Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[H Mak]

My Model 3 just got its 2020.48.12.1 update and it reminded me how far ahead Tesla is

 

[Rarity]

if Tesla can maintain it's 50% CAGR, then it only takes 3.3 yrs to go from 3 TWh/yr to 20 TWh/yr capacity (people don't 'get' exponential growth).

And people don't calculate exponential growth either.

Rather, 4.68 years at 50% increase per annum.

 

[Skryll]

My Model 3 just got its 2020.48.12.1 update and it reminded me how far ahead Tesla is

Looks like just bug fixes ? When is the holiday update coming

 

[Nocturnal]

Sorry, what does he mean by this? In what sense would a company be a parent of Tesla? Would this holding company be private or public? Is there something specific Dave Lee wrote up describing this, or does it have the intellectual depth of a tweet?

It would allow all of us Tesla nerds to invest in his other companies for one thing. On the practical side, I'm sure there are benefits in reducing costs across the companies by sharing certain resources and would surely make it easier to share talent, IP, and other resources.

I'm not betting against the clear #1 preferred stock and brand of humans <45.

Met a new date yesterday (online connection). I was parking and she had texted me "oh, was that you in the Audi that just drove by?"
Me - "no, I'll be in the gray Tesla".

Spoiler alert. She loves Teslas and was very happy that I owned one instead of an Audi. I've always wondered if I should change the name of my 3 from "ICEbreaker" to "Goose".

 

[Cosmacelf]

Pre market Semi-OT
I assume this would also help Tesla with capital raises (if they ever do another) and certainly other Elon companies.
SEC Approves NYSE’s Plan for New IPO Alternative

The SEC approved the new kind of direct listing—which could help startups save on bank fees and capture more of the gains in their share price when they go public—in an order posted on its website Tuesday.

Yea! This is a great idea and will democratize the IPO process as more and more companies do this.

 

[The Accountant]

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11 shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $580.65 B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $387.63B

Mkt Cap req'd for 7th tranche ($400B) tracking Mon, Jan 11, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche. Paging: @The Accountant

The recent Market Cap climb and the significantly improved profits will bring increased CEO Award expense in Q4 for tranches 5, 6 & 7.
Some will see increased expense as bad news....but of course it's not. If Elon was not hitting his CEO Award milestones, we would all be poorer.
see my analysis here:
Near-future quarterly financial projections

 

[Tslynk67]

Jonas’s note this morning seems to be the catalyst. The push down is on really low volume. Buy with a 540 PT haha

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Of course, the sharks got their secondary and front-run the S&P to their hearts' content, now they want to play it in the other direction.

!

 

[Driver Dave]

Have some friends that totally missed TSLA.

This seems like a good area to get in before earnings.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Of course, the sharks got their secondary and front-run the S&P to their hearts' content, now they want to play it in the other direction.

!

Finance in a regulatory vacuum must just be a blast. Talk about easy money. A couple "articles" here, a few paid "news interviews" there, and boom.....millions!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Met a new date yesterday (online connection). I was parking and she had texted me "oh, was that you in the Audi that just drove by?"
Me - "no, I'll be in the gray Tesla".

Spoiler alert. She loves Teslas and was very happy that I owned one instead of an Audi. I've always wondered if I should change the name of my 3 from "ICEbreaker" to "Goose".

 

[OrthoSurg]

Have some friends that totally missed TSLA.

This seems like a good area to get in before earnings.

I have a friend who just asked me if it was a good time to buy with the 2 red days.
Don’t know when it will bounce back but told him it’s better to buy now than at $695

 

[scaesare]

For those interested in some Apple execution perspective, I HIGHLY recommend the documentary General Magic. Shocked that I'd never heard of this company or what they've accomplished. They basically invented the iPhone in the late 80's, then Apple copied it for the Newton. Fascinating stuff.

Trailer

Sorry for the OT, but I think it's illustrative of what a non-Jobs Apple effort to copy Tesla would look like.

