Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

MIC Model Y looks to be ramping up nicely. I'd guess another two weeks until first deliveries.

Loading bays are slowly filling up

There's a bunch more Ys waiting to be tested - and painted in many colours

Even more running around the test track

A lot more a wrapped up in the staging area

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Wow, that's at least 182 model Y built. They are getting close to deliveries.

 

[AlMc]

And the strike price needs to be the same or higher...

Simple example, I hold 20x June 2022 $250 strikes, I could sell against those $1275 strikes, for the same date and pocket $150k in premiums, right now.

Of course this limits your upside on the initial trade to $102,500 per contract, but on 20 calls you'd still net over $2m profit. The gamble, of course, is that the SP is well above $250 by that time, which seems likely, but below $1275, which it may not be, but might.

I've never actually made such a trade myself, but I'm pretty sure it would be considered as realised gains by my accountant, not sure.

As a full fledged member of the 'Theta group' I have been successful putting a 'theta strangle' on TSLA the last couple months. Pick an SP where you believe TSLA will migrate to on a weekly (usually) or longer basis and sell puts (cash covered..I don't do margin) and Covered calls that are equal dollar distance from your target SP.

If the SP moves a lot faster away from your target SP then move the option to a similar premium another week out and collect the entire premium of the other end of the 'strangle'.

I still hold a good number of shares and some 2023 Leaps but the strategy above gives me income along the way

**All trading done in tax free account**

 

[Buckminster]

Wow, sure is quiet here on this thread. Quiet on the streets irl as well for a Friday. Market seems to be closed also. Anyone know why?

Everyone celebrating Brexit I guess.

 

[jw934]

Bugger, was hoping my $617.50 put would get exercised early, no such luck

Thank you for sharing this. Sold 2 @6.20 (and received $1240) after seeing your post. Was hoping for exercise too. Merry Christmas!

 

[cyclingthealps]

Merry Christmas everybody.

Short interest decreased in the period from 11/30/2020 (share price $567) to 12/15/2020 (share price $633)
The short amount still increased, due to the rise in share price!

• Shares shorted from 46.500.000 to 45.280.000
• Float shorted from 6,13% to 5,96
• Amount shorted from $26.365.500.000,00 to $28.641.897.500,00

This is again very different from what Ihor reported https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1340031937436672002

Even though shorts are covering the short amount keeps increasing and we have the highest short amount since I started tracking in September 2020.

Overview of the short interest from the last few months:

 

[OrthoSurg]

Today was far more green than I expected, so I decided to close things out (mostly). I sold the 2500 shares near the close, for $662. So my potential $237K profit ended up being $168K. Can't complain.

I also sold the 590 calls for $74 with TSLA at 662. Profits of $192 over a month, so no "endless bounty" but that's what happens when there's no spike. The 690s I'm holding on to just for the hell of it. Selling them for ~$10K isn't worth it and while unlikely, it's certainly possible that TSLA can get over $700 next week on anticipation of the P&D report and whatever other excuses there might be (e.g. FOMO, window dressing, good macros, Elon tweets, ...). Maybe I'll lose less on the position!

Anyway, this whole inclusion bet has worked out pretty well. I mean aside from the fact that I was (and remain) mostly out of the market due to concern over the political situation surrounding the transition. That decision has so far proven to be very expensive.

if you think you loss money staying aside, imagine Warren Buffet :X

 

[OrthoSurg]

Spoiler: OT: Apple discussion

The other side of this coin is that Apple's devices all work together much more seamlessly than competitors. This is a major part of their success. Every person I've known to switch from Android to Apple realizes this after the switch.

And yes, many times their devices are more expensive than competing devices, but you do buy something with that expense: a polished experience, an emphasis on privacy, and excellent local service and support, amongst other things. I know if I have a problem with my Apple device I have multiple local locations I can take it to receive service. No dealing with mailing in my device if I don't want to.



Absolutely I can. Their devices receive free feature and security updates longer than any other competitors and given that a car has a longer lifespan I can see them going 8+ years as Tesla does now.

