Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

The index funds don’t care so much about what price they have to buy. What they care about is what’s gonna happen after inclusion, in particular the last days of December trading. Their business depends on S&P 500 delivering a solid annual return (10-15% or better), that’s the market appeal of these funds.

So, in my opinion, this means if the index funds have any control over what happens at all, they will focus their efforts on preventing a huge sell-off after inclusion. That’s why I’m not worried about it.

The problem is, once their TSLA buying is complete, they will just sit on their shares and have no way to influence any of the stocks in the index until the next re-balance which is March 2021 AFAIK. So it is immaterial "what is best" for the index funds, they will have no power to influence the outcome -- that's why they are called passive funds.

 

[Knightshade]

But it could also be profit taking from somebody who bought these right after announcement. .

Also before announcement in my case- as we got north of 645 today I sold the (relatively short term) 390 calls I'd bought back in late Sept when SP dropped to ~380....

Yeah there might be a bit more upside tomorrow (or might not), but most mistakes I've ever made with purchased options have been holding em too long, and I was happy enough a bit north of 5x returns, as that's quite a bit more than I expected out of them when purchased.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You will be bored out of your mind after this. Tesla FUD have been decreasing. Pretty soon this stock will be as interesting as holding Amzn and Appl. So enjoy this moment in time while it last.

Agreed....pretty soon, we will only be spending 4 hours/day on TMC instead of a full 'work' day

 

[MABMAB]

We are at the time of day that I associate with lower prices, even lows of the day.
This is just a lull before marching higher

 

[chrsk]

Fun to se that once volume gets back above average the SP increases. This should bode well for tomorrow.

 

[Artful Dodger]

1. No (not as of yesterday, according to public information that they update daily themselves)

Did you look at the holdings of VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares

It was revealed here in the past day that they hold ~$9,5B of TSLA and the charter for this ETF requires them to sell any stock that appears on the S&P 500 Index.

Most likely is that Vanguard will conduct an internal xfer of those shares to their S&P 500 ETF at the Closing SP on Friday, and report this private market transfer (a.k.a. 'Dark Pool') no later than 16:00:04 hrs on Fri, Dec 18, 2020.

Then those shares of TSLA will appear on the other ETF in the next daily reporting cycle.

It's unknown if other large funds have similar arrangements, but that speaks to our knowledge gap, not the mechanism of providing liquidity.

Cheers!

 

[Remster32]

This went under the radar, but Barclays raises their price target on TSLA from $125 to $230, while "remaining stubbornly underweight" (crazy, I know).

They are forecasting total production of vehicles to be:
FY'20: 486,000
FY'21: 756,000
FY'22: 976,000
FY'23: 1,124,000
FY'24: 1,147,000
FY'25: 1,138,000

That's right, production is peaking in 2024. And there will be no significant growth after FY'23 .

 

[Johan]

Did you look at the holdings of VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares

It was revealed here in the past day that they hold ~$9,5B of TSLA and the charter for this ETF requires them to sell any stock that appears on the S&P 500 Index.

Most likely is that Vanguard will conduct an internal xfer of those shares to their S&P 500 ETF at the Closing SP on Friday, and report this private market transfer (a.k.a. 'Dark Pool') no later than 16:00:04 hrs on Fri, Dec 18, 2020.

Then those shares of TSLA will appear on the other ETF in the next daily reporting cycle.

It's unknown if other large funds have similar arrangements, but that speaks to our knowledge gap, not the mechanism of providing liquidity.

Cheers!

Yes I saw this. And I believe you're quite right to assume that exactly this will happen. So does that make the answer to the question: "Did the index funds already buy their shares?" yes? In a practial sense yes. But at what price? At a pre arranged price or at market close on Friday?

 

[EVortex]

Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
-WSJ

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power.

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.

Very tasty, Chef Toyoda! What’s for desert?

 

[Johan]

This went under the radar, but Barclays raises their price target on TSLA from $125 to $230, while "remaining stubbornly underweight" (crazy, I know).

They are forecasting total production of vehicles to be:
FY'20: 486,000
FY'21: 756,000
FY'22: 976,000
FY'23: 1,124,000
FY'24: 1,147,000
FY'25: 1,138,000

That's right, production is peaking in 2024. And there will be no significant growth after FY'23 .

