Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

OT - mining and anode material:

I am watching this from "now you know" wondering about whether to get into graphite miners.

I keep hearing that Tesla will be using a graphite anode loaded with an increasing amount of Silicon (up to 30% or so). If that is correct, maybe these miners are worth looking into.

However, I thought that Tesla were not going to use graphite at all.

Slides 41 to 44 here:
Plus 1:05 here:

Thoughts?

We don't know, but a literal reading of battery day is silicon with no graphite or a lot less graphite.

I've been thinking for somsometime that people are underestimating the importance of the silicon anode, specifically in terms of higher energy density and faster charging.

The focus on costs at Battery Day meant Tesla didn't need to detail specs and performance.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I can appreciate your skepticism. However:

1. Tesla is outselling everyone in every market except the EU...and I believe the US and Chinese market are FAR, FAR more important.

2. The reason Tesla is investing in GFs, and still having to source batteries from other companies, is literally due to scarcity of batteries. It's also the same reason everyone other than Tesla is producing compliance numbers of BEVs.

SSBs are a buzzword. Tesla's battery day was all about reducing costs...there's a reason SSB announcements are coming without firm timelines or costs.

3. I don't honestly know what this has to do with anything, I don't know what panel gaps and paint has to do with core battery tech.

After #3 I feel llike you're ignoring all of the current ICEV manufacturers...how exactly do you explain that we have more than one ICEV manufacturer...if none have an advantage over the other?

Finally, Tesla is not just an automotive manufacturer...and, honestly, I question your reasoning ability.

What is an “Engineer by trade”?

 

[MaChiMiB]

Germany is starting a strong lockdown from next Wednesday until minimum January 10th.
It's likely that car dealers have to close. (They had to close back in March, but were allowed to open sooner than other businesses).

Home-delivery could still be legal.It's also possible that Tesla could shift cars to other countries.

On Monday or Tuesday the laws get approved by the different state parliaments (16). Maybe there are different restrictions for car dealers by state.

 

[joh01652]

This S/X production line shutdown is very exciting news for me. I’ve been planning to finally replace my 2016 Model X with the current model, and can’t wait to see what improvements are in store for Model X. Hopefully a big jump in range from the 4680 cells, and dare I say interior refresh?

I’m not counting on plaid coming to Model X and would not spent that kind of money just to get faster performance. Model X is not made for racing or track anyway, but it remains in my opinion the best car Tesla ever made.

Stand-out feature to me is the automatic door operation—it’s something I enjoy every single day when picking up hot drinks from the coffee shop, one in each hand. Magically the Model X driver-side door opens as it senses I’m approaching. While everyone else fuddling with keys and placing their coffees on the roof—these are the kind of features that make the product so much better and enjoyable.

Is there any chatter/rumors that the X will come with folding rear seats ever, like the 3, S and Y? I might splurge on an X in the future if I could car camp in it...

 

[OrthoSurg]

A lot of us are pondering what next week will bring. HODL'ers for the show, short term traders for the gains.

Many people here and on other social media are convinced we will see a (sharp) rise. And there are also a lot of people who are convinced it will be followed by a (temporary) drop. The social media are full of this scenario. As a result a lot of speculators, short term traders and even stockholders who would like to take some gains off the table are on edge. They are afraid of missing the top and of getting caught up in a crash. That's probably one of the explanations for last week's drop (the other one being 8 million new shares dumped in the market in one day).

The most important question is ofcourse: will there be enough supply to fulfill the demand for 130 millions shares by index funds and other tracking funds? Have speculators hoarded enough shares to flip them? If they haven't, we will see a rise until enough investors are prepared to sell.

If the speculators bought enough shares and there is no disbalance between demand and supply, the second big question becomes: at what price are they willing to part with those shares? And at what price will other short term traders try to lock in their gains, mostly on short term call options?