In my view one of the similarities Apple shares with Tesla in that people still believe FUD related to Apple that is almost completely disconnected to the reality of their products and services. Another similarity is that, as a person that tracks both areas (EVs and mobile phones/consumer electronics) heavily, I recommend both Tesla and Apple if anyone has to ask. They are both leaders in their markets for very good and deserving reasons and both are recommended by me without a second thought to competitors.

Both Tesla and Apple have legitimate issues, but be wary that just as FUD spreads about Tesla, the same is also true for Apple.

All that being said: I believe the Apple Car rumors are simply FUD meant to counterbalance the S&P 500 inclusion event. For an Apple Car, I'll believe it when I see it from Apple directly.

MKBHD just did his annual review and Apple won in 3 categories on 6
IPhone 12 Mini for the best small cellphone
iPhone 12 Max for the best camera
iPhone SE had honorable mention for best budget phone that brings high end technology to lower entry point.

I think it is one of the best recent years for iPhone release. With the MacBook A1 chip too, I will be keeping my AAPL shares a little bit longueur instead of selling them to buy more TSLA.

I’m happy with my 20 TSLA: 1 AAPL ratio

 

[ammulder]

No one can compete with Tesla on price for what you get. And that is Tesla's real advantage and it's likely to grow, not shrink because Tesla is just starting to optimize production. The Ford will find some buyers because there are always people out there that don't understand how handicapped the Mach-e is vs. the Model Y or maybe they like the way the Mach-e looks. But that's not what it means to compare favorably in "most competitive measures". A porky lower range car for thousands more simply won't entice that many buyers.

I came away thinking the "most competitive measures" in question were appearance, price, and acceleration/handling. The reviewer seemed to think the Mach-E was a better-looking vehicle, with comparable acceleration and handling, and a lower price due to the $7500 federal tax credit. They also seemed to think the infotainment was plenty good, by discounting the "toys and games" in a Tesla. (Probably because they didn't have kids in the car while stuck at the Target charging at 1 mile per minute!)

Anyway, I am guessing most Mach-E buyers will be more swayed by how awesome it is in comparison to a Ford ICE car, and less aware of how the total weight or powertrain efficiency compares to a Model Y.

 

[jbcarioca]

MKBHD just did his annual review and Apple won in 3 categories on 6
IPhone 12 Mini for the best small cellphone
iPhone 12 Max for the best camera
iPhone SE had honorable mention for best budget phone that brings high end technology to lower entry point.

I think it is one of the best recent years for iPhone release. With the MacBook A1 chip too, I will be keeping my AAPL shares a little bit longueur instead of selling them to buy more TSLA.

I’m happy with my 20 TSLA: 1 AAPL ratio

Those of us who have been long AAPL and TSLA through very 'thick' and 'thin' times must be very happy now.
My two new M1 Mac Mini and new iPhone 12 Max Pro prove to me that technological progress from Apple is suddenly making huge leaps. In my opinion the new Apple chips are truly transformational.
TSLA, too has again matured with AutoBidder and multiple use-case-specific cell chemistries as well as previously impossible castings, and so many other things.
Today we in my household are grateful for those two companies for their products changing our lives for the better and their shares making us more financially secure.
FWIW, I have received a handful of thanks from colleagues who have taken my investment advice during the last few years.

The past is not necessarily prologue to the future but both of these seem consummately well positioned.
You gave a short AAPL list. Here is my 25 December 2020 TSLA list:
1. Autobidder+stationary storage has Moss Landing soon to complete, and so much more;
2. GF Austin has multiple floors visible one one building plus multiple press foundations, etc;
3. GF Brandenburg is developing so quickly that some assembly equipment already is visible inside buildings, appearing likely to begin production within a few months, they're already hiring...;
4. Some production 4680 cells is under way, the demo line "the 10th largest cell line is the world";
5. FSD progress is clearly evident;
6. Model Y is already in production in Shanghai;
7. EU imports fo China-built Model 3 are getting excellent reviews.

