Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeAtkinson]

Who's to say what could happen on that front? The context is a ten year span. Any new model / iteration could easily be designed and brought to market in a couple of years.

There could also be yet another business branch for Tesla, providing the resources to help others build factories using Tesla's proven strategy and licensed technology. A supervisory role where Tesla essentially provides Tech Support for factory design and construction, for a fee.

Sure, anything like that is possible, but that does not change the fact that castings with structural batteries cannot just be supplied by Tesla to other OEMs like they could with a skateboard, they will have to do a joint design which is harder and more time consuming.

 

[wnorris]

Nice article in Barron's on the psychology of investing. Relevant to those trying to determine what to do regarding TSLA.

Here’s Some Investment Advice From Psychologist and Poker Star Maria Konnikova: Focus on Your Decision-Making Process

"Poker definitely teaches you that players who are too active, who make too many decisions, or play too many hands because they’re bored…they tend to lose money. People tend to think that doing something is better than doing nothing, and that activity means productivity. Oftentimes the best thing to do is to do nothing, but it has to be a choice. It can’t be because of inertia or because you’re scared or because you don’t know what to do."

 

[aubreymcfato]

Am I naive to think that, with index buying tens of millions of shares at 695, this will be seen as a new floor in the future?

 

[Maarten]

Nice article in Barron's on the psychology of investing. Relevant to those trying to determine what to do regarding TSLA.

Here’s Some Investment Advice From Psychologist and Poker Star Maria Konnikova: Focus on Your Decision-Making Process

"Poker definitely teaches you that players who are too active, who make too many decisions, or play too many hands because they’re bored…they tend to lose money. People tend to think that doing something is better than doing nothing, and that activity means productivity. Oftentimes the best thing to do is to do nothing, but it has to be a choice. It can’t be because of inertia or because you’re scared or because you don’t know what to do."

I am still holding TSLA. Doing nothing.
Never knew I was playing great poker.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Am I naive to think that, with index buying tens of millions of shares at 695, this will be seen as a new floor in the future?

I would not think TSLA has any inherent floor or ceiling, simply because it's always been a momentum stock which trades on sentiment.

Everyone who isn't a TSLA shareholder likes to scream at the top of their lungs that the company currently sports a trailing P/E of 1,300 or thereabouts and there is no fundamentals analysis where the company is mathematically anything resembling a value stock or whatever it is that the Bogleheads and the acolytes of Benjamin Graham like to harp on. So TSLA's "fair value" is whatever the balance of buyers and sellers think it is today, and we all know from the last 10 years that this balance can shift very abruptly with dramatic results.

So I'll just pull a Morgan Stanley here and say the floor is probably $0 and the ceiling is probably infinity and I can reasonably expect that the SP will definitely be between zero and infinity for the next 50 years.

 

[CLK350]

Hey guys. Is the Twitter use @SquawkSquare a member on here? I've been actively following him last week while day trading Tesla. While not flawless, he seems particularly skilled at calling the tops and bottoms. I'd love to learn from him. Thanks!

p.s. My sister picked up her Model Y and my Tesla short shorts came in, all on S&P day.

Well, good for you - let us know in another year how you fare - ths apparent success in calling tops and bottoms is very much the classical statistical fallacy: out of tons of Tweeters calling tops and bottoms, a few will appear to be right 90% of the time.
AND, unless you have access to proprietary data or even better have a way to move the markets with faked buy /sell orders posted and removed right before execution, you will NOT beat the algos.

In a rising market a lot of folks think of themselves as geniuses ... good thing Tesla is a long way before its flow ebbs, but this reminds me of MABMAB who had some success, and got help from Paydirt76 and his options thread .. then went on to *disparage* Paydirt76, who knows why .. Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide.. I wonder what's going on in MABMAB's head .. well it reminds me to ignore him. O and I see he was already banned once .. it's thanks to people like him that we probably lost great members like nafnlaus etc

Re " Tesla investors" I have had a hard time stopping (couldn't, so just let it go) the couple friends whow I took pains to convince and invest part of their portfolio in TSLA. Can't blame them I went through that phase many years ago. But durn .. if you really want to "time TSLA" you have to have an in depth understanding and knowledge of technical analysis AND other forces ... all of which is graceully provided free of charge by PapaFox and Artful Dodger

 

[UkNorthampton]

Nice...
View attachment 619086

I apologise to all for yesterday's figure of 4281 for 3 EU/EEA countries reporting daily sales

My source (eu-evs.com) seems to be accelerating too fast to keep up...