Everyone will have their own price target for locking in the speculative gains. How much will be enough? It's unlikely they will settle for 600 or 650 (they could have sold at that price already, and the more nervous ones probably already did). So they would look for a higher price. But how much higher? 670? 700? 750? Even more? And what happens if the price doesn't rise or not much? Will they head for the exits? Timing the height and date of the top is the million dollar question for traders. It will be a case of who blinks first.

I read a tweet from Gary Black showing that over 70% of the shares were bought by indexers on the last day for the AAPL S&P500 inclusion. I am wondering if the speculators will wait for the last hour on Friday to let them go or will sell as soon as they see a dent in the share price. It will be a heart attack week for them.

In September, TSLA had also a sharp rise when they announced 4th straight quarter profitability and when the S&P committee snobbed TSLA, there was a 20% drop in the stock price. I am wondering who was selling at that point: Speculators without the compensatory buying of indexers? Or some hedge funds that bought in anticipation of inclusion that sold because they would not need to acquire any shares? There will be a selling dynamic at play this week, the only unknown is about a possible imbalance, if yes, on which side?

 

[ThisStockGood]

Is there any chatter/rumors that the X will come with folding rear seats ever, like the 3, S and Y? I might splurge on an X in the future if I could car camp in it...

Well - the 5 seater and 7 seater versions of the X already has folding rear seats..?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I'm willing to give Lora the benefit of the doubt on this one. Maybe she's not ignoring the obvious - I know it seems unfathomable, but maybe she's just too stupid to see the obvious.

I wouldn't call her stupid, just naïve and easily manipulated. She drank the Jim Chanos Kool-aid and just can't get past it. I see her as a little girl that has believed everything she was told by her mentor/daddy and just can't concieve that the reality is anything different. Certainly not the type of person to be in her profession for sure.

Dan

 

[joh01652]

Well - the 5 seater and 7 seater versions of the X already has folding rear seats..?

Sorry, I'm wrong, didn't know there was a five-seater X. I only say a seven-seater once and thought, "I can't sleep in that."

An X just might be in my future after all!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I wonder if Tesla has any casting machines available in Fremont to allocate to S&X. From @gabeincal 's videos there are only two and I doubt one would be enough to support MY production.

Does anyone know the unit capacity of the casting machines, or whether the forms can be switched for different models in a reasonable period of time?

I don’t know how many machines, but I know Model Y is going from a two piece rear casting to a one piece. That makes me think a bigger casting machine is being used for the Y and maybe the smaller one is now avaible for the S&X.

On the Third Row interview Elon says “For the Model S and X we have castings on the corner nodes—the main load-bearing portions of the car are high-pressure die-cast aluminum. They’re quite complex. But the thing that really drives me crazy about those is that they require a heat treat afterwards. So, when you heat-treat it, then you get warping and then it’s a big pain in the butt [and] the bigger the part is and the more complex the shape is, the more warping you’re going to get. So, it’s very important in doing this that we developed an alloy…that is sufficiently strong and has good elongation. Especially important for elongation in a crash event, without requiring a damn heat treat and turning the thing into a pretzel.”

 

[EVMeister]

Sorry, I'm wrong, didn't know there was a five-seater X. I only say a seven-seater once and thought, "I can't sleep in that."

An X just might be in my future after all!

Weekend OT. In the Model X, you can do this properly.

 

[cusetownusa]

MEANWHILE, BACK IN REALITY...

GM is the first manufacturer to completely ditch traditional engines

2017 story about GM going "all electric"

Volkswagen Will Be The Biggest Electric-Car Maker In 2018, It Says

2013 story where VW says they will be the biggest EV maker in the world by 2018


Not to mention in 2017 a bunch of other manufacturers were not just "considering" EVs- they were making and selling EVs

Problem was- they almost universally sucked.

