Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Tesla Giga Berlin Has Received Permission for Partial Deforestation

Sensible decision, sand lizards and smooth snakes do not like deep forests, so will be found around the edges.

 

[SebastianR]

A reason for fund managers to put in a $695 LOC instead of MOC is to ensure the 46,000 $700 calls their market maker associates sold expired worthless. *Tinfoil hat off*

i guess that’s what’s called “risk management”... everyone was very focused on making sure the transaction is going well...

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon has been very quiet - just 2 retweets in 72 hours.

V11 in the next 5 days? - maybe he is doing the testing?

I suspect that we are in a "quiet period" where he can't talk about Tesla stuff that could impact stock. One Tesla employee said they were in a "Tesla mandated blackout period. Typically 14 days before end of quarter, lasting until 2 days after the earnings call." (They can't trade TSLA in their E*TRADE account during this period other than for taxes.)

 

[Curt Renz]

Forbes - this afternoon: Taking A Look At Biden’s Climate Plan For Cars And Trucks

Excerpts:

President-Elect Joe Biden has unveiled a plan for building a modern sustainable infrastructure and an equitable clean energy future. It’s a vision based largely on the assumption of a massive wave of investment in electric vehicles...

So given the Biden Administration’s will to boost EV fortunes, we can expect Biden to push for generous incentives on EVs alongside a rollback of Trump’s rollback (to 40 mpg) of Obama’s fuel economy standards (54.5 mpg)...

Tesla of course is the most famous brand. In the Tesla factory is the Cybertruck, where the single-motor version looks like a stylistic pickup, billed to come out in 2021 with a starting price of $40,000...

The long-haul semi-trailers are another step up. With 4 independent motors on rear axles, the Tesla Semi is aiming for an acceleration of 0-60 mph in 20 seconds, for a fully-loaded vehicle.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

For consideration over the weekend ...

TL : DW

In a really worse case scenario of TSLA being only worth $2500/share in 2030, the least it should be worth today is ~$800/share.

In a medium case scenario of TSLA value of $10K/share in 2030, the least it should be valued at today is ~$3200/share.

Worth the watch if you want to follow how Warren Redlich reaches these figures.

I'm as bullish as almost anyone here. Had never heard of this guy so figured I'ld give it a view. Had to turn of after 10 minutes or so.

What a bunch of made up numbers ignoring what's possible in real life.

2 million cars in 2023. Sure most of us believe that. ALL of them already deployed as robotaxis doing 100k miles each. In just over 2½ years time from now. Suuuure.

35 million cars in 2030. Even Elon says 20 million.

100 million Tesla cars on the road in 2030. ALL of them robottaxis doing 100k miles a year. No. Not gonna happen.

$3 trillion profit??? With a modest 20x earnings that would make a $60 trillion company?!?!?

Even ignoring the wildly exaggerated number of robotaxis he then thinks Tesla can run this network with a 800% profit margin per driven mile. Totally ignoring that any business with those kind of marginals will have lots of competition coming. It doesn't matter if competitors cars are half as good and their cost of operation is twice Teslas. They would still make a killing and steal Teslas traffic by just lowering the price while making 200% profit. Of course then Tesla would lower their price. But then they wouldn't have 800% profit margins. And so on until profit margins are realistic.

Seriously. Be optimistic. But even if in the end no one can copy Teslas autonomy with lidar and has to start from scratch some companies will copy Teslas model when it's proven and Tesla will not have a monopoly running robotaxis for more than a couple of years.

I don't know. Maybe he comes to his sense further along in his video but the start is so out of tune with reality I'm not gonna bother.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Friendly reminder, if you are considering investing money in a S&P 500 tracking fund now that Tesla is included (to diversify, 401k doesnt allow stocks, etc) consider buying SPYX, which is like SPY minus fossil fuel companies.

 

[Krugerrand]

Weekend/OT, from NPR, warning, contains poetry.

Opinion: T'was The Night Before Christmas in 2020

T'was the night before Christmas, and all o'er the house
Stirred the clicking - most frantic - of every mouse
All the stockings were hung by the TV with flair
But children played on apps in their rooms without care
Sneaking smart-phones and laptops right into their beds
While visions of going viral danced in their heads
When out on the street there arose such a clatter
I sprang from my bed to see what was the matter
When what to my wandering eyes did appear
An electric sleigh, without any reindeer

"Self-driving" said the driver, so lively and quick
I knew from his TikToks it must be St. Nick
"I don't strew CO2," he said, "on glaciers and meadows
So my polar bear friends can hang onto their ice floes."
He had a snow-white goatee, and six-pack of a belly
"I just couldn't go on like a bowl full of jelly.
Now I eat fruits and veggies, meditate, and do yoga
And don't just watch e-sports—Elf Sports--on the sofa."

