Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

NPR - hour ago: In Historic Move, Biden To Pick Native American Rep. Haaland As Interior Secretary

Excerpt:

In an interview before her nomination, Haaland told NPR that would be her priority, too.

"Climate change is the challenge of our lifetime, and it's imperative that we invest in an equitable, renewable energy economy," she said.

A shift in priorities at Interior could have major implications for global climate change and the United States' outsized contribution to it. About one-quarter of all U.S. carbon emissions come from fossil fuels extracted on public lands, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That includes emissions from drilling, transporting and refining those fossil fuels before they're burned.

It's looking that the next cabinet is all going to be gung ho about establishing a better renewable foundation.

Then, even if the Pres. seat flips in four years, by then the S curve will have already long squished the dirty energy corporations. Even under the current president, who was Pro-Coal, that industry still was collapsing under their feet.

More solar energy on people's homes make more of them think, "Hm, this free energy is real nice. Wonder how I can expand that?" and then end up getting an electric car.

 

[StealthP3D]

I can’t get the hang of this ‘trading shares’ thing.

I bought some for the first time a number of weeks back, but I want all of my shares just the same whether ‘core’ or ‘trading.’ Have never parted with a single one and don’t want to (well maybe a few in 2024 or so).

Here I’m supposed to close on that disused cabin on Monday. Pretty sure I’ll not be selling shares to send any money to escrow by then, lol.

Probably ask for an extension with a disclaimer that I’m still not sure about the purchase. Like as not I’ll ‘promote’ those trading shares to core shares and walk away from that real estate deal.

It might make for a good story in 2025. You could point at that old structure and say "Yup, that cabin there cost me over $5 million dollars. That's not including taxes and upkeep!"

 

[HG Wells]

It might make for a good story in 2025. You could point at that old structure and say "Yup, that cabin there cost me over $5 million dollars. That's not including taxes and upkeep!"

Dam, That burger I ate back in 2013 cost me a thousand bucks !

 

[MikeC]

fwiw -- I called TD Ameritrade to get some clarity on (currently) OTM $700 options I have expiring tomorrow (in a Roth account).

My question was: What happens if they are OTM 5 minutes before close, but then TSLA runs up and the options become ITM in the last minute and I don't have a chance to close them.

TD Ameritrade told me that 1) since there is no margin in a Roth, and 2) since I don't have the free cash available to exercise the options, that they actually would most likely be monitoring and would sell me out (i.e. close my position) 30-45 minutes BEFORE market close.

They said if I don't want this to happen to me (i.e. if I'm planning for a rise in the last 10 minutes), that I should call them an hour before and let them know.

I share this info in case applicable/helpful to anyone else. You may have different intel than I, but something to be aware of.

As for my original question about the options expiring ITM before I have a chance to close (and with no cash available to exercise), sounds like not an ideal situation. But seems like there may be a way they can exercise/immediately sell in some type of seamless transaction.

I’ve had calls go in the money by a few cents right at the close. I was able to call my broker (Schwab) and give a do not exercise order.

Seems kinda unfair for your broker to close you out, you should be trusted to watch your own position. If you can’t do that, you should close out the position yourself.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Dam, That burger cost me a thousand bucks !

Kobe beef? Would not be surprised if we see a $1k burger in the near future.

 

[StealthP3D]

Cybertruck delayed:
Tesla Cybertruck remote-controlled electric truck is delayed - Electrek

Bearish.

Wouldn't it be funny if Tesla released the real Cybertruck before Mattel could get their toy Cybertruck out the door?

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw...

Had an idea after noticing something in Rob Mauer's video yesterday.

From about 8:30 into the video Rob does a 2 minute review of when dark pool (or ATS) trades need to be reported. Towards the end of that two minutes he shows a chart from FINRA, and sums up that basically from 8am to 8pm they have 10 seconds to report the trades.

However, from midnight to 8am, they have until 8:15am to report the trades (I guess 8pm to midnight either doesn't happen or is below the section of the chart he showed in the video) Having the midnight to 8am section of the chart at all, does suggest it is a potential trade window for at least some forms of ATS, though that does not necessarily include dark pools. IIRC Rob said dark pools are a category of ATS.

I have no idea if there is precedent for this, and, obviously no idea if any major actors are considering this for large TSLA trades... but, it would seem like it could be a very appealing strategy to arrange to do large volume trading in the early morning hours on Monday. This would reduce the possibility of a massive closing cross imbalance, and massive amounts of unmatched shares, that anybody paying $15 could see (and realize that the index funds were far from able to source enough shares, meaning longs would know they had the upper hand, and even had some quantitative insight into how big the upper hand is).