An incomplete list of 2017 EVs you could have bought (or tried to- since there were relatively few of any of these actually sold)

Fiat had the 500e... with its 84 miles of range for $33,000 MSRP
Nissan has the leaf, then 107 miles of range for $30,680 MSRP
BMW had the i3, 81-114 miles of range for $42,400 MSRP
Ford had the focus electric, 115 miles for $29,120
Hyundai the Ioniq, 124 miles of range for $29,500
Volkswagen the e-golf, 125 miles of range for $28,995
Chevy had the bolt, with 236 miles of range for $36,620
Kia the Soul EV- 93 miles of range for $32,250
Mercedes had the B250e- with 84 miles of range for $39,900.

But yeah nobody else was "even considering" EVs...

And of course it's the year Teslas 300+ mile Model 3 launched to joint it's S and X models.




Like how GM did in 2017? How's that worked out so far?



Well... a model.... the range is terrible, the price is laughable, and they hilariously use the word "turbo" for one of the models despite it not having an actual turbo. But yes they did release one. It's not really "competition" for anything except maybe the gas version of a Porsche though.




Not really though.

This is a pretty classic technique for the FUDsters- they know Tesla delivers to geos differentially so they move around where sales are lower one month ignoring where they're higher another month.

This move doubles down on that since the ID.3 was delayed for so long what you're seeing right now is all the pre-orders finally being delivered- not new demand for the car.

Tesla sold almost no cars in Europe in October because they physically didn't have hardly any there to sell. Meanwhile in September they sold 18,877 of them.


In fact Tesla sold almost the same number of cars in the EU in just September as VW sold ID.3s in September AND October combined.

If you add the tiny # of cars Tesla did sell in October they outsold the ID.3 over those 2 months.

It's only when you get into cherry picked nonsense like "these 17 specific days in November, specifically in Norway" that Teslas sales look bad.





Yes. Nearly 3 years ago.

Source for that:

Ford is throwing $11 billion at its electric car problem

The story mentions this is after they had ALREADY announced back in 2015 they'd be spending 4.5 billion on EVs and have 13 different electric vehicles on the road by 20202.

How'd that turn out again?

Ford, like all the legacy makers, "announces" lots of things that never happen.

Competition by press release isn't a viable long term strategy though.






Well, you're half right.

Ford is releasing the Mach E.

Well, 50,000 of them... most going to Europe.

Why so few?

They can't get any more batteries than that.

it's almost like there's more than just a cathode and anode or something.

And of course Ford doesn't make the Hummer, electric or otherwise. GM does- and they're not releasing one this year.

The six-figure-price launch edition will be out in late 2021. The only slightly less hilariously overpriced "cheaper" versions will come sometime in the 2022-2024 timeframe.

I don’t have much to add as you covered a lot.

The one thing I have noticed is that every grand EV plan announcement always seems to have a date that is 5 years out in the future. Is 5 years the magical amount of time when you realize you are screwed and you want to keep your shareholders believing you have a chance until you have cashed out and it’ becomes the next CEOs problem?

 

[Tslynk67]

Poor Gordo, 77 cars delivered so far today in Norway, which is crazy for a Sunday

 

[brantse]

In light of the recent opinions from Michael Burry, I decided to re-watch The Big Short. It feels much different watching this movie again years later, but oddly familiar to what many of us are currently experiencing. The wonderful thing for us is that we are on the optomistic side that is looking to improve the world, as opposed to the side that was forced to root for bankruptcy and the financial ruins of the American public.

Regarding Michael Burry, he's clearly a very, very intelligent man and I'm not going to offer an opinion on him in either direction.

