Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Edit: it is really suspicious that the leaks are to Gali, you would expect Apple leaks to be to a dedicated Apple site (who have the contacts) or to a major news organisation (which have the reach).

That is a very good point. Now, if you wanted to spread fear in the Tesla community, that's probably exactly what you would do.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That is a very good point. Now, if you wanted to spread fear in the Tesla community, that's probably exactly what you would do.

This reaks of him being paid to spread FUD. Being that he is an OG Tesla Bull...i wonder what tipped the scales for him. First the bitcoin suggestion to Elon and now this...

 

[Knightshade]

This is what I find BS.

Everyone thinks Nio/Xpeng/GM/Audi/Fisker/Lucid whoever whatever can do what Tesla do easily
When apple enters the chat that has zero experience with car manufacturing or manufacturing of any kind..they instantly think they can overtake Tesla with nothing more than a business plan.

It still baffles me that everyone thinks Elon Musk's top engineers are nothing but a bunch of third class Dollar Tree product manufactures.

I think part of the problem is for the most part when a new Ford ICE vehicle comes out, the engineering isn't much different from when a new Chevy ICE vehicle comes out.

I mean, little bits around the fringes... but nothing that'd make you think one company couldn't have built the other car just by having made slightly different decisions along the way.

So folks assume the same is true on EVs, and it's really not.


That said- I wouldn't lump folks like Lucid in there... they appear to have a legit no-crap decent Model S competitor.

Now, it might not be all that competitive by the time they're shipping them in numbers, especially if the refresh rumors pan out on the S... but it's way closer than anything a legacy company has produced so far.

 

[Knightshade]

Several Twitter posts about an upcoming announcement - Seems like too much enthusiasm for just a Christmas update i.e. new Yule Log. I think it could be FSD...

Probably waypoints.

Tesla finally catching up to Garmin circa 2004

0.00% chance it's FSD in the sense of actual L5 driving.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This reaks of him being paid to spread FUD. Being that he is an OG Tesla Bull...i wonder what tipped the scales for him. First the bitcoin suggestion to Elon and now this...

So they think Tesla investors should be scared by a car and new battery tech that may come out on a small scale somewhere in 2024-2025, when Tesla will be churning out millions of cars, coming out of Gigafactories that produce at least several TW of incredibly cheap batteries per year?

Right.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So they think Tesla investors should be scared by a car and new battery tech that may come out on a small scale somewhere in 2024-2025, when Tesla will be churning out millions of cars, coming out of Gigafactories that produce at least several TW of incredibly cheap batteries per year?

Right.

Yeah...i don't get Gali these days....He was def an original tesla bull...but his recent actions have been somewhat questionable.

 

[Zaxxon]

Yeah...i don't get Gali these days....He was def an original tesla bull...but his recent actions have been somewhat questionable.

He was approximately in middle school when the OG bulls invested...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

He was approximately in middle school when the OG bulls invested...

Gali is 30 years old now....When would you consider an OG bull investing? in 2000?

 

[Maitri982]

10 minutes in and it sounds too much like he's looking for a narrative to weave together a bunch of disparate bits of info. He says Apple poached Doug Field back from Tesla for a large sum of money. From Bill Wright's recent Twitter comments, sounds more like Doug was underperforming at Tesla and jumped ship.

*shrugs*

Also he seems to greatly underestimate the effort to integrate a whole new battery pack into an existing ev design. Is not like you buy lucid and say "here use this battery" and 3 months later you are shipping the car.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think we should move the Apple / Lucid discussion to this thread:- Tesla BEV Competition Developments

This point in my post is possibly relevant for this thread;-

One plus for Tesla and new entrants like Apple/Lucid is ICE car companies are about to start drowning in red ink, they will be forced shutter some factories and a "fire-sale" of some assets is very likely.

IMO this is completely different to GM and Toyota stripping machines from the shuttered NUMI plant, car companies can't redeploy the equipment, they have nowhere to store it and they may need cash desperately.

Tesla can value factories as "land and equipment", someone like Apple may be prepared to pay more.

Should Tesla buy a shuttered factory, they don't need to use that that equipment on that site.

There are 2 separate questions:-

1. Can Tesla use some of the equipment?
2. Can Tesla use the factory site for something?

 

[jerry33]

Gali is 30 years old now....When would you consider an OG bull investing? in 2000?

Perhaps he was held back a few years.

 

[neverdone]

He was approximately in middle school when the OG bulls invested...

I am trying to figure out what "OG" means.
The FAQ: TSLA Investor Discussions has definitions of many acroymns, but not this one.
I have my own list; that I plan to add to the master list at some point.
I asked my wife, she said, "Oh God".
google says "incredible exceptional"; maybe that is what this means.
still not sure.

