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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Troy offers his latest forecast for 2021.

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1334718363944292353

To summarize:
Fremont: 398K
Shanghai: 432K
Berlin: 27K
Austin: 10K
Grand Total: 867K

My 2 cents:
Fremont and Shanghai look about right, though his Model Y numbers might be on the low side. If 550K in Shanghai happens as rumored, then we are looking at 1M grand total.

I believe his numbers for Berlin and Austin are way too low, but everything hinges on how quickly DBE is scaled up. IMO, the fact construction on both sites proceeds at such a rapid pace bodes well for how quickly they will ramp. Troy is being very conservative with only 37K (27K in Q4 alone) between them. It could end up being 3-4x that.

It looks to me that Troy's production estimates are rather low for next year.

Production capacity is 590k at Fremont at end Q3, multiply by 0.85 to get actual production this is about 500k, but the Model Y is still ramping up so I would expect a few more than 500k from Fremont. Shanghai looks about right maybe a bit high, production capacity at end of next year is supposed to be 550k, 85% of that is 467k, but the total for next year will be lower as they are ramping up.

If Berlin are ramping up to 500k at end 2022 starting mid 2021 a very rough estimate would be capacity of 150k at end of 2021 and production of 25% of that capacity so maybe 40k. Austin is about one quarter behind Berlin but the factory is larger so a guess of 20k.

To summarize my guestimate:
Fremont: 500k
Shanghai: 400k
Berlin: 40k
Austin: 20k
Grand Total: 960k
 
Fun Fact: Since the day of the TSLA stock dividend announcement (August 11), we are up +116% in 116 days.

Coincidence? ;)

Cheers!

Remember all the times we discussed how awesome it'd be if the stock just gained less than 1%/day for an extended period?

Turns out, we were right. (+116% in 116 days corresponds to 0.667% rise daily for the period.)
 
It looks to me that Troy's production estimates are rather low for next year.

Production capacity is 590k at Fremont at end Q3, multiply by 0.85 to get actual production this is about 500k, but the Model Y is still ramping up so I would expect a few more than 500k from Fremont. Shanghai looks about right maybe a bit high, production capacity at end of next year is supposed to be 550k, 85% of that is 467k, but the total for next year will be lower as they are ramping up.

If Berlin are ramping up to 500k at end 2022 starting mid 2021 a very rough estimate would be capacity of 150k at end of 2021 and production of 25% of that capacity so maybe 40k. Austin is about one quarter behind Berlin but the factory is larger so a guess of 20k.

To summarize my guestimate:
Fremont: 500k
Shanghai: 400k
Berlin: 40k
Austin: 20k
Grand Total: 960k
I have a feeling that Shanghai production in Nov-Dec will be higher than a lot of analysts expected and estimates will need to be upped. With higher scale and LFP I expect prices will come down, then they will add new markets in Singapore, Thailand and maybe even Indonesia as a part of a factory deal. Thus I think Shanghai will max out Model 3 all of 2021. I expect Y to ramp much faster than 3 as it shares many parts and they now have skilled workers they can shift around and logistics up and running in China.

Would not be surprised it it ends up being
Fremont: 500k
Shanghai: 450k
Berlin: 40k
Austin: 10k
Grand Total: 1M
 
Hi folks,

Just so you know the level of competetive progress that GM has made in its 30 year history of EV prototypes:

THIRTY YEARS OF GM PROGRESS:

1992 GM Ultralite1:

View attachment 614356

2022 GMC Hummer EV:

View attachment 614357

Albeit, that's "virtual" progress because the 1992 prototype was real (made from carbon fiber by Scaled Composites in Mojave, California), whereas the 2022 prototype is a computer rendering (made from photons in Wallyworld, Wakanda).

The End can't come soon enough. :p

Cheers!
Both 1992 GM Ultralite 1 and 2022 GMC Hummer EV are non-functioning prototypes (so far). The Nikola Badger pick-up only made it so far as a computer rendering.
 
No, this wasn't Stallone. Stallone was in Judge Dredd, this remake was done by Karl Urban. It's one of my favorite films, but I've no idea how it would pertain to Tesla at all. Maybe Tesla defeats all odds against it to triumph in the end?