 

[AndyH]

Volvo is a car company from Sweden owned currently by Geely from CHINA. Volvo has been around since the early 1900s. Some of their claim to fame comes from the invention of the two band seatbelt. Known as the safest car on the road for decades. Red blocks and white blocks bulletproof engines. My favorite thing about volvos is their headrest designs. Volvos headrest designer I believe worked for Teslas interior department. Volvo used to manufacture great 5 cylinder cars but now only makes 4 cylinder cars (and less). Volvo is a great company who makes great autos. Volvo was also making some pretty ground breaking engines around 2015. I consider them some of the last great inventions in regards to ICE engines. 3 cylinders. Or supercharged engines that have twin turbos also. 3 boosts.
The headrests though.

my fav models are p1800s from early 60s
The Amazon is amazing model

edit: China not Japan

OT:
Volvo has previously used the nomenclature b for petrol(bensin in swedish) and d for diesel engines. But since diesels don't sell they've now cleverly renamed them to b. They will no doubt soon bring out the electric e too, fully diesel powered of course

This isn't anything new for Volvo. A couple of years ago they called diesels drivE. It sounded electric but in reality it was just dirty.

To be fair to Volvo they at least have the most ambitious electrification plan for a traditional car maker since they hope to sell 50% full EVs by 2025.

 

[2daMoon]

Looking at the fun on the horizon here's how it seems to me.

• Up till now there has not been enough HODLers willing to let go to offer the Shorts the support they expected when they (and the MMs) try to cause a big move, right? Hence their losses this year setting Guiness Book level records, ha ha.

• Opportunists have bought since the S&P announcement to take advantage of gains when the various "must" and "probably will" institutions will be buying to meet their contracted obligations.

• There will be a lot of action through the 24th, which, IIRC, is the cutoff for the "must buy" players.

• Further action will continue as the "probably wills" add stock to balance out their holdings in order to meet their goals.

• Credit rating "Investment Grade" upgrade is also very likely with S&P inclusion, profits, growth, debt reduction, and money in the bank to support it. Setting TSLA up to be purchased by those firms whose choices are limited based upon that rating.

This leads to (what seems to me as) the good part.

Once all of that S&P jiggery-pokery is done (and potential credit upgrade), everyone who "must" or "probably will" buy to meet their contractual obligations will essentially be joining the HODL contingent. Yay!

Depending upon what percentage of stockholders make up the HODL and quasi-HODL ranks after this event it will reduce the number of shares available to swing hither and tither, damping the volatility to a degree. Perhaps to a significant degree.

If so, the usual players (Shorts, MMs, etc.) ability to cause a big a move in the SP is reduced by the greater number of "we won't sell" stockholders, when compared to the effects of this sort of trading prior to S&P inclusion.

Does it seem reasonable to expect a smoothing effect on the SP upward trajectory going forward?

 

[CLK350]

Volvo is a car company from Sweden owned currently by Geely from CHINA. Volvo has been around since the early 1900s. Some of their claim to fame comes from the invention of the two band seatbelt. Known as the safest car on the road for decades. Red blocks and white blocks bulletproof engines. My favorite thing about volvos is their headrest designs. Volvos headrest designer I believe worked for Teslas interior department. Volvo used to manufacture great 5 cylinder cars but now only makes 4 cylinder cars (and less). Volvo is a great company who makes great autos. Volvo was also making some pretty ground breaking engines around 2015. I consider them some of the last great inventions in regards to ICE engines. 3 cylinders. Or supercharged engines that have twin turbos also. 3 boosts.
The headrests though.

my fav models are p1800s from early 60s
The Amazon is amazing model

edit: China not Japan

All this may be true of the 60's and 70's Volvo, but their recent past is more checkered, what with their various joint ventures and probably MBA bean counters.

[OT] TLDR; specific detailed stats by model car/ year are available now, including Volvo - no Tesla ratings available yet; and how buying my topnotch used '08 Mercedes CLK350 mid 2018 made me an expert in cars, used and new, as well as EV cars. Which paid for my M Benz *and* a few TESLA s (if I wanted).


