Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Didn’t get to write this before the market opened, but I think that 163,000 share block at $603 right at 8:00 was a remarkable slug for any pre-market trading. Almost exactly $100 million.

 

[MABMAB]

Fast market, order execution is poor. Beware

 

[petit_bateau]

Using the Oct-2020 YTD numbers from EV sales : EV Sales: Global Top 20 October 2020 and adding in a few fairly crude kWh and $$ metrics I get these stats for Tesla's overall position vs the competition in the BEV+PHEV arena. The big unknown is what is hidden in the 56% of 'other' but I reckon it is mostly various micro-EV stuff. If you have better data let me know.

regards, pb/dspp
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First by model:

Then by manufacturer:

 

[lafrisbee]

Wasn't "moderators", it was one moderator. Wasn't a dispute either, she was just made to feel very unwanted, so left. There was a window of opportunity for her to return, along with Fact Checking, but that has passed. I tried.

OK, I see the cyclical discussion about content on this forum... my thoughts...

I spend a lot of time here, I read every post, some quicker than others, conversely some I have to read several times to understand, someI never will.

I personally appreciate the interjections of humour we get and I like a bit of banter between us, I would hate to see this be out-lawed and the forum to become sterile, we are humans, after all, plus the odd house-pet. Imagine Curt's William Tell being deleted after another ATH, indeed, unthinkable.

Two things that I feel can be improved:
- the tendency to go down rabbit-holes on any range of subjects other than something pertinent to $TSLA, the moment this starts to happen, take it to an separate thread, I've learned to speed-read these myself
- some posters feel the need to post constantly, about everything, maybe you could just throttle that back bit too, because I look at the avatars passing and skill those too

Otherwise keep it as it is.

BTW, for the asking for changes to the forums itself: filters, different voting buttons, note that the mods have no leeway over this at all, they can only work with what they're given. I was hoping they might update the forum software itself to something more modern with some flexibility, but not happened yet.

And for all you newly-minted Teslanairs, if you don't do so yet, become a supporting member...

I am asking for a friend (cuz my measly amount of shares can't buy the city-state of TMC nuttin'), what would it cost to "update the software?
See where I'm goin' wid dis.... you all?

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Into the jaws of death, into the mouth of hell, rode the 600.” -- TSLAQ

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Nocturnal]

My original plan was to reduce my holdings back to a reasonable % of my assets, like I did after the split, once we hit close to $800. Fortunately I was pulled back in with seemingly cheap prices after that so I'm again sitting at 80% or so TSLA exposure. Now I'm questioning that plan as I see plenty of smart analysis that suggest $800 give or take, might be a stable price in the mid-term.

This week...metaphorically speaking and harkening back about 30+ years...everyone is finally coming to the realization that Original Coke >>>>>>>>> New Coke.

This response is relevant to Tesla because of the ongoing "should Tesla pay for marketing" discussion. New Coke actually did technically taste better than original coke. The issue is that our brains have been so saturated with marketing that the memory portion of your brain overrides the taste portion of your brain. Like Pepsi, New Coke was sweeter and performed better in blind taste tests. It's the explanation of the Pepsi Paradox. Fortunately for us, the positive associations with gas cars aren't as fixed as associations that come with soda.

 

[Knightshade]

*GM SIGNS MOU WITH NIKOLA TO SUPPLY HYDROTEC FUEL CELL SYSTEMS

Man - GM had their chance to get away from this. They are dead.

On the contrary-

Moves GM from potentially taking future-worthless stock as payment to only taking actual cash, and not getting corporately intertwined either.

GM changed the deal to 'Hey if NKLA wants to give us the hundreds of millions in cash they still have to buy parts nobody else really wants anyway (fuel cells)- we're happy to take money from anybody.

Not that I think GMs brilliant or anything but it leaves them open to taking payments without any real downside related to the value of NKLA, and without having to openly admit they didn't bother with due diligence.

 

[bkp_duke]

On the contrary-

Moves GM from potentially taking future-worthless stock as payment to only taking actual cash, and not getting corporately intertwined either.

GM changed the deal to 'Hey if NKLA wants to give us the hundreds of millions in cash they still have to buy parts nobody else really wants anyway (fuel cells)- we're happy to take money from anybody.

Not that I think GMs brilliant or anything but it leaves them open to taking payments without any real downside related to the value of NKLA, and without having to openly admit they didn't bother with due diligence.

Financially, that is correct. But they now have to provide fuel cells to NKLA, and unless I missed some news flash, they have a lot of R&D to complete in order to do that. It's not an off-the-shelf component that they have ready to sell right now. That R&D will be a significant expense for GM.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Yes, but my understanding is that the path planning for the vehicle is software 1.0--traditional logic-based programming. That's where I'm seeing much of the improvement, and where AI/Dojo probably has minimal impact at this point. Elon did Tweet about a week ago that we're still a ways away from deep NNs doing the actual path routing of the vehicle.

That is my understanding too, path planning is traditional logic-based programming. Improvements seem to be mainly in three areas: NN/map integration, NN predictions of driveable space and path planning using the driveable space predictions. No doubt there are continuing improvements in object recognition (and placement in 3D), object intention (is the car to the front-right going to turn left, is this dog walker going to cross the road) and NN situation "understanding" as well.

