

Maybe it is just me, but for the next 3 weeks, s&p500 inclusion will be the most important topic for me. I do not want to miss useful info and have to skim through everything. Suggesting to create one official thread for those discussions.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm fed up. People completely ignore moderator instructions to stop posting about ... anything... colonoscopies, child seats, politics, island vs. mountain, Coronavirus, sex, sexism, attacks on other members, whatever. Then there are so many different off-topic subjects that there is no hope of managing them; mods can at best handle one subject at a time, and only if they catch it in time. Some people get upset when we delete something and post anti-mod diatribes (which, by the way, we don't usually delete, because they aren't against any actual rules), and even lie about the contents of what was deleted, or claim it was autocorrect. Others tell us how to do our jobs, or how to fix the software that we have no say in.

This is going to sound like brown nosing but perhaps we need a (anonymous) “buy a mod a beer” button. I get grumpy at times but fully understand being a mod is a *sugar* job.

 

[UncaNed]

I'm fed up. People completely ignore moderator instructions to stop posting about ... anything... colonoscopies, child seats, politics, island vs. mountain, Coronavirus, sex, sexism, attacks on other members, whatever. Then there are so many different off-topic subjects that there is no hope of managing them; mods can at best handle one subject at a time, and only if they catch it in time. Some people get upset when we delete something and post anti-mod diatribes (which, by the way, we don't usually delete, because they aren't against any actual rules), and even lie about the contents of what was deleted, or claim it was autocorrect. Others tell us how to do our jobs, or how to fix the software that we have no say in.

You may be fed up, but your efforts are very, very much appreciated @ggr . I don't know the answer short of refining our personal Ignored lists (Mine has over 40 now, who make this forum totally unusable had I left them in), I've suggested a rating system, Off Topic vote arrangement or something, an option to see ONLY your Ignored members to make it easier to check for mistakes in my choice of Ignored members, but my suggestions would require a system software from the owners of TMC, who, no offense intended, and I certainly do not mean to come across as ungrateful for this wonderful forum, seem to be AWOL as near as I can tell. I've proposed a subscription arrangement for such changes, but again only heard mostly crickets, with a (much appreciated) couple of responses.

The Roundtable Roundup is a brilliant breath of fresh air (thank you, @Zasheworth !!) so long as you can wait till the next day to catch up on the "Top 100 Informative + Helpful" posts.

In any case, thank you @ggr and @Right_Said_Fred and other mods.

 

[UncaNed]

I could see TSLA doing anything from 2X to 10X over the next decade as reasonably plausible scenarios. With that I trimmed in a first round at an avg price of $490, and I’m in the middle of doing so again in what would avg $590 if completed. Would do so again from about $660-720... which would bring me to TSLA being about 25% of my assets.

@SteveG3 , so if TSLA was then 25% of your assets, you'd have 75% that are invested in something better? What on earth could that be? Thanks for sharing.