And the lists go on. As Seasonal good cheer goes, these can help us feel optimistic even as politics might make us depressed, and...
Quite a few vaccines are now in production, so there is hope even though we'll have horrors before vaccines arrive in force. There are even excellent vaccines now being distributed that work without exotic cold and are cheap, although those are going to places that have good relations with the Russian and Chinese developers, not much chance for the USA.

All in all there are some excellent reasons to be optimistic about 2021. No hard Brexit, prospects for US environmental progress and humane policies.

Probably not coincidently my blood pressure is lowered and exercise habits have returned. It's as if the perspective of the time of my birth (just after VJ Day, for those who know what that was) is replicating itself in January 2021 with the soft Brexit, US government and vaccines all happening together with all the TSLA, AAPL, SpaceX news.

Finally to be optimistic again!!

 

[jbcarioca]

As we think about advantages of Texas for Tesla we cannot forget a giant opportunity:

Texas proving that clean energy is quickly replacing fossil fuels

 

[TravelFree]

I'm proud of my young age! Original Gangster investors, eh? OK, whatever.

When I see these cryptic abbreviations, I do a google search and most times they add proper meaning. Sometimes like OG the context makes no sense.

Therefore when I see someone using OG, I imagine what is in their mind rather than what the official meaning is:

What has worked best in these posts if "Old Guard." or "Original Guard" This was a term I heard when I was much younger to mean a person with strong convictions for many years.
"Old school" doesn't make sense. Not only is school not spelled with a G but old school would not be EV, rather it would mean ICE.

So that's my contribution to the group today. OG = Old Guard or Original Guard

Merry Christmas

 

[RubberToe]

Latest Giga-Shanghai video shows 143 Model Y Christmas presents all wrapped for Mr. Claus to deliver to those who have been good...

The 2021 China Model Y ramp is going to be epic.

 

[Johan]

The 2021 China Model Y ramp is going to be epic.

A big AGREE to this. Even though the numbers are out in the open; all the data about the production capacity of the factory, and the demand in China and the rest of Asia etc. it still seems like mostly everyone is severly underestimating the potential of this market. So many people are stuck in the past where "Made in China" ment poor quality. And a lot of smart people have no clue what at beast the Chinese economy is and how many new millionaires and affluent middle class people are being created over there every year.

 

[Sanny]

Sorry for on topic.
I was thinking about those S&P500 benchmarked funds and the affect of them buying and the following scenario crossed my mind: if a fund doesn't understand TSLA and doesn't want to buy it, but at the same time doesn't want to be left behind the BM, it could be a great strategy to buy every time it goes below $695 and sell every time it goes over. Sounds like a very logical trade to me and I started to think maybe to match it with my trades (even though I forgot where is the sell button). On the other side - it is hard to do when there are doezens of funds trying to implement the same strategy, they might overshoot quickly.

 

[saniflash]

Thanks for sharing! While using the LEAP strategy, did you have any bad experiences? Any risk and mitigations?

Interestingly my leverage is about 1.5x too. But to achieve the same leverage, we can do 2 methods:
1. 100% not too deep ITM leap
2. 50% shares + 50% ATM leaps

Any reason you chose the all Leap way?

Good question, and I gave myself a good time to think about it (thanks for invoking this reflection). I appreciate that as an emotional being I'm driven by fear and greed, the latter manifesting itself mostly as FOMO. I try to get better at managing my emotions around investing (and I made a lot of progress this year thanks to regular meditation and experience), but sometimes it still gets the better of me.

My subjective feeling is that e.g., a portfolio of 100% 300 Jun 22 CALLs (not sure what exactly I need to buy right now to achieve 1.5x leverage -- I'm closer to 2 right now) is "safer" than one of 50% common stock and 50% 650 Jun 22 CALLs. Why? I don't know. Maybe I'm kind of a burn child due to the long sideways movement of the stock since I've been invested in it (2017-2019) (veteran forum members will laugh me out the room given that this phase was not 2 years but much longer).

Thought I'd share my call selling in case you found it useful:
Use 100 leaps as an example that you're long.
Every Monday I sell 20 otm calls at a strike that is 30% higher than the current share price. The expiration will be 32 days out.
I also sell 20 otm calls at the highest avail strike. The expiration will be 32 days out.

