Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[agastya]

Sure, but if al these funds try to buy 120m shares, in open Market towards the close on Friday what will be the effect on the share price?

IMO, there's way too much focus on this being a large event, but in reality it is just mixing and matching 1.5% of your assets. If you compare the Aug runup due to speculation of the inclusion, and the post Nov-16 rise after S&P confirmation, it shows a lot of similarities - the only major difference is the trading volume.

But if you look at the trading volume between those two you will see it decrease consistently (which imo makes sense as the speculators largely exited their positions on Sep 8) and the ones who held probably are still holding them, and were not trading it anymore.

Price more or less stabilized between those two dates with a few swings here and there, but is largely consolidating, IMO, the shares that the funds need have been made available one way or the other with the extended time horizon the market has had to front run this.. Sure there could be a squeeze, but maybe 700-750. That's what my head says - my heart set a few GTC sell orders at 1200 to time it

 

[Tyler34]

With TDAmeritrade if you don't make a specific selection or click in an area outside of the trade selection it defaults to "Buy". I've almost made the same mistake because of that, now I carefully make sure I click on "Sell" if that's what I want.

could a scroll wheel have changed it to if you didnt click off of the buy/sell selector

 

[OrthoSurg]

I am absolutely livid.

Wired funds to TDAmeritrade during/just after today's first freefall.

Then I watched the second freefall unfold. Placed a limit order, 100 shares @ $625 even -- very close to the amount I had wired.

Order executes. "Wow."

You SOLD 100 shares @ 625


What evidence re: selling under market rate?

They shook the tree twice and your shares fell down!
Your Christmas tree has place for new decoration, should add 200 more next time it drops!

 

[Tslynk67]

IMO, there's way too much focus on this being a large event, but in reality it is just mixing and matching 1.5% of your assets. If you compare the Aug runup due to speculation of the inclusion, and the post Nov-16 rise after S&P confirmation, it shows a lot of similarities - the only major difference is the trading volume.

But if you look at the trading volume between those two you will see it decrease consistently (which imo makes sense as the speculators largely exited their positions on Sep 8) and the ones who held probably are still holding them, and were not trading it anymore.

Price more or less stabilized between those two dates with a few swings here and there, but is largely consolidating, IMO, the shares that the funds need have been made available one way or the other with the extended time horizon the market has had to front run this.. Sure there could be a squeeze, but maybe 700-750. That's what my head says - my heart set a few GTC sell orders at 1200 to time it

View attachment 617981

Maybe it's no big deal for the index funds, but 15% of $TSLA float to be bought up in a matter of days, even hours, would normally have an effect on the share price. Even if all those shares have been front-run by speculators over the last few weeks (which I doubt as volume has been so low), they'll want to maximise their gains as well.

 

[chrsk]

Volume this fare today is app 37 millions. Looks like we are ending up below the average of 47 millions.

Either are we all over estimating the impact of the inclusion, or the funds will wait until the bitter end. Have a feeling this might end up being a sell the news moment, but hope I’m wrong.

 

[Rb48888]

Wasn't a joke to me. And yes, that's exactly what happened.

Glad you were able to buy back with minimal damage.

FWIW, after I made a similar fat-fingered move a while back, someone here recommended calling my broker, which I did.

In that case, E-trade was able to reverse the trade for me.

I sweated for about an hour while they figured it out, but it's still worth a call for others in similar situations.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Maybe it's no big deal for the index funds, but 15% of $TSLA float to be bought up in a matter of days, even hours, would normally have an effect on the share price. Even if all those shares have been front-run by speculators over the last few weeks (high I doubt as volume has been so low), they'll want to maximise their gains as well.

Not if all the speculators and weaker longs have enough shares between them to satisfy demand. This is the dangerous part, and IMO why you will see selling this week and last. Speculators have made 40%+ already, they don't care about Tesla or the 2 in 5 chance of a much larger spike. They're taking 40% off the table with zero risk and are rightfully overjoyed.

In their minds, it's more likely that TSLA will drift down next week after this massive runup(that was on top of another earlier historical run up). Or even plummet.

We(I use that fairly liberally, but I think accurately) disagree. I'm of the opinion that there will be a shortfall at Friday's close and we'll see buying into next week on a spike of some sort. I could be wrong.

Anywho......12/24 calls are still somewhat reasonable, I'll likely grab one $700c near the close to knock my average at that strike down from $24 if available <$18. Will do the same later in the week if opportunity presents, likely at the same day/strike. Just buying my version of YOLO's for fun at this point. Hold a gun to my head and I think they're about 50/50 to be worthless or home runs on Monday.

So far, so good IMO......

 

[hobbes]

Just in :

Green light for #Tesla : With 16: 2 votes, the Grünheide municipal council decided on the new development plan for the Freienbrink industrial park this evening. It regulates construction measures (roads, bridges, P&R) to connect the #GigaBerlin
@bzberlin
⁩

https://twitter.com/Micha_BILD/status/1338927736870612992

Note this is not for the factory itself, but surrounding infrastructure. One more piece in the puzzle... Meanwhile, a decision on continuing tree cutting by the court is expected no earlier than Wednesday.