 

[Unpilot]

Thats some robust selling right there.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Order book as of 6:46 AM PDT.

 

[EV forever]

Didn’t realize MMD was still a thing! In the red now.

 

[ZsoZso]

The lack of batteries is the biggest thing holding back widespread production and sale of EVs.
If these companies could magically spin up a ton of battery production they'd do so.
Evidence so far is they can't.
...
So do you believe all other battery producers will scale/ramp as fast or faster than Tesla by 2030?

As I said already, others need to scale slower, about 1/3 the speed of Tesla to arrive to 50% cell production, see:
World Battery Production

You should not mistake Giga-Nevada pack output to battery cell production. There is a lot of cells from 3rd parties getting into those packs there, including all the Panasonic 18650 cells made in Japan.

And if you think nobody else is building new cell plants, then you need to meet my friend Google, in just a few seconds he threw these URLs at me:

How Will LG Chem Scale Up Its EV Battery Production As Tesla Explodes Onto Scene?

Lithium battery makers plan new round of plant projects

LG Chem Acquires New Facility For More Battery Production In Poland

China's CATL battery factory plan for Germany is commercial decision: Germany

CATL Plans Massive Increase In European Battery Production

Top Battery Makers in Talks Over $20 Billion Indonesia EV Plans - BNN Bloomberg

China CATL plans 2020 battery factory that is almost as big as Tesla Gigafactory | NextBigFuture.com

 

[woodisgood]

Whole market selling off. Any news?

 

[BornToFly]

Financially, that is correct. But they now have to provide fuel cells to NKLA, and unless I missed some news flash, they have a lot of R&D to complete in order to do that. It's not an off-the-shelf component that they have ready to sell right now. That R&D will be a significant expense for GM.

Maybe Toyota will help them out. They probably have a few unsold Marais they can use for parts....

 

[euro2012]

I don’t see a whole market sell off. This is likely a combination of MMD and people getting antsy about the announcement from the SP after hours today. There are plenty of people likely taking profits today. I am not one of them.

 

[Robocop]

I don’t see a whole market sell off. This is likely a combination of MMD and people getting antsy about the announcement from the SP after hours today. There are plenty of people likely taking profits today. I am not one of them.

I made some bets at the top this morning, so not surprised at the drop! But yes, the S&P announcement and uncertainty must be a big factor for many trades today.

 

[Knightshade]

As I said already, others need to scale slower, about 1/3 the speed of Tesla to arrive to 50% cell production, see:
World Battery Production

Uh... no.


Om battery day Tesla told us they are targeting 3000 GWh for 2030 BY THEMSELVES.

And a similar amount would need to happen from the rest of the industry to hit 50% market share of EVs.

Your source tells us China through 2028 hopes to build up to 564 GWh and has the vast majority of planned future plants (88 out of 115).

So the rest of the world would need to scale faster than Tesla to hit that 3000 Gwh by 2030 per your own source on this.

Even if we pretend the minority of new non-china plants (27 out of 115) somehow MATCH output of all those 88 china plants, you're only at just over 1100 GWh.

A bit short of the 3000 needed to match Tesla.

You should not mistake Giga-Nevada pack output to battery cell production. There is a lot of cells from 3rd parties getting into those packs there, including all the Panasonic 18650 cells made in Japan.

Dude. YOUR source did exactly the thing you just told us not to make the mistake of. Look at your own link and what they list for Tesla/Panasonic output.

Your source is somewhat old at this point- so it's not including cells from LG and CATL going to Tesla either.

Which again are more cells NOT going to anybody else.

And if you think nobody else is building new cell plants, then you need to meet my friend Google, in just a few seconds he threw these URLs at me:

It doesn't seem you actually read them?

The first mentions LG "ramping" to 262 GWh of cell capacity by 2029... less than 1/10th what the entire non-tesla producers need to output (~3000 GwH) by then.

And it mentions LG is ahead of everyone else which is bad bad news for getting those 3000 GWhs by 2030 from your own source


The next 3 links are fairly generic "gonna build stuff" stories without any long term numbers offered at all so basically useless... (for example story 3 mentions a whole 14 GwH of output in the future from a european CATL plant...)

The next link is even less useful, as it's just reporting several companies are "talking" about maybe building plants in Asia- no actual building going on.


The last link is a nearly 3 year old story with no specific production numbers about a factory that hasn't even been designed or built yet... just they're raising money for it.


Maybe read your own sources next time to check if they actually support your argument?

Financially, that is correct. But they now have to provide fuel cells to NKLA, and unless I missed some news flash, they have a lot of R&D to complete in order to do that. It's not an off-the-shelf component that they have ready to sell right now. That R&D will be a significant expense for GM.

Not if they get to bill Nikola for doing so.

That was part of the original deal too- NKLA would pay GM for development work but GM got to keep all the IP produced from it.

Only difference there is now GM only takes cash, not stock, as payment.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

"Cyber Monday" Sale on TSLA today only!
(deal ends 11/30/2020)

 

[Chenkers]

The stock price is getting pushed back down but options prices are holding up well due to a jump in IV. I'm seeing IV up to 94% for Dec18 options on IB. IV30 is getting up towards 85-90%, a nice climb from 55% a couple of weeks ago and still a way to go.