And after our chitchat he went straight to work,
And filled all the stockings with candies and merch
Then laying his finger aside of his nose,
And giving a nod, he told me, "Lord knows
2020's been filled with sorrow and stresses
With Covid, job loss, and protesting injustice.
We miss those we loved, who are no longer here
Handshakes, hugs, friendships, and moments of cheer.
Santa's whole workshop is now Work from Home
I call elves for IT help, they ask, 'Safari or Chrome?'
I tell them of toys, and they say, 'You're on mute!'
I've got grey sweatpants on 'neath the top of my suit.
Family and friends can't gather this season
We miss their warm smiles, but we all know the reason.
The year has been tough, but still at each turn
People have become heroes, and helped us to learn:
That even across social distanced divides
we are all essential workers in each other's lives.
So thanks to doctors! To nurses! Delivery crews!
Farmers and pharmacists, bus drivers too!
Thanks to med techs, and scientists in laboratories
Those in clinical trials, and the great Dr. Fauci!"

Poetry.

 

[Curt Renz]

NPR - this afternoon: Biden Unveils His Climate Team, Promising To Fight 'With The Urgency It Demands'

Excerpt:

President-elect Joe Biden formally introduced his climate team on Saturday, saying that the people he has selected will lead his administration's "ambitious plan to address the existential threat of our time, climate change."

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Forbes - this afternoon: Taking A Look At Biden’s Climate Plan For Cars And Trucks

Excerpts:

President-Elect Joe Biden has unveiled a plan for building a modern sustainable infrastructure and an equitable clean energy future. It’s a vision based largely on the assumption of a massive wave of investment in electric vehicles...

So given the Biden Administration’s will to boost EV fortunes, we can expect Biden to push for generous incentives on EVs alongside a rollback of Trump’s rollback (to 40 mpg) of Obama’s fuel economy standards (54.5 mpg)...

Tesla of course is the most famous brand. In the Tesla factory is the Cybertruck, where the single-motor version looks like a stylistic pickup, billed to come out in 2021 with a starting price of $40,000...

The long-haul semi-trailers are another step up. With 4 independent motors on rear axles, the Tesla Semi is aiming for an acceleration of 0-60 mph in 20 seconds, for a fully-loaded vehicle.

Imagine thinking Biden doesn't take marching orders from the UAW and won't completely pretend Tesla doesn't exist while showering money and subsidies on GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler. No one should look to any President if they are with Tesla, because both the Democrats and Republicans are owned by the oil companies, legacy auto, and mainstream media.

 

[Runarbt]

Even ignoring the wildly exaggerated number of robotaxis he then thinks Tesla can run this network with a 800% profit margin per driven mile. Totally ignoring that any business with those kind of marginals will have lots of competition coming. It doesn't matter if competitors cars are half as good and their cost of operation is twice Teslas.

Well - you ignore than it isnt as simple as competition just pop up.

If Tesla solve FSD - they have won. There wont be a magical appearance of competition, just because Tesla make a bunch of money.

800% margin - is due to no driver.

Competition might be Uber drivers in EVs.. let them come. They have no chance of competing with Tesla Robotaxis as their drivers still need to eat and sleep. Waymo might solve a few cities - their cars are way expensive and limited in numbers.

Tesla has volume - cars, driven miles, brand name..

Waymo and its peers are no real competition to Tesla, just as GM, Ford and VW dont stand a chance in hell with regards to kill Tesla in the EV race.

When Tesla have a robotaxi fleet world wide, they will own the market, Robotaxi will equal Tesla.
Waymo may be a local niche player which will struggle with margins.

 

[kanweg]

Forbes - this afternoon: Taking A Look At Biden’s Climate Plan For Cars And Trucks
.