[Edit: ID3 up 800 in a day as well, so congrats to VW]

I'll add its predictor for December (light stacked bar)

 

[hobbes]

Am I naive to think that, with index buying tens of millions of shares at 695, this will be seen as a new floor in the future?

Meta-question: If I give you a like, does that mean I think you´re naive of does it mean 695 will be a floor ?

I posted something along those lines yesterday, so I tend to agree with the floor part. But just an educated guess.

 

[kanweg]

I apologise to all for yesterday's figure of 4281 for 3 EU/EEA countries reporting daily sales

My source (eu-evs.com) seems to be accelerating too fast to keep up...

[Edit: ID3 up 800 in a day as well, so congrats to VW]

View attachment 619449

I'll add its predictor for December (light stacked bar)

View attachment 619450

The lower graph is Tesla only?

 

[printf42]

FSD subscription finally confirmed:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1340592138829099009?s=21

Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.

My personal prediction is, this is the point where FSD pricing starts none linear appreciation.

 

[Tslynk67]

Obviously well done on your success, but I would just like to temper this conversation with the reality that you are an exception to the rule and the (silent!) majority who try to trade as you have manage to actually lose money, many would have turned that 3.5k to zero. Just for any newbies who think it's easy... Do your homework extensively before jumping into such trading and if in doubt just HODL!

Rule for noobs - buy LEAPS on irrationally low stock prices and crushed IV. Not guaranteed to bring success, but the odds are in your favour.

And yes, don't play with options unless you're prepared to lose your premiums, which I did for a good year before I got some clue what was going on...

And be prepared to loose sleep too.

 

[Tslynk67]

My theory: the big drop centered around 3:30 was an effect of the indexers selling their 1.5% of other holdings which were to be replaced by TSLA. They have to raise the cash before they buy at the closing cross.

This massive selling confuses the algobots, which in response started selling everything indiscriminately, including TSLA, like a mini flash crash. You can see it in QQQ and other indexes. At 3:50, indexers stop selling and place their closing cross orders. Bots respond accordingly. TSLA is not the only stock with a sudden price jump in the last minutes.

At least seems logical to me.

A couple of folks also pointed-out that RH also sells off OTM calls around this time too, so maybe a combination of actions, plus no doubt spooked some retail speculators to bail-out as well.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1340592138829099009?s=21

Edit: What @printf42 said...

 

[lascavarian]

FSD subscription finally confirmed:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1340592138829099009?s=21

My personal prediction is, this is the point where FSD pricing starts none linear appreciation.

I consider a portion of SP reflects the value of FSD in the form of a wager on success. EM has said from early days that the requirement was to solve “vision”.

The 4d SW rewrite has delivered a form of 3D real-time general vision that the limited beta is confirming. This is obvious to the careful observer/investor.

Even Cringely sees it.

I, Cringely | on technology

I consider FSD/vision to be part of the weight of deliberation resulting in S&P inclusion.

EM confirming a subscription product for FSD begins a new investment model not seen before in the form of a generalized neural net service deliverable on demand to the public. This may be the first but there will be many more.

The full impact of this is only partially priced in IMO because it is a bit hard to comprehend.

 

[BLSmith2112]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1339930055292628992

Shouted out TMC on his video! Who's this on here? Phone calls from ex-girlfriends, new girlfriends and future girlfriends in 3....2......1

Hello ladies [Insert smooth talker voice here]. That would be me, I usually lurk in the shadows but this time my big mouth got my story shared by Kimbal and liked by Musk. What a simulation.

