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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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After-action Report: Fri, Dec 18, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Giga Closing Cross w. ATH on D-1"

Traded: $116,089,733,059.91 ($116.09B) **
Volume: 173,259,120 **
VWAP: $670.04 **

Close: $695.00 / VWAP: 104.53% **
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $560 (+$10 since Wed)

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $658.791B / $214.944B = 306.49%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11 (SEC Filing)
CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11 shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $566.56B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $380.89B

Mkt Cap req'd for 6th tranche ($350B) reached Mon, Dec 07, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.
'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 43.8% (42nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 57.8% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.83% of Short Volume (49th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 2020-12-18.png


**Note: Volumes in the above chart are incomplete due to EDGAR data source/Closing Cross data dissemination. As a result, actual VWAP will also be higher than the values shown above.

QOTD: @larmor "they did not take Economics 101 and hence do not understand supply and demand"

Comment: "10-Min Closing Cross Vol:16.45M VWAP:$661.16 Traded:$10.88B"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!
 
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Upon reflection, who sold those 70-120M shares? I’m guessing ARK set up their rebalancing trade for the closing cross. Makes perfect sense when trying to dump millions of shares without impacting the SP. Definitely, dark pools like Vanguard Extended Index transferring shares to their S&P index. I suppose a few other internal transfers (e.g., maybe some growth funds “might” sell to lock in profits, with the justification that once in the S&P growth will slow). Who else? The big MM/houses that picked up shares all year for their proprietary clients?
 
Can you say "Shanghai Gigafactory Phase 3", coming to a former watermelon field near you...

View attachment 618912
Has anyone identified the species of watermelon to be uprooted, impact on their offspring and seed migration patterns, and potential of being an endangered fruit species in need of preserves....er...um...preservation?
 
Upon reflection, who sold those 70-120M shares? I’m guessing ARK set up their rebalancing trade for the closing cross. Makes perfect sense when trying to dump millions of shares without impacting the SP. Definitely, dark pools like Vanguard Extended Index transferring shares to their S&P index. I suppose a few other internal transfers (e.g., maybe some growth funds “might” sell to lock in profits, with the justification that once in the S&P growth will slow). Who else? The big MM/houses that picked up shares all year for their proprietary clients?


ARK did not liquidate any TSLA positions today
upload_2020-12-18_19-16-18.png
 
Ugh, @truth_tesla on Twitter is driving me insane talking about a failed closing cross. 69m shares traded hands, it was volatile but it wasn't failed. The high official inclusion price plus after hours volume strongly suggest that indexers will have their shares with acceptable tracking error come Monday.

https://twitter.com/reardencode/status/1340101710342021120?s=19

I expect pretty stable prices next week actually, with no unreasonable overshoot, nor remaining forced buying. Overall nice work by the market at clearing, entertaining though it was.
 
So... when do they announce TSLA's inclusion into the DJIA? :eek:
Tesla now qualifies for the Dow index as well. $8T under management. When is that happening?

Let the Part Duex game begin and may the odds be in your favor!

That could be fairly soon. The same company that chooses S&P components, essentially does the same for the DJIA.

Ever since the 2009 General Motors bankruptcy, the DJIA has not had a carmaker as a component. One is really needed to make the DJIA more reflective of large companies in American industry.

However, another stock split may be required. Unlike the market cap weighted S&P 500, the DJIA is weighted by share price. TSLA shares are currently priced far higher than any of the DJIA components. If it were in the DJIA at its current price, it would be too great of an influence on the average.
 
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Upon reflection, who sold those 70-120M shares? I’m guessing ARK set up their rebalancing trade for the closing cross. Makes perfect sense when trying to dump millions of shares without impacting the SP. Definitely, dark pools like Vanguard Extended Index transferring shares to their S&P index. I suppose a few other internal transfers (e.g., maybe some growth funds “might” sell to lock in profits, with the justification that once in the S&P growth will slow). Who else? The big MM/houses that picked up shares all year for their proprietary clients?

I have a different theory.

The extra time for inclusion allowed the hedge funds and larger players enough time to scrape up shares every day to then resell at the closing cross transaction for significant profit.

Can I prove this? No.

But why else give all the extra time to prepare for inclusion?

Fortunately, those shares are now locked up in index funds, reducing the float. So the odds of a large post inclusion drop I believe are small.
 
For a good laugh, watch this live commentary video by Meet Kevin—a pretty well-known investment-advice YouTuber with a large following. He clearly has no clue whatsoever what’s going on as he is watching the last 5 minutes of regular trading! :p (funniest part starting at 7:15 into the video)

To give him credit.
Nobody actually understood what was going on, not even Rob Mauer.
However, that’s is not the definition of a sell off, more like a click bait
 
However, another stock split may be required. Unlike the market cap weighted S&P 500, the DJIA is weighted by share price. TSLA shares are currently priced far higher than any of the current DJIA components. If it were in the DJIA at its current price, it would be too great of an influence on the average.

*snicker*
 
FSD Beta update: Tesla Raj says that the FSD Beta can now [sometimes] navigate down Lombard St in San Francisco with 0 interventions:

This is a pretty important video. One unique edge case where FSD clearly struggled a lot a month ago. Then they got more data of this edge case and now they managed a drive without intervention. As they get more vehicles with FSD on the roads around the world expect to see similar progress for every edge case like driving on snow, driving in fog, heavy rain etc etc. This gives me a lot of confidence in their strategy!
 
That could be fairly soon. The same company that chooses S&P components, essentially does the same for the DJIA.

Ever since the General Motors bankruptcy, the DJIA has not had a carmaker as a component. One is really needed to make the DJIA more reflective of large companies in American industry.

However, another stock split may be required. Unlike the market cap weighted S&P 500, the DJIA is weighted by share price. TSLA shares are currently priced far higher than any of the current DJIA components. If it were in the DJIA at its current price, it would be too great of an influence on the average.


It boggles my mind how DJI is constituted. Holding equal number of shares of each constituent irrespective of their share price doesn't logically look to be a very good way of investing... but is considered the bellwether of the US economy

AAPL used to be the top component, but after their recent split they have now dropped to #19. So basically after a stock splits, the fund sells off the split component (keeping only 1) - which sounds ridiculous
upload_2020-12-18_19-26-47.png
 

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