If you lived through it, General Magic was going to be The Next Big Thing. Along with initiatives like Pink, Taligent, etc...

Heady days...

 

[scaesare]

Octo-valve on the model 3/Y has already demonstrated that DC HVAC is solved as far as heating/cooling is concerned.

OT

Spoiler: Engineering Pedanticism

For the Nth time: The octovalve was a packaging/cost/simplicity change that simply consolidated several discrete valves and their operation in to a single unit. A nice optimization, but it didn't introduce any new or novel functionality. Just like the Superbottle.

Heat pumps (which is what WERE introduced in the new car models that gained efficiencies) have been around forever in home, and incorporated to other cars previously.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If you lived through it, General Magic was going to be The Next Big Thing. Along with initiatives like Pink, Taligent, etc...

Heady days...

I could not believe the level of innovation I was watching. Most disruption is just a tweak of existing technology with 5-10% pure new innovation, like Amazon or even Tesla. These people literally created a "working" iPhone from nothing, with no frame of reference....in the 80's! The level of vision to even start and commitment to at least complete the laboratory portion of execution blew my mind.

What's really sad is our current day version of these innovators work in finance, looking to shave microseconds off information exchange and create a 0.0000006% better algo-bot. Changing that dynamic should be considered a national imperative.

At least we have Tesla attracting the half of the best-and-brightest who are less wealth focused.

 

[scaesare]

The only reason some people think Tesla is good at software is because they are competing with incompetents (i.e. auto OEMs).

What they have done adequately is security (albeit running on a closed hardware system with no third party software), software updates (again on their own hardware with no third party software), and UI (at least I think so, but others disagree). And none of it is more than adequate. Their web page is borderline awful and bugs never get fixed that I can see.

No, you really don't want to see Tesla entering other markets where software matters much. It's not their strength.

What we have to hope is that they do a bang up job on AI software for vision and training. So far it's looking pretty good after several false starts. And that the robot controller software is either done by somebody good or that Tesla is good at it. Hard to tell from outside.

We already know that the software they say they have built themselves for running the customer care portion of the business is borderline awful. It's been years now since it has been good, and even then (2014-15) it wasn't very good. There is essentially no chance that you can talk to a Tesla person one day and have another Tesla person pick up where they left off with you on another. It will get better only when Elon decides it matters to him, at least that's what it looks like to me.

The mistake many people make is lumping "software" together.

The skills and engineering necessary to do embedded systems and device control work is vastly different than what is needed to code an ERP system. Ask a great web developer how to write a hardware device driver for an OS and you'll probably get a blank stare.

It's akin to suggesting that Apple isn't good at "hardware" because the Pippin tanked...

Tesla's vehicle platform software is very well done. As are the car embedded controller systems. And their FSD stuff. However their customer service platform may suck. Those are assuredly entirely different teams.

 

[joh01652]

Looks like the great push down continues pre market this morning. *sigh* I shouldn't be surprised but it just seems there is a big element that really wants to see Tesla fail.

Oh well, still long. Just gonna grab another cup of coffee.

Dan

Ya another waste-of-money dip—got family in for holidays, sold TSLA to 3 family members, one also bought TSLA and a Y like mine. The good word is spreading/accelerating

 

[BornToFly]

WHAT IS HAPPENING?!?

 

[AlMc]

I got my heads-up from @AlMc in early September. It was trading at approx. $16 then. I bought a bit but later sold half for a small loss because I didn't think it was ever going to amount to anything. Was prepared to sell the other half but it keeps going up.

Thanks for the 'shout out'. I hope others got into QS as well even though it is struggling today in the $115 range. A battery company with JB involved, even as only an advisor looked good to me. never mind the other big names backing it.

 

[Compton]

Looks like just bug fixes ? When is the holiday update coming

It says "unwrapping present" when installing. Could it be contained in the update and become activated on Christmas Eve?

 

[agastya]

SPY and XLY did add TSLA on 12/18 at 695$