Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Coolio2000]

This thread on this very site: Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA
And this one too: Options trading strategy/advice
There is also a thread on "newbie" options in the Investor section, but it eludes me at the moment.

Thanks!

 

[kbM3]

Did he take it down yet? @Lycanthrope has been on my ignore all day. It was distracting.

Is it still up? He is on ignore past few days. Was a distraction.

Yes I put @Lycanthrope on ignore as well.

I’m willing change that if anyone tells me he changed his avatar back.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Yes, those same people also spread the refresh rumor. But really, the drop off should have been expected since the X/S that sold the most was the 75 kWh battery option because it was more affordable. Almost all the people who purchased the 75 kWh battery were really not X/S customers to start with, but they were Tesla customers. Had the 3/Y been available they wouldn't have even looked at S/X.

Could be — when I bought my 70D in late 2015, I wanted a Tesla, an S seemed perfect (size, hatchback, moonroof) and the larger batteries weren’t worth $20k+ for a bit longer range. I still prefer the S to the 3, and haven’t had a chance to ride in a Y yet. I may transition to a Cybertruck, or keep both. Market research on this would be interesting.

 

[elasalle]

.

Yes, I did read your post. simply saying that it is not a hard software job is pretty solid evidence that you don't know much about grid management and dynamic grid supply algorithms. For a beginners view of Autobidder and grid management in a complex sourcing environment this QCon presentation gives a decent idea:
Tesla Virtual Power Plant

Anybody who's actually dealt with high precision, high accuracy near realtime multi-source, multi-use software systems knows that telecomm switching is a decent example of the 'easy' side of such systems. The hard ones have highly variable source, response times, transmission loss and highly variable transmission node capacities. Traditional highly refined grid management systems have worked on multi-minute response times because nothing could respond in smaller units of time.

The true transformational consequence of Autibidder within grid management was shown in the very first deployment, when nobody at all outside the Tesla team actually knew, so the Hornsdale Power Reserve (HPR) it astonished everyone:
Tesla big battery defies sceptics, sends industry bananas over performance - Energy Post
There is copious technical and non-technical information about this. In 2017 almost nobody thought wind power or solar power could become practical anytime less than two decades away. Within weeks of HPR a sudden failure proved the amazing capability of Autobidder with battery storage:
Tesla big battery outsmarts lumbering coal units after Loy Yang trips

That accomplishment has spawned the worldwide rush to install grid-level battery systems and the massive project to replace peaker plants as soon as possible with batteries plus Autobidder.
Several traditional grid management suppliers are devoting huge resources to trying to replicate Autobidder. TE is working flat out to increase supply and regularly replaces the world's largest battery storage plant with another one, Moss Landing ready to take that mantle within the next month or two.

So, if not "...particularly hard" then reusing first stage rockets is not really too difficult nor was using a jillion laptop battery cells to power a car. It all seems easy when somebody manages to do the impossible.

I don't want to give you a hard time, nor anybody else. I'm simply astonished by the degree to which many people minimize accomplishments they don't understand. Some such people also say that the Apple M1 chip is nothing special. It is very easy to assume that things which work so easily must be also easy to do.

That complacency is why only SpaceX figured our reusable rockets, and only a couple competitors, none major, have managed to replicate the accomplishment. That is probably why the 'simple' battery powered car hasn't really worked well for anybody other than Tesla, but they're now learning.

FSD is a harder job than grid management not so much because of software complexity but because the consequences of edge case failure are so dramatically bad. Methodologically the problems are closely analogous, error tolerance is the difference.

Frankly we all need to understand the practical effect on software design that results from a rise in fault intolerance and a fault-tolerant system. The complexity does not actually change, but the accumulation of edge cases and incorporation of those into as system becomes a wearisome arduous effort of data collection and labeling.

If we had a perfect world one person would have the genius of solving the mundane exemplified by Jeff Bezos coupled with the genius of solving the insoluble that is Elon Musk. In the meantime Tesla will be brilliant but with inconsistent customer service, very infrequently needed and irritating when it is.

So some fo us will ignore shortsellers because we know Tesla will continue with making impossibly large presses that allow eliminating dozens of parts each, making batteries more durable and making factories doing things never before seen, but largely invisible to typical users who think it's all mundane.

Securities analysts, even bulls, think Tesla is a car company.

Just an OT thought, but due to the distributed, federated nature of AutoBidder, could Tesla create an AutoChatter - enable cars in the same location/locality to talk to each other. An extra feature/sense if you will to further augment AI.

~ cheers!!. Happy Holidays

 

[WattsHappening]

Well, that was a pretty entertaining (short) week of trading. Basically ended up where we began (comparing to Monday opening SP). But given the initial drop and subsequent recovery the last 1.5 days of trading, the typical expected Santa Claus rally, and near term events such as Q4/2020 P&D and earnings report, I really like our short term outlook.

And of course our long term outlook couldn't look better.

Merry Christmas to those of you who celebrate it and Happy Holidays to all!

 

[Curt Renz]

Bloomberg - 3 hours ago:

 

[Mo City]

Bloomberg - 3 hours ago:

I think Apple choosing Tesla as an EV partner is about as likely as snow in Houston during July.

 

[Stretch2727]

So ATH 'real' closing?

Yep agree. I don't consider the $695 last Friday close a real price even though I sold some shares at $695 and bought more back at $630 this week.

