Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Everyone here is acting in a jubilant mood but I am anything but jubilant. The #firstworldproblems of being a super bull..

The negatives

• Closing price was just a 5% rise
• If another 60m shares had been bought during the day, the SP would have spiked much higher
• This closing cross thing is witchcraft
• Shorts will not have received margin calls - no short burn
• Did shorts push it into the red on the day of inclusion or was it MMs manipulating?
• Indexes appear to have gotten the vast majority of the shares needed
• Who sold them all and why did they collude to hand them over cheaply?
• I no longer see major price rises next week
• A drop is quite possible

The positives

• Emmet Peppers has bought Jan 21 900s - let's hope he is right
• I wasn't able to follow suit with risky calls fortunately
• A lower SP is a more stable platform to build from going forwards
• I can deleverage in April and put off my tax payments

I refuse to add ATH to the positives - maybe I will become more grateful over time.

Phew - needed to get that off my chest. Already looking forward to P&D.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I’m feeling pretty confident right now.

Basically the Split timing entombed the shorts, and a good quarter W/ S&P announcements looming brought us from the 400-600 range.
These big dawgs who just got in at 695, yes they attempt to mimic the S&P, but aren’t they the same MMs who constantly with us every day at 10am. Is this going to stop? Let’s say it goes down to 600 flat. Who’s got the money to drop it now? Do the same people who own it have any side bets or hedging to want the price to go down?

If anyone could help me understand where the stock price sits and what kind of firepower is needed to really dent the stock after this massive new holding & float removal.

thanks all,
Excited for Monday

There will always be firepower and non-believers that will attempt to bring $TSLA down. HODL has proven time and time again that the attempts will be thwarted with new ATH's! What i am excited for is 2021 and the factories ramping up, Compact announcement, semi and CT, energy, insurance, FSD....oh boy....it's gonna be epic! Now, for $TSLA SP, i will be happy if we end 2021 at around $850 - $900. However, i will be ecstatic if we are in the 4 digits maybe we'll be in the $400's, (after a 3:1 split)

 

[carterm2]

sorry this might be discussed earlier and off current topic ..just having a shock looking at 2022 call option prices in RH.....its down by 99%...is this for real ? or everyone seeing such weird stuff due to SP inclusion activities ? didnt know where else to turn for reliable info. thanks

All my options on RH went to Zero value at close.

RH has a problem with options pricing... hopefully temp.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

• Indexes appear to have gotten the vast majority of the shares needed

Really? I thought there’s $20B+ still to buy

 

[MP3Mike]

Really? I thought there’s $20B+ still to buy

I doubt it. There were 222M shares traded today. Index funds only needed ~115M. So I would think that the index fund probably got almost all that they needed.

Benchmarked funds probably picked up a good amount too. Though they may want more over the next week, and if the price is below $695 I would expect them to Hoover the shares up to generate positive alpha compared to the S&P500.

It will be interesting to see how TSLA reacts to things now that there are at least ~115M fewer shares in the tradeable float.

And there will probably be margin calls for short sellers on Monday... (The short sellers lost another ~$1.9B today.)

 

[Buckminster]

Really? I thought there’s $20B+ still to buy

They managed to get an estimated 104.3m shares out of 130m according to Factchecking. If 104m only pushed the price up 5%, why would the final 25m? These can be spread out over time if needed.

 

[Singuy]

They managed to get an estimated 104.3m shares out of 130m according to Factchecking. If 104m only pushed the price up 5%, why would the final 25m? These can be spread out over time if needed.

104m shares didn't push the price up 5%. It seems that 695 was a set price agreed by hedge funds, big money, MM, and whoever is setting end of market orders. That's why a gigantic buy was exactly at 695 in a split second. I think of this almost as a company buy out. The buy out share price is pre determined to be 695, not more and not less.

 

[CaliBear1]

I’m living in Phuket, Thailand now and here the US market hours go from 9:30 pm to 4:00 a.m. It is very hard to sleep knowing TSLA volatility, but I drifted off for about the fourth time just minutes before the close and woke up later in the morning to see the spectacular finish. What a jolt! Just. Wow!