 

[Criscmt]

PSA - next year's calls are cheap right now, as I think the prevailing wisdom is that Tesla is going to calm down a bit. But you can get some good (not outrageous) returns without a great deal of risk, for example:

Jul 16 '21 expiration
500-550 Bull call spread (IV ~65%)
Cost: $28.50
Pot Ret: 75%

If you think it's unlikely the stock trades below 550 in July, there's a 75% return over 7 months. That's not bad, though just holding stock could potentially beat it (but would require an $1100+ SP).

The 550-600 spread for July is a double (cost of $25). March is a bit less of a bargain, but if you're willing to wait until September, there are some nice returns there too.

Those are good risk/reward if you believe we will spend the next 9 months in a 600-900 range (which I think is likely). Maybe not as exciting as the $1k calls that I see people donating to, but I'll probably add a few such positions as I deleverage over the next couple of weeks. As always, not an advice.

Can you share which tool you use to search for such options?

 

[WattsHappening]

I am trying to figure out what "OG" means.
The FAQ: TSLA Investor Discussions has definitions of many acroymns, but not this one.
I have my own list; that I plan to add to the master list at some point.
I asked my wife, she said, "Oh God".
google says "incredible exceptional"; maybe that is what this means.
still not sure.

I believe OG is Original Gangster.

 

[mickificki]

For those who follow Rob Maurer :

 

[Phobi]

Gali has always seemed like the mega-emotional play on Tesla (up or down). I’m sure he’s done some research, but his background seems to be in finance.

In general with regards to any TSLA news, I’ll stick with the mild-mannered yet ultra-reliable filter that is Rob Mauer

 

[Todd Burch]

Theory on what the “really cool” thing could be:

It’s possible that the FSD beta code that has been released to the public is quite a bit behind the cutting edge code. In fact, this would make sense that the latest capabilities don’t even go to the beta testers until it’s been tested quite a bit internally.

What if the really cool thing is that a significant portion of that new functionality gets pushed out with the next beta update...or that the additional functionality is so good that it can be released wide?

Would be cool. To be clear I think FSD Beta *as we’ve seen it* is not ready for wide release yet (too many issues to be left to reckless hands) but maybe the unprotected left turns and other things are addressed in this unseen branch?

Or perhaps it is significantly improved visualizations...

 

[Duffer]

Since we're after hours...

My WAG regarding the "really cool thing" will be waypoints and improved visualizations. As much as I would like to have even a bit of the FSD Beta features to play with, I agree that from what I've seen posted by the beta guys it's not ready for the rest of us yet.

 

[Mike Smith]

It looks like Gali is being played. Lithium Titanate does not have a high energy density, almost useless for car batteries. At 47 Wh/kg that is 20 kg/kWh or 2 tonnes for a 100 kWh battery (that is just the cells so the battery would be considerably heavier).

I don't doubt that Gali has seen an Apple battery pack, but that is easy, hundreds if not thousands of battery pack designs will have been made worldwide by now. What is much harder is to make one which is cheap and easy to manufacture and works well in a vehicle, you cannot tell that by looking at it (an engineer might spot obvious flaws, but Gali is not an engineer),

312 cells per pack for a 10 Ah cell at 2.4v is 7.5 kWh

Lucid are a small scale manufacturer, sure Apple could buy Lucid, but that does not give them a large scale manufacturer.

Edit: Lucid have a car just about to enter production, adding Lidar, other sensors and a suitable computer would require a complete redesign, so it is not an easy way to get data from consumers for self driving training.

Edit: it is really suspicious that the leaks are to Gali, you would expect Apple leaks to be to a dedicated Apple site (who have the contacts) or to a major news organisation (which have the reach).

Edit: Lucid have a large Saudi investment, probably not in the Saudi's interest to sell their stake at any reasonable price to Apple.

Gali may have seen a picture of Apple's battery pack .. but I found a picture of Tesla's phone!

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Wed, Dec 23, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Locks in $645"

Traded: $21,316,652,977.03 ($21.32B)
Volume: 33,191,122
VWAP: $642.24

Close: $645.98 / VWAP: 100.60%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $620 (N/C from Tue)

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.562677%
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $612.325B / $210.954B = 290.26%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11 (SEC Filing)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11 shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $586.50 B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $391.01B

Mkt Cap req'd for 7th tranche ($400B) tracking Fri, Jan 08, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 56.5% (56th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 58.3% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.32% of Short Volume (45th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

Comment: "Technical support at Mid-BB; Bounce to 10-Day Moving Avg (again)"

QOTD: @mongo "You remember incorrectly."

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!