The Forbes article shows a graph on the uptake in various countries. A clearer version is in the executive summary of this report to which Forbes links. https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/files/bitre-report-151.pdf

I think that with respect to the percentage of BEV uptake in the Netherlands the graph didn’t age well . Let’s hope that they underestimated the rate of change for more countries. (We’re in a bit of a AGW pickle)

 

[ggr]

$TSLA passed 200x IPO price at close yesterday, just short of 10.5 years after IPO on June 29, 2010.
10 Years Since Tesla's IPO: The Electric Vehicle Maker's Biggest Moments

 

[BigPeePee]

I'm as bullish as almost anyone here. Had never heard of this guy so figured I'ld give it a view. Had to turn of after 10 minutes or so.

What a bunch of made up numbers ignoring what's possible in real life.

2 million cars in 2023. Sure most of us believe that. ALL of them already deployed as robotaxis doing 100k miles each. In just over 2½ years time from now. Suuuure.

35 million cars in 2030. Even Elon says 20 million.

100 million Tesla cars on the road in 2030. ALL of them robottaxis doing 100k miles a year. No. Not gonna happen.

$3 trillion profit??? With a modest 20x earnings that would make a $60 trillion company?!?!?

Even ignoring the wildly exaggerated number of robotaxis he then thinks Tesla can run this network with a 800% profit margin per driven mile. Totally ignoring that any business with those kind of marginals will have lots of competition coming. It doesn't matter if competitors cars are half as good and their cost of operation is twice Teslas. They would still make a killing and steal Teslas traffic by just lowering the price while making 200% profit. Of course then Tesla would lower their price. But then they wouldn't have 800% profit margins. And so on until profit margins are realistic.

Seriously. Be optimistic. But even if in the end no one can copy Teslas autonomy with lidar and has to start from scratch some companies will copy Teslas model when it's proven and Tesla will not have a monopoly running robotaxis for more than a couple of years.

I don't know. Maybe he comes to his sense further along in his video but the start is so out of tune with reality I'm not gonna bother.

I also think his numbers are too optimistic.
People are making lofty projections to justify their recent TSLA investment. This is now a $650 billion company. How much further do people think it will go? Tesla is a much safer investment now with boomers looking to get in. The risk is no longer there. It's obvious to everyone that Tesla will be the #1 auto manufacturer in the world and will have a near monopoly on robotaxis. The market is already pricing some of that in.
I think if you're expecting a 6-8X increase with dividends in the future, that is fine. Anyone expecting a 50X increase from here should look elsewhere.

A 50-100X investment is when everyone thinks the company will go bankrupt. You don't get 50-100X returns when you invest in something everyone thinks will succeed.

 

[Singuy]

I'm as bullish as almost anyone here. Had never heard of this guy so figured I'ld give it a view. Had to turn of after 10 minutes or so.

What a bunch of made up numbers ignoring what's possible in real life.

2 million cars in 2023. Sure most of us believe that. ALL of them already deployed as robotaxis doing 100k miles each. In just over 2½ years time from now. Suuuure.

35 million cars in 2030. Even Elon says 20 million.

100 million Tesla cars on the road in 2030. ALL of them robottaxis doing 100k miles a year. No. Not gonna happen.

$3 trillion profit??? With a modest 20x earnings that would make a $60 trillion company?!?!?

Even ignoring the wildly exaggerated number of robotaxis he then thinks Tesla can run this network with a 800% profit margin per driven mile. Totally ignoring that any business with those kind of marginals will have lots of competition coming. It doesn't matter if competitors cars are half as good and their cost of operation is twice Teslas. They would still make a killing and steal Teslas traffic by just lowering the price while making 200% profit. Of course then Tesla would lower their price. But then they wouldn't have 800% profit margins. And so on until profit margins are realistic.

Seriously. Be optimistic. But even if in the end no one can copy Teslas autonomy with lidar and has to start from scratch some companies will copy Teslas model when it's proven and Tesla will not have a monopoly running robotaxis for more than a couple of years.

I don't know. Maybe he comes to his sense further along in his video but the start is so out of tune with reality I'm not gonna bother.

His numbers are out there, but if Tesla solves FSD then it's over. The competition even without lidar will be 20-40% more expensive than a Tesla that time. So essentially there will be an unlimited demand for Teslas if FSD is solved as everyone and their mothers would want to buy one. Uber, Lyft, everyone and anyone with a ride hailing program will throw so much cash at Tesla just to flip their fleet asap. So the first few years Tesla will have unlimited demand, and as competition comes online, Tesla will continue to have unlimited demand as it's cheaper for the operator. As long as battery production keep up, Tesla will try to pump cars out with single casting/increase factory production rate by 10-100x as much as they can. So the boom is not just from Tesla's own ride hailing, but it's from every facet of the company.

