Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Tesla Bulls Double Down as Stock Reaches New Heights
Tesla Bulls Double Down as Stock Reaches New Heights
-WSJ

“It is nutty horrible being short something that quadruples,” said John Hempton, the founder of Bronte Capital, a hedge fund in Australia that oversees about $1 billion in assets. He closed his position earlier in the year ahead of an August stock split. “The valuation is absurd. But the holders are also insane.”

edit: Vincent Wu is interviewed in the article

Well I'm committed...

 

[Rammstein]

You may find that some people view you differently once they become aware of your new wealth. Some will be jealous, others fearful, and hopefully some s

Their fear will sometimes manifest itself in very different ways. Even though you may not have changed, some people feel that your wealth somehow spotlights their failures, and you can become a specific or inadvertent target if their resultant emotions.

This is an interesting comment. I have a friend who does wealth management as his job. Last 2 weeks he has lashed out on me for comments that I’ve made that I really don’t think I was out of line. I tell others what happened and they think he has over reacted. I’ve thought about dropping him as a friend before because of his temper. The issue is he is part of my friend group and we all hangout together. I’m definitely going to limit my interaction with him. He knows I’ve done well with Tesla and I wonder if something subconscious going on there.

Sorry for the kind of off topic.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

18 posts on a subject only slightly linked to TSLA can now be found in the thread EV advertising in the South

 

[Tslynk67]

What is everyone’s thoughts on Troys 180K deliveries estimate?

He does great work, last quarter he overshot by 3-4K I believe. Too bad we are so very close to guidance, if he overshot by 3-4K we won’t make guidance. I see why Elon sent his email. I personally think it matters little, but FUD storm would be not so pretty. Gordon would get a hard on lol

I hope they pull it off.
you guys follow Morten on Twitter? Great ship analysis. Norway going great

Rob Mauer's forecast is even higher, I think Troy's low-balling. It's really looking like a perfect storm - 4 M3 available in Belgium only, zero MS, MX - if anything, real big demand problem I think, people are too demanding!

Edit: I just checked Tesla Norway, looks like a lot of cars available from stock, but they're ALL ex-demo, every single one!!

 

[SarahsDad]

Playing dead since 2013. I started out with this $5,000 investment. Hardest part is resisting the urge to sell after big dips (sometimes >50%) over the years. Commit and stay strong!

 

[pz1975]

Tesla Bulls Double Down as Stock Reaches New Heights
Tesla Bulls Double Down as Stock Reaches New Heights
-WSJ

“It is nutty horrible being short something that quadruples,” said John Hempton, the founder of Bronte Capital, a hedge fund in Australia that oversees about $1 billion in assets. He closed his position earlier in the year ahead of an August stock split. “The valuation is absurd. But the holders are also insane.”

edit: Vincent Wu is interviewed in the article

Haha this great! We here are all insane according to this idiot. It’s fun being insane sitting on a billion dollars+ in profits collectively.

Maybe in tribute to this poignant quote, we should rename this thread the “TSLA Insane Asylum”!

 

[Knightshade]

Of course, Elon is referring to net profits, not gross profits (margin).

I mean.. obviously?

Gross profit margins have been industry leading for years now (20% plus), net ones have only (relatively recently) been above 0. Elon was making it clear to investors those are going to REMAIN low, because they'd rather plough money back into the company for both growth and making their products more affordable to advance the mission.

Thus the folks who were suggesting there's obscenely large net profits coming Real Soon Now continue to not listen to Elons actual words.

Instead continued production growth, tech and manufacturing advancement, and more available (both in numbers and cost to customer) products are coming.

If you have been following the FSD Beta rollout, you would have realized that FSD is SOLVED

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

It's unquestionably the most advanced generalized self-driving system out there- it's absolutely not "solved" yet.

If it were they wouldn't need Dojo in the first place and it'd be deployed as L5 to everyone, especially it'd be deployed to other countries (and of course the US states it's not out in even beta yet)- and the company would be fully recognizing FSD revenue- none of those are the case.

Also if it were actually solved the stock price would have at least one extra zero on it. It's that massive a thing for whomever actually "solves" it- ideally that's Tesla, but not yet.


Instead what we are seeing in the FSD beta is a version of the software trying to be feature complete- which is a different term, and Elon has called out the difference a number of times.

Essentially Feature Complete means zero intervention drives are possible.

Solved means they're expected every time.

Feature complete is likely good enough for Tesla to recognize deferred revenue from at least those who bought FSD after roughly March 2019, but probably not good enough for them to recognize that revenue from those who bought before that and were promised a much more finished version as part of the purchase.

