Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nurkbonis]

found some more color...View attachment 617451

A few pretty interesting comments from this employee. Makes me think this is the Plaid S launching in Q1 without 4680s. Instead it will have 18650s.

This would align with the previous employee who initially leaked the refresh a few months ago. He said he saw info about the refreshed S before Plaid S was unveiled with the same acceleration, range, etc. So it's very possible the Plaid S is about the be ready for production and 4680s will be used for Cybertruck and semi initially.

 

[SunCatcher]

Warren Buffett wants 90 percent of his wealth to go to this one investment after he's gone

"The Oracle of Omaha even said he’s instructed the trustee in charge of his estate to invest 90 percent of his money into the S&P 500 for his wife after he dies,..."

So, you're saying that Warren Buffett's wealth, and investments will include a pretty big chunk of TSLA?

 

[Criscmt]

Thanks. Is there any way you can summarize the results w/o linking to Google Docs? Screenie perhaps? Just looking for the distribution of estimates (ie: mean, std dev, kurtosis... )

Both Screenie1 and Screenie2 require upgrading my OS unfortunately.
Does csv file work for you? I attached the file to this comment. Apparently file extension .csv is not allowed to be uploaded?
I am not sure if this is intentional. I uploaded the file with .txt extension, please make changes as needed once you download.

Also, here are some stats, ignoring the probabilities/conviction paired with these SP numbers.
Stat | Week of 12/14 | Week of 12/21
Mean | 762.14 | 847.176
Median | 755 | 800
STDEV | 74.21 | 159.5452763
KURT | 1.09206608 | 1.971965825

 

[Singuy]

About the S&p, since it's the most popular index tracked by retirement funds, are we expecting constant buying pressure on a biweekly basis per paydays from most employers?

 

[dc_h]

No. Tesla will be a volatile stock as long as they are innovating rapidly and expanding production at ever increasing rates.

I've learned it's best to embrace volatility rather than dread it. It's a little like Pavlov's classical conditioning drooling response that a dog has to the anticipation of tasty food. My most profitable holdings (by far) have always been my most volatile holdings. And I like to drool so I view a sharp drop as just the precursor to my next big opportunity to drool. Those who try to maximize the drooling by selling high and trying to buy back at a lower price inevitably miss out on some of the best drooling!

Honestly, big drops were once gut-wrenching affairs. Now I actually like them (assuming they are not drops caused by actual fundamental negatives). It's a conditioned response. I'm more troubled by high tops because they signal the best drooling opportunities are coming to a (temporary) close. I'm being serious here.

I believe S&P inclusion will smooth volatility. A broader holding base should and tying significant shares to a base that can’t buy or sell would seem to reduce volatility. I could be wrong though, I’m sure there’s some detailed math that could document the impact.

 

[Jack6591]

I believe S&P inclusion will smooth volatility. A broader holding base should and tying significant shares to a base that can’t buy or sell would seem to reduce volatility. I could be wrong though, I’m sure there’s some detailed math that could document the impact.

S&P inclusion would seem to add a measure of consistency to the recipe. Yet every time I drive onto a Southern California freeway, I find myself vying with thousands upon thousands of cars for a spot on the thoroughfare. A river of cars, of money, flowing directly to the fossil fuel industry.

The fossil fuel industry will not go quietly into the night, nor yet will TSLA volatility wane...

 

[OrthoSurg]

"The Oracle of Omaha even said he’s instructed the trustee in charge of his estate to invest 90 percent of his money into the S&P 500 for his wife after he dies,..."

So, you're saying that Warren Buffett's wealth, and investments will include a pretty big chunk of TSLA?

Google Image Result for https://i0.wp.com/vintagevalueinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/warren-buffett-net-worth-over-time.jpg?resize=637%2C635&ssl=1

Another 1B plowed into TSLA

 

[OrthoSurg]

@PKOttawa found an investment you might prefer:

Meet The Fiskers, The Billionaire Power Couple Taking On Tesla

Outsourcing production by Magna.
NKLA should do the same thing, oh wait yeah they asked GM

 

[Criscmt]

It appears that Citadel does not own a significant amount of shares anymore. I checked @FrankSG ’s research and Q3 holders. I did not see Citadel’s name in that list. So maybe not a big deal. Either the market already has a plan for the inclusion or the folks in this forum are so much in tune with TSLA that we think this whole supply demand scenario is too good to be true.

So much of Tesla stock price movement is tied to options trading. The stock usually peaks when IV is at elevated levels. While the overall IV has stayed at decent levels, short term IV is definitely very high. I realize a vast majority of us have already placed short term bets but I would be very careful about getting in now. The risk/reward is not so great. That said this is a historical event and you don’t want to have any regrets. Just be prepared to lose it all. I still like our odds.

Firstly, I must say my knowledge of options market and delta hedging is very limited.
This sounds too easy to abuse, with conflict of interest, and there might be some laws that prevent such a thing happening?
THEY unlike general shareholders are allowed to sell calls with much less number of shares than a general shareholder?
In other words, they get certain privilege. That they are allowed to pull off something along the lines of your concern seems too prone to abuse.
If THEY were to be able to pull this off what's stopping them to repeat and rinse this to highest level of leverage they can get to irrespective of such (S&P) events?

@generalenthu @FrankSG Can you please share any information you have here?