 

[OrthoSurg]

IMO, there's way too much focus on this being a large event, but in reality it is just mixing and matching 1.5% of your assets. If you compare the Aug runup due to speculation of the inclusion, and the post Nov-16 rise after S&P confirmation, it shows a lot of similarities - the only major difference is the trading volume.

But if you look at the trading volume between those two you will see it decrease consistently (which imo makes sense as the speculators largely exited their positions on Sep 8) and the ones who held probably are still holding them, and were not trading it anymore.

Price more or less stabilized between those two dates with a few swings here and there, but is largely consolidating, IMO, the shares that the funds need have been made available one way or the other with the extended time horizon the market has had to front run this.. Sure there could be a squeeze, but maybe 700-750. That's what my head says - my heart set a few GTC sell orders at 1200 to time it

View attachment 617981

Could it influence the shorts negatively if I set a sell order of all my shares at $1200 so they can’t be borrowed?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

When a daddy short loves a mommy index very much, they make baby shares.

When short borrows a share and sells it, this increase the supply of shares held long by as many the short seller sells. Specifically, shorts could sell these shares directly to index funds in dark pool markets. This would limit the rise in share price due to increased demand from index funds because the transactions would not happen in the public exchanges.

Why would this be happening Fri or next week? There was still a fairly massive % of shares short TSLA when inclusion was announced, my assumption is that this run up is half speculation and half short covering. To voluntarily 10x the short position you JUST ESCAPED would be universally recognized as suicide.

Who in their right mind would go down $37B.......and then double down!??!?!? Can't imagine there's a scenario where a significant % of the float acquired by indexes is from shorts. No one's bankrolling such madness in December of 2020.

 

[BornToFly]

TBH I lost track of it all

Either we go 100% up from here, or the indexes have gentlemen's agreements to buy the shares under the table at $630

Lots of theories and bright ideas, but nobody actually knows.

Not only that, but I still can't get an answer on when the index buying will end. If you follow Gary Black on Twitter, it seems like Friday close. Others suggest buying will go on for several days next week. Knowing what will actually happen would make a big difference on how the next 7 days should be played. I feel like I have my hands tied behind my back because I still don't know....

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Looking at the macro’s it seems obvious.

People are selling TSLA to diversify!

I believe this week will be full of surprises for many while also having an inevitable outcome for those paying attention.

If you are still having doubts just HODL.

 

[Big Time]

Here we go ladies and gents. POWER HOUR?

 

[dl003]

Here's what happened to Etsy on 9/18, the Friday before inclusion

The bulk of the transactions happened in the AH
Close to close gain was 2%

 

[Singuy]

I think the only thing that's certain about the market is it's uncertainty. If too many people think Tsla is going to go one way or another, then usually the opposite will happen. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

The selling we see is a good indicator that not everyone is in Tsla for some kind of S&P squeeze. Also means we may not see a squeeze to the 4 figures as anticipated. This is probably all good as consolidation usually builds a floor before the rise..and a ceiling after the rise.

 

[dc_h]

Anyone have updates on open calls for Friday? With short term calls losing value fast, the open interest could decline, which could create more upward price pressure.

 

[JusRelax]

Anyone have updates on open calls for Friday? With short term calls losing value fast, the open interest could decline, which could create more upward price pressure.

You lost me there... I thought if open interest declines, the MM's no longer need the shares that covered those calls they had sold, and thus they could sell off those shares, which would cause downward price pressure?

 

[Curt Renz]

*BIDEN TO NAME BUTTIGIEG AS TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY: REUTERS

2020 Democratic candidates: where each stands on electric cars - Electrek

USA Today - hour ago: Biden has picked Pete Buttigieg for transportation secretary

Excerpt:

As part of his proposal to shift to clean energy, Biden has proposed placing 500,000 charging stations along highways and changing federal vehicles to electric power.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I get a kick out of the way the media (Electrek in this case) likes to frame these stories as if it's the government that dictates the speed of transition to EV's. They tend to make it sound like it's the government that's mandating the switch when, in my opinion, it's happening and will continue to happen based on economics. These incentives will barely dent the speed of transition. Every little bit helps but it's not the determining factor.

The one thing US Govt policy could do would be to encourage charging infrastructure. It doesn't look like any of the carmakers are going to tackle it the way Tesla did. It's still the number one reason I wouldn't even consider a non-Tesla EV.

edit: Like Curt said.

 

[willow_hiller]

USA Today - hour ago: Biden has picked Pete Buttigieg for transportation secretary

Excerpt:

As part of his proposal to shift to clean energy, Biden has proposed placing 500,000 charging stations along highways and changing federal vehicles to electric power.

Nice. Buttigieg has a history of being pro-Tesla when he was mayor: Mayor Buttigieg condemns anti-Tesla bill