Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

$640 is probably the level where speculative buyers start to unload knowing that the $650 resistance is nearing.

Currently 124k sell order at 650

 

[ABC2D]

so, looks like the walk-down has begun

 

[TheTalkingMule]

so, looks like the walk-down has begun

There is very often a manufactured dip in the share price of TSLA around mid-morning.

 

[vikings123]

With so many posts here completely missing the mark, I'll nominate this as one of the best! ^ Good job!

It's hard to believe you posted it hours ago and yet it only had 4 positive votes! Maybe people only upvote posts that make $$ dance in their heads.

That's not what @dl003 said. The transfers would all be done at market price. It's not to "have a better price" for one fund over the other. It actually benefits both funds for the following reason: It can be tricky if you have a lot of shares to acquire or liquidate because, no matter which it is, the very act of acquiring or liquidating tends to make the price go in an unfavorable direction for you. This brings price stability for both parties.

Thanks for quoting that post, I definitely missed it the first time. While I subscribe to the overall idea I’m having a tough time with this particular aspect of this idea “However, if big firms can bring their own shares to the pool and let market pricing sort it out”. The scale of the shares that need to be traded is somewhat astronomical given the market’s conviction in Tesla. Hence my skepticism with this theory.

Why would the big firms want to give up their Tesla shares? Why would anybody want to give up their shares? Maybe I’m answering my own question but it is very interesting that ARK continues to be overweight TSLA. Is it possible they have a deal with one of the funds for a confirmed price no matter what? Is that even allowed? Man it would need a whole lot of coordination between these big firms to pull this off.

 

[gabeincal]

I would suspect something like this as well, though I don't think they'll be able to keep it to $600 tomorrow with the additional speculation that's bound to start building. What about defending that second massive spike at $700?

I expect later today and early tomorrow to show considerable successful pushdown simply because no one will be buying and it's definitely in the MMs interest to do so. Even if it costs them a bundle and they have to unwind a bit on what could be a crazy Monday. In other words.......here comes the extreme volatility!

And extreme volatility will be a great point to sell CCs. We are almost at ATH and IV could possibly go up from a crazy Monday. If I still have shares by then, I will be camping on the sell button for Feb-Mar CCs (probably 1-1.2k range)

 

[gabeincal]

Put in sell order at $784 for enough shares to match some earlier in the year long term losses. Price "scientifically" chosen to minimize number of shares sold and still cover loses. Will leave in plaace through year end even if it doesn't hit this week. Good luck to all.

Why not sell covered calls with that theory and collect some premium?

 

[Tslynk67]

Today's acquiring game seems to be centered around EMA 9.
These buyers are so cute with their acquiring strategies, on Monday it was EMA 20.

Notice how QQQ is actually on a downturn since market open.
View attachment 618460

I'd love to rate this "informative", except I have absolutely no idea what you'r'e talking about...

 

[FrankSG]

Darts, Tesla and the sad saga of picking stocks for the S&P 500

The men and women who select the stocks that go into the S&P
500 have cost investors billions of dollars by leaving Tesla
out of the index for years simply by not heeding their
golden rule: passive investing beats active management almost
all the time.

Calculations by Vincent Deluard, global macro strategist at
financial services firm StoneX, also show the S&P 500 has lagged
a truer grouping of the 500 largest U.S. stocks by 2.9% the past
three quarters after the portfolio is rebalanced every month.

The S&P does not track the exact performance of the 500
largest U.S. publicly traded stocks. The index actually holds
505 stocks that are selected by a committee whose poor
decision-making is why the benchmark, which has about $4.6
trillion in investment indexed to it, has recently
underperformed, he said.

"The wise men and women of the S&P index committee are being
beaten by the proverbial monkey throwing darts at the big
board," he said in a research note to investors.
In essence, the committee isn't eating its own pudding,
Deluard argues. S&P Dow Jones Indices, which has tracked active
management versus index investing for years, has long said the
majority of active managers underperform most of the time.

Deluard said criticism is easy and he understood much of the
committee's logic, but decisions should be made by active
investors with a fiduciary duty to their clients.

For example, the exclusion of stocks with multiple shares -
one share class for the public and another for company founders,
family and others - led index funds to miss some of the biggest
rallies of 2020, such as Zoom and Pinterest,
Deluard said.

Tesla's tardy inclusion in the benchmark cost investors
dearly because the S&P would be valued $566 billion more had it
been added the first day the stock traded in 2010, he said.

Tesla's 60% surge since mid-November is mostly due to buying
in anticipation of the stock's entry in the S&P 500 next Monday,
a surge the index didn't participate in. Tesla would probably
still trade in the $300 range if index fund demand had been
spread out over time, he said.

But investors have begun to vote with their wallets, Deluard
said. The largest S&P 500 index-based ETF has seen outflows of
$60 billion since February 2018, with most of the money going
into truly passive total-market index funds, he said.

"It is time to retire the most important equity index in the
world," Deluard said.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

It would be sweet justice to see Gordon Johnson carried away in the back of a Model Y.

I know we all have fun with GJ. I just hope we all know the media/ financial outlets are the real evil empire here. If your “guest” is never right and you keep having him on is a serious problem. At least disclose if he or another entity is paying.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Don’t holders as of Friday that will participate in the expected epic closing cross have every incentive to try to work the price up late Friday afternoon? (As it appears there is very little index buying so far this week, and those funds are waiting for the closing cross to initiate and they hope complete purchasing.)

