Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Didn't Tesla continue deliveries remotely the last three weeks of Q1 2020? It was a production shutdown forced by Alameda County. Of course, since Tesla has always sold every car they produced, this would translate to fewer sales in 2020.

Seasonality of car sales has been a "thing" with autos as long as I can remember. I think Tesla sales/production might smooth this historic trend out a little but I doubt it's ever going away.

When hard lockdowns were put in place in March(not just in US, but around the world), Tesla was unable to deliver. Everything here in Seattle was shut down...no deliveries were happening at all. They hadn't yet switched over to remote deliveries on a wide scale like they did in Q2. On the Q1 earnings call, they openly said Q1 could have matched Q4 2019 if they had been able to deliver as they normally would have.

Edit: After reading through the Q1 earning calls transcript, they state that they were unable to deliver roughly 14,000 vehicles worldwide related to Covid. They delivered 88,400 vehicles still in Q1. So they could have delivered 102,400 vehicles had it not been for Covid. In Q4 2019, they delivered 112,000 vehicles. They also state in that earnings report that their order book was higher all throughout Q1. So it means production was still the bottleneck, not seasonality demand. When you take into account that production was stopped for 3 weeks in March which would have meant they could have produced and delivered more in the US, its not unrealistic to think they could have matched Q4 2019 if covid hadn't existed

 

[JRP3]

I missed a bunch of posts around the time when the compare tool was mentioned, so this may have been discussed, but does anyone else see a $1500 lower price on the compare page vs. the ordering page?

I see the same thing, $1,500 lower on the compare page. Same difference with the 3 as well.

 

[jerry33]

I missed a bunch of posts around the time when the compare tool was mentioned, so this may have been discussed, but does anyone else see a $1500 lower price on the compare page vs. the ordering page?

Delivery charge included or not included.

 

[Boomer19]

thinking about elon’s level 5 confidence over the coming year, and disregarding what city/states approve and don’t.

how do we think about this? i think much of the below is mostly conservative (maybe vehicle cost is generous?)

a frame/body 30x rolled steel autonomous transport vehicle for 1 to 6 passengers? maybe 4-12 passengers?

since local urban trips do they build them with 50kwh packs? if so the production vehicle cost around 15k to tesla? hub stations to store and maintenance them and charging is kind of a wildcard depending on city, tesla service/center presence, etc.

would the routes be predetermined stops within a given city (like bus) or is it riders exact destination choice? if bus, can they even do that or would city transportation authorities prevent such an arrangement?

most of the trips between .5 and 5 miles?

trips cost individual rider between $1-$10?

a thousand of these vehicles giving avg of 30 individual rides per day of $3 per instance is about 30k per vehicle per year.

30m revenue per 1k cars (sans cost of prod and infrastructure etc)

the point is i’m lowballing it a lot i think. and they could probably produce 10k of those types of vehicles in a jiffy, which in lowball terms is 300m rev per year

the idea being cheap rides incentivize cleaner transpiration...hence the lowballing

but 100k of those vehicles operating in cities across the world is a few b in revenue annually

now expand that to longer rides across more ground at higher cost (burbs and airports, etc), stronger demand and a few hundred k transport vehicles and even something conservative and understated like above can become a very lucrative business as it scales.

has anyone else have different points of view on this or care tinkering with the numbers ?

i know much has been said about TN but trying to imagine a simple model at the onset and then how it may progress

any thoughts appreciated

 

[jerry33]

When hard lockdowns were put in place in March(not just in US, but around the world), Tesla was unable to deliver. Everything hear in Seattle was shut down...no deliveries were happening at all. They hadn't yet switched over to remote deliveries on a wide scale like they did in Q2. On the Q1 earnings call, they openly said Q1 could have matched Q4 2019 if they had been able to deliver as they normally would have.

Although my car was delivered touchless in March.

 

[KMCC]

I trust your intentions are good (absent evidence to the contrary) and that you spend energy to research and write these articles because you want the world to transition to sustainable energy as rapidly as possible.

With due respect to you, I question however, the method you have chosen in this article.

The article uses the words “lie” and “cheat” multiple times while referring to Volkswagen. Once one party has branded (explicitly or otherwise) the second party as lying or cheating, the second party is no longer available for influence. A line has been drawn with the two parties on either side of it doing battle with each other rather than working together to solve a problem.

As people who want a world with sustainable energy, I believe we have to show more empathy and a generosity of spirit when interacting with third parties who are not bought in to the concept. For instance, I don’t know how committed I will be to the concept of sustainable energy if I was a Volkswagen employee who is dependent on each paycheck to put a roof over my family and feed my children. Volkswagen (and other ICE manufacturers) have this real and practical issue to deal with regardless of how many other fake / imagined issues they might raise as explanation for slow transition to sustainable energy.

My first point above - an inclusive and empathetic approach to highlighting issues - is 90% of the weight of my comment, such weight as it might have. I wish to add though that I find the article incomplete. It does not provide the data on how the lower dealer incentives affected the sale of electric vehicles. If Volkswagen had undertaken the direct marketing expenses (bypassing the dealer) to create enough demand for all their electric vehicle production, then they are production constrained. The dealer’s role is mere fulfillment of pre-existing demand in which case the dealer incentive will and should justifiably be lower. In fact, this could be an encouraging sign that Volkswagen is incrementally making the dealer irrelevant and increasing direct interaction with the customer.

J

Volkswagen lied and cheated for years and should be called out as much as possible.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Although my car was delivered touchless in March.