FSD subscription finally confirmed:

This was confirmed a good while back- it's not new news and wasn't unconfirmed.

Elon mentioned it in the Q1 earnings call- though he said "towards the end of the year" and obviously that has slipped into next year now (and has mentioned it a few other times since then)

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observer

Ritholz & Brown riff on Tesla. Someone else moved their price target from $80 to $90 bucks a share. Just kick the tires. . . .

Analysts that base their cars with tires are right on the money. Back to the past ~ back to the future De Lorain cars, they failed.

From my simple side of life. For CEOs of GM and Toyota to proclaim there are too many cooks in the kitchen ~ tells me their sales are not only hurting, traditionalists are losing to Tesla.

GM and Toyota will continue to scream about the kitchen until they build and pump fossil fuels at the pump. Then they must build and pump fossil fuels (oil) from Mother Earth. Then they must confirm that fossil fuels are renewable ~ yes, there are believers of that theory.

Bottom line for any analysts that stand tall, if your numbers are based on the tires, then you paid too much for your education. My education, street education (49th and get the hell out of the way), involved hoping the gallon of gas would get me from the new car sales lot to a independent gas station; and paying extra for a radio. Bought and later installed in my ‘84 brand new Volvo station wagon. We did get a full tank of gas to get us from Sweden, onto the boat, and finding a gas station that took funny money for that country before we hit Germany where our fuel coupons took over. FYI ~ later, our Blaupunkt radio broke while traveling/driving around England with Bruce Springsteen’s “Born in the USA” played continually because we could not get it to eject.

Most analysts are vomiting publicly what they do not know, it hopes that they will strike it rich; not so they save you a dime. Traditional automakers are crying publicly because their pocket book is molding.

Does GM or Toyota make Powerwalls ~ oh yeah, fossil fuel generators

 

[Prunesquallor]

Playing dead since 2013. I started out with this $5,000 investment. Hardest part is resisting the urge to sell after big dips (sometimes >50%) over the years. Commit and stay strong!



View attachment 619526

If taxes on unrealized gains ever becomes a thing, we are all so hosed...

 

[CHGolferJim]

After seeing first hand how they managed this inclusion not sure I am buying any S & P index funds.

I get passive investing but they are not managing this for their investors. Do they think their investors even know what tracking error is?

This is basically what they did with TSLA.

-Delay a decision in July/August that allowed the stock price to further run up.
-Tell everyone weeks ahead of time it was happening.
-Bought everything together at an all time high price. I guess they never heard of dollar cost averaging.
-Allowed others to profit from the move.

All this to avoid tracking error?

There were other ways this could have been managed. After seeing how they managed this I give them a failing grade.

Big Fat F.

Really, imagine what the S&P500 result would have been for 2020 if they’d admitted TSLA even 6 months ago. Probably would have increased money flows over 50%.

 

[BLSmith2112]

You may find that some people view you differently once they become aware of your new wealth. Some will be jealous, others fearful, and hopefully some supportive.

Their fear will sometimes manifest itself in very different ways. Even though you may not have changed, some people feel that your wealth somehow spotlights their failures, and you can become a specific or inadvertent target if their resultant emotions.

Thank you for the advice, I will heed it. One of the defenses I keep repeating to everybody is that the money is locked up in untouchable for many years, I know that really is not going to change anything but I’d like to think it slows people down in thinking that I’m not gonna go out and spend it on literally anything while some struggle to make ends meet. I’ve literally told everybody that if my house burns down tomorrow, or if I find myself with a big hospital bill, I would get an apartment or a loan and not use any of this investment for anything other accrue value over the next several years.

So far, the mental toll and my gut is telling me this probably wasn’t worth it even though there have not been any obvious negative consequences thus far, I am no longer on the same playing field is any of my family or friends which is pretty isolating when everyone knows it. On the other hand it was also isolating that I could not talk to anybody IRL, that I had to lead this secret life where I lied to people about financial matters, and that was almost as worse to me. I’ve traded one form of isolation to another form of isolation, let’s see if this door leads to greener pastures. sorry mods for the OT rant.

 

[JustMe]

If taxes on unrealized gains ever becomes a thing, we are all so hosed...

What if you never look at your account so you don’t realize what your gains have been?

 

[hobbes]

Just found this via reddit, looks like Moss Landing MegaPack site is 70-80% done. Wonder if they might finish this before the end of the year which might give some extra revenue for Q4... Originally was supposed to come online in 2021.