The goal is to generate cashflow by selling theta, but minimize the risk of having to give up any core shares. So using this example of 100 leaps I want to have enough buying power utilizing margin to purchase enough shares in case any of these calls gets exercised. I divide 100 by 5 and get 20 (the number of calls I sell). I divide by 5 so that I have a max of 100 sold calls at any given time.

On the off chance the stock takes off I should be able to use margin to buy enough shares to satisfy the 100 exercised calls sold at strikes 30% above current share prices. I am a bit more aggressive by selling an additional 20 calls at the highest avail strike because I believe there's a less than 1% chance they are exercised.

I prefer to sell 20 at a time weekly rather than 100 monthly (or any other time frame) to take advantage of any changes in theta. (Ie. Selling at IV of 66% one week only to miss out if IV increases to 90% over the next two weeks).

Additionally since I have shares and leaps I figure the total long calls or equivalent that I have and divide by five to come to a number of options to sell. 1000 shares and 90 leaps would be equivalent to 100 leaps in regards to this strategy.

Many thanks for sharing @Blue horseshoe , highly interesting and helpful. One of my main fears (here's that word again) is that my core shares or LEAPS are getting called away and I'm not able to participate in the "unlimited" upside of both positions (FOMO!). This strategy seems to be a great answer to this challenge.

Unfortunately, I currently don't have margin at IBKR when trading through my LLC as it's 100% LEAPS. I'm planning to set up a fund in the BVI that looks like a normal hedge fund from the outside, and merge my 2 accounts together in it to be able to trade the entire portfolio tax-free (and legally). Then I should be able to use the margin provided by my core position to have enough cushion to absorb the hedging. (if I understand correctly you hedge by going long the underlying once it breaks the strike price and are at risk for it to get called away).

Thanks for sharing!

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Good question, and I gave myself a good time to think about it (thanks for invoking this reflection). I appreciate that as an emotional being I'm driven by fear and greed, the latter manifesting itself mostly as FOMO. I try to get better at managing my emotions around investing (and I made a lot of progress this year thanks to regular meditation and experience), but sometimes it still gets the better of me.

My subjective feeling is that e.g., a portfolio of 100% 300 Jun 22 CALLs (not sure what exactly I need to buy right now to achieve 1.5x leverage -- I'm closer to 2 right now) is "safer" than one of 50% common stock and 50% 650 Jun 22 CALLs. Why? I don't know. Maybe I'm kind of a burn child due to the long sideways movement of the stock since I've been invested in it (2017-2019) (veteran forum members will laugh me out the room given that this phase was not 2 years but much longer).



Many thanks for sharing @Blue horseshoe , highly interesting and helpful. One of my main fears (here's that word again) is that my core shares or LEAPS are getting called away and I'm not able to participate in the "unlimited" upside of both positions (FOMO!). This strategy seems to be a great answer to this challenge.

Unfortunately, I currently don't have margin at IBKR when trading through my LLC as it's 100% LEAPS. I'm planning to set up a fund in the BVI that looks like a normal hedge fund from the outside, and merge my 2 accounts together in it to be able to trade the entire portfolio tax-free (and legally). Then I should be able to use the margin provided by my core position to have enough cushion to absorb the hedging. (if I understand correctly you hedge by going long the underlying once it breaks the strike price and are at risk for it to get called away).

Thanks for sharing!

I have stop orders in place to purchase the number of shares that will be called away at a price $5 below the strike price. So for example $650 strike call options I'd sold were hedged with a buy order at $645. You're in a tax free account so this next part doesn't apply to you, but I also have my account setup to highest cost instead of the default first in first out so that the assigned shares show minimal profit.

 

[gene]

7:45 here on the West Coast. Merry Christmas to all here on TMC. It's been a looooooong year!

 

[tezzla]

7:45 here on the West Coast. Merry Christmas to all here on TMC. It's been a looooooong and prosperous year!

FTFY

 

[gabeincal]

Is it just me, or is the Tesla app looking different this morning after summoning the car.....