See my edited post above. Tesla states in Q1 earnings, that 14,000 vehicles were unable to be delivered due to covid. I'm not saying no touchless deliveries were made in Q1 2020. I'm saying Covid related closures directly effected how many they were able to deliver in the final 3 weeks of March.

 

[jerry33]

has anyone else have different points of view on this or care tinkering with the numbers ?

Larger kWh storage systems (to avoid confusion cell size vs. total capacity) charge quicker and last longer. Put in a "just enough" and the car will need replacing in a year or two of commercial use.

 

[Darkfox021]

Delivery charge included or not included.

The Design page shows the list price (before destination charge) $1500 higher than the compare page.

 

[sonofjorel]

Happy New Year to all!

A bit off topic but might be helpful to some. I know there was talk about margin rates and I think it was in this thread since this is the thread I read most frequently. I could be wrong though. Ameritrade has high margin rates with a base lending rate of 8.35% in my account. I called this week, said that Interactive Brokers has a rate of 1.59% and Robinhood has a rate of 2.5%, and asked if my rate could be lowered. I didn’t suggest that I would leave for another brokerage, just asked nicely for a lower rate. My rate has been updated to 2.5%.

 

[Artful Dodger]

100k Orders in 10 hours for MiC Model Y:

"Tesla: Big News Out Of China & Outlook For 2021" | Solving The Money Problem w.SMR

(Model Y segment begins at 8:40)

 

[ZeApelido]

But you said $1200 in the "other thread". Why did you become more bearish in the space of a few hours?

Hormones

 

[printf42]

I’ve had the stock for many years and now it’s approaching 10% of my portfolio. I was thinking about selling 25% of the position. Why does Elon keep saying it’s overpriced?

I encourage you to sell the 10% then short it 15% to make it up to the 25% in your mind.

Just kidding, welcome!

You will find most here hold 90% to 150% TSLA and will not sell anytime soon, unless Starlink IPO tomorrow.

 

[Unpilot]

Design Your Model S | Tesla

Plaid is ready for order...what!!

MUST NOT ORDER.

 

[Buckminster]

Design Your Model S | Tesla

Plaid is ready for order...what!!

MUST NOT ORDER.

Delivery late 2021. Same interior shown.

 

[brianhn1]

Was doing a thought experiment today and I think Tesla Energy will follow the disruption of Tesla Auto sooner than anyone expects.

1. I might be dumb but I think the can be regional power shortages in the near future. Will utilities be successful to deploy/acquire energy sources quick enough when the significant increase of Tesla Autos entering the market requiring energy will exceed their power grid's capacities? We are already starting to see Tesla Solar/Solar Roof/Powerwall demand skyrocket in areas with high energy costs and intermittent outages.

2. Do power grid operators have the propensity to go the way of legacy auto (eg. bankruptcy, move away from ICE)? People are going to demand cheaper/zero emission/more reliable electricity so likely many Tesla Solar/Solar Roof/Powerwall installations will reach critical mass. Eg. My current power utility is still +50% natural gas powered and they have billions in debt with gross mismanagement on infrastructure upgrades (sounds familiar? GM, Ford, etc.) that I don't see them going to majority renewable energy sources in the near future.

3. If utilities go bankrupt because they can't maintain their infrastructure then will the regional power grids go away? I think Tesla Energy recognizes the importance of maintaining the existing power grid so much that they extensively developed Autobidder and Megapack. I can't imagine a world where the grid disappears because Tesla Solar/Solar Roof/Powerwall is not possible to every building/house/etc.

If a regional utility embraces Autobidder, Megapack, and solar sooner Tesla Energy wins. If a regional utility fails, then Tesla Solar/Solar Roof/Powerwall takes over and Tesla Energy still wins.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Was doing a thought experiment today and I think Tesla Energy will follow the disruption of Tesla Auto sooner than anyone expects.

1. I might be dumb but I think the can be regional power shortages in the near future. Will utilities be successful to deploy/acquire energy sources quick enough when the significant increase of Tesla Autos entering the market requiring energy will exceed their power grid's capacities? We are already starting to see Tesla Solar/Solar Roof/Powerwall demand skyrocket in areas with high energy costs and intermittent outages.

2. Do power grid operators have the propensity to go the way of legacy auto (eg. bankruptcy, move away from ICE)? People are going to demand cheaper/zero emission/more reliable electricity so likely many Tesla Solar/Solar Roof/Powerwall installations will reach critical mass. Eg. My current power utility is still +50% natural gas powered and they have billions in debt with gross mismanagement on infrastructure upgrades (sounds familiar? GM, Ford, etc.) that I don't see them going to majority renewable energy sources in the near future.

3. If utilities go bankrupt because they can't maintain their infrastructure then will the regional power grids go away? I think Tesla Energy recognizes the importance of maintaining the existing power grid so much that they extensively developed Autobidder and Megapack. I can't imagine a world where the grid disappears because Tesla Solar/Solar Roof/Powerwall is not possible to every building/house/etc.

If a regional utility embraces Autobidder, Megapack, and solar sooner Tesla Energy wins. If a regional utility fails, then Tesla Solar/Solar Roof/Powerwall takes over and Tesla Energy still wins.

Tesla should just buy a suitable regional grid and fix it to show everyone what can be done.

 

[Nocturnal]

100k pre orders for MIC Y. That’s amazing.

 

[brianhn1]

100k pre orders for MIC Y. That’s amazing.

Indeed.

Slight correction though, 100k in 10hr preorders. And that's on top of the existing preorders since Model Y MIC preorder opened in August 2020. Do we have a count of existing preorders before today?

 

[jerry33]

Design Your Model S | Tesla
MUST NOT ORDER.

What, no disagrees?