Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Oh - I thought the poll was for post split price ?

This probably wouldn't be too far off of many members' current views

 

[mongo]

Would Tesla let LG or Panasonic do 4680's? Thought they would keep that in house. I guess they can't ramp up fast enough to meet demand for years so they'll have to get help somewhere.

It depends on the risk factors/ uncertainty in the new processes:
Lowest risk/ highest cost: existing 2170 tech
Medium risk with space and cost savings: Dry Electrode
High risk: tabless 4680 cells.

In terms of the fastest ramp up, 2170 tabbed cells are the way to go, even though they carry a cost/ performance penalty vs future types.

Until Tesla perfects 4680 DBE in house, I would not expect them to farm out production (and at that point it's mostly just floor space and workers, so machinery production is the limiting factor)

 

[gigawatt1010]

To all the TSLA shorts...

 

[Mike Smith]

TSLA +4.3%

All-time closing high

Hi-close Silver!

 

[Tslynk67]

To all the TSLA shorts...

View attachment 614216

No sign of mine and not a lot receiving from the Twitter-crowd either, so maybe this squeeze is scheduled to last longer than we imagine!

 

[Cherry Wine]

The issue of a Fremont factory closure for COVID can now likely be put to rest. Governor Newsom has announced a "regional stay-at-home" plan, specifically citing sectors that would close, and would remain open, if a region reaches the trigger threshold. Sectors that would stay open include "critical infrastructure," under which Tesla should qualify.

Furthermore, sectors that would close include: bars, wineries, personal services, and hair salons / barbershops. I don't believe the text of the order is available online yet, but I am hoping to see a clearly enumerated list of businesses that would close so that the question of whether or not Tesla is "critical infrastructure" becomes immaterial.

Article here: Newsom will apply regional stay-home orders in California based on hospital capacity

 

[kengchang]

It depends on the risk factors/ uncertainty in the new processes:
Lowest risk/ highest cost: existing 2170 tech
Medium risk with space and cost savings: Dry Electrode
High risk: tabless 4680 cells.

In terms of the fastest ramp up, 2170 tabbed cells are the way to go, even though they carry a cost/ performance penalty vs future types.

Until Tesla perfects 4680 DBE in house, I would not expect them to farm out production (and at that point it's mostly just floor space and workers, so machinery production is the limiting factor)

IMO tabless 4680 is easier than dry electrode. Tesla just need to license out the machine to LG/Panasonic to do tabless and still go through wet electrode process.

 

[GOVA]

Elon is in Poland?

Speculation:
LG Chem battery plant and VW EV plant nearby.
What is he planning?

Source?

I said it sometime ago... Poland has one of the best programmers in the world. This might be it.
Also, Polish Prime Minister had talked to Elon sometime ago as he wants to bring US business to Poland.

 

[Cobos]

Has anybody mentioned the insanity of luninar:
Luminar going public makes 25-year-old Austin Russell one of world's first, and youngest, self-driving billionaires
Apparently the idea of lidar is exciting and new and worth billions. Investors have done so much in depth research that it looks like most of them today bought entirely the wrong stock, with a similar name...
Yahoo is now a part of Verizon Media

A bit of googling shows luminar has been around since 2012... and still lidar can not compete with the current non-lidar tesla autopilot. Thats a looong time to be wrong... and yet people have said this company could be worth half a trillion. insane.

Looking at that article the founder of Luminar says for full self driving you need lidar. He's running a lidar company so no big surprise there, and Waymo and lots of others say the same.. BUT
My gen 1 Model S has a fully autonomous driving system. It uses only 2 cameralike sensors and seems to be pretty proficient at driving. Unprotected left turns, pedastrians, cyclist and e-scooters is all handled in stride. Yes in case you hadn't figured it out, it's me.

So how can someone that is a sciene wizz with a straight face say it's impossible to have a self driving car without lidar? You can say that the computer can't do as much with 2 cameras as a human brain can and need additional sensors but technically it should be a solvable problem.

I'm sorry for the slightly OT but this just irks me. And of course does show that Tesla's approach should be possible, lots of pretty stupid humans manages to drive themselves around every day.

 

[Beltsbear]

Would Tesla let LG or Panasonic do 4680's? Thought they would keep that in house. I guess they can't ramp up fast enough to meet demand for years so they'll have to get help somewhere.

Absolutely. Tesla will probably be wanting to buy any cells it can get that meet specifications.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I'm sorry for the slightly OT but this just irks me. And of course does show that Tesla's approach should be possible, lots of pretty stupid humans manages to drive themselves around every day.