-------
You can't rely on Consumer Reports really for car ratings as they do not check cars beyond a few years of age. However.. one used car dealer/ auction expert (Steven Lang) has compiled statistics for most cars all the way back.
Very useful tidbits, Honda are indeed great re reliability, EXCEPT for a few model years .. Toyota is better .. as for Volvo, see for yourself
http://www.dashboard-light.com/reports/Volvo.html and Subaru is the pits which car guys knew (blown gaskets guaranteed after 80K miles, hard to reach too, sigh - tried to tell my ex not to buy one, but she liked the 4 wheel drive thing, true, it's one of the best and the financing etc. - as far as "..Tesla, no, they don't have enough chargers, and are not really a reputable company, they're not in the S&P 500.." -that was sometime last year .. triple sigh ). In case you wonder why I should care, well we do have a cool son so I'm looking for his interests indirectly ;D


------
The Mercedes CLK350 story: I wasn't really looking for a car at the time, we usually just rented a car, any car for our trips to the country; but when friends of mine mentioned a nice older Benz for sale, I went and took a look. I do like well made gadgets, art, tools, well, anything well done except steaks. Oh and I've always liked Janis Joplin's song

Anyway after test driving the CLK350, examining it and listening to the story (husband bought it for his wife, she used it for a couple years highway driving from her garage to the JFK parking garage where she worked, then car was kept mostly for weekend drives, or special occasions, to keep it in shape). The car had 28,000 miles or so, and I felt it was fine, didn't bother having it checked by a mechanic, trusting my guts - I used to take care of my Honda Prelude way back then, could tell everything was clicking nicely, knew in '08 computers were far simpler and more reliable than the newish current cpu's. Made an offer. Then started worrying a little.

Up until then all cars to me looked and felt the same .. not surprising, my experience was mostly new, well maintained rentals. After a few months of exhaustive research (yes, I can be OCD at times), found out my CLK350 was indeed tops, up to the smallest recall/ defects, and passed the Mercedes multi-point inspection no problem. Replaced the battery that was marginal and that's about all. Oh yes, also found the best mechanic around (fixes Lambos, BMW, even Teslas ... ) very reasonable and honest - after testing a few places (found them because Rich ( top car mechanic, of Rich Rebuild fame who rebuilt his own Teslas and now runs a few independent Tesla shops) went to *them* for help with some issues he couldn't figure.

Having bought the CLK350 mostly because it was a great car at a very reasonable price, I figured I'd sell it after a year or so at some profit. Turns out I found it hard to separate, especially since after looking for a replacement, I stumbled on the Tesla story, of which I was completely unaware of thanks to the FUDster press.

So I bought TSLA in Jan 2019 and then piled in all I could find after the ensuing dip. Not really enough, hah. So that's how the CLK350 paid for itself and a few other toys if I wanted to ..

The cherry on top was when I found out that 2008 was the year Mercedes essentially saved Tesla by giving them a contract for their B series EV's and invested $50M in Tesla.

----

So Elon was right " Don't doubt your vibe "

And my vibe tells me this Dec 14 week will be super volatile, the next will see the SP skyrocket.

 

[Mengy]

I will definitely be looking at trading in for the new model when the stock exceeds $2000 in 2022.

Yeah, I don't think the SP will be as high as $2K in 2022.

If it is then WOW, I'm not sure how I'd react to being that wealthy that quickly, LOL!!!

 

[Unpilot]

Other manufactures weren’t even considering EV’s in 2017...

Now Volvo is committing to electrify all models.. Porsche has released models, Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has announced $11.5B in spending for EVs and is releasing the Mach E and EV Hummer this year.. the list goes on.

You’re right this isn’t 2017!

You can almost make Anton out of that user name....almost.

 

[ZeApelido]

Someone got jokes:

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1338113618638999554

"They have to do body changes in order to make room for the lidar system and the fuel cell."

 

[UncaNed]

Yep. When he said this "The fact is that EVs are very simple.. basically a battery platform with motors. Within 1-1.5 years every car manufacturer will have EVs with similar ranges, performance and capabilities and only differentiated by marketing and aesthetics.."
Well. What can you say to such foolishness?

We should try not to keep feeding the 1 or 2 new trolls who seem to have just popped up with too many serious-sounding rebuttals that almost give them credibility.