Just index funds being stupid with other people money. Thinking about it more, my guess the reason they did not average in over time was mainly due to the ETF's tied to the S & P index. Likely they are not able to manage an active mix of stocks in these normally very fixed weighted ETF's. Not sure and pure speculation on my part.

 

[Tslynk67]

Something to watch will be the daily average volume. Now that more of the float is “locked” away I expect the average volume to start trending down. So in that sense 20 million shares for half day of Christmas Eve trading is nothing to laugh at.

Edit: The 3 month avg volume is 45 million so 22 million ain’t too bad for a half day.

For reference, this time last year: $426.25 close and double the volume...

 

[Tslynk67]

In Switzerland you don't pay capital gains tax as long as you don't qualify as professional trader, i.e. it's tax-free if you just HODL common stock but not when you trade/long-term own options).

Same principle in Belgium - for personal accounts you mustn't be a "professional trader", but in practice this is impossible to prove/police, so private accounts just aren't taxed unless it's something really obvious.

 

[JustSaying]

OT

Spoiler: Mele Kalikimaka

Great stuff..
We will be there on 1/16.
When the boys were young we used to go there on 12/ 25 ( after Santa came) and come back after New Years. The company had a 3 bedroom apartment at the Hilton on Waikiki from 1965 to 2000.
The other times of year my visits were for business and not much fun , but Christmas and New Years on the Islands are special.

 

[Tslynk67]

Can you recommend a good place to learn about covered calls, and a good strategy applied toward TSLA?

Thanks!

Covered call strategy (not an advice, of course): sell them when IV is high and the SP is on a rip. Pick a strike date within three months, not too long, take a strike price that you're OK to sell at - consider the premium plus the strike in this decision. If IV gets crushed, or SP drops, rebuy or buy shares with the cash.

If your shares get called-away, wait for the SP to dip (maybe it won't, be aware), then sell puts at or below your previous call strike.

Rinse/repeat...

Note that you can also sell covered calls against held calls.

 

[wipster]

Yes I put @Lycanthrope on ignore as well.

I’m willing change that if anyone tells me he changed his avatar back.

He changed it... too bad too, I liked the shorts...

 

[ggr]

Clearly she dropped the ball because no way we get to $900 before year end. Her $1200 by spring is now suspect. I’ll be sternly discussing this with her.

Maybe, maybe not. Qualcomm's big runup in 1999 was in the week between Christmas and New Year's day. It depends entirely on the benchmark funds, I think.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Bloomberg - 3 hours ago:

I'm not sure if it's me or not, I just woke up from a nap, but did that guy actually say anything?

 

[ggr]

Yes I put @Lycanthrope on ignore as well.

I’m willing change that if anyone tells me he changed his avatar back.

He did, but it's a trap!

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - 4 hours ago:

 

[Davidzhao365]

I have ~99% of my trading account in ITM LEAPS. IMHO, ITM LEAPS offer a great tradeoff between risk and potential reward (i.e., I sleep well at night rationalizing a low theta burn, comparably low premium for IV, expiry relatively distant in the future all combine into a rather low risk of losing all my money -- plus if something goes wrong, I can still roll out). Generally, I'm trying to lever up when the stock price is low, and lever down when the stock price is "high" (unfortunately I don't have a systematic way so going by my gut). This LEAP-centric strategy has allowed me to go ~23x since Feb.

My core LEAP position (which is not LEAP anymore however) right now is Sep '21 400 CALLs. This is already pretty aggressive for my taste with "pretty close" at the money and a "pretty soon" expiration; my plan is lever down before or after FY20 earnings, depending on whether I'll believe we have a buy the rumor type of development before the release or not.

Generally, I try to accomplish 1.5x to maximum 2x leverage compared to common stock. I found that this offers the best risk/reward ratio for my personal taste (plus I have to pay taxes on these trades so I need to achieve at least 1.3x vs. common stock for this to make sense -- in Switzerland you don't pay capital gains tax as long as you don't qualify as professional trader, i.e. it's tax-free if you just HODL common stock but not when you trade/long-term own options).

Do you have any specific questions?

Thanks for sharing! While using the LEAP strategy, did you have any bad experiences? Any risk and mitigations?

Interestingly my leverage is about 1.5x too. But to achieve the same leverage, we can do 2 methods:
1. 100% not too deep ITM leap
2. 50% shares + 50% ATM leaps

Any reason you chose the all Leap way?

 

[Davidzhao365]

Most LEAPS expire in 2-3 years. Or, that'd be holding them too close to expiration for my comfort level. Except in a taxed account, you might need to hold at least 366 days for tax purposes; another great reason to buy the latest expiring LEAPS you can.

Not advice; I know very little, this is just my likely wrong opinion.

Thanks! That makes a lot of sense. I plan to roll them every 6 to 12 month, and leave at least 12 month before expiration at any point of time.

 

[steve3]

This excellent 10 minute GS interview by Katie Koch (that Koch?!) of Cathie Wood yesterday may be a helpful access point / discussion point with family & friends whose investment viewpoints have been habitually hypnotized in a rear view mirror; who may feel confused and/or overwhelmed in a rapidly changing & evolving landscape; who may be fearful of being left behind, and perhaps feeling frozen & don’t know what to do or which way to turn.