For me it was "Judgement Is Coming" on the movie poster that rang true as the market is coming to know Tesla and are finally judging it for all it is and will become.

Why my search turned it up, I have no idea.
 
Since S+P inclusion announcement, TSLA is up approx. 45% due to front runners. IMHO I believe Elon's sledgehammer soufflé letter was an attempt to temper advancement of the share price until such time as Tesla is added to the index. To smooth out the share price rise. Knowing that S&P tracking funds must purchase +-$140B in Tesla between December 14th and December 21st (December 28th @Artful Dodger) TSLA should reach minimum $700 by index inclusion.
Not 24 hours later Goldman Hacks issues a $760 target, inciting further run up prior to the commencement of funds that are required or expected to puchase Tesla due to the S&P inclusion. Therefore I expect the run-up will now be much higer than $700, however there is greater chance of a more significant drop immediately after inclusion.
Long term, no issues whatsoever.
 
08:00 a.m. Whistle: Fri, 04 Dec 2020

TSLA share price: $595.26 +1.88 +0.32%

NASDAQ Volume 08:00 AM: 372,721 (Moderate)

TSLA.2020-12-04.08-00.png


Cheers!
 
Since S+P inclusion announcement, TSLA is up approx. 45% due to front runners. IMHO I believe Elon's sledgehammer soufflé letter was an attempt to temper advancement of the share price until such time as Tesla is added to the index. To smooth out the share price rise. Knowing that S&P tracking funds must purchase +-$140B in Tesla between December 14th and December 21st (December 28th @Artful Dodger) TSLA should reach minimum $700 by index inclusion.
Not 24 hours later Goldman Hacks issues a $760 target, inciting further run up prior to the commencement of funds that are required or expected to puchase Tesla due to the S&P inclusion. Therefore I expect the run-up will now be much higer than $700, however there is greater chance of a more significant drop immediately after inclusion.
Long term, no issues whatsoever.
Isn’t it Emmet Peppers that said in an interview with Dave Lee on investing that he took for 3M in contracts for calls of TSLA reaching $700?he agrees with you
 
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Since S+P inclusion announcement, TSLA is up approx. 45% due to front runners. IMHO I believe Elon's sledgehammer soufflé letter was an attempt to temper advancement of the share price until such time as Tesla is added to the index. To smooth out the share price rise. Knowing that S&P tracking funds must purchase +-$140B in Tesla between December 14th and December 21st (December 28th @Artful Dodger) TSLA should reach minimum $700 by index inclusion.
Not 24 hours later Goldman Hacks issues a $760 target, inciting further run up prior to the commencement of funds that are required or expected to puchase Tesla due to the S&P inclusion. Therefore I expect the run-up will now be much higer than $700, however there is greater chance of a more significant drop immediately after inclusion.
Long term, no issues whatsoever.
Hedge funds used to get paid by fooling investors into volunteering fees in the hopes that hedge funds could reliably beat the wider market by a greater amount than those fees. Now that's been completely disproven, they're making money by manufacturing volatility. Ideally the SEC would be all over these shenanigans. Clearly that's not happening.

Goldman's role in this inclusion is an interesting one. As a guy looking to sell CC's at an artificial peak, I hope they hold options through the true inclusion buying window and not just mid-December :)
 
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Looking at premarket, I predict today will be a boring day for TSLA, low volume and capped within 590 to 595 range. Hope I’m wrong and we break 600, but next week is more likely for that to happen.

My expectation is that it'll struggle to get to $600 and probably get dragged down to kill options. There's so many $600 calls that market makers would probably prefer to make them expire worthless. My guess would be in a trading range of $585-$600 with no fundamental news for today.
 
Hi folks,

Just so you know the level of competetive progress that GM has made in its 30 year history of EV prototypes:

THIRTY YEARS OF GM PROGRESS:

1992 GM Ultralite1:

View attachment 614356

2022 GMC Hummer EV:

View attachment 614357

Albeit, that's "virtual" progress because the 1992 prototype was real (made from carbon fiber by Scaled Composites in Mojave, California), whereas the 2022 prototype is a computer rendering (made from photons in Wallyworld, Wakanda).

The End can't come soon enough. :p

Cheers!



30 years?

Hell, how can you forget their 1956 video showing self driving cars?