People in the media have swallowed the media-spin nonsense that this 'genius' memorized the periodic table at age 2. Not sure how that helps him get the price of lidar lower than a camera (spoiler: it will not), but that the fact that he is young, that he has this charming made up story about being a child prodigy, and the fact that elon musk disagrees with him apparently lets him ride that hype train to nonsensically becoming a billionaire based on... wishful thinking?

I thought nkla was a joke stock until I read about this one. Will be even worse when the muppets who accidentally bought luminar media group stock by mistake sell it and buy the 'right' one. He should sell out immediately and retire.

 

[Curt Renz]

Dirty Tesla - today:

 

[Prunesquallor]

OT

The Monolith is on Twitter.

 

[Prunesquallor]

To all the TSLA shorts...

View attachment 614216

That box is probably worth more than the shorts.

 

[Nocturnal]

Remember folks, the longer you wind up the spring...

 

[MC3OZ]

I've not seen a Gigafactory Texas posted for a few days. This one from last night shows rapid progress with the footings and stamping machine foundations in the big pit, which is already being filled in around the foundations. The concrete pillars south of the big pit are starting to get a roof. Steelwork is still quite slow, two lots of three squares have been added on both floors over the last day.

I'm still optimistic about TF Austin having something substantial built by the end of the year.

Let's call the lots of three squares a rectangle... yesterday 2 crews with a crane each 1 rectangle each.

I hope by the 10th the big pit itself (not the concrete construction) is complete, that frees up 3-4 cranes, 2 cranes probably needed for concrete construction for most of December.

if some of the smaller cranes can do roof assembly they can use 4 yellow and 2 black cranes for steel construction, that is stepping up from 2 crews to 6 crews - from the 20th to the 31st, 20 working days with Christmas fay off. 20 x 6 = 120 more rectangles, effectively 15X what they have built already.

The are putting the steel for the roof on the roof as they go, so at some point in time roofing teams can start and work in parallel, they don't need a crane (most of the time).

Walls are still an open question, but if only the outer walls are concrete, they may be able to use smaller cranes and lifts for lightweight internal walls.

So overall I think a lot of steel frame up by December 31st, probably up to 50% of it with a roof, and minimal walls, All on the optimistic assumption that they have this plan and it goes well from here.

 

[Intl Professor]

Hi-close Silver!

My children used to call the hero "the long ranger." Fitting.

 

[jerry33]

My children used to call the hero "the long ranger." Fitting.

The way it's pronounced makes it really hard to distinguish if you haven't learned to read yet.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I don't think that's it. Why would GS think that one brokerage analysts price target is going to discourage overshooting that price target (when Tesla regularly blows through analyst price targets from other brokerages). Did you mean this gives GS the ability to lower their price target as TSLA approaches it? That doesn't seem like it would work much better.

A better explanation is simply that GS and friends are now positioned to benefit from a rising TSLA share price.

Yes @StealthP3D, along those lines.

I was thinking of it from the perspective that - it gives their customers; & GS themselves the "social license" to buy up to $780, (perhaps they have a bunch of derivatives positioned around this # ?) - but not too far beyond that #.

There are clients of theirs that rely heavily on what the talking heads at GS say - so that will help them exert whatever influence they can directly or indirectly to keep the SP around this $780 range.

Just some musings...time will tell.

 

[mongo]

I'm still optimistic about TF Austin having something substantial built by the end of the year.

Let's call the lots of three squares a rectangle... yesterday 2 crews with a crane each 1 rectangle each.

I hope by the 10th the big pit itself (not the concrete construction) is complete, that frees up 3-4 cranes, 2 cranes probably needed for concrete construction for most of December.

if some of the smaller cranes can do roof assembly they can use 4 yellow and 2 black cranes for steel construction, that is stepping up from 2 crews to 6 crews - from the 20th to the 31st, 20 working days with Christmas fay off. 20 x 6 = 120 more rectangles, effectively 15X what they have built already.

The are putting the steel for the roof on the roof as they go, so at some point in time roofing teams can start and work in parallel, they don't need a crane (most of the time).

Walls are still an open question, but if only the outer walls are concrete, they may be able to use smaller cranes and lifts for lightweight internal walls.

So overall I think a lot of steel frame up by December 31st, probably up to 50% of it with a roof, and minimal walls, All on the optimistic assumption that they have this plan and it goes well from here.

Yeah, the structure should go fast because the more perimeter it has, the more crews can be adding to it simultaneously. The core will be the slowest.
.