... Says expert analyst who is in the bottom 5 percentile of everyone in his trade. (But hey statistics dictate that someone has to be on the tail end of the distribution, so let's not be too hard on the guy. However, maybe his analysis should come with a caveat that his track record shows that he's really bad at his job)

 

[pjferr]

FYI - for anyone that may want to participate in the closing cross tomorrow, I checked with TD Ameritrade and you can enter limit on close orders through ThinkOrSwim but not the TD Ameritrade website or apps

I'm with TD Direct Investing in Canada. I'm interested in putting in high limit sell order that could potential execute in the closing cross tomorrow in the event there's a squeeze. Out of all of the order options my platform makes available it looks like the best one is "Limit - Day + EXT Markets". I've used this option to buy and sell in premarket and after hours in the past. Do you guys think this type of a limit order will execute in the closing cross?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

... Says expert analyst who is in the bottom 5 percentile of everyone in his trade.

View attachment 618525

That pic is misleading...i cannot tell if this guy has 0.0000000000000000001 more star than Gordo......At least they have the same last name in common as well as their IQ level.

 

[dl003]

You will be bored out of your mind after this. Tesla FUD have been decreasing. Pretty soon this stock will be as interesting as holding Amzn and Appl. So enjoy this moment in time while it last.

Agree. TSLA's RSI seems to be making lower peaks from the peak in February when we went up 20% a day like nobody's business. By the look of it, we only have another 9 - 12 months of fun.

 

[Tslynk67]

"Limit on Close". Pick your price. Then the shares either sell or they don't.

With the other type of order "Market on Close" you are almost guaranteed that your shares trade, you just don't know the SP which could change as much as +/- 20% during the Closing Cross (see the NASDAQ pdf's for details of the max. varience).

So pick your poison:

• "No trade" risk
• "Trade SP" risk
• "No Thank-you" risk

Cheers!

Yes, I well understand all of the above, but I just don't have these order types available to me, this is it note no "roll/buy on sell" either:

In any case, I'm going to position myself for the coming month prior to tomorrow's close.

 

[FrankSG]

This went under the radar, but Barclays raises their price target on TSLA from $125 to $230, while "remaining stubbornly underweight" (crazy, I know).

They are forecasting total production of vehicles to be:
FY'20: 486,000
FY'21: 756,000
FY'22: 976,000
FY'23: 1,124,000
FY'24: 1,147,000
FY'25: 1,138,000

That's right, production is peaking in 2024. And there will be no significant growth after FY'23 .

View attachment 618523

I could see Tesla doing that 2025 number next year, in 2021

 

[zeed]

Is this all

Did you look at the holdings of VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares

It was revealed here in the past day that they hold ~$9,5B of TSLA and the charter for this ETF requires them to sell any stock that appears on the S&P 500 Index.

Most likely is that Vanguard will conduct an internal xfer of those shares to their S&P 500 ETF at the Closing SP on Friday, and report this private market transfer (a.k.a. 'Dark Pool') no later than 16:00:04 hrs on Fri, Dec 18, 2020.

Then those shares of TSLA will appear on the other ETF in the next daily reporting cycle.

It's unknown if other large funds have similar arrangements, but that speaks to our knowledge gap, not the mechanism of providing liquidity.

Cheers!

Internal xfer of holding between funds prohibited according to Gary B.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1339294115310276610?s=19

 

[Tslynk67]

This went under the radar, but Barclays raises their price target on TSLA from $125 to $230, while "remaining stubbornly underweight" (crazy, I know).

They are forecasting total production of vehicles to be:
FY'20: 486,000
FY'21: 756,000
FY'22: 976,000
FY'23: 1,124,000
FY'24: 1,147,000
FY'25: 1,138,000

That's right, production is peaking in 2024. And there will be no significant growth after FY'23 .

View attachment 618523

You don't have to dig very deep to find the reason for some of these low-ball price-targets: https://www.cityam.com/barclays-fossil-fuel-financing-increases-despite-net-zero-pledge/

 

[Curt Renz]

Bloomberg - this morning: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Excerpt:

Tesla Inc. is the lone U.S. automaker to meet a commitment to equip all its models with automatic emergency braking almost two years ahead of schedule, as Detroit automakers lag behind the safety leaders.

 

[15Peter20]

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power.

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.[/QUOTE]

Hilarious. So where are they going to get the hydrogen for their (basically vapourware) FCEVs? Or their amazing new solid state batteries?

 

[dww12]

I'm with TD Direct Investing in Canada. I'm interested in putting in high limit sell order that could potential execute in the closing cross tomorrow in the event there's a squeeze. Out of all of the order options my platform makes available it looks like the best one is "Limit - Day + EXT Markets". I've used this option to buy and sell in premarket and after hours in the past. Do you guys think this type of a limit order will execute in the closing cross?

If you are going to do that why not just sell in after hrs? Wouldn’t any squeeze be reflected there?