Peace and Love y’all. Thanks for the nice comments. Over 1.4 million people saw that. I never shared anything with even my closest friends or family, much less the entire world. Needless to say it’s been a fun, and yeah a bit nerve racking week. I want to regret ever saying anything but I can’t deny it’s been a fun 15 minutes of fame.

 

[dw4ngg]

Hello ladies [Insert smooth talker voice here]. That would be me, I usually lurk in the shadows but this time my big mouth got my story shared by Kimbal and liked by Musk. What a simulation.

The legend is here!! Howdy sir, from texas

have u been stalked by any neighbors yet?

 

[BLSmith2112]

The legend is here!! Howdy sir, from texas

have u been stalked by any neighbors yet?

My dads from Texas! Love it there. interestingly other than a few friends from high school (graduated 15 years ago) reaching out to congratulate me, it’s been relatively quiet, with the exception of my parents dancing in the middle of the living room that their son had “made it,” it’s a weird feeling though, I feel like I am like only a fraction of the way there and this is all premature haha.

 

[Tslynk67]

I've mentioned this before, but feel compelled to repeat it. Fun fact, this time last year I held 10x c650 Jan 15th 21 strikes, that cost $1 per contract, $1000 total premium

I offloaded these in January & February, partly due to not having a clue what I was doing, but I also got spooked by the US/Iran flair-up at the time, I netted around $130k, which is pretty decent, and built the foundation for the rest of the year's successful trading

However, and here's the rub, had I held, they would trade now at $2.8m , same story for the 10x June $1400's I bought in the C19 dip and sold three weeks later for 3x the price - a nice trade, eh? Yes, but those positions would currently be valued at ~$2.2m

So yeah, quite a bit left on the table there Hindsight's a bummer... but one can learn from it. I often replay old trades, not to depress myself, or regret, but to try and make better choices the next time.

Looks like 10k open interest in those $130's still, I know a few of us here bought them, hope some held!

Edit: I was a factor of two too high (damn that split), now adapted

 

[Christine69420]

Tesla may build another battery pack way way above the arctic circle if they win the bidding process for a large battery storage system in the Norwegian town of Longyearbyen on the Svalbard archipelago.

The budget for this project is 50 mill kroner (NOK) or $5,800,000 and the project is expected to be completed within two years.

Svalbard - Wikipedia is located around the midway between the North Pole and Norway - the dark green area here:

It has a population of around 3000 people and most of them live in Longyearbyen:

Svalbard is cold cold cold and filled with polar bears. Today the electricity on Svalbard come from an old coal power plant. Discussions are going on about how to get rid of that. Natural gas or a long power cable from the mainland are the two main options discussed.

Source in Norwegian: Svalbard får Norges største batterier: Skal sikre energiforsyningen til Longyearbyen

 

[Green Pete]

Tesla may build another battery pack way way above the arctic circle if they win the bidding process for a large battery storage system in the Norwegian town of Longyearbyen on the Svalbard archipelago.

The budget for this project is 50 mill kroner (NOK) or $5,800,000 and the project is expected to be completed within two years.

Svalbard - Wikipedia is located around the midway between the North Pole and Norway - the dark green area here:
View attachment 619457

It has a population of around 3000 people and most of them live in Longyearbyen:
View attachment 619458

Svalbard is cold cold cold and filled with polar bears. Today the electricity on Svalbard come from an old coal power plant. Discussions are going on about how to get rid of that. Natural gas or a long power cable from the mainland are the two main options discussed.

Source in Norwegian: Svalbard får Norges største batterier: Skal sikre energiforsyningen til Longyearbyen

I hear the polar bears there wear armor.

I've heard dust up there is pretty magical as well. I vote power the batteries with that.

On a more serious note I would love to hear about the economics of this project, like ROI on the battery pack and such. I can't read Norwegian or have a membership to that site.

I'm so excited to see Tesla energy ramp up. Seeing it in a place like this tho where there is no sun in interesting.