So it seems the index funds may be able to arrange massive trades that wont be reported on for many hours, and which nobody will know how much imbalance there may have been in either direction. Pairings could be made to do such large trades early AM Monday at whatever Fridays closing cross trade was (which would optimize tracking error reduction). If such a pairing Monday night falls short of doing the full job, rinse and repeat early Tuesday AM, all without the hazard of the whole market seeing the very challenging circumstances you are in... if it's legal, and if you can find a partner on the other end of the trade.

 

[StealthP3D]

fwiw...

Had an idea after noticing something in Rob Mauer's video yesterday.

From about 8:30 into the video Rob does a 2 minute review of when dark pool (or ATS) trades need to be reported. Towards the end of that two minutes he shows a chart from FINRA, and sums up that basically from 8am to 8pm they have 10 seconds to report the trades.

However, from midnight to 8am, they have until 8:15am to report the trades (I guess 8pm to midnight either doesn't happen or is below the section of the chart he showed in the video) Having the midnight to 8am section of the chart at all, does suggest it is a potential trade window for at least some forms of ATS, though that does not necessarily include dark pools. IIRC Rob said dark pools are a category of ATS.

I have no idea if there is precedent for this, and, obviously no idea if any major actors are considering this for large TSLA trades... but, it would seem like it could be a very appealing strategy to arrange to do large volume trading in the early morning hours on Monday. This would reduce the possibility of a massive closing cross imbalance, and massive amounts of unmatched shares, that anybody paying $15 could see (and realize that the index funds were far from able to source enough shares, meaning longs would know they had the upper hand, and even had some quantitative insight into how big the upper hand is).

So it seems the index funds may be able to arrange massive trades that wont be reported on for many hours, and which nobody will know how much imbalance there may have been in either direction. Pairings could be made to do such large trades early AM Monday at whatever Fridays closing cross trade was (which would optimize tracking error reduction). If such a pairing Monday night falls short of doing the full job, rinse and repeat early Tuesday AM, all without the hazard of the whole market seeing the very challenging circumstances you are in... if it's legal, and if you can find a partner on the other end of the trade.

That makes no sense. The reporting of the trades is not what could cause liquidity issues - it's finding adequate numbers of sellers. I fail to see how doing unreported trades changes that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But at what price? At a pre arranged price or at market close on Friday?

It has to be at the Friday Close SP. And that's exactly what they want to do: track the index as closely as possible.

The only issue preventing them from reaching their goal is potential insufficient liquidity. When they buy from their sister fund (at market rate), they have eliminated that risk.

What I haven't seen is how much they need to buy. They will have after-hrs Fri and all of Monday (at least) to balance any allocation mismatch.

Cheers!

 

[SteveG3]

That makes no sense. The reporting of the trades is not what could cause liquidity issues - it's finding adequate numbers of sellers. I fail to see how doing unreported trades changes that.

please read what I wrote again. if there is a liquidity issue, it gets less exposed in Friday's MOC. it seems quite clear to me that there are advantages to the index funds to keep out of public view the scale of any shortfall of shares available to them on Friday's closing cross.

 

[Duffer]

It's looking that the next cabinet is all going to be gung ho about establishing a better renewable foundation.

Then, even if the Pres. seat flips in four years, by then the S curve will have already long squished the dirty energy corporations. Even under the current president, who was Pro-Coal, that industry still was collapsing under their feet.

More solar energy on people's homes make more of them think, "Hm, this free energy is real nice. Wonder how I can expand that?" and then end up getting an electric car.

The emphasis on renewable energy is, IMHO, overdue. My only concern is the anti-Elon/Tesla sentiment by some members of the incoming party.

 

[LN1_Casey]

The emphasis on renewable energy is, IMHO, overdue. My only concern is the anti-Elon/Tesla sentiment by some members of the party.

Eh, I don't think they can do anything directly to Overlord Musk, even if they personally hated him. Hard to write legal law and say, "Blessings upon all renewable companies... except for Elon Musk, that guy."

Same for Tesla as a whole. They may be able to squirrel some limiting language in, such as for price for cars to get incentives, but can't name dump Tesla. In the end of the day, Tesla is a renewable company, from the ground up. Their goal is to accelerate the transition to renewables, even if it's not them directly.

 

[jw934]

Sorry if this has already been posted. Way way too many posts today for me to go through.