 

[Mike Smith]

Note the wording in the leaked email:

"We would like you to take the opportunity to refresh or spend time with your family, so Tesla will be giving you a full week pay for the week of Jan. 4th."

The more normal term to use would have been 'recharge', not 'refresh'. I think Tesla is sending a sneaky message here.

 

[PeterJA]

A few pretty interesting comments from this employee. Makes me think this is the Plaid S launching in Q1 without 4680s. Instead it will have 18650s.

No, the employee said the lines would not shut down if 18650s were being used, because their cell chemistry has changed three times before without shutting down the lines.

Shutting down the lines means the pack architecture is changing, which can only mean 4680 cells.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Plaid is coming way earlier than the market expects.
Edit: Or else new battery packs are coming soon, and Plaid with those packs coming later in the year.

 

[2virgule5]

Plaid S configuration( "late 2021")is available for $140 K has that always been there?
(I usually never look a the S configuration page but I am now thinking about perhaps buying a 2021 " refreshed S").

Yep. And my order says ‘prepare for delivery’ (no date given of course, that’d be all over the news here)

 

[dl003]

THEY unlike general shareholders are allowed to sell calls with much less number of shares than a general shareholder?

This is not true, the general public can do this. It's called a portfolio margin account. Yes, it may seem like an easy way to make money, but when the stock move against you in a big way, it's light out in 1 2 3. You need to have a substantial amount of capital to survive, even if that is in cash and not TSLA shares.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla bear puzzles over the ‘Quadruple-WTF Chart of the Year’

...

...

Edit: removed my derogatory description of Richter. I read his WTF article and the comments section and he's pretty quick to slap down the FUD.

Tesla, Quadruple-WTF Chart of the Year: It Should Just Sell Shares on Autopilot at Huge Prices and Exit Sordid Business of Making Cars

 

[Criscmt]

This is not true, the general public can do this. It's called a portfolio margin account. Yes, it may seem like an easy way to make money, but when the stock move against you in a big way, it's light out in 1 2 3. You need to have a substantial amount of capital to survive, even if that is in cash and not TSLA shares.

I thought the margin requirement for MMs is much lower than general investors.

 

[PeterJA]

About the S&p, since it's the most popular index tracked by retirement funds, are we expecting constant buying pressure on a biweekly basis per paydays from most employers?

I think so. Money is still flowing into Vanguard index funds (some of the biggest), although slower than last year, according to a recent Barron's article (with a misleading title):

...Back those flows out, and Vanguard’s ETF inflows for the nine months were $111.5 billion—still ahead of BlackRock, but less comfortably. It also suggests that inflows into Vanguard’s index funds—both mutual funds and ETFs—were sharply lower than last year. For the first nine months of this year Vanguard took in $60.3 billion, or just 47% of what it did in the same period last year.
Why Investors Are Pulling Money From Vanguard’s Index Funds​

 

[dl003]

I thought the margin requirement for MMs is much lower than general investors.

Their margin requirement is risk-adjusted. When risk worsens by movement in the underlying, they'll get margin calls very quickly.

 

[MC3OZ]

Shutting down the lines means the pack architecture is changing, which can only mean 4680 cells.

My interpretation was he was stating that 18650 cells are going to be used with a new (structural?) pack architecture.

So far, this is all from one unconfirmed source.

The timeline of late 2021 for Plaid, doesn't stack up against this shutdown and this leak.

This does look like a "Refresh" for Model S/X, which might include Plaid shipping early...

 

[lafrisbee]

did buffet every tell the world what they bought?

 

[FrankSG]

It appears that Citadel does not own a significant amount of shares anymore. I checked @FrankSG ’s research and Q3 holders. I did not see Citadel’s name in that list. So maybe not a big deal. Either the market already has a plan for the inclusion or the folks in this forum are so much in tune with TSLA that we think this whole supply demand scenario is too good to be true.

So much of Tesla stock price movement is tied to options trading. The stock usually peaks when IV is at elevated levels. While the overall IV has stayed at decent levels, short term IV is definitely very high. I realize a vast majority of us have already placed short term bets but I would be very careful about getting in now. The risk/reward is not so great. That said this is a historical event and you don’t want to have any regrets. Just be prepared to lose it all. I still like our odds.

Firstly, I must say my knowledge of options market and delta hedging is very limited.
This sounds too easy to abuse, with conflict of interest, and there might be some laws that prevent such a thing happening?
THEY unlike general shareholders are allowed to sell calls with much less number of shares than a general shareholder?
In other words, they get certain privilege. That they are allowed to pull off something along the lines of your concern seems too prone to abuse.
If THEY were to be able to pull this off what's stopping them to repeat and rinse this to highest level of leverage they can get to irrespective of such (S&P) events?

@generalenthu @FrankSG Can you please share any information you have here?

Citadel Advisors has only held small stakes in TSLA. I believe it is an algo based hedge fund.

Citadel Securities is a TSLA options market maker, and it still holds >5% of Tesla, because it has not updated the 13G it filed earlier this year.

However, there is no way it will manipulate away the S&P inclusion. A market maker is not in the business of manipulating or making directional bets, it makes profits off of the spread and does its best to hedge away any delta exposure to the underlying stock.

Yes, Citadel could technically sell all its shares and have a large influence on S&P inclusion, but it won't, because it'd be screwing itself over. Citadel needs those shares to sell to DITM options holders when they exercise, and to stop itself from losing tens of billions of dollars the next time the stock moves up.