But, I must confess I’m a little frustrated today because I put in a limit order at 700 to sell a little less than half my shares to fund the purchase of an amazing sea view villa here. So close! I hope I wasn’t too greedy and will get a chance for the order to execute on Monday. I’m going to be disciplined and stick with my planned share number/price point order, but damn it will be annoying if the share price recedes on Monday and I let that five dollar delta stand between me and a TSLA-funded dream home. It’s not a Kruggerand-level purchase, but it sure is a nice villa ON an island!

Here’s hoping that those predicting some inclusion buying pressure remains come Monday are right and my order executes. Even if it doesn’t and 700 does not get breached for awhile, I will try to be philosophical about it and take comfort in the fact that other buying opportunities will certainly arise.

Happy Holidays and thanks to all of you in this special community for great information arbitrage, investing wisdom, timely humor and the psychological support to weather the volatility storms that have been such a significant part of the TSLA story to date.

Cheers,

Bill

 

[heltok]

So a few more days of fun daytrading where index funds finally are allowed to buy the stock with the highest return and great that they get to buy at ATH! Thanks for waiting for the price to appreciate before adding it S&P500! Then we are back to investing waiting for Q4 deliveries, Q4 ER, FSD public release, track Model Y MIC ramp, Giga Berlin stamping trials, Texas progress etc etc.

 

[FrankSG]

@JusRelax @MP3Mike @zach_

Who were the ones that looked at VOO's reported holdings at the end of this week and used it for some calculations? Can you point me to where you found it?

This is what I found on Vanguard's website:

And it has TSLA nearly perfectly balanced in accordance with the other top 4:

However, it states this on the website:

Institutional investors authorized to create Vanguard ETF® shares for the marketplace were required to deposit the following securities with Vanguard to purchase a creation unit of this ETF fund on the date specified. An authorized participant redeeming shared of this ETF fund on the same date would receive the same securities in the amounts shown.

In other words, these aren't VOO's actual holdings as of this date. Don't bother running calculations on these numbers, because these are supposed to be perfectly balanced now that TSLA is in the S&P.

 

[MXWing]

If ARK sold today in the cross, would it be in their trade book?

Conviction or bag holding? Monday will be exciting.

 

[MP3Mike]

If ARK sold today in the cross, would it be in their trade book?

Conviction or bag holding? Monday will be exciting.

I would think so.

 

[wipster]

@wipster wake up!!!

Hey! Woke up about 12:55 PM pst, anything exciting happen?

 

[kanweg]

Actual 30-yr CAGR on my house: 5%
Actual 3-yr CAGR on my TSLA: 150%
Would have payed handsomely to be houseless... !

you’re making homeless people look suspect.

Gordo says 2020 Tesla sales in Vatican City have fallen by 100% since last year. Apparently one of the Bishops took home delivery last year.

the sales of short shorts on the other hand. Wait, I don’t want to know.

 

[TravelFree]

I sold some shares at "market on the close" and it executed at $695. Thanks to all here for all your great wisdom. I never knew that was a thing until I learned it here. I buy and hold and that's about it.

No you're not a buy and hold. You are a Trader, admit it!

I'm sure you will be buying those shares back in the next week or two when the sell off happens.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Work has not stopped at Gigafactory Berlin

 

[46&2]

Vatican City is the smallest country in the world, with an area of 526,235.6 square yards.

Great country for people who like to do math and statistics

They might not have many Tesla cars sold there. But they surely have world's highest pope density at more than 2 per square kilometer...

 

[MXWing]

No you're not a buy and hold. You are a Trader, admit it!

I'm sure you will be buying those shares back in the next week or two when the sell off happens.

Totally possible to be fluid between hodler and trader.

Long term positions, short term positions, retirement account positions. Short puts, long defensive puts, long calls, short calls.

The only forbidden action is "dirty short selling".

 

[TravelFree]

So... when do they announce TSLA's inclusion into the DJIA?

In a few months when they become a $1T market cap.

 

[insaneoctane]

That could be fairly soon. The same company that chooses S&P components, essentially does the same for the DJIA.

Ever since the 2009 General Motors bankruptcy, the DJIA has not had a carmaker as a component. One is really needed to make the DJIA more reflective of large companies in American industry.

However, another stock split may be required. Unlike the market cap weighted S&P 500, the DJIA is weighted by share price. TSLA shares are currently priced far higher than any of the DJIA components. If it were in the DJIA at its current price, it would be too great of an influence on the average.

I would be willing to let Tesla multiply my shares to allow consideration for inclusion into the DJIA