So. . . This is new, to me:

Sean Mitchell interviews Sandy Munro. Around 17:47 mark, both agreed analysts really don't know much about EVs. ("most of them own GM stocks and are trying to get their money back"). Interesting comment from Sandy: he is getting calls from brokerage houses that are bypassing Auto analysts and going to experts. In fact he has an meeting lined up with one right after speaking to Sean. Looks good for $TSLA once all of these investment firms who have been sitting on the sideline starts to clue in.

 

[Tim S]

fwiw -- I called TD Ameritrade to get some clarity on (currently) OTM $700 options I have expiring tomorrow (in a Roth account).

My question was: What happens if they are OTM 5 minutes before close, but then TSLA runs up and the options become ITM in the last minute and I don't have a chance to close them.

TD Ameritrade told me that 1) since there is no margin in a Roth, and 2) since I don't have the free cash available to exercise the options, that they actually would most likely be monitoring and would sell me out (i.e. close my position) 30-45 minutes BEFORE market close.

They said if I don't want this to happen to me (i.e. if I'm planning for a rise in the last 10 minutes), that I should call them an hour before and let them know.

I share this info in case applicable/helpful to anyone else. You may have different intel than I, but something to be aware of.

As for my original question about the options expiring ITM before I have a chance to close (and with no cash available to exercise), sounds like not an ideal situation. But seems like there may be a way they can exercise/immediately sell in some type of seamless transaction.

I have a Roth IRA with ETrade. I have had calls expire in the money without enough cash in the account. ETrade exercises the calls over the weekend and I get a "cash call". I just have to raise the cash Monday morning after the market opens by selling shares or options.

I have done this multiple times and I will again tomorrow if we close over $650.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes it is pretty silly. Japan is a modern industrialized country just like Norway. And in Norway we have exceptionally many EVs. So they did a study:

The underlying assumption is that 75 percent of all new passenger cars will be electric cars by 2030, while the remaining are rechargeable hybrids.
Even in a scenario with full electrification, electric cars will only account for 4.2 per cent of electricity consumption. It is not enough that it will have a major impact on electricity prices, according to TØI.

Japan is a long way from having full electrification of their cars. So they have plenty of time to adjust their power production. Dare I suggest solar panels and battery plants?

Source: Elektrifisering av bilparken vil i liten grad påvirke strømprisen

Yeah, Toyoda is wrong. Coal still burns at night when most EVs are charged, and the grid has plenty of spare generation capacity. So he's just parroting fossil denier talking points. Sad, but false.

Modern combined-cycle steam turbines are over 50% efficient, whereas the ICE in that Toyota is less than 25%. So an EV even when charged from 100% coal is still more efficient than gasoline/diesel cars.

 

[lascavarian]

Shep Smith on CNBC just did a brief mention of Tesla and the S&P saying that there will be about $80 billion of shares (my memory) purchased tomorrow as part of joining the S&P.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Shep Smith on CNBC just did a brief mention of Tesla and the S&P saying that there will be about $80 billion of shares (my memory) purchased tomorrow as part of joining the S&P.

That's the goal, buy 120M shares or so. It's been mentioned here a few times.

 

[soundart2]

I have a Roth IRA with ETrade. I have had calls expire in the money without enough cash in the account. ETrade exercises the calls over the weekend and I get a "cash call". I just have to raise the cash Monday morning after the market opens by selling shares or options.

I have done this multiple times and I will again tomorrow if we close over $650.

Thanks for the replies and advice, everyone.

Agastya -- I will prob put a sell limit order on. Was thinking the same thing, but of course, I could always get too aggressive and miss it.

MikeC -- TD did seem to indicate there's a type of "do not exercise" order I can give, but he made it sound not ideal. But yea, the ideal they would sell IN ADVANCE without me knowing is why I wanted to put the warning out there. At least so that people are aware.

And, Tim S, that does seem how it might work. And then my cash call is to sell my other TSLA shares, to buy these ones. Which would basically be a wash, unless the stock were to drop. Though, conversely, I suppose the stock could pop and I'd get a nice bump.

Well, let's hope stock shoots up enough tomorrow such that I have this problem!

Thanks, all.

 

[MC3OZ]

That makes no sense. The reporting of the trades is not what could cause liquidity issues - it's finding adequate numbers of sellers. I fail to see how doing unreported trades changes that.

The seller has to be a font runner selling to the fund at the closing price.

if I was running a fund (and this was legal), I would aim to get the majority of my shares this way.

We have zero realistic information on front running IMO, mostly because we don't know when it started.

The counter point is the number of shares that need to be purchased would have been hard to purchase at any time.

So I'm still totally clueless about how this will actually play out...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Trivia Question: Can anybody spot the "Closing Cross" in this chart?

Cheers!