 

[bkp_duke]

Thank you for the advice, I will heed it. One of the defenses I keep repeating to everybody is that the money is locked up in untouchable for many years, I know that really is not going to change anything but I’d like to think it slows people down in thinking that I’m not gonna go out and spend it on literally anything while some struggle to make ends meet. I’ve literally told everybody that if my house burns down tomorrow, or if I find myself with a big hospital bill, I would get an apartment or a loan and not use any of this investment for anything other accrue value over the next several years.

So far, the mental toll and my gut is telling me this probably wasn’t worth it even though there have not been any obvious negative consequences thus far, I am no longer on the same playing field is any of my family or friends which is pretty isolating when everyone knows it. On the other hand it was also isolating that I could not talk to anybody IRL, that I had to lead this secret life where I lied to people about financial matters, and that was almost as worse to me. I’ve traded one form of isolation to another form of isolation, let’s see if this door leads to greener pastures. sorry mods for the OT rant.

Hopefully some of your family will take you as inspiration to invest and aim to follow in the footsteps to achieve what you have shown is possible.

 

[Causalien]

This is an interesting comment. I have a friend who does wealth management as his job. Last 2 weeks he has lashed out on me for comments that I’ve made that I really don’t think I was out of line. I tell others what happened and they think he has over reacted. I’ve thought about dropping him as a friend before because of his temper. The issue is he is part of my friend group and we all hangout together. I’m definitely going to limit my interaction with him. He knows I’ve done well with Tesla and I wonder if something subconscious going on there.

Sorry for the kind of off topic.

Chuckled a bit at everyone.My humble advice which most ppl will discard anyway cause advices are worthless. Develop a vesting routines to flush out ppl.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So, summed up; he’s about to discover whom are true friends.

Buddies will tell you what you want to hear...Real Friends will tell you the truth. I admit, wealth brings a lot of hatred, jealousy, and even relatives out of the woodwork..im just glad that my 'other' (TMC) family are 99% wealthier than me so they accept me for who i am!

 

[2daMoon]

Well I'm committed...

People have been saying that I should be committed, for years.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This is an interesting comment. I have a friend who does wealth management as his job. Last 2 weeks he has lashed out on me for comments that I’ve made that I really don’t think I was out of line. I tell others what happened and they think he has over reacted. I’ve thought about dropping him as a friend before because of his temper. The issue is he is part of my friend group and we all hangout together. I’m definitely going to limit my interaction with him. He knows I’ve done well with Tesla and I wonder if something subconscious going on there.

Sorry for the kind of off topic.

He's just exercising his 'fiduciary responsibilty'....and......was probably short on $TSLA , regrets not buying it when you told him to, or just a jealous moth that you are doing better than he is.

 

[SebastianR]

On the other hand it was also isolating that I could not talk to anybody IRL, that I had to lead this secret life where I lied to people about financial matters, and that was almost as worse to me. I’ve traded one form of isolation to another form of isolation, let’s see if this door leads to greener pastures. sorry mods for the OT rant.

Hey, I wish you all the best - also, don't worry, a lot of things will blow over with time. As long as you don't change behaviour and stick to the "it's not real" or better "it won't be real for a looooooooooong time" line you will find it is ok. If anybody asks specifics, stay vague.

So for you, and everybody else who is in the situation of not being able to talk: find folks online and use a handle that can't be traced to you. Rather talk to some internet strangers than to folks that know you IRL. Personally, I don't find that too hard: there is work stuff I don't discuss at home, and there is Tesla investing related stuff that I don't discuss anywhere but here. The TMC family is great. Use us if need be, but protect your own life. Good luck!

im just glad that my 'other' (TMC) family are 99% wealthier than me so they accept me for who i am!

That's where I find comfort, too. TMC is great and while it seems that folks here are trading multiple tens of millions in their portfolios, I haven't seen anybody being judgemental about a poor measly Million USD of Tesla shares.

I love it - thanks to the TMC community and cheers to all the longs!!

 

[ABCTG]

Ok, not to pick on Lycanthrope, but it’s time to fess up. Who owns Jan21 80c ($400 pre-split)? There are nearly 52000 of these still open. These, and a bunch of other strikes around that level, are really messing with max pain. Clearly many traders are holding onto some serious gains, probably just waiting for them to be exercised. That’s 5M shares from that strike alone, which a bunch of somebody’s must sell. Man would I love to have been lucky enough to buy those calls a year or two ago.

I panic sold out of EVERYTHING (including TSLA )in March/April, except for one SEP '22 1800 CALL that cost $3,000,

managed to buy back most of my TSLA stock in the $600-$700 range pre-split

After the split sold 2 of my 5 (now SEP '22 360 CALLS) and bought 100 TSLA shares. So my cost basis for those 100 could be considered to be $1,200 or $12 per share.