If I understand Rob Maurer’s explanation correctly, the closing cross happens at exactly the closing price which will be influenced by orders at close arriving ~3:50pm Friday. So then buys and sells are matched and are transacted at whichever number of shares is lower, and virtually immediately. If an imbalance remains (and unmet demand), then there could be a spike in after-hours trading. Any unmet demand from there carries over to Monday AM, but there might possibly be no carryover.

 

[dl003]

The key thing here that one must absolutely understand that the "spike" is simply a theory at this point. If one fund sells to another at market price, it'll be difficult to prove in a court of law that the selling fund is defrauding its investors out of a well-deserved "spike" that was never guaranteed. That's like saying if nobody is selling NKLA then NKLA will be worth infinity. That, too, is a theory.
If one fund's TSLA position has got so big, as is the case with Baillie Gifford earlier this year, it's entirely reasonable to trim the position.
If one fund has determined, after having done its due diligence, that TSLA is now so far ahead of its P:E, it's entirely reasonable to unload the position. We have seen this done a thousand times over the year. Why, all of a sudden, is everyone on WS mandated to be a TSLA permabull?
If a fund from within Fidelity bought TSLA at 408 and now is selling it to a Fidelity index fund at CURRENT MARKET PRICE OF 650, it would have done a fantastic job for its investors, generating a gain of 50% on the position in 4 weeks. What happens next week is unknown.
Please remember that nothing is guaranteed in the market, no matter how deserving we think we are of a spike. The rule of supplies and demand will dictate the outcome and it's entirely realistic for big firms to sell the shares internally while staying fully compliant with SEC's regulation, as well as satisfying its investors' expectation. Place yourself in the shoes of a non-TSLA bull who is invested in one of these funds. If the fund refuses to sell TSLA on Friday and it drops next week, will you thank it for "holding the line"?
I'm not projecting doom and gloom. I'm just trying to bring some rationale to the table. Without rationale, we would never have invested in TSLA. We might go up next week for all I know. But, let's not play TSLAQ and cry foul when things don't go our way.

 

[Pezpunk]

i'm not buying any of this closing cross malarkey.

 

[MABMAB]

i'm not buying any of this closing cross malarkey.

AMEN!
It is interesting to finally see some discussion about how large funds can place orders though.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I know we all have fun with GJ. I just hope we all know the media/ financial outlets are the real evil empire here. If your “guest” is never right and you keep having him on is a serious problem. At least disclose if he or another entity is paying.

I admit he is great for entertainment, however if he truly has no real 'company' that manages $ or does any business, it is just shady AF to keep getting paychecks from big oil to dump on Tesla. I guess everyone has their price to sell their soul, however, you could not pay me enough to constantly make a fool of myself on national television. I guess it is ok if you live in your parent's basement

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm not projecting doom and gloom. I'm just trying to bring some rationale to the table. Without rationale, we would never have invested in TSLA. We might go up next week for all I know. But, let's not play TSLAQ and cry foul when things don't go our way.

Agreed. I'm seeing a lot of attribution of events to manipulation, etc., when they could just as easily be explained by human behavior. I understand the paranoia given what Tesla (and TSLA) has endured over the years, but the reality is that the stock price is influenced by many different actors with different motives, and we simply don't have enough information right now to know what is going to happen or why.

I think this is one of those events that will require the benefit of hindsight to better understand.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm not projecting doom and gloom. I'm just trying to bring some rationale to the table. Without rationale, we would never have invested in TSLA. We might go up next week for all I know. But, let's not play TSLAQ and cry foul when things don't go our way.

This isn't a rationale for buying/selling/holding, it's more like an emotional defense mechanism or simply a rational conservative mindset.

We all know anything can happen, but if you're looking for a rationale for decision-making......16% of the TSLA float is about to be purchased and effectively locked in a box forever. No one should have to apologize for thinking that will cause some rapid share price appreciation followed by a decline. It's just simple logic.

Yes, dark pools of both normal and nefarious players could provide $78B+ worth of shares in one fat injection on Friday afternoon, but somehow I doubt it.

 

[FrankSG]

Thanks to @dww12 for the idea to compare TSLA to a couple of the other big S&P stocks.

It's very clear that between 9:45 and 10:15 TSLA was being bought, while AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN faced downward pressure.

10:45 to 11:15AM is less obvious, but it looks like there could've been a correlation.

Also... damn that candle just now at 11:28 was on very large volume (5x prior minute)

 

[bkp_duke]

Pierced 640, see if it lasts.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pierced 640, see if it lasts.

I think we're about to eat into these $650 sell orders. \

 

[Cherry Wine]

Thanks to @dww12 for the idea to compare TSLA to a couple of the other big S&P stocks.

View attachment 618475

It's very clear that between 9:45 and 10:15 TSLA was being bought, while AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN faced downward pressure.

10:45 to 11:15AM is less obvious, but it looks like there could've been a correlation.

Also... damn that candle just now at 11:28 was on very large volume (5x prior minute)

How is per-hour volume looking compared to yesterday? Seeing any sort of uptick that would support the idea that index funds are starting to buy?