That said, I only look at bullish outlook WITHOUT FSD because FSD may be a pipe dream even with the current progress. Maybe Tesla + everyone is on the wrong path and FSD is just not possible...ever. Who knows..but I generally like to bet on sure capabilities vs something that doesn't exist(exist being robotaxies post regulatory approval).

 

[jeewee3000]

One may argue that these are the rules, and rules must be followed, and that Tesla should be more careful in following them, but lets be honest, these particular rules are mostly idiotic, unnecessary, often self-contradicting, and completely anti-innovation.

No. Just no. You don't know what you're talking about.

 

[BigPeePee]

His numbers are out there, but if Tesla solves FSD then it's over. The competition even without lidar will be 20-40% more expensive than a Tesla that time. So essentially there will be an unlimited demand for Teslas if FSD is solved as everyone and their mothers would want to buy one. Uber, Lyft, everyone and anyone with a ride hailing program will throw so much cash at Tesla just to flip their fleet asap. So the first few years Tesla will have unlimited demand, and as competition comes online, Tesla will continue to have unlimited demand as it's cheaper for the operator. As long as battery production keep up, Tesla will try to pump cars out with single casting/increase factory production rate by 10-100x as much as they can. So the boom is not just from Tesla's own ride hailing, but it's from every facet of the company.

That said, I only look at bullish outlook WITHOUT FSD because FSD may be a pipe dream even with the current progress. Maybe Tesla + everyone is on the wrong path and FSD is just not possible...ever. Who knows..but I generally like to bet on sure capabilities vs something that doesn't exist(exist being robotaxies post regulatory approval).

If FSD is not possible, Tesla will fall 70% minimum. Tesla's valuation is dependent on them solving FSD.

Edit: LOL at the disagrees. Where am I wrong? If Tesla doesn't have FSD, then they're just another car company with a 6X PE ratio.

 

[Runarbt]

His numbers are out there, but if Tesla solves FSD then it's over. The competition even without lidar will be 20-40% more expensive than a Tesla that time. So essentially there will be an unlimited demand for Teslas if FSD is solved as everyone and their mothers would want to buy one. Uber, Lyft, everyone and anyone with a ride hailing program will throw so much cash at Tesla just to flip their fleet asap. So the first few years Tesla will have unlimited demand, and as competition comes online, Tesla will continue to have unlimited demand as it's cheaper for the operator. As long as battery production keep up, Tesla will try to pump cars out with single casting/increase factory production rate by 10-100x as much as they can. So the boom is not just from Tesla's own ride hailing, but it's from every facet of the company.

That said, I only look at bullish outlook WITHOUT FSD because FSD may be a pipe dream even with the current progress. Maybe Tesla + everyone is on the wrong path and FSD is just not possible...ever. Who knows..but I generally like to bet on sure capabilities vs something that doesn't exist(exist being robotaxies post regulatory approval).

Tesla wont allow Uber or Lyft to use their Robotaxi FSD functions.

You can have a personal licensed FSD, drive the car yourself - or let it drive for Tesla Autonomy Robotaxi fleet, along with Tesla owned cars.

Why would Tesla share the profit with Uber or Lyft, when they can do it themselves and take all the profit? ;-) They wont.

 

[Todd Burch]

I can see it now "Demand in Vatican City is 0...Tesla has sold 0 cars in Vatican City...This is a busted growth story"

Vatican City is the smallest country in the world, with an area of 526,235.6 square yards.

There is a nice service center right next to the Sistine Chapel though.

 

[EVMeister]

Edit: LOL at the disagrees. Where am I wrong? If Tesla doesn't have FSD, then they're just another car company with a 6X PE ratio.

You've just explained where you're wrong, congratulations.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If FSD is not possible, Tesla will fall 70% minimum. Tesla's valuation is dependent on them solving FSD.

Edit: LOL at the disagrees. Where am I wrong? If Tesla doesn't have FSD, then they're just another car company with a 6X PE ratio.

So much wrong with this statement and I would say if you really believe what you just wrote....you either have not done nearly enough research into the multiple markets Tesla is disrupting, how Tesla has been and is continuing to achieve margins that are exponentially higher than their competitors, or just basic valuation of a company based on forward P/E metrics, sales to price ratio's, etc...

I would suggest you do a lot of due diligence and research right now because you're bound to make some very costly financial mistakes with that lack of information